GameFAQs Contests

No, it doesn't work like that. If you run a poll for 7 days, by the 7th day you are getting very little normal votes still coming in. Because everyone's already voted. Conversely, the 1st day of the rally is going to be by far the most powerful.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

if you people keep responding to Kanz I will put YOU on ignore too

seriously people

LeonhartFour posted...

stop doing this

Yeah, stop using logical arguments to defend your position!
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64

LeonhartFour posted...

stop doing this

just another reason this contest needs to be put out of its misery
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX

Not_Wylvane posted...

Yeah, stop using logical arguments to defend your position!

yes it is pointless to use logic in an argument with a troll

that's the idea
---
http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif

Kanz may be a troll, but as long as he uses rational arguments, I don't mind him.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

red sox 777 posted...

Kanz may be a troll, but as long as he uses rational arguments, I don't mind him.

well then, better start caring

L Block shoots straight to 300.

The finishing blow
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Then00bAvenger posted...

L Block shoots straight to 300.

The finishing blow

It was over a long time ago! Auron had that one brief moment when he shot ahead where if that pace was kept he could do it. Once that ground to a halt the match was over.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX

charmander6000 posted...

So Mario just loses by less, big deal.

At which point you need a much smaller push of votes in the right direction to reverse the result. Let's assume Draven pulls in 50k again and that the finals match is Draven/Snake/Mario. Snake scores 15% of the GameFAQS vote (possibly less but let's assume he holds up averageish). Draven does likewise. Mario gobbles up the remaining 70% of the GameFAQS vote (which is let's say, 30k?), which means he starts with a 21k cushion. Now split the rally votes by something like...let's say 55% Draven, 37.5% Mario, 7.5% Snake (I will freely admit I am pulling this number out of my ass because we don't know what Snake does in the face of a rally). Draven has 32k votes adding up his GameFAQS fanbase and his rallied voters. Mario gets 39750 votes. Someone else can adjust the math for the dwindling number of extra voters coming from the rally as the day goes on based on Draven/Ryu/MMX and the amount of votes each contestant gets from GameFAQS' natural 24 hour votepool, but I think the point is made. If Mario is actually as hard to rally against as he was in GameSpot's contest, he has a very legit shot at winning everything that Link doesn't have.
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

Again Mario loses by less, no way they will stop until Draven is at least ahead.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 101/135 Today's Picks: Samus and Auron

red sox 777 posted...

No, it doesn't work like that. If you run a poll for 7 days, by the 7th day you are getting very little normal votes still coming in. Because everyone's already voted. Conversely, the 1st day of the rally is going to be by far the most powerful.

And this invalidates my point how? You're gonna have to walk me through this one. Mario got subjected to a super strong rally too and he never folded as badly as Link, ever. I'd have to trawl archives to see what his percentage was at the end of Day 1, but I'm positive it was never even remotely as bad as what Link was pulling in while the rally was ongoing.

(Speaking of which, do we know circa which stats topics the GameSpot contest happened? I'm sure someone posted numbers there, the trick is finding them.)
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

Oh boy 2 back to back matches of the best character in a match losing. How fun.

Just for the record I mean this match and the one taking place right after it.
---
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9

L-Block has gained nearly 100 votes in its lead in two updates.
---
"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

swordz9 posted...

Oh boy 2 back to back matches of the best character in a match losing. How fun.

Just for the record I mean this match and the one taking place right after it.

Hey, don't feel so bad Swordz. Yuna might acquit herself nicely by the end of her match!
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

The USA is red now. We're doomed. The commies have taken over
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Your math has Mario getting well over 80% on Snake. That's insane. Even on the day of the 2007 final, Link only got 71% on Snake. When Link was already way stronger than Snake naturally- like, at least 60/40.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

I'd rather the match just not take place, but I've already accepted these contests will never have a winner I like or care about. It sucks to see your favorites go out so early though especially when they lose to garbage.
---
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9

red sox 777 posted...

