GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1131
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I'm sure paulg is searching for Sheik images as we speak. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
Noooo --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
I'm kind of curious if those would even be considered. oh who am i kidding of course they would --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
At
least Sheik appears in both Ocarina of Time and Smash Bros Melee and
Brawl, so she'd at least get votes from those franchises alone. Besides, already submitted my Zelda image this round. --- Allen didn't screw VV, Phoenix Wright didn't screw VV, Mewtwo certainly did not screw VV, nor did paulg screw VV. Vincent Valentine screwed Vincent Valentine. |
Is it Tetra? |
paulg235 posted... At least Sheik appears in both Ocarina of Time and Smash Bros Melee and Brawl, so she'd at least get votes from those franchises alone. Given your track record, I'd not be surprised if it's more pic sabotage... --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
hylianknight3 posted... Is it Tetra? Right game, wrong appearance. --- The Gamer In Me His dark secret is he's really Spark Brushel in disguise. If people knew, he'd be ruined. - Spiral on the black psyche locks |
So
it looks like Crono gets perhaps 51% against Pikachu in a 1v1 day
match. That should translate to around 53% for a 24 hour match and 55%
for a night match. Well, 53% isn't good, but I suppose that's quite close to what Crono/Pikachu went like in 2008. Overall, objectively a reasonable performance for everyone here. But still one that cannot be satisfying. Because what's the use of talking about 1v1 24 hour matches when Crono hasn't had one since 2006? Link, Cloud, Mario, and Snake are the only characters who have had that honor in close to 7 years. And not more than 2 of them. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
What
does everyone think about Charizard/Mario/Samus? Mario's 2010
percentage on Charizard was just about identical to Crono's 2008
percentage on Pikachu. Both Pokemon were likely overrated, Charizard by
HGSS and Pikachu by the Kill L-Block train. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
red sox 777 posted... So it looks like Crono gets perhaps 51% against Pikachu in a 1v1 day match. That should translate to around 53% for a 24 hour match and 55% for a night match. I don't know if Crono would get that high in a 24 hour match. Back in 2010, I speculated that day matches get ~70% the votes of normal matches. If that holds true for your above 51% number, than this means that Crono would have to get 57.67% of the missing votes in order to get up to 53%, something I'm not that sure about. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
red sox 777 posted... What does everyone think about Charizard/Mario/Samus? Mario's 2010 percentage on Charizard was just about identical to Crono's 2008 percentage on Pikachu. Both Pokemon were likely overrated, Charizard by HGSS and Pikachu by the Kill L-Block train. I took Mario in my bracket, but I think it'll come down to exactly how strong Charizard looks in his next match. If Mario/Samus can LFF each other into the floor, 'Zard could totally take advantage, as long as his performance last contest wasn't a total fraud. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Mario/Charizard/Samus
isn't nearly as lopsided as the Pikachu match was, anyway. It's all
Nintendo, of which Pokemon is still part of, even if it is a bit
independent, and with two much stronger, more preferable characters than
Crono/Magus. I've never believed Mario was in real danger of losing
before the finals, but if Pokemon has got some kind of bandwagon going
on, then who knows. It's hard to imagine an all Nintendo match with
Mario and Samus going to a Pokemon. That just doesn't add up to me,
unless the Charizard last contest was somehow legitimate, which would be
baffling. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Although at this point it'll be Draven/Squirtle/Charizard or something in the finals. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
I would be very surprised if Charizard could pull that one off. --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Maybe the Draven fiasco chased a bunch of people off the site and brought in a bunch of new ones that really like Pokιmon. --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
Think
it depends on the flow of things at the time. If Squirtle beats Cloud,
or there's some other Pokemon breakthrough where there shouldn't be,
then it'll probably just snowball from there. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
paulg235 posted... hylianknight3 posted...Is it Tetra? Every Zelda character needs a Wind Waker pic now. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
So speaking of Mega Man, uh, Kratos or Jill for 2nd place? Kratos has beaten Jill in 4-ways, but we know not to always trust those stats. Plus action characters have been bombing pretty hard this contest. Though God of War being more casual-geared may make Kratos not as affected as much. --- "In fact, I should just play good games from now on... Man, F*** THAT, let's play some s***ty ones!" - Angry Video Game Nerd |
Heh,
looks like Yoshimitsu loves to gain ridiculous amounts of percentage
over the course of the match. Last time, he went from 33.88% six minutes
in to 42.66% at the end. He's gone from 15.76% five minutes in to
19.11% already in this match. We should get him in a match with a
character of similar strength. Could make for a hilarious comeback. --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
No, we should never see him again. --- Proud supporter of DogFAQs |
So what does Sora get against Crono & Magus? I think Sora is the favorite next round but I wouldn't be really surprised if Pikachu pulls it off even with Blue in the match. We've seen DK win under similar circumstances. If Drake wins, that would be ideal. 1 v 1, Sora vs. Pikachu, who wins? --- ~ The Dilated One IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard |
