Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1133

#451 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/28/2013 1:47:28 PM | message detail
154 vote update for Block

Makes sense
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#452 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 1:47:55 PM | message detail
Holy **** that gain

Slow down Gandhi, you're killing them!
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Bearer of the Mark of Kan.
#453 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 1:48:39 PM | message detail
Block is spiking off the charts now. Auron probably didn't put this away when he had the chance and now the artificial boosting is coming into play.
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#454 | xp1337 | Posted 8/28/2013 1:48:49 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
154 vote update for Block

Makes sense

Part of me wants to see Bacon comment on this match.

just so we can hear about FFX stuffing at a 2:1 rate again
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#455 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 1:50:41 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Block is spiking off the charts now. Auron probably didn't put this away when he had the chance and now the artificial boosting is coming into play.


L-Block isn't even spiking that hard, Auron is dying off here too. ASV going to the block?
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#456 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 1:50:44 PM | message detail
The loser has never not been caught stuffing at a 2:1 ratio or something silly according to the admins. Just once you'd think the winner would be the one stuffing more, wouldn't you?
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#457 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 1:51:22 PM | message detail
Also man, just checked geolocations and L-Block is...red. That HAD to be intentional somehow. I refuse to believe otherwise, it's too perfect.
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#458 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 1:51:28 PM | message detail
L-Block is spiking pretty hard. Auron's been fairly consistent.
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#459 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/28/2013 1:51:41 PM | message detail
#460 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 1:52:15 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
The loser has never not been caught stuffing at a 2:1 ratio or something silly according to the admins. Just once you'd think the winner would be the one stuffing more, wouldn't you?


calling it
gonna claim Link stuffed at a 2:1 ratio against Draven
#461 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 1:52:47 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
The loser has never not been caught stuffing at a 2:1 ratio or something silly according to the admins. Just once you'd think the winner would be the one stuffing more, wouldn't you?


calling it
gonna claim Link stuffed at a 2:1 ratio against Draven


Draven pocket stuffer so good, he intentionally places dummy votes for the opposition so real votes get DQ'd.
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Bearer of the Mark of Kan.
#462 | xp1337 | Posted 8/28/2013 1:52:51 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
The loser has never not been caught stuffing at a 2:1 ratio or something silly according to the admins. Just once you'd think the winner would be the one stuffing more, wouldn't you?

you'd think

Nevertheless, I find it hilarious to see Bacon tell us these things!

And if L-Block wins this, I really could use a laugh!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#463 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 1:53:00 PM | message detail
Nope, FFIV fanboy.

good news about this is that if Auron loses and Squall wins he keeps FFVIII ahead of FFX for most Character Battle wins

ALL BY HIMSELF

(FFIV still has zero Character Battle wins, in case you were curious)

(literally lost to Luigi/Waluigi)
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#464 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 1:53:39 PM | message detail
#465 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 1:54:06 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Nope, FFIV fanboy.

good news about this is that if Auron loses and Squall wins he keeps FFVIII ahead of FFX for most Character Battle wins

ALL BY HIMSELF

(FFIV still has zero Character Battle wins, in case you were curious)

(literally lost to Luigi/Waluigi)


Squall 'literally carrying an entire game on my shoulders and stealing the clownshoes kid's show' Leonhart, what a beast
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#466 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/28/2013 1:55:27 PM | message detail
all by himself..as if there's any FF8 character worth anything apart from him.
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#467 | White_Tiger | Posted 8/28/2013 1:55:53 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
#468 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 1:56:27 PM | message detail
clearly Link will beat Draven only to lose to Mewtwo, Link/Snake/Mario will be your match of 2nd place semis finishers while Mewtwo/(Squirtle/Pikachu)/Charizard is the final :P
#469 | pjbasis | Posted 8/28/2013 1:57:12 PM | message detail
Hopefully all my favorite characters losing their matches is the sacrifice for the One True Victory over missingno
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#470 | 2Dover3D | Posted 8/28/2013 1:57:23 PM | message detail
#471 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 1:58:39 PM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
all by himself..as if there's any FF8 character worth anything apart from him.