Your math has Mario getting well over 80% on Snake. That's insane. Even on the day of the 2007 final, Link only got 71% on Snake. When Link was already way stronger than Snake naturally- like, at least 60/40.

Let's revise that then, shall we? Let's assume Snake gets massively, massively abandoned and his natural strength vanishes...so Mario doubles him. Draven scores 15% of the normal pool, Mario gets 56%, Snake gets 28%. Dropping the amount of rallied votes going to him as well to 30% (so Draven 55%, Mario 30%, Snake 15%), Mario gets...31800 votes. To Draven's 32000. Even with pretty bad circumstances for Mario, his loss is only a 200 vote affair. You're telling me this upset isn't possible? That GameFAQS can't wake up, put up 50k votes over 24 hours and let Mario take home the win? I don't buy it. It's possible it won't work. It's very, very possible. But to say Mario has no shot is a lie. He has one, and I'll be working hard to make sure he comes through with a win.
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

Votes totals appear to be a little above the Aeris/Shepard match at the moment.

I'm sure it's not because of extra rallied votes or anything.
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

You think people will rally? We can't even get people to rally for Link properly and after Draven 60/30/10 the poll everyone who wasn't demoralized will be.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 101/135 Today's Picks: Samus and Auron

Draven was apparently getting 85-90% of the rallied votes against 2 popular characters, even with Mario he isn't going to drop to 55%
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 101/135 Today's Picks: Samus and Auron

Draven voters might come out in such high numbers that they could add a little game with their rally if they wanted.

"If Draven is comfortably ahead, vote for Shepard instead to put Link in last"

In fact, they should do that to crush everyone's hope even further.
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

I'd almost be okay with Draven beating Link if they pushed Shepard into second while they're at it.
---
http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg

charmander6000 posted...

You think people will rally? We can't even get people to rally for Link properly and after Draven 60/30/10 the poll everyone who wasn't demoralized will be.

I've got people who actually know how to properly give a damn in on this already. The board can cry, ***** and moan about the death of the contests and stick a thumb up its collective ass for all I care. If both Draven and Mario get to the finals, I will have already won, no matter who is crowned champion. At that point, all that will be left for me to do is support my favorite character in the world to win the character battle, which I'm going to do as best as I can, thank you very much.
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

And this invalidates my point how? You're gonna have to walk me through this one. Mario got subjected to a super strong rally too and he never folded as badly as Link, ever. I'd have to trawl archives to see what his percentage was at the end of Day 1, but I'm positive it was never even remotely as bad as what Link was pulling in while the rally was ongoing.

(Speaking of which, do we know circa which stats topics the GameSpot contest happened? I'm sure someone posted numbers there, the trick is finding them.)

Okay. Vote intake declines as the match goes on, because more and more visitors have already voted. I don't know what the daily intake was in the Gamespot contest, but I can make a guess that will illustrate the point. Suppose Link/Gordon go 50/50 and their vote intake declines 30% a day:

Day 1: 20000
Day 2: 14000
Day 3: 9800
Day 4: 6860
Day 5: 4802
Day 6: 3361
Day 7: 2353

Now Gordon gets a rally on Day 7, and wins that day 85/15. If he's getting 100% of the rallied votes (for math simplicity), that means there needs to be 15687 rallied votes. Notice that if he got the same number of rallied votes on day 1, he only wins that day with 64%.

And since the first day of rallying is the most powerful, because as the days go on, more and more people being summoned have already voted, that 64% will go down further as the match progresses.

Add in that Mario could be stronger naturally than Link on Gamespot, and it's hard to say conclusively that he has more resistance to rallying at all. The number suggests that he probably does, but it's not going to be anywhere near the 30% you cited. More like 10% max.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

Then00bAvenger posted...

Draven voters might come out in such high numbers that they could add a little game with their rally if they wanted.