Hm..weird Why so many people here support Drake>Blue? Drake hadf problems beating Pac Man...and he is far weaker than Fox Unless you believe G&W will leech Blue into the ground? (lol G&W) or that..terrible picture will change something? Blue is a lock to advance here Anyway.bad bad news guys! Draven is free to play this week... |
Nanis23 posted... Hm..weird I agree. I don't know why people think, after three straight RBY overperformances, Blue is suddenly going to drop from Fox's level to Pac-Man's. Fodderliners do not beat midcarders just because of a leech. And Blue's picture is fiiiiiiine. --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
Wait, there are people who think Drake has a chance? LOL. --- Proud supporter of DogFAQs |
Ultimaphazon posted... Wait, there are people who think Drake has a chance? LOL. I don't think anyone's seriously considering the upset, but it's a lock (that is, >99% chance) and should be treated like one. --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
Oh hey, is someone else finally joining me on the "12 hour matches are bad for the contest" bandwagon? I remember throwing this out there in 2010 and people were all like "No way man 12 hour matches are AWESOME" The best contest matches generally are not the wire to wire matches. The genuinely awesome wire to wire matches are few and far between. Everyone remembers CT/LTTP and Kefka/Vercetti, but those are the exceptions. Nobody remembers Fable/Team Fortress 2 fondly. The best matches in contest history have historically been matches with huge vote swings (whether legitimate or otherwise). 12 hour matches destroy any chance of big vote swings, one because you have less time, and two because you divide characters' power zones in two. It's not a coincidence that the best match from GOTD was a 24 hour match! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Also,
a Sheik pic honestly wouldn't be bad for Zelda. It's not like there's
anyone here who doesn't realize who Sheik is, and it's a well liked
alter ego. --- http://gifsoup.com/view4/2077316/thane-dance-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view1/1334641/pop-that-collar-o.gif |
Anyway, trend chart from the day match: Time | Crono | Pikachu | Magus | Votes 0:05 | 38.93% | 52.87% | 8.20% | 244 1:00 | 38.50% | 48.48% | 13.02% | 4862 2:00 | 40.58% | 47.48% | 11.94% | 3709 3:00 | 39.42% | 47.61% | 12.97% | 3176 4:00 | 39.95% | 48.11% | 11.93% | 2916 5:00 | 39.47% | 48.36% | 12.17% | 2802 6:00 | 39.69% | 48.13% | 12.18% | 2701 7:00 | 42.48% | 45.25% | 12.27% | 2387 8:00 | 41.07% | 45.72% | 13.22% | 2194 9:00 | 42.41% | 46.56% | 11.03% | 2049 10:00 | 42.24% | 44.54% | 13.22% | 2050 11:00 | 42.36% | 44.24% | 13.40% | 1806 12:00 | 40.68% | 46.49% | 12.84% | 1566 Nothing unexpected here. Pikachu does well in the first half. Crono and Magus do better in the second half. X-Stats: Pikachu 50.00% Crono 46.20% Lloyd Irving 30.86% Big Daddy 30.70% Missile 21.63% Magus 20.99% Sarah Kerrigan 20.30% Hal Otacon Emmerich 17.41% Jade Curtiss 11.60% Pikachu's prediction percentage was 38.53% --- http://gifsoup.com/view4/2077316/thane-dance-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view1/1334641/pop-that-collar-o.gif |
That's a...rather drastic fall from the 6:00 to the 7:00 |
I
feel like if we ever have to sit through four days of 65-35
midcard/near-elite vs. fodder/near-fodder matches this topic would be
filled "please give us the 12 hour matches back, this is awful!" I like the 12 hour format for the early going to thin out the field. I'm not sure I'd really like to see a 64-game 1v1 24 hour battle - there would be a huge number of near-elite/elites that'd get snubbed in place of fodder with dedicated fanbases and recently released games. 12 hour matches beget a big reduction of the risk of big snubs by allowing an expanded bracket. Once we're down to characters who've made it through a couple of rounds though, I think they deserve 24 hours to battle it out. This contest is a bit different because we kill off so much of the bracket each round that we'll actually be down to 27 entrants (instead of 32, in a 128 entrant contest) by round three. Which underlines another weakness of this format - it might profess to get more entrants interesting matches, but it actually murders them in more brutal batches than straight 1v1s would. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
Current X-Stats: Sora 50.00% Scorpion 42.78% Gilgamesh 38.92% Booker DeWitt 32.31% Yoshimitsu 28.56% Aya Brea 27.98% Lu Bu 24.76% Groose 20.95% Kaim Argonar 14.18% I am now manually realizing that Aya Brea would have won a match if you switched her with Yoshimitsu. I am very sad. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
Kotetsu534 posted... I feel like if we ever have to sit through four days of 65-35 midcard/near-elite vs. fodder/near-fodder matches this topic would be filled "please give us the 12 hour matches back, this is awful!" Of course they would! People clamored for the return of 4-ways during 1-on-1 contests, too! BRING BACK THE UNPREDICTABILITY But like KH said, you get even MORE horribly boring matches in 12 hour matches with bloated brackets. --- http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg |
I
agree that 24 hour, 1v1 matches are the best format - you're right that
FFX/MM is the stand out match of the past few years for a good reason -
but a whole contest of them would be dangerous because it would limit
the field to 64. I certainly would feel like it was a huge missed
opportunity if we finally got a 1v1 games contest with no era divisions
only to lose out on multiple top 20-25 games because of a small field. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
I
don't know. GotD had amazing matches, even during the first few rounds
