Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1133

#201 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/28/2013 11:00:29 AM | message detail
Watch Auron come back to win, making L-Block's scare entirely pointless.

Whoo
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#202 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 11:01:00 AM | message detail
it's still going to keep me scared about Missingno regardless of the outcome
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#203 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:02:06 AM | message detail
What happened?When I last checked Auron was winning by like 200 votes.Man rallies at this contest are getting ridiculous.Also Draven-LBlock-Snake final?That would be awesome.
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#204 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/28/2013 11:03:25 AM | message detail
Yeah, this match is terrifying for Squall/Missingno. If L-Block can hold around 40% here, there's no reason Missingno can't do the same, and I don't see Amaterasu getting beaten down to sub-20%.
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#205 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/28/2013 11:03:28 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
it's still going to keep me scared about Missingno regardless of the outcome


You can always take back what you said before the match starts. Not that Missingno stands much of a chance against Squall though. You have nothing to worry about.
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#206 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 11:03:32 AM | message detail
Current X-Stats:

L-Block – 50.00%
Auron – 49.44%
Revolver Ocelot – 41.47%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 36.56%
Roxas – 31.74%
Palutena – 30.67%
Miles “Tails” Prower – 29.74%
Bomberman – 24.76%
Teemo – 17.02%

Oh hey it's another performance that makes Sonic Team look bad
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#207 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/28/2013 11:03:38 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
What the ****? some people here are just...wow...
Yeah because the contest is "ruined" you are going to support Draven...to ruin it even more? ok..perfect logic guys


Draven is gonna win anyway. So what difference does it make if he wins by even more?
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#208 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:04:48 AM | message detail | (edited)
No, Crono beat Mario in 2004 by about 6000 votes, led wire to wire. Mario only won 3 15-minute updates all day.

Mario "beat" Crono in 2003 with a rally and/or stuffing (hard to prove).
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#209 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/28/2013 11:04:48 AM | message detail
GloryChaos posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
it's still going to keep me scared about Missingno regardless of the outcome


You can always take back what you said before the match starts. Not that Missingno stands much of a chance against Squall though. You have nothing to worry about.


This is Gamefaqs we're talking about. No real character is safe. missingno will most likely beat Squall.
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#210 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 11:04:57 AM | message detail
#211 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/28/2013 11:05:41 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
No, Crono beat Mario in 2004 by about 6000 votes, led wire to wire. Mario only won 3 15-minute updates all day.

Mario "beat" Crono in 2003 with a rally and/or stuffing (hard to prove).


I thought he beat Cloud with rallying?
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#212 | xp1337 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:05:48 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
No, Crono beat Mario in 2004 by about 2004, led wire to wire. Mario only won 3 15-minute updates all day.

Mario "beat" Crono in 2003 with a rally and/or stuffing (hard to prove).

and having over 24 hours.
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#213 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:07:04 AM | message detail
Mario "beat" Crono in 2003 with a rally and/or stuffing (hard to prove).

Maybe Crono rallied so much for almost the entire poll that it looked like Mario rallied at the end.

>_>
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#214 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/28/2013 11:08:13 AM | message detail
lol if this holds Palutena could end up looking better than Pit.
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#215 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:09:43 AM | message detail
Yes, Mario/Cloud had about 50,000 votes above what 2002 matches were getting. Cloud, in losing, received more votes than any entrant in a Gamefaqs contest had ever received before. Now, it's clear that most of the 50,000 was not from PlanetGamecube, but we remember PGC because they rallied to the poll during the match, we saw it, and they probably provided a few hundred votes that made the difference.

Crono stuffed votes against Mario a few days after that in 2002, but CJayC removed 500 votes from him for stuffing allowing Mario to win.
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#216 | AppreciateTrees | Posted 8/28/2013 11:10:03 AM | message detail
Dragonborn at 27% in the spread betting topic? Really? O_O
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#217 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/28/2013 11:10:09 AM | message detail
WRT Drave... While I wasn't exactly fond of what L-Block did in 2007, at least it was plausible (and I got over it). Draven? Not so much.
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#218 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2013 11:10:35 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Maybe Crono rallied so much for almost the entire poll that it looked like Mario rallied at the end.

>_>


I like this.
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#219 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/28/2013 11:11:14 AM | message detail
AppreciateTrees posted...
Dragonborn at 27% in the spread betting topic? Really? O_O


After looking like **** in round 1, no less...
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#220 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 8/28/2013 11:12:07 AM | message detail
Oh crap L-Block? I guess I wouldn't have known the joke was funny again because I never thought it was funny in the first place.