"If Draven is comfortably ahead, vote for Shepard instead to put Link in last"

In fact, they should do that to crush everyone's hope even further.

inb4 they screw up and Shepard beats Draven
Shepard>Draven>Link, best result

Watching Link turn Shepard into turbofodder was going to be the best part of that match.

if that is ruined too there will truly be nothing of value in that match
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX

charmander6000 posted...

Draven was apparently getting 85-90% of the rallied votes against 2 popular characters, even with Mario he isn't going to drop to 55%

We just went over this, Char. Gordon Freeman pulverized Link 85-15 while he had a super rally going, but that same character, one day later, with the same backing from his own company, with its own enormous game service bearing a big ad telling people to vote for him, couldn't come even close to that on Mario and was much closer to even. I really need to find the GameSpot contest Stats and Discussions...if my hunch is correct and at most the split was 60-40 in Gordon's favor during the worst of the rally, I like Mario's chances.
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

KanzarisKelshen posted...

charmander6000 posted...

You think people will rally? We can't even get people to rally for Link properly and after Draven 60/30/10 the poll everyone who wasn't demoralized will be.

I've got people who actually know how to properly give a damn in on this already. The board can cry, ***** and moan about the death of the contests and stick a thumb up its collective ass for all I care. If both Draven and Mario get to the finals, I will have already won, no matter who is crowned champion. At that point, all that will be left for me to do is support my favorite character in the world to win the character battle, which I'm going to do as best as I can, thank you very much.

Kanzcer
---
For your SuperNiceDog.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza

I've got people who actually know how to properly give a damn in on this already.

Sure you do ;)
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 101/135 Today's Picks: Samus and Auron

Whatever happened to that Mewtwo rally you claimed you had inside info on?
---
"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.

I'd give a damn if you had gotten Yu Narukami a super rally to the finals or something.
---
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9

let's talk about a more productive topic.

any topic.

Yuna v Dragonborn who ya got
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX

Dragonborn looked pretty bad, but SFF should hurt Yuna there, probably. Wouldn't be surprised if Yuna was second.
---
tune in tokyo 142.94

KanzarisKelshen posted...

charmander6000 posted...

Draven was apparently getting 85-90% of the rallied votes against 2 popular characters, even with Mario he isn't going to drop to 55%

We just went over this, Char. Gordon Freeman pulverized Link 85-15 while he had a super rally going, but that same character, one day later, with the same backing from his own company, with its own enormous game service bearing a big ad telling people to vote for him, couldn't come even close to that on Mario and was much closer to even. I really need to find the GameSpot contest Stats and Discussions...if my hunch is correct and at most the split was 60-40 in Gordon's favor during the worst of the rally, I like Mario's chances.

Here is a simple explanation. In Link Vs. Gordon Freeman, the amount of non-rallied votes that the match received each day gradually decreased as time went on. Something like this for example:

Day 1: 20,000
Day 2, 12,000
Day 3: 9,000
Day 4: 7,000
Day 5: 5,000
Day 6: 3,000
Day 7: 2,000

The amount of rallied votes that Gordon Freeman got was let's say 10,000 on Day 7. That means that roughly 83% of the votes during this "rally period" came from rallies

The following day the Finals match with Mario starts. This match also gets 10,000 rallied votes on Day 1. However, if Gamespot votals are still 20,000 for Day 1, than that means that only 33% of the votes on Day 1 came from the rally. As the days go on *both* non-rallied and rallied votes die off, meaning that in this "rally period" only 33% of the votes came from rallies. Assuming that rallies and non-rallies die off in equal numbers, but you get the picture.
---
"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.

Relative to Pyramid Head in 2007 Dragonborn gets around 35% on Auron, should be enough to take second.

That is if Pyramid Head remained constant.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 101/135 Today's Picks: Samus and Auron

ZFS posted...

