Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1131

#201 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/26/2013 12:57:07 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
A 13 vote gain was enough for Pikachu to gain 0.02%? ok...


It is when Magus is only pulling in 20 votes total! Pikachu's 131 votes that update accounted for 48.7% of the total votes on the update, which was better than Pikachu's percentage in the match, so he went up slightly.
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#202 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/26/2013 1:00:59 PM | message detail
Current result is good one for Pokemon, says stats topic regular

quick we need Vincent/Crono comparisons
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#203 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/26/2013 1:11:27 PM | message detail
Trend chart from the night match:

Time | Shadow | Leon | Gordon | Votes
0:05 | 29.99% | 39.62% | 30.39% | 737
1:00 | 27.59% | 38.92% | 33.49% | 4831
2:00 | 26.65% | 39.45% | 33.90% | 2578
3:00 | 26.88% | 39.49% | 33.63% | 2013
4:00 | 25.05% | 43.47% | 31.48% | 1585
5:00 | 25.39% | 41.60% | 33.01% | 1351
6:00 | 24.29% | 41.95% | 33.76% | 1330
7:00 | 28.87% | 38.82% | 32.32% | 1507
8:00 | 27.77% | 38.90% | 33.33% | 1707
9:00 | 27.46% | 38.03% | 34.51% | 1930
10:00 | 24.96% | 39.73% | 35.31% | 1971
11:00 | 27.58% | 39.24% | 33.18% | 1998
12:00 | 27.31% | 40.09% | 32.60% | 1908

Leon does his best work in the dead of night. Shadow does well with the morning vote. Gordon's pretty consistent all the way through.

X-Stats:

Leon Kennedy – 50.00%
Gordon Freeman – 45.71%
Shadow the Hedgehog – 40.30%
Albert Wesker – 35.40%
Simon Belmont – 32.80%
Yu Narukami – 31.90%
Oliver – 28.82%
Kat – 21.10%
Hades – 19.53%

Leon's prediction percentage was 28.26%
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#204 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 1:11:52 PM | message detail
Pikachu's lead is around Crono's peak lead on Vincent. At around the same amount of time into the match too. With very similar hourly percentages as well. From memory:

1:00 | 56.5
2:00 | 54.5
3:00 | 52
4:00 | 51

And you know what happens next:

5:00 | 43
6:00 | 41
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#205 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/26/2013 1:14:29 PM | message detail
Current X-Stats:

Pikachu – 50.00%
Crono – 45.12%
Lloyd Irving – 30.86%
Big Daddy – 30.70%
Missile – 21.13%
Magus – 20.67%
Sarah Kerrigan – 19.83%
Hal “Otacon” Emmerich – 17.15%
Jade Curtiss – 11.43%
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#206 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/26/2013 1:15:28 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
I'd like to take a break from all this PokeFEAR for a moment to ask about the next match I'm still up in the air about.

I've got Auron>L-Block>Ezio right now. Does that sound right? I'm sure Auron will pull first, but I can't get a very good read on the other two characters. L-Block wins according to 2010 xstats, but I'm sure the joke has fallen a bit. On the other hand, I feel like Auron is going to suck up a bit of the "badass" votes that tend to go to Ezio.


L-Block was also behind roided Charizard, so it's overrated in the stats.

That's a tough one for second, though, as Ezio didn't look great, but at least his fodder is actually recognizable. I'm leaning L-Block due to standing out more, but for all we know Auron will get last because ChaosFAQs.
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#207 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/26/2013 1:18:55 PM | message detail
Missile – 21.13%
Magus – 20.67%

YES
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#208 | thesnob | Posted 8/26/2013 1:18:58 PM | message detail
I've gotta say, I've really enjoyed this character battle. It's done an awesome job of showing why you don't do simple majority for 3 way contests. I just love seeing a 40-40-20 split. Or a contest like today where the Chrono Trigger vote is split.

If you must do a 3 way contest, the right way to do it is let people assign scores to each character, or simply let people vote for as many or as few as they want. These are range voting and approval voting. But there's no reason to do 3 way character battles on this site!
#209 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 1:24:05 PM | message detail
http://www.neoseeker.com/forums/1266/t120510-all-go-www-gamefaqs-com-vote-crono-plz-mario-vs-crono-contest

Wow, look what a Google search for "vote for Crono on Gamefaqs" turned up. This is a rally thread for Crono in Mario/Crono 2002!
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#210 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/26/2013 1:27:49 PM | message detail
Love stuff like that.
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#211 | StarStormScream | Posted 8/26/2013 1:30:06 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Current X-Stats:

Pikachu – 50.00%
Crono – 45.12%
Lloyd Irving – 30.86%
Big Daddy – 30.70%
Missile – 21.13%
Magus – 20.67%
Sarah Kerrigan – 19.83%
Hal “Otacon” Emmerich – 17.15%
Jade Curtiss – 11.43%