On the other hand, MissingNo trumping FF8 would be hee-larious. Still hope Auron pulls this out though.
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#221 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:12:27 AM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
Nanis23 posted...
What the ****? some people here are just...wow...
Yeah because the contest is "ruined" you are going to support Draven...to ruin it even more? ok..perfect logic guys


Draven is gonna win anyway. So what difference does it make if he wins by even more?


Is it really going to kill you to try?
There is 99.9% Draven ein thos contest but im going to waste an hour of my life trying to prevent it
Yes, A full hour
I must go find a life or something
#222 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:15:08 AM | message detail
Maybe Crono rallied so much for almost the entire poll that it looked like Mario rallied at the end.

Not possible because the poll was getting disproportionately more votes at the end than a normal poll. I think I calculated out the number of extra votes during Crono/Missingno, and Mario/Crono 2003 had something like 10,000 extra votes- the vast majority of which were in the last 2 hours. Obviously a lot of those were for Crono, but it's clear most of the rallying was at the end and Mario rallied more.

The extra votes could also be stuffing- it's probably impossible for us to distinguish between rallying and stuffing in that match with the data we have. Back during Crono/Missingno I said that Mario/Crono 2003 was clearly stuffing, but we've since learned that massive rallies, even on the order of 10,000 votes, are possible.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#223 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:16:09 AM | message detail
Auron cuts a lot.Maybe he can win.
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#224 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/28/2013 11:17:07 AM | message detail
Nice Auron, keep closing the gap. Unfortunately L-Block is the king of close matches.
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#225 | Auron | Posted 8/28/2013 11:17:44 AM | message detail
I foresee no difficulty.
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#226 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:18:08 AM | message detail
And that 10,000 would have been about 6000 for Mario and 4000 for Crono.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#227 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 11:20:09 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
What the ****? some people here are just...wow...
Yeah because the contest is "ruined" you are going to support Draven...to ruin it even more? ok..perfect logic guys


"If I can't get what I want, no one else will!"

(The point they're missing is that a bunch of people are immensely enjoying Draven winning and it just helps set up the best possible scenario. Evil nurses the seeds of its own destruction, and all that.)
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#228 | swordz9 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:21:50 AM | message detail
I thought Kanz got banned?
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#229 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:22:07 AM | message detail
"If I can't get what I want, no one else will!"

Yes. It's simple. I want Link to win (well, I want Crono to win, but I know that won't happen). That means I want Link to beat every other character. If Link loses to Draven, he's lost to one character. If Draven then loses to Snake, then Link is now behind 2 characters. That's worse than one.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#230 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/28/2013 11:22:40 AM | message detail
That's pretty rich coming from you, given how kangame turned out. >_>
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#231 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 11:23:06 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
I thought Kanz got banned?


Kancer can't be obliterated without destroying its host body, only stalled.

(I was put on probation and that was that. Not even Ulti's mod pockets can make a random topic banworthy)
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#232 | xp1337 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:23:08 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
I thought Kanz got banned?

Suspended -> Warned
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#233 | neonreaper | Posted 8/28/2013 11:24:23 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
someone get red sox to a retirement home


as long as it isn't mine
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#234 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 11:24:28 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
That's pretty rich coming from you, given how kangame turned out. >_>


Hey, I wasn't the one who gave that one up! People just never were there (and refused to let the game run with absentees - I remember Zero saying he wouldn't play if scep couldn't make it because it'd screw the campaign up and stuff). If everybody wanted to restart it and promised to, like, show up I'd be on that in a heartbeat.
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#235 | TheOceIot | Posted 8/28/2013 11:24:29 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
What happened?When I last checked Auron was winning by like 200 votes.Man rallies at this contest are getting ridiculous.Also Draven-LBlock-Snake final?That would be awesome.


Auron's largest lead was 82 votes.
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#236 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/28/2013 11:24:35 AM | message detail
It'd be hilarious if it turns out most GameFAQs users actually end up supporting Draven's crazy run rather than being against him like most of Board 8 suspects.

How many votes did X and Ryu get, anyway? How would Draven have compared if the match got average votals?
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#237 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 11:26:07 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
"If I can't get what I want, no one else will!"

Yes. It's simple. I want Link to win (well, I want Crono to win, but I know that won't happen). That means I want Link to beat every other character. If Link loses to Draven, he's lost to one character. If Draven then loses to Snake, then Link is now behind 2 characters. That's worse than one.


Oh, don't get me wrong, I totally understand that. I don't like it, but I get it. I just think it's a riot that people want to back Draven to ruin the contest. Draven making the finals with people getting behind him is one half of my dream scenario, so it just makes me smile. L-Block winning another contest would be a much better troll, or Squirtle beating Cloud.
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#238 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/28/2013 11:26:07 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
The_Djoker posted...
Nanis23 posted...
What the ****? some people here are just...wow...
Yeah because the contest is "ruined" you are going to support Draven...to ruin it even more? ok..perfect logic guys


Draven is gonna win anyway. So what difference does it make if he wins by even more?