Dragonborn looked pretty bad, but SFF should hurt Yuna there, probably. Wouldn't be surprised if Yuna was second.

Yeah, immediately after Dragonborn's awful showing I took Yuna without thinking. But with SFF, I don't know. Probably going to stick with Yuna though.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX

Something tells me Yuna should manage to hold up pretty well.
---
tune in tokyo 142.94

Strong characters like Luigi, X, Auron were all given the boot whereas weak characters like Blue, Sephiroth, Shepard get to advance to the next round.

What a joke.
---
Zinsanity of the Helix Board

Yeah, I'm banking on Yuna not folding entirely. If she does, Dragonborn should take it. But this is all on gut feelings, I haven't even bothered looking at any stats.

More worried about the so-called "new square (but not zidane) deboost" here.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX

ZinsanityCraze posted...

Strong characters like Luigi, X, Auron were all given the boot whereas weak characters like Blue, Sephiroth, Shepard get to advance to the next round.

What a joke.

Dont worry. Auron will be back stronger than ever next contest.
---
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMcwhStCYAAr-mC.jpg
Dallas Cowboys and Mavs

red sox 777 posted...

And this invalidates my point how? You're gonna have to walk me through this one. Mario got subjected to a super strong rally too and he never folded as badly as Link, ever. I'd have to trawl archives to see what his percentage was at the end of Day 1, but I'm positive it was never even remotely as bad as what Link was pulling in while the rally was ongoing.

(Speaking of which, do we know circa which stats topics the GameSpot contest happened? I'm sure someone posted numbers there, the trick is finding them.)

Okay. Vote intake declines as the match goes on, because more and more visitors have already voted. I don't know what the daily intake was in the Gamespot contest, but I can make a guess that will illustrate the point. Suppose Link/Gordon go 50/50 and their vote intake declines 30% a day:

Day 1: 20000
Day 2: 14000
Day 3: 9800
Day 4: 6860
Day 5: 4802
Day 6: 3361
Day 7: 2353

Now Gordon gets a rally on Day 7, and wins that day 85/15. If he's getting 100% of the rallied votes (for math simplicity), that means there needs to be 15687 rallied votes. Notice that if he got the same number of rallied votes on day 1, he only wins that day with 64%.

And since the first day of rallying is the most powerful, because as the days go on, more and more people being summoned have already voted, that 64% will go down further as the match progresses.

Add in that Mario could be stronger naturally than Link on Gamespot, and it's hard to say conclusively that he has more resistance to rallying at all. The number suggests that he probably does, but it's not going to be anywhere near the 30% you cited. More like 10% max.

Luckily, I have the numbers right here. The absolute top of the top of the top of the heap for legit matches in GameSpot's contest was Gordon/Snake. In a 130k slugfest, Gordon won with less than 200 votes of margin. By contrast, Link and Gordon pulled in 190k. Mario and Gordon, likewise. Thus it is safe to assume that 60000 votes or thereabouts were rallied by Valve, without accounting for potential shifts in voting patterns from one character getting his company's backing. Of those 60k rallied votes, Link got 9000. This was the final vote difference:

Gordon: 115698 votes (59.4%)

Link: 78980 (40.6%)

Total: 194678

Now let's remove the rallied votes. This is the 'true' result of that match, at a guess:

Gordon: 64698 votes

Link: 69980

Total: 134678

If my percentages aren't failing me, that's a 48% loss for Gordon and a 52% win for Link, or thereabouts (once I find the stats topics I'll be able to confirm if I was even close to being on the mark or not. By contrast, if we look at Mario's performance vs Gordon, what we get is this:

Mario: 85280 (44.2%)

Gordon: 107581 (55.8%)

Total: 192861

So we see a (presumably) similar number of rallied people, but Mario does far better at keeping up with Gordon than Link. Note that this entire exercise favors Link - if we assume that Link/Gordon had less votes than Gordon/Snake in the first place (very possible because Snake/Gordon was a huge anomaly that outscored a stuffed match in Master Chief/Bub and Bob - for the sake of comparison, after removing stuffing Sonic/Bub&Bob had less than 100k), things just look worse and worse for him. Mario is definitely more resistant to rallying if you consider GameSpot's contest at all admissible as evidence. Every angle you might want to try points to that.
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

xp1337 posted...

let's talk about a more productive topic.

any topic.

