Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1134

#151 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/28/2013 4:51:46 PM | message detail
The main thing is the rallies fell off the main page which means less people are seeing it. I'm not expecting a steady flow at that pace, but at the same time Draven could have done more damage if his fans wanted to.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 101/135 Today's Picks: Samus and Auron
#152 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 4:55:20 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
The main thing is the rallies fell off the main page which means less people are seeing it. I'm not expecting a steady flow at that pace, but at the same time Draven could have done more damage if his fans wanted to.


That's fair, yeah. I popped my head into a LoL reddit topic just today and saw that the amount of votes (positive and negative) the rally topic got was only a fraction of what a random truly popular topic could get. There's potential for sustained monster gains, the question is if it'll materialize or not.
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#153 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 5:06:58 PM | message detail
oh look, Kanz continues to increase the ignored post count total
#154 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/28/2013 5:08:57 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Draven got as many votes as around what is expected for a 24 hour match based on 12 hour vote totals.

Of course his matches will likely have more for the other two characters than the average 24 hour match, but Draven also has 12 hours of more rallying and you could argue he let up against MMX/Ryu too.


This is worth discussing. I can maybe see the argument, but it seems like overcomplicating facts (a huge no-no for predicting trends). Draven's rallied votes dwindled as the poll went on. Usually we attribute this to the voter pool being exhausted, not to the people driving in votes deciding to call it a day. So why aren't we doing that here? We certainly know Draven is going to pull in more than 50k rallied votes in a 24 hour match, but that's an entirely different story from assuming they will behave even remotely similar to our votal shifts when going from 12 to 24 hour matches. Something like 65 to 70k seems reasonable maybe, but not more than that.


Yeah, you make a good point there.
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#155 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/28/2013 5:10:11 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
oh look, Kanz continues to increase the ignored post count total


Says the person who has yet to add anything of value to this conversation. *ignore time*
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#156 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 5:12:54 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
oh look, Kanz continues to increase the ignored post count total


Says the person who has yet to add anything of value to this conversation. *ignore time*


Dravenchat?
there's not much to discuss there really, unless one of these counter-rallies actually materialize in full force

something more immediately relevant: Dragonborn or Yuna for 2nd
#157 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/28/2013 5:14:57 PM | message detail
My stance is the only way Draven loses is if people decide not to rally for him.

As for Yuna/Dragonborn predicting how SFF is going to go is like rolling a dice. There are examples of FFX holding and getting crushed by SFF
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 101/135 Today's Picks: Samus and Auron
#158 | tgs2 | Posted 8/28/2013 5:21:15 PM | message detail
Charizard > Bowser > L-block > Auron > Sonic

Sonic is finished
#159 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 5:23:55 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Says the person who has yet to add anything of value to this conversation. *ignore time*


here's an irony post
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#160 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 5:56:24 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Says the person who has yet to add anything of value to this conversation. *ignore time*


here's an irony post


whatever /squallpost
#161 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 5:57:21 PM | message detail
#162 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 8/28/2013 5:58:21 PM | message detail
Isaac > Ezio because Isaac almost got 40% on L-Block while Ezio is getting 36%
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#163 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 6:00:29 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
spoilers I wasn't talking about you


yeah I know

.....

*continues imitating Squall anyway*
#164 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 6:09:32 PM | message detail
Are we still on this RallyFAQs discussion? Can't we talk about something more productive, like how beastly this makes Isaac by assuming L-Block isn't at all stronger in multiways
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#165 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 6:10:04 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Are we still on this RallyFAQs discussion? Can't we talk about something more productive, like how beastly this makes Isaac by assuming L-Block isn't at all stronger in multiways


This is a great result for Barret, too, by proxy...!
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#166 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 6:12:27 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Are we still on this RallyFAQs discussion? Can't we talk about something more productive, like how beastly this makes Isaac by assuming L-Block isn't at all stronger in multiways


you mean LeagueFAQs
#167 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/28/2013 6:21:38 PM | message detail | (edited)
Snake gets 72.51% on Auron, more than what Cloud got in 2003, take SFF into account and Snake is going to 60/40 Link
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 101/135 Today's Picks: Samus and Auron
#168 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/28/2013 6:23:42 PM | message detail
I'm just seeing this match for the first time. Can someone explain what happened here? Did L-Block have some kind of rally shenanigans, or is this just another case of "this f***ing contest"?
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#169 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 6:24:34 PM | message detail
#170 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/28/2013 6:26:12 PM | message detail
Some nice vote totals in this match. L Block looking good.
#171 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/28/2013 6:35:28 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
A little bit of both.


