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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1133
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ZFS posted... So out of curiosity what does everyone expect the NN to look like in 'tiered' form? Link Mario Snake Samus Cloud Sephiroth Mega Man Sonic Crono ...I guess. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Sonic
below MM by that much is a super wild idea. No reason to assume they're
not neck and neck with each other. I'd have to see MM kill Sonic to
believe it, at worst it's like a 55-45 affair (whereas either of them
just BURY Crono). --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. |
Snake (I believe) Link Mario Samus Mega Man Cloud Sonic Crono Sephiroth --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I
don't agree with people putting Crono far below everyone else. Pikachu
would slapped Cloud silly if there were, say, Barret in the poll. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Link Cloud (no one gets as close to Link as Cloud does so he gets 2nd here) Samus Mario Mega Man Snake Sephiroth Sonic --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
LeonhartFour posted... Big Boss > Kirby > Sephiroth All aboard the Big Boss bandwagon. --- ~ The Dilated One IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard |
Well,
after Knuckles (and Tails by proxy) have put up bad performances this
round, Sonic's gonna have to step up to the plate. I think he can, but
he's got some proving to do first. I mean, I know I ranked him down there, but I'd probably still pick Sonic > Mega Man because I'm crazy like that. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
Why on earth would they bury Crono? And I'd also be quite surprised if MM beat Sonic with more than 55%. The range of the Noble Nine has greatly shrunken. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Cloud Pikachu Barret Sephiroth Pikachu Vincent It would be a Pokeslaughter. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
KamikazePotato posted... I don't agree with people putting Crono far below everyone else. Pikachu would slapped Cloud silly if there were, say, Barret in the poll. Well, I honestly think the gap is pretty close between everyone, probably the closest it's been since the very first contest. Crono could beat anyone from Cloud down and I wouldn't be surprised. --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
KamikazePotato posted... I don't agree with people putting Crono far below everyone else. Pikachu would slapped Cloud silly if there were, say, Barret in the poll. It's not so much I think he's far below the rest, I just don't think I'd be very comfortable taking him against any of them 1v1 so I have to put him by himself. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
And
on second thought, I'd consider moving Snake to Link's tier. But will
wait until I see Snake beat down some first rate competition (that means
you, Cloud). --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Cloud's gotta get there first...! --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
Poor
Snake. He finally nears the end of his 10-year mission to overthrow
Link, and the site gives itself over to Draven and Pokemon. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Even
after the Pikachu debacle it's hard to argue with Crono's chances
against Seph. Frog got 36% against Cloud indirectly. Using Cloud/Seph's
proportion from 2010, that works out to Frog putting up over 39% on
Sephiroth. Frog being worth 40%+ on Crono indirectly would floor me, so
that makes that match very competitive. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I
think Pikachu beats Cloud at this rate. I can't see Sora stopping him,
even with Blue in the poll. Statistically it could happen, but I just
look at that poll and go "...there is no way Sora pulls this out." --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Yeah, I'm thinking something like 38/32/31. With Pikachu being the 38. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Mario on top. Other 8 below. --- The King Wang. Listen up Urinal Cake. I already have something that tells me if I'm too drunk when I pee on it: My friends. - Colbert. |
red sox 777 posted... Another way to think about it: which group is stronger, Crono/Magus or Frog/Lugia? Because Pikachu and Cloud got almost identical percentages against those 2 groups. I don't think you can compare the matches This is Pikachu against one fanbase This is Cloud against 2 fanbases Im not sure what favores who,but im positive there is a difference |
You know, depending on how this plays out, we could end up with a Big Boss/Cloud/Samus bonus poll. Or a Mewtwo/Cloud/Samus poll. Or a Mewtwo/Pikachu/Samus poll. Something weird. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Big Boss/Pikachu/Samus poll would be ideal though. BIG BOSS --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png |
Any final without Mario isn't ideal. --- The King Wang. Listen up Urinal Cake. I already have something that tells me if I'm too drunk when I pee on it: My friends. - Colbert. |
Well, Mario will be in the final, so unless we get Samus > Mario, he won't be in the bonus match. --- http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg |
Actually, we could potentially get Mewtwo/Pikachu/Charizard Things would have to play out very strangely for that to happen, but it's possible. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/874243/big-boss-o.gif |
Link Mario Snake Samus Cloud Sonic Mega Man Sephiroth Crono Think this is how I'd go right now. Snake's looked pretty great, but don't know about Link tier yet! --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
KamikazePotato posted... I don't agree with people putting Crono far below everyone else. Pikachu would slapped Cloud silly if there were, say, Barret in the poll. lol No he wouldn't. Cloud is still far stronger than PIkachu. Crono/Pikachu 1v1 would still be a close match. 45-55 at best for Crono if that. Magus made a huge difference. Barret would get SFF' Wolf o donnel style. --- http://s19.postimage.org/aosug5mrn/Persona4.png |
Don't see how people could put Snake so high when the only NNers he's beaten are Sonic, Mega Man, and Sephiroth... --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
It's so weird to think of Sonic being on the same tier as Cloud and Sephiroth. I try to imagine a Cloud/Sonic or a Sephiroth/Sonic match in my mind, and it's hard for me to picture him getting anywhere close to either of them. --- http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png |
Denzokuken posted... Don't see how people could put Snake so high when the only NNers he's beaten are Sonic, Mega Man, and Sephiroth... you know how many other Noble Niners have beaten those three Link --- http://i.imgur.com/M7vKB.gif |
Although I guess if Sonic and Sephiroth survive next round, we'll get to see what Sonic can do against Sephy. Not that it'll matter since they'll be fighting for Draven's scraps, but still. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/477513/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-1-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif |
Yeah,
it is kinda weird after years of Cloud/Sephiroth being so much better. I
feel pretty comfortable about Mario/Snake/Samus beating Clou/Sephiroth,
though. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Seriously. Let's just use some nice round numbers to illustrate the point. So the match ends with a perfect 50-30-20. No, wait, that actually does produce "normal" stats. Let's try this again... So the match ends with a 45-35-20. Character B's percentage on character A is 43.75%. Character C's percentage on Character B is 36.36%. Hence, as per the way X-stats are calculated, Character C is projected to get 31.81% on Character A. Character A's percentage on Character C was 69.23%. Hence, Character A is projected to get 44.06% on Character A. Actually, let's make it even easier, and in doing so, reveal that it's not so much "fallacy of multi-way X-stats" as "fallacy of X-stats". Character A exactly doubled Character B, who exactly doubled Character C. Now, if these were two separate results in the same 1v1 contest, the formula for X-stats would have Character C's value on Character A at 22.22% ((33.33%/50)*33.33%). But if, instead, this were a single 3-way match, then quite clearly Character A quadrupled Character C, and Character C's value on Character A is 20%. Why does this happen? Well, it's quite simple. The winner of a contest is set at 50%. Anyone who actually directly faced that winner is set at whatever their percentage was in that match. Only thing is, the winner's percentage in that match wasn't 50%. (That's why the 50-30-20 example didn't work--the winner actually was at 50%, so there was no distortion.) A potential solution is as follows, though it'll probably have some bugs of its own: Set the value of the champion to 100%. Define X-stats for everyone else as the loser's percentage over the winner's percentage times the winner's X-stat value. So using the example listed on the wiki page: In 2002, Link was the champion, and had an X-stat value of 100%. Mario faced him directly, and scored 37.47%, so his X-stat value is 37.47%/62.53% * 100% = 59.91%. Cloud faced Mario and scored 49.89%, so his X-stat value is 49.89%/50.11% * 59.91% = 59.66%. And so on. Certainly works a lot better than the current model that says that if A=2B and B=2C, A=7C/2! --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
red sox 777 posted... Poor Snake. He finally nears the end of his 10-year mission to overthrow Link, and the site gives itself over to Draven and Pokemon. Does it matter? If we assume Dravens rallies to be consistent, we can still judge Snake based on his performance vs Draven. The only good thing about dravens rallies is we know he's fodder without Reddit. So we can just judge other characters performance on each other and ignore Draven. If Snake gets more votes than link in the Dravne match..then that at least says something. Especially if Mario is in the poll...who probably has just as much chance to finish 2nd as Snake. But obviously we can't compare Link/Mario since it's an SFF blowout. ZFS posted... Yeah, it is kinda weird after years of Cloud/Sephiroth being so much better. I feel pretty comfortable about Mario/Snake/Samus beating Clou/Sephiroth, though. Do you remember the days when Seph would just brush Mario aside like he was some midcarder? Those werre the days. In all honesty, Seph shouldn't even be in the discussion. It's all about Mario/Snake/Samus against Cloud. Seph already lost 1v1 in a legit match against Snake and Snake is stronger now. --- http://s19.postimage.org/aosug5mrn/Persona4.png |