Yuna v Dragonborn who ya got

Yuna. I have zero faith in Dragonborn after that epic flop of his.
---
"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

So we saw that Mario is that better at resisting rallying, but it looks more like 10% than 30%. Apply that to Draven, and Mario still gets crushed. Even giving him an absurdly large victory over Snake.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

red sox 777 posted...

So we saw that Mario is that better at resisting rallying, but it looks more like 10% than 30%. Apply that to Draven, and Mario still gets crushed. Even giving him an absurdly large victory over Snake.

who are you kidding, stuffers don't change votes based on the competition
.....unless they switch all their votes to Mario to help him win
hmmmm

It's tough. Dragonborn was pitiful in R1 but sharing the poll with Tifa is one of the worst possible scenarios Yuna could have asked for. I'm leaning towards taking Dragonborn for 2nd.
---
GT: wgt07
Metroid Prime, Super Meat Boy speed runs: http://www.youtube.com/user/wgtan01

red sox 777 posted...

So we saw that Mario is that better at resisting rallying, but it looks more like 10% than 30%. Apply that to Draven, and Mario still gets crushed. Even giving him an absurdly large victory over Snake.

Let's adjust that again, then. This time, I'm assuming Snake siphons rally percentage from Draven instead of Mario because there is no point in going with worst case unrealistic scenarios. Snake gets 90-10'd by Draven. Mario gets 75-25'd. Doing this 'realistic' split, and going for the worst case scenario of Mario taking 25% of an already siphoned vote pool...

Draven: 67.5%
Mario: 22.5%
Snake: 10%

Let's maintain the proportions of the past projection while we're at it - Draven at 15% on GameFAQS, Snake at 28%, Mario at 56%. They look right for a match where LPF will be in full effect.

Draven: 38,250
Mario: 28050
Snake: 12800

Ten thousand vote difference. Note that this assumes votals don't increase at all because of 24 hour matches, finals hype, rallies or anything of the sort. All of Draven's rally power puts him 10000 votes over Mario. Going from 30k to at least 1.66 times that from 24 hour matches can't make a difference? At all? Yeah, I don't believe it. In fact, I don't think any of these numbers pan out as poorly for Mario as I've painted them, not a single one, and even then, only one, maybe two of them have to go better for Mario to pull out the win. It can be done. If there's any chance of doing anything, it will be done. Count on it.
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

Draven got as many votes as around what is expected for a 24 hour match based on 12 hour vote totals.

Of course his matches will likely have more for the other two characters than the average 24 hour match, but Draven also has 12 hours of more rallying and you could argue he let up against MMX/Ryu too.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 101/135 Today's Picks: Samus and Auron

charmander6000 posted...

Draven got as many votes as around what is expected for a 24 hour match based on 12 hour vote totals.

Of course his matches will likely have more for the other two characters than the average 24 hour match, but Draven also has 12 hours of more rallying and you could argue he let up against MMX/Ryu too.

This is worth discussing. I can maybe see the argument, but it seems like overcomplicating facts (a huge no-no for predicting trends). Draven's rallied votes dwindled as the poll went on. Usually we attribute this to the voter pool being exhausted, not to the people driving in votes deciding to call it a day. So why aren't we doing that here? We certainly know Draven is going to pull in more than 50k rallied votes in a 24 hour match, but that's an entirely different story from assuming they will behave even remotely similar to our votal shifts when going from 12 to 24 hour matches. Something like 65 to 70k seems reasonable maybe, but not more than that.
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.