That's so weird. The principle of diminishing returns seemed to hit Missingno HARD, and yet L-Block is beasting here.

I feel like this format is good for joke characters. There's just something really funny about seeing a Tetris block in a yearbook, complete with quote. This might be the only time since 2007 that the joke's felt fresh.
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#172 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 6:36:54 PM | message detail
We'll see what Missingno does against Squall. It can still do something similar to this.
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#173 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/28/2013 6:54:10 PM | message detail | (edited)
TheCodeisBosco posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
A little bit of both.


That's so weird. The principle of diminishing returns seemed to hit Missingno HARD, and yet L-Block is beasting here.

I feel like this format is good for joke characters. There's just something really funny about seeing a Tetris block in a yearbook, complete with quote. This might be the only time since 2007 that the joke's felt fresh.


I'm kinda confused as well - L doesn't look like it's so much as even fazed, whereas Missingno almost went and pulled a wtfmassive choke job against Tidus. WTH happened with Missingno...?
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#174 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 6:55:03 PM | message detail
Again, wait a couple of days, guys. If Squall goes out and flattens Missingno, then we can consider L-Block to be the exception.
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#175 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 6:55:56 PM | message detail
These vote totals are crazy! 33.4K with 2 hours left!

The Luigi/Big Boss match finished with 34.2K votes, and was at 30.3K at this same time. Last Wednesday's match, Bowser/Sub-Zero/The Boss, was at 28.6K at this time and finished with 32.4K.

Looks like L-Block had a pretty huge rally out there.

Which is also the only thing that explains the trends - L-Block has always been the opposite of a rise-to-heaven FF7 type character, he's always fallen-to-hell.

Yet here he's CRUSHING the vaunted FFX SNV. Like, ridiculously bad. That just shouldn't be happening.

Whatever rally L-Block got here, outside of Draven rallies this is way off the scale from what we normally get.
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#176 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/28/2013 6:56:07 PM | message detail
Banjo did it.

Banjo took all of Missingno's votes
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#177 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 6:58:24 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Dravenchat?
there's not much to discuss there really, unless one of these counter-rallies actually materialize in full force

Counter-rallies won't do anything at all.

The only thing that can stop the reddit rallies for Draven is voting them down early and killing their momentum before they get a chance to be viewed on one of the main pages.

Which Luster said he'll try to do. And if anyone can pull that off it's Luster. It's a faint hope, but it's the best we got.
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#178 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/28/2013 6:59:57 PM | message detail
Well this is just stupid
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#179 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/28/2013 7:02:07 PM | message detail
If Auron wasn't stuffing at a rate of 2-1 this wouldn't have even been close
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#180 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/28/2013 7:13:21 PM | message detail
http://www.reddit.com/r/4chan/comments/1lacyn/lblock_masterrace/

Aaaaand there's your culprit.
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#181 | pjbasis | Posted 8/28/2013 7:16:24 PM | message detail
Did that really change the fate of the match though
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#182 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 7:18:07 PM | message detail
L-Block still could've won.

It wouldn't be posting 43% hours during one of FFX's best times like it is now though.
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#183 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 7:18:28 PM | message detail
TheCodeisBosco posted...
http://www.reddit.com/r/4chan/comments/1lacyn/lblock_masterrace/

Aaaaand there's your culprit.


I knew this was gonna be a thing. 4chan doesn't have the power to decide matches without falling back on something else.
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#184 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 7:18:31 PM | message detail
Oh, and I kinda sort got the graphs partially working again. But as area graphs, not line graphs, so they overlap each other and cover up stuff. And are thus...not very useful. But it's something.

