Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1132

#1 | WolfActual | Posted 8/27/2013 6:57:57 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/67091568

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
#2 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/27/2013 7:27:08 AM | message detail
Blue will score higher than what he did in Round 1.
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#3 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/27/2013 8:05:15 AM | message detail
Thanks for the link!
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#4 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/27/2013 8:27:32 AM | message detail
It's too bad people haven't played Drake's games.
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#5 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:09:11 AM | message detail
BLUE MOTHERF***ING OAK!
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#6 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/27/2013 9:09:30 AM | message detail
If anything I wouldn't be surprised if the board has become a bit anti-Pokemon

There is no universe where this board is "anti-Pokemon" stats topic has become anti-Pokemon for whatever reason but the board as a whole still loves it.

I still don't understand how the board craps all over Draven for having no character, and then spam votes for anything to do with Pokemon.. Such hypocrisy.

Also I don't think it was highlighted enough what a moronic statement this was.

Especially during a Blue match. Like we're not even talking a Pokemon here, we're talking a literal human character. One synonymous with the anime fan-favourite, no less.
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#7 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:10:33 AM | message detail
Will Pokemon fans be smart and vote-in Drake? Hell no! Sora>Pickachu>Blue confirmed.
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#8 | 2Dover3D | Posted 8/27/2013 9:10:35 AM | message detail
#9 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:10:47 AM | message detail
Everything going to G&W
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 98/129 Today's Picks: Sora and Fox McCloud
#10 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/27/2013 9:10:57 AM | message detail
OK yeah this is over now.
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#11 | Kinglicious | Posted 8/27/2013 9:11:18 AM | message detail
Blue is such a good trainer that even with the wrong pokemon he's gonna fight for 50%.
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#12 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/27/2013 9:11:27 AM | message detail
SMELL YA LATER
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#13 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:11:33 AM | message detail
Will Pokemon fans be smart and vote-in Drake? Hell no! Sora>Pickachu>Blue confirmed.

You've got the signs going the wrong way
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 98/129 Today's Picks: Sora and Fox McCloud
#14 | vcharon | Posted 8/27/2013 9:11:54 AM | message detail
Draven is "crapped on" for being an illegitimate piece of fodder that's being rallied into the heavens. He could be the best character in the world or a blank slate of nothing; no one talks about Draven in that way because it isn't what people are complaining about.
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#15 | KingBartz | Posted 8/27/2013 9:12:35 AM | message detail
Sora wins R3 no matter what. Anyone who thinks that Pikachu or Blue have a chance there is nuts.
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#16 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:12:40 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
If anything I wouldn't be surprised if the board has become a bit anti-Pokemon

There is no universe where this board is "anti-Pokemon" stats topic has become anti-Pokemon for whatever reason but the board as a whole still loves it.

I still don't understand how the board craps all over Draven for having no character, and then spam votes for anything to do with Pokemon.. Such hypocrisy.

Also I don't think it was highlighted enough what a moronic statement this was.

Especially during a Blue match. Like we're not even talking a Pokemon here, we're talking a literal human character. One synonymous with the anime fan-favourite, no less.


Ignore him
All of his posts are anti Pokemon for unknown reason
It's like Black Turtle during a FFIX match or something
#17 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:13:14 AM | message detail
Nothing entered the top 10 from the previous match.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 98/129 Today's Picks: Sora and Fox McCloud
#18 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2013 9:15:48 AM | message detail
I know that Blue's being leeched slightly, but 58% on a Pac-Man equivalent is kind of underwhelming.
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#19 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/27/2013 9:15:56 AM | message detail
All of his posts are anti Pokemon for unknown reason

It's not him being anti-Pokemon that bothers me, god knows I'm used to that sentiment hanging around in this topic. The problem is what an absurd comparison that is, that people give a damn either way about Draven's character.
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#20 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:16:18 AM | message detail
lol an Uncharted character dropping faster than a Pokemon from the board vote
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 98/129 Today's Picks: Sora and Fox McCloud
#21 | Achromatic | Posted 8/27/2013 9:17:12 AM | message detail
I like Draven. He's pretty funny and a good champion in League.
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#22 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/27/2013 9:17:16 AM | message detail
G&W just beasting over here.
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#23 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:17:37 AM | message detail
I know that Blue's being leeched slightly, but 58% on a Pac-Man equivalent is kind of underwhelming.