Laguna, dog. Who doesn't love Laguna?
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#472 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/28/2013 1:59:32 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
clearly Link will beat Draven only to lose to Mewtwo, Link/Snake/Mario will be your match of 2nd place semis finishers while Mewtwo/(Squirtle/Pikachu)/Charizard is the final :P


IF there's something i'll Link/LoZ credit for is never allowing pokemon to dominate contests. He negates all pokemon fanboys and puts them into a box where they belong.
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#473 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 1:59:36 PM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
all by himself..as if there's any FF8 character worth anything apart from him.


Year of Laguna is coming

But that's kind of the point

Squall by himself has more wins than 6 FFX characters, 3 FFIV characters, 4 FFVI characters, and 3 FFIX characters

The true Hero of Time
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#474 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 1:59:52 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Seriously. Let's just use some nice round numbers to illustrate the point.

So the match ends with a perfect 50-30-20. No, wait, that actually does produce "normal" stats. Let's try this again...

So the match ends with a 45-35-20. Character B's percentage on character A is 43.75%. Character C's percentage on Character B is 36.36%. Hence, as per the way X-stats are calculated, Character C is projected to get 31.81% on Character A. Character A's percentage on Character C was 69.23%. Hence, Character A is projected to get 44.06% on Character A.

Actually, let's make it even easier, and in doing so, reveal that it's not so much "fallacy of multi-way X-stats" as "fallacy of X-stats". Character A exactly doubled Character B, who exactly doubled Character C. Now, if these were two separate results in the same 1v1 contest, the formula for X-stats would have Character C's value on Character A at 22.22% ((33.33%/50)*33.33%). But if, instead, this were a single 3-way match, then quite clearly Character A quadrupled Character C, and Character C's value on Character A is 20%.

Why does this happen? Well, it's quite simple. The winner of a contest is set at 50%. Anyone who actually directly faced that winner is set at whatever their percentage was in that match. Only thing is, the winner's percentage in that match wasn't 50%. (That's why the 50-30-20 example didn't work--the winner actually was at 50%, so there was no distortion.)

A potential solution is as follows, though it'll probably have some bugs of its own: Set the value of the champion to 100%. Define X-stats for everyone else as the loser's percentage over the winner's percentage times the winner's X-stat value. So using the example listed on the wiki page:

In 2002, Link was the champion, and had an X-stat value of 100%. Mario faced him directly, and scored 37.47%, so his X-stat value is 37.47%/62.53% * 100% = 59.91%. Cloud faced Mario and scored 49.89%, so his X-stat value is 49.89%/50.11% * 59.91% = 59.66%. And so on.

Certainly works a lot better than the current model that says that if A=2B and B=2C, A=7C/2!


you know, that was what I was thinking when I read up on what x-stats were
#475 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 1:59:59 PM | message detail
Yeah, looks like Auron's done. He needed to not be put in this position, a few hundred more votes on his side and L-Block would have never even seen spikes like this. Sucks for him, but that's to be expected in a close match with a joke. My rules remain ironclad!
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#476 | Kibago | Posted 8/28/2013 2:01:14 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
clearly Link will beat Draven only to lose to Mewtwo, Link/Snake/Mario will be your match of 2nd place semis finishers while Mewtwo/(Squirtle/Pikachu)/Charizard is the final :P


imagining Snake blowing a Snake/Pikachu/Squirtle semifinal just made me laugh so, so hard.
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#477 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/28/2013 2:01:32 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
The_Djoker posted...
all by himself..as if there's any FF8 character worth anything apart from him.


Year of Laguna is coming

But that's kind of the point

Squall by himself has more wins than 6 FFX characters, 3 FFIV characters, 4 FFVI characters, and 3 FFIX characters

The true Hero of Time


What a beast
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#478 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 2:01:59 PM | message detail
Nearly a 42% hour for L-Block.
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#479 | Kinglicious | Posted 8/28/2013 2:02:46 PM | message detail
Looks like the cheating for auron has ended and THE BLOCK is back ready to smash.
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The King Wang.
Listen up Urinal Cake. I already have something that tells me if I'm too drunk when I pee on it: My friends. - Colbert.
#480 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/28/2013 2:03:27 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
The_Djoker posted...
all by himself..as if there's any FF8 character worth anything apart from him.