You can also choose to view them as bar graphs by passing "&graph_type=bar" to the URL. For instance this is the default for this match:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/show_graph.php?matchnum=5244&type=0&seconds=60&max=0

You can view it as a bar graph with:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/show_graph.php?matchnum=5244&type=0&seconds=60&max=0&graph_type=bar

Both options are pretty bad. However I have no idea why line graphs aren't working anymore.
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#185 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/28/2013 7:19:06 PM | message detail
I never got it, how did L-Block get into this contest/2007 in the first place instead of I-Block?
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#186 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/28/2013 7:21:57 PM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah, L-Block is winning by a large enough margin that this probably didn't affect the outcome. But it's certainly the reason L-Block's SNV has done so well against Auron's.

For reference, the 4chan subreddit is around the size of the LoL one. And "L-Block Masterrace" is one of the top entries on the front page of it.
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#187 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 7:24:34 PM | message detail
TheCodeisBosco posted...
http://www.reddit.com/r/4chan/comments/1lacyn/lblock_masterrace/

Aaaaand there's your culprit.

I have no idea how to tell if a reddit page is popular or not.

There's only 4 comments there - surely it can't be significant?

It also says on the side 394 points and 84% like it...though I can't tell if that's for this thread or the general reddit area it's posted in or what.

Can anyone familiar with reddit say whether this might have been impactful or not? Because we're talking a couple thousand more votes than what you're average day match has been getting here. A page with only 4 replies can't account for that, I would think...?
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#188 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/28/2013 7:26:06 PM | message detail
Match CII: (3) Dragonborn vs. (15) Yuna vs. (7) Tifa Lockheart

Previous Round

Dragonborn – 42.33%
Tom Nook – 29.82%
Pyramid Head – 27.85%

Yuna – 40.49%
Master Chief – 34.84%
Claire Redfield – 24.66%

Tifa Lockheart – 61.86%
Chun-Li – 26.71%
Cirno – 11.43%

Analysis

While Final Fantasy VII weakening is a concern Tifa’s performance last round looked to be an exception to the rule. She had no problems crushing Chun-Li worse than what is expected which may question the merit of a new Street Fighter character as they may not be more than fodder. Even if Tifa took a drop she should be able to comfortably win the match against another Final Fantasy girl and a character that will likely be fodder.

Yuna would have no issue winning over Dragonborn given his first round performance, but with Tifa in the poll it is possible that she could be SFF below Dragonborn. How much SFF Yuna will suffer is a bit difficult to tell. The only Final Fantasy character she has gone up against is Zack and she was able to hold of SFF quite well. However, if this turns into another Squall/Tidus situation Yuna will likely finish in last. Auron was not hurt too badly against Cloud and Sephiroth in the early days, but in four-ways SFF really showed up. If Final Fantasy voters feel Tifa might be threatened that could cause them to abandon Yuna like we have seen in four-ways.

Unless Tifa really crushes Yuna Dragonborn is going to need at least some strength in order to take advantage of the SFF. He was unable to break 60% against Tom Nook where Marcus Fenix was able to almost double him back in 2007. Of course Tom Nook may have had a boost in strength since 2007 given he has had a couple of games released, but he was barely able to win over Pyramid Head who does not have much reason to get stronger.

Using a constant Pyramid Head places Dragonborn at 34.30% against Auron which is not horrible, but it does require Tifa to pull a bit of SFF on Yuna for him to have a chance. I can see some SFF appearing, both are major female characters in their games which could attract the same fans to both characters.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Tifa Lockheart > Master Chief and Dragonborn

charmander6000’s Prediction: Tifa Lockheart – 44.73%, Dragonborn – 28.45%, Yuna – 26.82%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 101/135 Today's Picks: Samus and Auron
#189 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 7:28:20 PM | message detail | (edited)
TheCodeisBosco posted...
Yeah, L-Block is winning by a large enough margin that this probably didn't affect the outcome. But it's certainly the reason L-Block's SNV has done so well against Auron's.

For reference, the 4chan subreddit is around the size of the LoL one. And "L-Block Masterrace" is one of the top entries on the front page of it.