To be fair Pac-Man had one of the best set-ups, he had full control over the nostalgic vote
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 98/129 Today's Picks: Sora and Fox McCloud
#24 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2013 9:20:19 AM | message detail | (edited)
And Blue doesn't have a monopoly on the nostalgic vote in this match? That's not a good reason.

Edit: No, none of our voters are nostalgic for Game & Watch.
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#25 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:24:03 AM | message detail
And Blue doesn't have a monopoly on the nostalgic vote in this match? That's not a good reason.

It effects Pac-Man more because few people actually care enough about him to rank him as one of their favourites, but no one hates him either.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 98/129 Today's Picks: Sora and Fox McCloud
#26 | raginbull911 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:26:14 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
If anything I wouldn't be surprised if the board has become a bit anti-Pokemon

There is no universe where this board is "anti-Pokemon" stats topic has become anti-Pokemon for whatever reason but the board as a whole still loves it.

I still don't understand how the board craps all over Draven for having no character, and then spam votes for anything to do with Pokemon.. Such hypocrisy.

Also I don't think it was highlighted enough what a moronic statement this was.

Especially during a Blue match. Like we're not even talking a Pokemon here, we're talking a literal human character. One synonymous with the anime fan-favourite, no less.


Ignore him
All of his posts are anti Pokemon for unknown reason
It's like Black Turtle during a FFIX match or something


I'm not anti-Pokemon per se.. I actually love the Pokemon games, though I haven't played B/W yet. From a game design perspective, they're arguably the biggest genre innovation of the last 20 years.

I'm just tired of all the mindless automatons just voting for anything to do with Pokemon characters when in reality they're just random animals with nothing to them, and then reading comments saying Draven isn't unique at all -- don't pretend there weren't any, I don't feel like going hunting, but the disgust that people had towards Draven as a character was evident -- and is just another champion in a pool of 100+. Draven has more character in his 2 paragraphs of lore and clever scripting/voice-acting then 99% of Pokemon have. Squirtle>Dante was a really stupid result when you look at the actual characters. Pikachu>Crono (Hell, Pikachu>Magus might be worse) is another bad result; Lugia crushing Sly was really sad. Charizard defeating Zelda and DK, and subsequently MegaMan and Zero is also going to be really weak stuff.

To XIII's point, Blue is probably the least egregious of the Pokemon characters, since even outside of the awesome and memetic Gary Oak mythos, the rival in RBY is by far the best written character in the game's first installment. But defeating the fantastically scripted star of arguably this generation's best new series? Pretty gross.
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#27 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2013 9:28:04 AM | message detail
That's just getting more into Pac's intrinsic strength. It's good enough to take down, say, 2005 Ocelot, but it is still weak. Drake is basically barely over the fodder line, so this is making Blue look pretty chumpy compared to his Pokemon brethren. 58% on Dante or 58% on Drake?
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#28 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:29:10 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
That's just getting more into Pac's intrinsic strength. It's good enough to take down, say, 2005 Ocelot, but it is still weak. Drake is basically barely over the fodder line, so this is making Blue look pretty chumpy compared to his Pokemon brethren. 58% on Dante or 58% on Drake?


Blue gonna fold, Pikachu>Sora>Blue confirmed
#29 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/27/2013 9:29:27 AM | message detail
People expected Blue to do better than this? This is a tougher pack for Blue than Fox/Wolf was, for a lot of reasons.
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#30 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:30:21 AM | message detail
The problem with Draven is not that he is actually a "bad character" or something
It's obvious for everyone here that those contests are not about who is the better character (Link would be below fodderline if that was the case)
There are a lot of major problems with Draven winning it,not being a good characters is not one of them
#31 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/27/2013 9:31:32 AM | message detail
This also makes Fox look horrible and makes Pikachu > Sora look a tiny bit more likely.