Year of Laguna is coming

But that's kind of the point

Squall by himself has more wins than 6 FFX characters, 3 FFIV characters, 4 FFVI characters, and 3 FFIX characters

The true Hero of Time


If he beats draven then he will be.
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#481 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/28/2013 2:04:30 PM | message detail
Kibago posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
clearly Link will beat Draven only to lose to Mewtwo, Link/Snake/Mario will be your match of 2nd place semis finishers while Mewtwo/(Squirtle/Pikachu)/Charizard is the final :P


imagining Snake blowing a Snake/Pikachu/Squirtle semifinal just made me laugh so, so hard.


Unlike Square, Snake doesn't lose to Joke Nintendo characters.
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#482 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/28/2013 2:05:11 PM | message detail
Draven
Snake
Mario

Actually pretty interesting Final.
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~ The Dilated One
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#483 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 2:05:33 PM | message detail
Oh, I should note the trends favor Auron - he's got a nice SNV and Europe is the thing dragging him down here so as they stop voting all the momentum should shift to him.

lol
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#484 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 2:06:36 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Draven
Snake
Mario

Actually pretty interesting Final.


Draven > Mario > Snake, not really close on any end.

Mario > Snake is somewhat in doubt but probably not with Draven skewing the results.
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#485 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2013 2:08:53 PM | message detail
It'd be more interesting if Mario/Snake crushed Draven!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#486 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 2:09:25 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Oh, I should note the trends favor Auron - he's got a nice SNV and Europe is the thing dragging him down here so as they stop voting all the momentum should shift to him.

lol


Note that Canada is way communist and this favors L-Block though. Auron has only a very small lead in 'Merica.
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#487 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 2:09:40 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Draven > Mario > Snake, not really close on any end.

Mario > Snake is somewhat in doubt but probably not with Draven skewing the results.


Draven giving out Nintendo boosts confirmed

it's like the opposite of SFF
#488 | Qwaar | Posted 8/28/2013 2:09:42 PM | message detail
How is L-Block doing this?
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#489 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/28/2013 2:10:34 PM | message detail
Trends don't matter L-Block has this.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 101/135 Today's Picks: Samus and Auron
#490 | Kinglicious | Posted 8/28/2013 2:10:56 PM | message detail
Obviously Putin has L Block winning.
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The King Wang.
Listen up Urinal Cake. I already have something that tells me if I'm too drunk when I pee on it: My friends. - Colbert.
#491 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 2:11:31 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
It'd be more interesting if Mario/Snake crushed Draven!


That's the plan, now I just need capable rally bros to help out with that...!
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#492 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/28/2013 2:11:32 PM | message detail
Yes, I noticed that L-Block's color on the map is Communist Red. How appropriate.
#493 | xp1337 | Posted 8/28/2013 2:11:54 PM | message detail
Snake/Mario would be legitimately interesting by itself but Draven would just ruin it.

There really isn't a set-up you can make with Draven to make the final worthwhile. It's all the same - Draven wins, second place either doesn't matter or is just too affected by Draven to really matter.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#494 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/28/2013 2:12:01 PM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
How is L-Block doing this?


pokemon fanboys. they have to vote for something.

Had a pokemon been in this poll L block would flop horribly.
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#495 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 2:12:28 PM | message detail
Kinglicious posted...
Obviously Putin has L Block winning.


L-Block>Draven confirmed
#496 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 2:12:33 PM | message detail
Rally subsiding, Auron is starting to wake up. Let's see if he can trim this one down too.
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Bearer of the Mark of Kan.
#497 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 2:13:21 PM | message detail
It doesn't really matter if Auron trims it down because we know what'll happen when he does.
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#498 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 2:16:01 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
It doesn't really matter if Auron trims it down because we know what'll happen when he does.


We post a topic on /r/gaming, upvote it en masse and see if that shuts L-Block down?

(Seriously considering doing this, but only if people are gonna show up and upvote it. This match is as good as any to see if the casualest big gaming group can be leveraged to vote for anyone at all.)
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Bearer of the Mark of Kan.
#499 | Kibago | Posted 8/28/2013 2:16:09 PM | message detail
Play Tetris.
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Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.
#500 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/28/2013 2:16:10 PM | message detail
Play Pokemon RBY
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POKEFEAR