Actually it's almost definitely changed the result. It's a lot of extra votes - and from the absurd way that L-Block is beasting the SNV, the large majority of those are going to the block.

I mean we were in a 50/50 match going into the SNV with a character that weakens as the match progresses, vs. a character from a series with one of the best SNVs.

And yet this SNV is just a slaughter in the opposite direction. So yeah, I don't know where this rally is coming from, but it's almost definite that Auron would have won without it. Probably easily.
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#190 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/28/2013 7:34:02 PM | message detail
The image linked in the reddit post was clicked on almost 9000 times, apparently.

http://imgur.com/pWxFo21
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#191 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/28/2013 7:44:05 PM | message detail
And the number just jumped by nearly 3000 since I last posted that.

I'd say it's pretty popular!
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#192 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 7:48:28 PM | message detail
quick, let's all invade the gamespot series contest
reddit screwed with ours, time to screw with someone else!

watch someone type up paragraphs about how I'm a bad person for wanting to do that
#193 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 8/28/2013 7:50:40 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
quick, let's all invade the gamespot series contest
reddit screwed with ours, time to screw with someone else!

watch someone type up paragraphs about how I'm a bad person for wanting to do that


<paragraph>*insert words here*</paragraph>
#194 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 7:51:16 PM | message detail
Blah, why can't this reddit site have better taste? L-Block is cool and all but...it's Auron!!

1337gamerpr0 posted...
quick, let's all invade the gamespot series contest
reddit screwed with ours, time to screw with someone else!

watch someone type up paragraphs about how I'm a bad person for wanting to do that

Hey man, Launchpad McQuack is a much more legit champ than freakin' Draven.

At this point, Gamespot actually has more credibility than us!

Who thought that would ever happen.
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#195 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 7:52:22 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Hey man, Launchpad McQuack is a much more legit champ than freakin' Draven.

At this point, Gamespot actually has more credibility than us!

Who thought that would ever happen.


....whatever
#196 | pjbasis | Posted 8/28/2013 7:53:32 PM | message detail
I wish rallies were always this small
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#197 | pjbasis | Posted 8/28/2013 7:54:55 PM | message detail
Also gg squall he always got the short end of the gunblade
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#198 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 8:10:58 PM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah, judging from that reddit thread and the constant threads going up on /v/ to a lesser extent it's pretty conclusive Auron would have won without outside interference. No such thing as a rallyless GameFAQs Contest, though, so you should keep that in mind for the future!

Edit: And yeah, if it's replicated again Samus is gonna be in for the fight of her life and possibly lose even easier than this. She doesn't even have the capability of crushing Tifa like Auron is Ezio, so FF7 might end up dragging her down too much to recover. The irony.
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#199 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 8:13:56 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
TheCodeisBosco posted...
http://www.reddit.com/r/4chan/comments/1lacyn/lblock_masterrace/

Aaaaand there's your culprit.

I have no idea how to tell if a reddit page is popular or not.

There's only 4 comments there - surely it can't be significant?

It also says on the side 394 points and 84% like it...though I can't tell if that's for this thread or the general reddit area it's posted in or what.

Can anyone familiar with reddit say whether this might have been impactful or not? Because we're talking a couple thousand more votes than what you're average day match has been getting here. A page with only 4 replies can't account for that, I would think...?


The LoL thread for Draven had something like 600 votes tops. So...yyyyyeah, take that as you will.
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#200 | pjbasis | Posted 8/28/2013 8:14:02 PM | message detail
Lol Wolf, and damn Samus' ninepack was weak as f***

Blue - 6.21’
Fox - 5.69’
Drake - 4.49’
Pac-Man - 4.17’
Mr. G&W - 2.48’
Lee - 2.32’
Steve - 2.08’
Meat Boy - 1.44’
Wolf - 1.00’

Samus - 6.61’
Knuckles - 2.28’
Sandbag - 1.82’
Catherine - 1.79’
Neku - 1.71’
Celes - 1.51’
Isaac - 1.22’
Seifer - 1.15’
Vaas - 1.00’
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