Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1133

#351 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 12:39:52 PM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
I'm serious! Squall only just beat Auron, right? As I said, if Tifa can beat Auron by a good margin she'll just prove what quite a few of her matches have hinted at all along.


Squall beat Auron pretty comfortably and probably would've pushed 53-54% in a night match considering how decisive his advantage was in Europe.
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#352 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/28/2013 12:39:54 PM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Denzokuken posted...
If she beats Auron comfortably, she can safely lay claim to being the strongest Square elite outside of Cloud/Sephy.


Ahem.


I'm serious! Squall only just beat Auron, right? As I said, if Tifa can beat Auron by a good margin she'll just prove what quite a few of her matches have hinted at all along.


I think this is more about Tifa>Seph
#353 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2013 12:41:25 PM | message detail
I'd take Squall > Tifa, for sure.
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#354 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 12:44:22 PM | message detail
Also is it wrong that I get the feeling that Sephiroth would be losing by a lot to the Block right now
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#355 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 12:44:55 PM | message detail
Hey I'm taking Seph for third place next round so it's not THAT crazy...!
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#356 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/28/2013 12:45:30 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Denzokuken posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Denzokuken posted...
If she beats Auron comfortably, she can safely lay claim to being the strongest Square elite outside of Cloud/Sephy.


Ahem.


I'm serious! Squall only just beat Auron, right? As I said, if Tifa can beat Auron by a good margin she'll just prove what quite a few of her matches have hinted at all along.


I think this is more about Tifa>Seph


You forget that this is Board 8. No matter how badly he does, Crono is not allowed to not be the third-strongest Square character.
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#357 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/28/2013 12:45:45 PM | message detail
Greyfeld blaming Leon for being wrong in 3...2...
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#358 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/28/2013 12:46:45 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Denzokuken posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Denzokuken posted...
If she beats Auron comfortably, she can safely lay claim to being the strongest Square elite outside of Cloud/Sephy.


Ahem.


I'm serious! Squall only just beat Auron, right? As I said, if Tifa can beat Auron by a good margin she'll just prove what quite a few of her matches have hinted at all along.


I think this is more about Tifa>Seph


You forget that this is Board 8. No matter how badly he does, Crono is not allowed to not be the third-strongest Square character.


I think I take Tifa>Crono...!
#359 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/28/2013 12:49:03 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Hey I'm taking Seph for third place next round so it's not THAT crazy...!


...what.

Next round?

I understand taking him third against Draven (or Link) and Sonic (or Mewtwo), but against Big Boss and Kirby?
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#360 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/28/2013 12:49:54 PM | message detail
#361 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 12:49:58 PM | message detail
Big Boss > Kirby > Sephiroth

thank me later

I accept hugs and charitable contributions
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#362 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/28/2013 12:50:26 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...

You forget that this is Board 8. No matter how badly he does, Crono is not allowed to not be the third-strongest Square character.


I think I take Tifa>Crono...!


Oh, me too. That was a commentary on the willful blindness I often perceive as to Crono's descent.
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#363 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 12:50:36 PM | message detail
Cloud and Seph are basically only going to be favored next round because of their pedigree. People aren't grasping how spectacularly awful those performances were. Like... midcarder-esque performances.
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#364 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2013 12:50:48 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Also is it wrong that I get the feeling that Sephiroth would be losing by a lot to the Block right now


It wouldn't surprise me!
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#365 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 12:51:34 PM | message detail
Sephiroth no longer the #2 Square character. Sigh, Pikachu, I wanted to see Crono challenge Cloud.
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#366 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 8/28/2013 12:51:44 PM | message detail
I knew this would happen. I really hope Auron squeeks out a victory over this stupid thing.

Everyone is talking about something ruining these contests, but if ANYTHING truly ruins any integrity this contest might have, it's non-characters like L-block.
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#367 | xp1337 | Posted 8/28/2013 12:52:03 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Cloud and Seph are basically only going to be favored next round because of their pedigree. People aren't grasping how spectacularly awful those performances were. Like... midcarder-esque performances.

