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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1131
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superange128 posted... Fayt_Esteed posted...How could a match this hyped be so much of a dud...? This is the major reason for the mass epidemic of stallfests and weak trends, by the way - TWELVE HOUR MATCHES. They have not helped make matches exciting - in fact, it has for the most part stopped matches from being interesting. Twelve hour matches are, in my estimation, even worse than multiways for entertainment factor in these contests. They suck. People may protest, "no one wants to see 24 hour matches like Joanna/Cortana again!" That's true - but replacing 24 hours of Joanna/Cortana with 12 hours of Squall/Rayman/Commander Video followed by 12 hours of Amaterasu/Vyse/Adol Christin is just as bad, if not worse. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... This is the major reason for the mass epidemic of stallfests and weak trends, by the way - TWELVE HOUR MATCHES. They have not helped make matches exciting - in fact, it has for the most part stopped matches from being interesting. objection FF7 looks more awful in 12 hour matches, which is hilarious |
Yeah, whatever. On to the next one, please. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
That's
very very true. Big comebacks and big shifts come from switching
between day and night votes. The 12 hour matches stop such things in
their tracks. Even today- if today had been a 24 hour match, Crono would have probably taken a lead with the night vote, only to get buried under Pikachu's day vote. Pikachu's final victory margin in absolute votes would likely be a fair amount less than the 1900 he has now. (because if you let this match continue until noon tomorrow, Crono will probably get like 12-14 hours of cuts). It's even possible that Pikachu's lead would be small enough in such a 24 hour match that a rally could materialize out of left field. If Crono/Sonic were a day match, it would have looked a lot like today- an easy win for Sonic as he just crushes. Same with Crono/Vincent 2007- instead of having one of the greatest trend shifts ever, you'd just have Vincent pulling out a solid 53/47 win. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Changing the match start time from 12 Eastern to 5 Eastern might keep comebacks alive. Of course it would be a really awkward time to start polls too... --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
What's
the age demographic on this site? Pokemon are stupid strong this
contest. Or has everyone just turned on what used to be strong
characters just to see them lose? --- Always move fast, you never know who's catching up! |
Then00bAvenger posted... Changing the match start time from 12 Eastern to 5 Eastern might keep comebacks alive. 5:00 AM EST? --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
And PM. They are 12 hour matches after all --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Even
more than that, how many classic matches do you really get out of the
12 hour system? Can you ever see a Frog/Master Chief again in a 12 hour
match? How about a Halo/StarCraft? What if FFX/MM had been a 12 hour
match? Half day matches are a blight on the contest and need to go. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
In
24-hour matches, 5:00 AM EST would probably increase the strength of
the ASV. I don't think it will do much to help out the ASV since only
about 10% of this site is under 18. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
At least Crono is making a big case for winning 1v1 the more percentage he gains on Pikachu here. A moral victory I guess. |
It's at the point where the 12 hour day match could go either way, I think. Crono would be the favorite to win 24 and night --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Right now, Crono needs 79.7% of Magus's votes to tie the Pika. --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
And
heck, just from a personal perspective - I'd rather see Big Boss
narrowly lose a 1v1 24 hour match to Luigi than watch him win that 12
hour day match against Luigi and an anchor. There is nothing uplifting
at all in that latter case, just an unsatisfying finish where no one's
happy. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5241.jpg http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5242.jpg I don't know wtf that Blue picture is but for the first time I'm seeing the tiniest glimmer of hope for yo's Nathan Drake upset. (lol G&W is gonna get obliterated) --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I don't know why but I can't look at that Blue picture without cracking up. And I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
it's Blue from Pokemon LeafGreen artwork --- Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username. |
Xuxon submitted that same Blue pic, so it might be his. Anyway, I didn't want to outright sabotage Blue, but I knew what his best picture was and purposely chose to give him something else. ...I suppose that's sabotage. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif |
He
just looks really goofy and unappealing to me personally. I doubt he
can come close to dropping this just because Nathan Drake likely is just
not strong enough to be a threat, but Blue might underwhelm a smidge. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Though imagine if Nathan Drake *did* give Blue a scare... but came up just short as the night vote was favoring him...! twelve hour matchesssssssssss --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I think Blue looks baller as hell there, and that's coming from someone who'd love to see him place third. He reminds me of Nester from Nintendo Power in that pic, for some reason. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
He's...