that were 12-hour matches. If you halve the field, removing the 9 seeds
and higher, I'm not sure we'd get a better contest. --- Proud supporter of DogFAQs |
The
problem (not really problem, I guess, but you know what I mean) with
games is that there's a much larger field of worthwhile competitors
compared to characters. So yeah, it'd be hard to limit it to just 64
without missing out on a bunch of good games, especially considering how
much trash will still get in no matter how small you make the field. Ultimaphazon posted... GotD had amazing matches I'm struggling to think of a large number of them, and it's probably a relatively small percentage compared to the size of the field regardless. I mean we had SotC's run, Melee/Brawl, and...As far as stuff people will remember from 12 hour matches in that contest, that's about it. Maybe the two Dead Rising matches, but probably only if you're a fan of Dead Rising, TWEWY, or Persona 4. You never hear anyone talk about how great Fable/TF2 was, despite it being the closest wire to wire match ever. You might have nerds like me who remember stuff like "DEUS EX ISN'T WINNING BY ENOUGH!" but you get dumb topics like that regardless of the quality of the match itself. GotD gave us a lot of unexpected results, but that's not the same thing as a quality match. --- http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif |
And
doing a quick count, 42 of the 64 round 1 matches in GOTD had the
winner netting at least 60% of the vote, and 16 of 32 round 2 matches.
And I was even kind enough not to count the "Ulti style destruction"
matches where the winner had 55-59% and was never in danger of losing. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/477513/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-1-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3691 Yoshimitsu was almost doubled by Scorpion there. Sounds fairly accurate. On the other hand, you could argue Gilgamesh doing so well here is another strike against Mortal Kombat. Scorpion didn't do much better than this, Sub-Zero let Garrus get 45% on him, and Sub-Zero almost lost to The Boss in a day match. These could all be coincidences and Gilgamesh, Garrus, and The Boss are all unexpectedly strong but yeah. A Mortal Kombat drop needs to be considered, and that would say pretty bad things about Sora. (also Bowser - and it might not be a coincidence that Sora was the opponent in 2010 he looked good against. It's not like Bowser looked good in 2007 or 2008!) FFVII has bombed like crazy, Sora could easily do the same. I mean, Sora getting 57% on Scorpion? Looks bad but whatever. Possible MK9 boost, night match, blah blah blah. Sora getting 62% on Gilgamesh, even if it is a night match? Uhhhh. Whether he loses or not, I think Sora's going to get embarrassed badly next round. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
With how MGS looked I think almost losing to The Boss sounds good actually!!!!! |
Sora's
problem is that he's had nothing but night matches since 2010. We won't
really get to see him at full strength until next round. He'll
definitely be noticeably stronger than any match we've seen him in the
last two contests. It might not matter though. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
Actually,
seeing who gets the night vote between Kingdom Hearts and Pokemon next
round should be interesting. Barring the early vote, they have near
identical trends. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
This contest has had quality matches, too! Look at Mewtwo beating Vincent, Squirtle beating Dante, and Pikachu beating Crono! But hey, we'll get our first 24 hour match where we get to watch Draven 65-35 Link, so I'm sure all the 24h fans will be happy then. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
Well, it depends on your definition of quality matches! But I agree that a match doesn't have to be close to be quality. Doesn't hurt though! --- http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/9919/leonhart.png |
Also,
I'm probably going to rally for Pikachu next round since he's f***ed
against Sora otherwise, but it might not work or end up helping Blue
instead or whatever. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
Kotetsu534 posted... I feel like if we ever have to sit through four days of 65-35 midcard/near-elite vs. fodder/near-fodder matches this topic would be filled "please give us the 12 hour matches back, this is awful!" The issue is, an expaned bracket would actually be worth it if it brought a lot of worthy competitors in, which, 9 times out of 10, it doesn't. And we've seen enough boring stall wars for 10 contests thanks to the 12 hour format. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
We should all be all in on Pikachu. He has a much better chance of beating Draven than Blue does. --- http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png |
Yep,
I'm been feeling real good about my Pika > Sora pick and I've been
getting more confident in it with each match that passes. I hope
Charizard doesn't completely beast his poll at the end of this round so
Riku looks worse, too. Watching Link get blown out is going to be so surreal... --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
Draven would still 65-35 Link, 24 hour match, or not. --- Proud supporter of DogFAQs |
Maybe
it's a good thing that this Draven and then PokeFAQs thing happened. I
basically don't care about the contest anymore, but with the start of
the semester it's probably good that I'm not paying so much attention to
it. --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
has Wylvane always been this obnoxious or is it just the Pokemon stuff making him be this way. usually I don't notice it so much --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
Wylvane just tries to push people's buttons. I thought people knew this by now! --- http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg |
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