When I stop and ask myself, "Could Frog get 36% on Squirtle?" I feel a really, really deep chill.
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#368 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/28/2013 12:52:34 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Cloud and Seph are basically only going to be favored next round because of their pedigree. People aren't grasping how spectacularly awful those performances were. Like... midcarder-esque performances.


Yeah, those performances reminded me a lot of 2010...
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#369 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 12:53:01 PM | message detail
Just ask yourself this question:

Frog or Zidane, who ya got?

Because Cloud got pretty much the same percentage on Frog that Squirtle got on Zidane.
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#370 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 12:54:08 PM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
Yeah, those performances reminded me a lot of 2010...


Sorry, but 64% on Frog is a lot worse than 72% on Ridley. Cloud got a higher percentage on Ryu in 2010.
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#371 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2013 12:54:08 PM | message detail
Cloud and Sephiroth both have seemed a lot worse off than 2010.
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#372 | paulg235 | Posted 8/28/2013 12:54:18 PM | message detail
Zidane.

Squirtle > Cloud LE'S DO THIS
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#373 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/28/2013 12:55:06 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Big Boss > Kirby > Sephiroth

thank me later

I accept hugs and charitable contributions


I'll pass. If I'm going to take a ridiculous upset there I'd rather go pure favoritism and pick Kirby to win.
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#374 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 12:55:57 PM | message detail
The performance on Frog puts Cloud at a touch above Bowser right now based on direct performances. That's unreal. Assuming no non-linearity to Cloud he'd cleanly lose right now to HG/SS release Charizard.
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#375 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 12:56:39 PM | message detail
Yeah, these Cloud/Seph performances are way worse than 2010. 65% on Frog is literally less than what Crono's proportion to Frog has always been. And Crono just lost to Pikachu. Granted, he might be worth 53% in a 24 hour 1v1 match, but that's not even that much. Cloud vs. Pikachu 1v1 looks to be arguable. Pikachu.
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#376 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/28/2013 12:56:50 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
The performance on Frog puts Cloud at a touch above Bowser right now based on direct performances. That's unreal. Assuming no non-linearity to Cloud he'd cleanly lose right now to HG/SS release Charizard.


Fallacy of multiway stats in action again.
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#377 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/28/2013 12:57:01 PM | message detail
I'm just saying. All these Frog comparisons remind me of 2010 a lot as well. Cloud got 70% on Ridley in 2010 and people were calling for his head - what would you have taken Snake to get that year? 75%-80%, easily? Would it have mattered? No. Cloud still beat Snake fairly.
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#378 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2013 12:57:07 PM | message detail
Big Boss over Sphiroth would be pretty wild. Not because it's unlikely, necessarily, but just because once Big Boss got destroyed by Auron. Also, that means Snake would get... I don't know, 60/40? FFVII.
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#379 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 12:57:21 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
The performance on Frog puts Cloud at a touch above Bowser right now based on direct performances. That's unreal. Assuming no non-linearity to Cloud he'd cleanly lose right now to HG/SS release Charizard.


Fallacy of multiway stats in action again.


Stop talking.
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#380 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 12:58:05 PM | message detail
I wasn't calling for Cloud or Seph's head in 2010 despite those performances.

These are just a new tier of bad. They're vulnerable, especially with this format.
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#381 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/28/2013 12:59:22 PM | message detail
None of the old guard are safe, everyone on notice

even Link
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#382 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 12:59:38 PM | message detail
70% on Ridley suggests that Cloud is in danger against Snake/Samus/Mario. He ended up doing better than what the 70% on Ridley suggested, and beat that group. 65% on Frog suggests he's in danger against Pikachu/Charizard/Squirtle. Do a little better than that, and he still winds up at the bottom of the Noble Nine.
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#383 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/28/2013 12:59:42 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Cloud and Sephiroth both have seemed a lot worse off than 2010.


Well they completely and utterly bombed in the Rivals contest.
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#384 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 1:00:15 PM | message detail
Really, it's the format that concerns me for Cloud and Seph more than anything. 1-on-1, I think they'd be safe, especially given that next round is 24 hours.