colorful I guess? Which helps because of the darkness of Drake and
G&W (obviously). I heard some people saying they liked Lugia's picture though so there's clearly no accounting for taste. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Lugia's picture was fine until it got put up on the blue background and you couldn't see anything. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
Well
looks like I was wrong about Crono busting 80+% on Magus. How the hell
is that chump holding up this well?? ("well" being relative of course) --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
We get to watch our Division Winner in 2hrs --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMcwhStCYAAr-mC.jpg Dallas Cowboys and Mavs |
lightsout06 posted... We get to watch our Division Winner in 2hrs what, we already watched our division winner beat Crono ;) |
Karma Hunter posted... The percentage of Magus's votes that Crono needs to win this match discounting other extraneous factors (pic factor, vacuum theory, change in trends over 24 hours) looks to be about 80% right now. Seems unlikely to me, but Magus should theoretically be much more closely related to Crono than Bowser to Luigi. As degree of SFF and degree of overlap are almost certainly correlated, Cloud/Seph probably overlap the least possible for two characters from the same game, and even they overlapped 70%. So 70% is a bare minimum when talking about two characters from the same game. When talking about characters from the same game, overlap is naturally going to be very, very high. Much higher than 70% most of the time. Luigi/Ness is likely much less overlap because Luigi gets almost all his strength from SMB while Ness gets it from Smash. I'm sure that Ness cost Luigi the Big Boss match, but that's only because it was so close. Luigi/Ness shouldn't have an extreme degree of overlap. It just wouldn't make sense. Compare to Fox/Wolf - I'd be pretty damn confident those two overlap 85+% at the minimum (and I'd estimate closer to 100% than 85%). Just how completely Fox buried Wolf only emphasizes that - we don't know Wolf's strength but it's highly likely there was an ungodly amount of SFF there. I don't think Crono/Magus have Fox/Wolf overlap, but at minimum it should be 80%, and I wouldn't be shocked if it was like 90%. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Well,
bringing up how Cloud/Seph was actually more like an 80% split earlier
in the topic if it had been a three-way match, I'm now more confident
that Crono/Magus could easily be an 80% overlap. I'd been using
Luigi/Bowser as my baseline which isn't as good a comparison as
Cloud/Seph. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Match XCVIII: (2) Sora vs. (14) Gilgamesh vs. (20) Yoshimitsu Previous Round Sora 46.81% Scorpion 35.00% Aya Brea 18.18% Gilgamesh 51.75% Booker DeWitt 36.73% Kaim Argonar 11.53% Yoshimitsu 42.66% Lu Bu 32.64% Groose 24.70% Analysis Sora has a good chance at getting a higher percentage than what he got in the first round. Scorpion would crush these opponents and I do not think Aya Brea would lose badly against these two characters. With that said I was not impressed with his performance last round and given what Pikachu did Sora may struggle to win, even with Blue likely to be in the poll. For second I believe Gilgamesh will be able to take it. His first round performance was more impressive and Elizabeth looked a bit better in her second round match and while she is likely stronger than Booker it does give Gilgamesh a higher ceiling to work with. Overall I am quite impressed with Gilgamesh having some strength; I always thought he would be one of those board 8 flops. As much as I would love to say this was Yoshimitsu this was all Groose flopping. Like with Midna in 2007 the supposed Zelda drones did not show up to give him the win. Yoshimitsu was not able to distance himself enough from Lu Bu and while he is a mainstay in two fighting series the characters, including Nightmare in this contest have not shown to have much strength. Sora has a good chance at breaking 50% in this match and would likely need a good performance in order to survive against a LFF Pikachu next round. Yoshimitsu may have a chance at second, but I do not see it happening. charmander6000s Bracket: Sora > Groose and Booker DeWitt charmander6000s Prediction: Sora 54.34%, Gilgamesh 25.33%, Yoshimitsu 20.33% --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 92/117 Today's Picks: Leon Kennedy and Pikachu |