Or maybe Drake had a nice boost himself, considering he's had Uncharted 3 since then. Plus he faced The Boss last contest, who looked much, much better than we expected.

Really, everyone behind Luigi in 2010 is looking better than expected, which makes sense because Luigi was under Link SFF.
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#32 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/27/2013 9:31:48 AM | message detail
I'm not sure why we're expected to vote for the most developed character. If that was the case, characters like Mr G&W wouldn't even be in the contest. This is about voting for the character you like the most, not which one is the deepest.
#33 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:32:14 AM | message detail
That's just getting more into Pac's intrinsic strength. It's good enough to take down, say, 2005 Ocelot, but it is still weak. Drake is basically barely over the fodder line, so this is making Blue look pretty chumpy compared to his Pokemon brethren. 58% on Dante or 58% on Drake?

I never thought a normal Pac-Man should be the fodder line he does have some strength. Regardless looking at last round Blue placed himself at around Fox who is essentially a midcarder, he was never going to match Mewtwo, Squirtle or Pikachu
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 98/129 Today's Picks: Sora and Fox McCloud
#34 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2013 9:34:49 AM | message detail
Considering that people were very seriously entertaining the possibility of 'motherf***ing GARY OAK' beating Pikachu next round, I think this does bear examination. Right now he doesn't look like he'd nearly be up to the task.
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#35 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:37:18 AM | message detail
Yeah well..I dunno
They are pretty much screwed
On the other hand,we can compare Blue performance to Sora performance
Is Gilgamesh really that much stronger than Drake? who knows
#36 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/27/2013 9:37:36 AM | message detail
People behind 2010 Luigi:

Meta-Knight (lol SFF sucker), Ama, Shadow the Hedgehog, WCC, The Boss, Nathan Drake, Sandal (lol)

Ama and The Boss did better than expected, so it's probably more Drake being hidden by Luigi SFF and gaining a bit of strength.
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#37 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2013 9:39:28 AM | message detail
Even if it's close, Sora has perhaps the largest jump of night to day strength in the contest. We haven't seen him exercise his vaunted day vote since 2008, so if it's anything near what it used to be it'll easily put him ahead.
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#38 | swordz9 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:40:28 AM | message detail
I wonder if Blue would look strongest with his RBY battle sprite compared to his other looks.
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#39 | raginbull911 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:43:50 AM | message detail
Scarlettail posted...
I'm not sure why we're expected to vote for the most developed character. If that was the case, characters like Mr G&W wouldn't even be in the contest. This is about voting for the character you like the most, not which one is the deepest.


Fair enough, I can respect that.

A lot of League of Legends fans like their game the best, and love Draven out of that game. They liked him enough to come bring out the vote for their favorite character from the game, but most people here can't accept that because of the hate they have for LoL and by proxy Draven. This is where I get frustrated at the hypocrisy of Pokemon vs LoL.

To the insulary e-xenophobes out there, spare me the waxing poetic that this is a GameFAQs exclusive contest. If a gaming community likes their character enough to bring out the vote, more power to them -- GameFAQs users can go and vote for contests on IGN, GameSpot, etc. if they feel strongly enough about the content. There's plenty of gaming communities out there for various games -- it's too bad they don't care enough about their characters to bring the vote, or that people don't want to rally these other communities for their characters. If we had votes consistently coming in from outside GameFAQs, maybe we could get the votals back near 200k like in this site's heyday. It's not a secret that GameFAQs could use the boost in traffic these days. I honestly think despite his duplicity than Kanzaris had the right idea, and this community shunned him and drove him out of here.

Also, to anyone thinking that League fans would just vote for anything to do with it like all the Pokefans, I point you to look at Teemo losing to Palutena. Rallies were attempted, and nobody gave a crap to bring out the vote for Teemo.
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#40 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/27/2013 9:53:21 AM | message detail | (edited)
Oh so you're one of those. The illogical, foaming-at-the-mouth anti-Pokemon types who literally and unironically uses the term "Pokedrones". Like KP in the early stages of the Dante/Squirtle match, before he calmed down and became regular KP.