Snake
will have an opportunity to validate his strength next round (and
conceivably the round after... if Cloud makes it, bandwagoned Pokemon
will be a tougher gauge). We're looking at two very independent fanbases
in post-Portal 2 GlaDOS and the strongest Kefka we've ever seen (and
one that's going to have Laughing Kefka sprites in his pictures judging
by the early picsmithing to supercharge him even more). If Snake lays
waste to that poll like he did his first two rounds he'll very obviously
have reached the top tier of the contest. There's no excuses for his
opponents this time. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
LeonhartFour posted... It's so weird to think of Sonic being on the same tier as Cloud and Sephiroth. It doesn't pass the eyeball test for me either, but only because it's GameFAQS. Make the voter pool wider and less insular and Sonic flat out thrashes either of the FF7 prettyboys. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. |
Well,
the problem with the rallies is that they're not exclusively voting for
Draven. For the most part they are, but not exclusively. Bacon said that 75% of all site traffic to the results page in Draven's last match came from Reddit. Draven "only" got 66% of that (not counting what little he'd get from this site), so there's still a decent chunk of the rallied group who isn't voting for Draven. --- http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg |
Oh, and in unrelated news, L-Block is back in the lead. --- Guess who I am! http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs3/1345748_o.gif |
LEAD CHANGE AURON! Don't give up now! Bring out the Shooting Star! --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... LeonhartFour posted...It's so weird to think of Sonic being on the same tier as Cloud and Sephiroth. Agreed. That's what's made this contest so wonky--for once, outside forces were causing a significant change. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
LeonhartFour posted... Well, the problem with the rallies is that they're not exclusively voting for Draven. For the most part they are, but not exclusively. Do we know he did? The ony example we have of ultra concentrated rallying had the rallied character scoring 85% of the rallied voters over a character that should be very resistant to it. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. |
A small percent of that 75% might not have even voted, too. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
That's what Bacon said. You basically have to take his word for it, or this discussion is pretty pointless...! --- http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif |
TsunamiXXVIII posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...LeonhartFour posted...It's so weird to think of Sonic being on the same tier as Cloud and Sephiroth. No no, what I mean is, if the voter pool becomes 100k regularly, I can't see a world where Sonic doesn't at least keep it close to Seph and Cloud, if he doesn't upset them outright, but all three are very strong characters. It's these crappy-ass votals that are allowing stupid stuff to happen and have made for such a wonky Round 2. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. |
LeonhartFour posted... That's what Bacon said. You basically have to take his word for it, or this discussion is pretty pointless...! I believe the '75% traffic' figure, I'm just not sold on the split being 66% of those votes going to Draven. Based on the only past experience with something of this magnitude that we have, his number should be much higher. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. |
I mean Draven got 66% of the vote in the match overall. Meaning he didn't get 100% of that 75% who came from Reddit. --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
75% on traffic came from Reddit, not voted. People probably came back to see if Draven was still leading --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 101/135 Today's Picks: Samus and Auron |
Shepard won't look so bad if a decent chunk of Reddit users aren't voting for Draven. --- http://s19.postimage.org/aosug5mrn/Persona4.png |
LeonhartFour posted... I mean Draven got 66% of the vote in the match overall. The weird part of that figure is that it means that there's either a ton of GameFAQS/Reddit crosspollination (because 25% of 84000 is 21000, less than practically every match we've had), or the Reddit number was lower, but for some reason Bacon inflated it. Doesn't make much sense to me! --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. |
charmander6000 posted... 75% on traffic came from Reddit, not voted. People probably came back to see if Draven was still leading Or this I suppose. In which case the figures make more sense. This also means that the Redditors were a surprisingly loyal bunch because most everyone voting in the contests regularly refreshes the poll a bunch of times, too. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. |
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