Karma Hunter posted... That's not actually 70% relative to Link or Snake, which is the real question at hand - Cloud would obviously get a higher percentage of Seph's votes if, for example, Seph had eliminated Snake and then lost on the next to last day. Hmm, interesting math. nintendogirl1 posted... Cloud got 70% of Spehiroth's votes. The day after. With the other entrants exactly the same. Repeating myself, but yeah Cloud/Seph probably have the least overlap of any two entities like that you can think of. Especially since back then, they had both monstrously powerful fanbases of their own. And at their peak those fanbases essentially encompassed the whole site. Nowadays Cloud/Seph probably overlap a lot more, because their fanbases have shrunk a ton. And FF7's power base has shrunk a ton - I'm sure FF7's playrate has dropped like a rock on this site. This site used to be essentially built on people looking for FF7 FAQs, it's playrate was close to 100% back then. Now it might be like...I dunno...maybe 70-75%? That's why as others have said, it would have a legit chance to lose to RBY these days. RBY's playrate is likely over 90% (and obviously it's fans are very loyal, as we see again and again from PokeFEAR). Chrono Trigger was more of a niche fanbase to begin with when compared relative to FF7, and it's probably just plain niche now in absolute terms. There should be zero doubt that Crono/Magus overlap more than Cloud/Seph. Again, just about any pair from the same game would overlap more than Cloud/Seph back when Cloud/Seph were both god-tier on this site. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Nathan Drake, lol? Or just... guy in a suit. gogo modern characters! --- ... as if rights are like muscles - the more you use it, the better it gets. Indeed he may be exercising his first amendment-- but he's an IDIOT! - A. Scalia |
Hell yeah pikachu!! Pokemon has literally saved my bracket. Squirtle > Dante, Pikachu > Crono, Blue > Fox... hopefully Charizard > MM The gift that keeps giving. |
Karma Hunter posted... Well, bringing up how Cloud/Seph was actually more like an 80% split earlier in the topic if it had been a three-way match, I'm now more confident that Crono/Magus could easily be an 80% overlap. I'd been using Luigi/Bowser as my baseline which isn't as good a comparison as Cloud/Seph. Yes I just saw that, I'm reading through the topic now. I don't think I really agree with your math assumptions there - I don't think that's a good way to compare. I think the 70% overlap figure is probably more accurate in terms of general overlap. However the notion of the overlap being greater if Seph had been eliminated after Snake is probably true. That's a very good point. In any case I have very little doubt Crono/Magus overlap is greater than 80%. That said, this is still a terrible performance by Crono. He'd beat Pikachu 1v1, even in a day match...but it would be close. That's pretty bad for a supposed Noble Niner. Though if Squirtle ends up putting a big scare into Cloud, this will look better, I suppose. I don't think Squirtle will actually beat Cloud as it's a 24 hour match - that should help Cloud immensely. But I think in a 12 hour match Squirtle could maybe pull it off. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Whos stronger out of pickachu and squirtle? |
CP724 posted... Whos stronger out of pickachu and squirtle? good question! Pikachu's probably the safer bet right now - I'll take his recent accomplishments over 58% on Dante - but it would be close either way. if people are still mad at Pokemon next contest, we can just put Squirtle/Blastoise/Pikachu/Magikarp/Bulbasaur in the same chunk of the bracket to keep them contained and fight for the #2 spot behind Charizard. =) --- Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham We'll get 'em next year. |
round 2 bonus match: Blastoise/Ivysaur/Charmander |
Well, Round 2 has pretty much killed me --- Bracket for the Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_code?c=5yiset6iJe2HCg87EdqV1-UnpdF4VgRZC5 |
Company/series
based brackets are not the way. We saw that in 2004. Pokemon just needs
to be limited in scale a bit. Part of the problem is the massive amount
of characters but even in 2003, you could have plopped FF7 characters
all around the bracket and had the Sweet Sixteen be half FF7. That's not
desirable. As a surely irrelevant aside, 6 of the 9 division finals this year will involve Pokemon. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... I don't think Shepard looks good now, actually. I think that performance was terrible. I was thinking it was indicative of Aeris's strength back when it looked like FF7 had maybe only lost half a step. Now, with Cloud seriously being considered to lose to Squirtle? Shepard barely beating Aeris is an embarrassment. Considering how beastly Tifa looked I don't think you can draw a good correlation there. The FF7 females have never correlated well with the FF7 males, including in terms of trends etc. They don't get the same huge amount of anti-votes. And with low vote totals anti-votes being a higher number of total votes is a huge reason why the FF7 males have tanked. Karma Hunter posted... There are lots of great reasons for the Pokefanbase to stick with either Pikachu or Blue. That's why the leeching is going to be so devastating. Indeed, I don't see either the rat or Gary Oak folding. However, I don't see Sora getting a blowout there. Both the rat and Blue should have good bandwagons going for them