Is it really going to kill you to try?
There is 99.9% Draven ein thos contest but im going to waste an hour of my life trying to prevent it
Yes, A full hour
I must go find a life or something


tbh. I'm voting for Shepard..because he's the best character of the 3. I use to like link and respect him since OoT and LttP are some of my all time fav games, but now he's just another Nintendo character that gets whored out way too often. And his last few games have been underwhelming to say the least.
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#239 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 11:27:25 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
It'd be hilarious if it turns out most GameFAQs users actually end up supporting Draven's crazy run rather than being against him like most of Board 8 suspects.

How many votes did X and Ryu get, anyway? How would Draven have compared if the match got average votals?


They had 28k votes combined. If you retain those and assume high-but-not-insane votals of 36k, Draven gets 8k. Or did you mean retaining the percentages and converting to standard votals?
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#240 | xp1337 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:30:46 AM | message detail | (edited)
Not_Wylvane posted...
It'd be hilarious if it turns out most GameFAQs users actually end up supporting Draven's crazy run rather than being against him like most of Board 8 suspects.

How many votes did X and Ryu get, anyway? How would Draven have compared if the match got average votals?

X and Ryu combined for just under 28,500 votes. How Draven would have done under normal circumstances is hard to say. Do we just give him 15% and assume that's good for around 4,500 votes? X and Ryu would be a little lower under normal circumstances too, probably around 25,500 if we just arbitrarily say normal is 30k.
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#241 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:27:49 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Nanis23 posted...
What the ****? some people here are just...wow...
Yeah because the contest is "ruined" you are going to support Draven...to ruin it even more? ok..perfect logic guys


"If I can't get what I want, no one else will!"

(The point they're missing is that a bunch of people are immensely enjoying Draven winning and it just helps set up the best possible scenario. Evil nurses the seeds of its own destruction, and all that.)


If I can't get what I want,I will try harder and if I end up failing,at least I can say I tried
#242 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/28/2013 11:28:41 AM | message detail
Oh hey, Auron's about to retake the lead.

I don't think anyone's actually noticed that yet.
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#243 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:29:22 AM | message detail
Looks like 4chan's L-Block rally is over?
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#244 | paulg235 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:29:37 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Oh hey, Auron's about to retake the lead.

I don't think anyone's actually noticed that yet.

L-Block will grab a huge gain to counter it.
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#245 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:29:37 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
red sox 777 posted...
"If I can't get what I want, no one else will!"

Yes. It's simple. I want Link to win (well, I want Crono to win, but I know that won't happen). That means I want Link to beat every other character. If Link loses to Draven, he's lost to one character. If Draven then loses to Snake, then Link is now behind 2 characters. That's worse than one.


Oh, don't get me wrong, I totally understand that. I don't like it, but I get it. I just think it's a riot that people want to back Draven to ruin the contest. Draven making the finals with people getting behind him is one half of my dream scenario, so it just makes me smile. L-Block winning another contest would be a much better troll, or Squirtle beating Cloud.


Are you serious?
Half of the posts said they are voting for X/Ryu
The other half said they are voting Draven just because they want to destroy this contest/make fun of us/laugh at Black Turtle for being 9 years old
#246 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/28/2013 11:29:57 AM | message detail
You know the main reason rallies annoy me is because they **** with my Oracle predictions! Doubly worse when the match is looking as you expected until the rally as well.
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#247 | xp1337 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:30:24 AM | message detail
Well, Auron should be fine so long as "normal trends" are in effect. L-Block needs rallies to stay ahead. Once Auron just started stalling this was kind of inevitable unless L-Block got more help.

I doubt L-Block just gives up without a fight here though.
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#248 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:31:50 AM | message detail
Auron's problem is that it's almost impossible to beat a joke character in a close match. If it's close with an hour to go, you will get outrallied. Whether it's a crushing wave of votes like Crono/Missingno or a surgical strike like Tidus/Missingno matters little- the joke just won't lose.
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#249 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/28/2013 11:32:25 AM | message detail
My favorite part of the reddit rally is that redditors themselves hate Black Turtle so much that they rallied Draven just to spite him.
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#250 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 11:33:09 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Auron's problem is that it's almost impossible to beat a joke character in a close match. If it's close with an hour to go, you will get outrallied. Whether it's a crushing wave of votes like Crono/Missingno or a surgical strike like Tidus/Missingno matters little- the joke just won't lose.


Yeah, Auron just basically needs to surge out to a big lead and never look back from here. That's all he can hope to do.
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