Jigglypuff. And Lugia. And hell, Magikarp. The Pokemon that have actually done well are good Pokemon, fan-favourites. Missingno is a legend of sorts; Squirtle, Charizard and Pikachu are all RBY starters (as well as being in Smash). Drones. Lol.
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#41 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2013 9:50:21 AM | message detail
The Pokemon haven't gotten to the level of Draven - that is, rallying so many outside votes that the actual preference of the userbase is not just watered down, but completely drowned out so that they have no say at all and so the winner of the contest is no longer even slightly in doubt.

Now, people are proposing we do the exact same thing to the Pokemon, at which point just gotta ask "why not support Draven"
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#42 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:52:07 AM | message detail
DroneFAQs again?
I must say I didn't vote for Jigglypuff! screw Jigglypuff
And I also didn't vote Magikarp too (but that's more because it's Mega Man,I would vote for him over any other NNer)
#43 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:52:53 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
The Pokemon haven't gotten to the level of Draven - that is, rallying so many outside votes that the actual preference of the userbase is not just watered down, but completely drowned out so that they have no say at all and so the winner of the contest is no longer even slightly in doubt.

Now, people are proposing we do the exact same thing to the Pokemon, at which point just gotta ask "why not support Draven"


because most people here prefer Pokemon to LoL?
#44 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/27/2013 9:54:01 AM | message detail | (edited)
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
The Pokemon haven't gotten to the level of Draven - that is, rallying so many outside votes that the actual preference of the userbase is not just watered down, but completely drowned out so that they have no say at all and so the winner of the contest is no longer even slightly in doubt.

Now, people are proposing we do the exact same thing to the Pokemon, at which point just gotta ask "why not support Draven"


because most people here prefer Pokemon to LoL?


People actually liking Pokemon? An alien idea to the stats topic.
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#45 | tgs2 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:55:46 AM | message detail
The rallies may be good for traffic now, but with how AWFUL the strength of these champions are pre-rally on this site, you have to wonder how long LoL fans can keep it up without getting frustrated especially if there are ~7-8 champions next contest. It feels like diminishing returns.
#46 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2013 9:55:57 AM | message detail
Exactly my point. If this unstoppable reddit rally had been directed at a Pokemon instead of an LoL character you'd be telling us all to get our panties out of a bunch, guaranteed beyond the shadow of a doubt.

Please spare us the rationalizations. As usual, it all boils down to personal preference, and a win any way you can get it.
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#47 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/27/2013 9:57:52 AM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
The rallies may be good for traffic now, but with how AWFUL the strength of these champions are pre-rally on this site, you have to wonder how long LoL fans can keep it up without getting frustrated especially if there are ~7-8 champions next contest. It feels like diminishing returns.


next contest: flood the bracket with LoL champions so they get annoyed and stop after round 1
success!
#48 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/27/2013 9:58:16 AM | message detail
If Squirtle actually beats Cloud, what kind of shot are we giving him against Snake and Sora? If he beats Cloud in a match that favors him due to Stand Out Factor, I don't see why he couldn't do the same against Snake in the next round. The possibility is at least there.

And yes, I'm just speculating because my stupid support of Nathan Drake has killed my bracket and this is aaaaall there's left for me to do.
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#49 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2013 9:58:51 AM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
The rallies may be good for traffic now, but with how AWFUL the strength of these champions are pre-rally on this site, you have to wonder how long LoL fans can keep it up without getting frustrated especially if there are ~7-8 champions next contest. It feels like diminishing returns.


A mere fraction of their rally strength is enough to beat any single character on this site. Keeping it up if they want won't be even a little bit of an issue.
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#50 | ZFS | Posted 8/27/2013 9:59:38 AM | message detail
If Squirtle beats Cloud, he'll probably get a bandwagon. It wouldn't surprise to see him bet Snake, too.
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