which will counter the massive LFF somewhat. Sora should win but I doubt it's a walkover. Also I should note Sora has a great chance of looking terrible tonight, because people really don't seem to adjust their Oracle predictions for Sora enough based on day vs. night match. How horrific Kingdom Hearts is at night matches cannot be emphasized. As unlike other entities that usually have a god-tier day vote (e.g. Zelda, Pokemon), Kingdom Heart's does not have a ridiculously strong Power Hour(s) - in fact it plain sucks in that time. This makes its night vote especially putrid. LeonhartFour posted... Current result is good one for Pokemon, says stats topic regular "Current" meme is played out, says stats topic regular >_> <_< --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Going into the final hour: Crono at 46.18% on Pikachu Crono needs Magus to split 76.78% or better to win 1v1. Come on, Crono, you can use this hour to make those look better! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Karma Hunter posted... Company/series based brackets are not the way. We saw that in 2004. Pokemon just needs to be limited in scale a bit. Part of the problem is the massive amount of characters but even in 2003, you could have plopped FF7 characters all around the bracket and had the Sweet Sixteen be half FF7. That's not desirable. huh Division 1 doesn't Division 3 doesn't Division 4 doesn't Division 7 has 0 Pokemon entries left that's 5/9 |
Indeed, I misallocated - forgetting that Pikachu and Blue are in the same division final. I would hope the point is still well-taken. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... Indeed, I misallocated - forgetting that Pikachu and Blue are in the same division final. What point?> --- Get the X out. Vinateri was using his god powers on the Pats and then was like "Wait I'm a Colt now lol" and now you have it. |
Company/series
based brackets are not the way. We saw that in 2004. Pokemon just needs
to be limited in scale a bit. Part of the problem is the massive amount
of characters but even in 2003, you could have plopped FF7 characters
all around the bracket and had the Sweet Sixteen be all FF7. That's not
desirable. Even if this was a 128 character bracket going by seeds only Lugia, Jigglypuff and Magikarp would have missed the bracket. The main issue is that the board had too much control with nominations. Just like how the early brackets were not overrun by FFVII characters non-Board 8 Pokemon fans would be too split to include as many as we got. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 92/117 Today's Picks: Leon Kennedy and Pikachu |
Final Fantasy has characters in Division 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 finals (probably, unless Squall loses) guys, Final Fantasy has too many characters in these contests also, how did Board 8 control the nomination process more this time around |
Well
the seeds are obviously rigged to fit themes, so I don't know if we can
take them very seriously. Regardless you can't really put the genie
back into the bottle, so to speak. The solution to Aeris making the
Sweet Sixteen two years straight and Tifa nearly beating Samus shouldn't
have been them missing the bracket in the immediately following years.
Success shouldn't be punished either. I'd rather simply limit us to a
traditional 64 character bracket and have nominations weed out the less
popular characters naturally. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
People who complain about Pokιmon are as bad as people who complain about LoL. BREAKING NEWS, popular characters do well in popularity contests, I mean holy f*** this is just the hardest thing ever to figure out. --- Get the X out. Vinateri was using his god powers on the Pats and then was like "Wait I'm a Colt now lol" and now you have it. |
Karma Hunter posted... Well the seeds are obviously rigged to fit themes, so I don't know if we can take them very seriously. Regardless you can't really put the genie back into the bottle, so to speak. The solution to Aeris making the Sweet Sixteen two years straight and Tifa nearly beating Samus shouldn't have been them missing the bracket in the immediately following years. Success shouldn't be punished either. I'd rather simply limit us to a traditional 64 character bracket and have nominations weed out the less popular characters naturally. I agree with this. Allen really needs to drop the more-is-better idea. 128 characters/games is already too much, 243 is just dumb. --- Get the X out. Vinateri was using his god powers on the Pats and then was like "Wait I'm a Colt now lol" and now you have it. |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
foxhead84 posted... xp1337 posted...Going into the final hour: Uhh..where do the rest of Magus' votes go? --- Nominate Spring Breeze Dancin' from Mystical Ninja Starring Goemon for Character Battle IX! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJrnlFW4IMc |
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