But in 3-ways? Eh, I dunno.
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#385 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 1:01:42 PM | message detail
Another way to think about it: which group is stronger, Crono/Magus or Frog/Lugia? Because Pikachu and Cloud got almost identical percentages against those 2 groups.
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#386 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/28/2013 1:02:15 PM | message detail
I think I still take Cloud and Seph to advance once more simply due to their non-transitivity, but their performances so far have been pretty awful, all things considered.
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#387 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 1:02:23 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Big Boss over Sphiroth would be pretty wild. Not because it's unlikely, necessarily, but just because once Big Boss got destroyed by Auron. Also, that means Snake would get... I don't know, 60/40? FFVII.


If you *really* want to think about it, using Big Boss/Auron even if you give Luigi every single one of Ness's votes (and then stuff a thousand extra votes or something for him just for good measure), he still gets, like, doubled by Auron.

Year of Luigi INDEED
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#388 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 1:02:40 PM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
ZFS posted...
Cloud and Sephiroth both have seemed a lot worse off than 2010.


Well they completely and utterly bombed in the Rivals contest.


Mario boost confirmed
#389 | -Zelmor- | Posted 8/28/2013 1:04:41 PM | message detail
Just a reminder, Frog would have lost to freaking Axel without that suspicious last hour rallying. You hear me right, it's not even Riku, it's freaking AXEL. Frog did look slightly better in 2010 but then again it's really nothing spectacular.

You don't go from doubling Ryu with ease to struggling to put up a doubling against Frog! Cloud is in for a world of hurt if Squirtle receives that vaunted sunglasses pic.
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#390 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/28/2013 1:06:29 PM | message detail
Here's a really easy comparison:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3757
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5237
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#391 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 1:07:39 PM | message detail
Reminder that Cloud put up 70% on Bowser in 2003
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#392 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2013 1:08:34 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
ZFS posted...
Big Boss over Sphiroth would be pretty wild. Not because it's unlikely, necessarily, but just because once Big Boss got destroyed by Auron. Also, that means Snake would get... I don't know, 60/40? FFVII.


If you *really* want to think about it, using Big Boss/Auron even if you give Luigi every single one of Ness's votes (and then stuff a thousand extra votes or something for him just for good measure), he still gets, like, doubled by Auron.

Year of Luigi INDEED


Auron clearly Square's new champion.
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#393 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 1:08:57 PM | message detail
And remember, Cloud's and Sephiroth's bad performances STILL caught up with them in 2010! Sephiroth got trounced by Snake in a match he was heavily favored to win pre-contest, and Cloud was losing to Samus for awhile and got put in a dogfight against Snake. Stick Snake in Samus's position and Cloud probably doesn't even make it out of that match alive.

Not that it really matters that much now. Cloud and Seph would kill to be putting up 'bad' performances on the level of their 2010 caliber.
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#394 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/28/2013 1:10:08 PM | message detail
The best part is when they really start crying foul and they can't even mention 4chan as the culprit.

Mentioning 4chan on their forums is an instaban. So they all cry about "that particular site".

It's glorious.


Wrong forum, 4chan.
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#395 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2013 1:11:18 PM | message detail | (edited)
So out of curiosity what does everyone expect the NN to look like in 'tiered' form?
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#396 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 1:11:14 PM | message detail
Right, the only reason Cloud looked alright in 2010 in the end is that Link also fell by a huge amount. As a result Cloud still got his 46.5% on Link and it looked like normalcy was restored. But it was not, because the field was now right on the door of Clinkeroth, while before there was an ocean between them.
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#397 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 1:11:55 PM | message detail
Snake
Link

Mario

Samus

Cloud
Mega Man

Sephiroth

Sonic

Crono
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#398 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 1:12:18 PM | message detail
Link

Snake
Samus
Mario

Mega Man
Crono
Cloud
Sonic
Sephiroth

(Sorry ExTha)
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#399 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/28/2013 1:12:30 PM | message detail
I wonder if Crono could've beaten Cloud. Seems possible at this point.
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#400 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 1:12:57 PM | message detail
AS THEY SAY THE CREAM RISES TO THE TOP

From bottom of the Noble Nine to top of the Noble Nine

You've come a long way Snake my boy
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