There's just something really wrong about about Lloyd being 3rd strongest in anything, haha. Everyone below him gets booted from all contests, that mean you too Magus :P
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#212 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 1:30:37 PM | message detail
Missile>Magus...?
*facepalm*
#213 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/26/2013 1:31:59 PM | message detail
http://i.minus.com/jDt6qg7333Q8B.PNG

If only we knew the answer
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#214 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 1:32:10 PM | message detail
The first 2 pages on Google turns up:

2 rally topics for Crono/L-Block 2008
2 rally topics for Crono/Vincent 2008
2 rally topics for Mario/Crono 2003
1 rally topic for Mario/Crono 2005
1 rally topic for Crono/Sonic 2006
1 rally topic for Mario/Crono 2002
1 rally topic for Crono/Lara Croft 2002
1 rally topic for Crono/Tom Nook 2003
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#215 | spooky96 | Posted 8/26/2013 1:33:34 PM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
http://i.minus.com/jDt6qg7333Q8B.PNG

If only we knew the answer


WOAH.
#216 | Kibago | Posted 8/26/2013 1:35:46 PM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
http://i.minus.com/jDt6qg7333Q8B.PNG

If only we knew the answer


literally people wanting to vote for crono can't spell his name
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#217 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/26/2013 1:36:36 PM | message detail
The avatar makes that post because it perfectly mirrors the distraught emotions he's feeling at not knowing how to support Chrono at gamefaqs.com
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#218 | foxhead84 | Posted 8/26/2013 1:38:48 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
The first 2 pages on Google turns up:

1 rally topic for Crono/Tom Nook 2003


Tom Nook... WTF???
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#219 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/26/2013 1:39:36 PM | message detail
So if we assume that everyone is consistent, Cloud should sneak by Squirtle. IF he's consistent. Of course that also assumes a consistent Dante.

Also Lloyd did pretty well this year. Hopefully the crazy tales hate will die down a bit. Four characters, three of them got second. Not too shabby. Of course Jade is pretty damn bad.
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#220 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/26/2013 1:40:22 PM | message detail
Lloyd and Kratos have always been respectable fodder. Won't stop people from hating the fact that they get in every year.
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#221 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/26/2013 1:44:36 PM | message detail
Tales is like Final Fantasy so 4 characters in 3 games is not too bad.
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#222 | StarStormScream | Posted 8/26/2013 1:48:46 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Lloyd and Kratos have always been respectable fodder. Won't stop people from hating the fact that they get in every year.


Hey, I'm one of the guys that feels he's solid gatekeeping material, hence my comment about those below him needing be gone. Plus if we have another contest anytime soon, we know that Lloyd & Kratos won't be going anywhere anytime soon thanks to the HD PS3 port early next year.
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#223 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/26/2013 1:51:10 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Missile>Magus...?
*facepalm*


lol yeah, that cracked me up xD
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#224 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/26/2013 2:08:49 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Missile>Magus...?
*facepalm*


DogFAQs to the rescue! XD
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#225 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 8/26/2013 2:56:20 PM | message detail
So what are we thinking about MM/Zard/Zero now? Solid lock for Zard or will it be close?
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Character Battle IX Bracket: 103/126
#226 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/26/2013 3:02:21 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
110----1------------100.00
109----1------------100.00
108----0------------0.00
107----3------------66.67
106----2------------50.00
105----4------------50.00
104----11----------81.82
103----12----------91.67
102----19----------84.21
101----48----------87.50
100----61----------85.25
99------80----------85.00
98------99----------81.82
97------94----------77.66
96------117--------76.07
95------130--------67.69
94------161--------67.08
93------165--------53.94
92------214--------43.46
91------266--------46.99
90------295--------41.69
89------311--------40.84
88------392--------41.84
87------425--------35.29
86------475--------32.63
85------508--------32.87
84------499--------32.06
83------542--------30.81
82------548--------31.57
81------578--------30.10
80------593--------26.64
79------586--------25.43
78------515--------26.02
77------562--------22.06
76------477--------22.22
75------466--------25.54
74------437--------26.54
73------413--------19.37
72------393--------18.83
71------311--------18.97
70------340--------22.65
69------330--------19.39
68------271--------15.87
67------260--------20.00
66------216--------16.67
65------221--------21.27
64------198--------18.69
63------202--------14.85
62------162--------16.05
61------172--------10.47
60------184--------15.22
59------140--------12.86
58------139--------10.79
57------154--------14.29
56------110--------11.82
55------102--------14.71
54------125--------17.60
53------89----------14.61
52------90----------13.33
51------98----------17.35
50------65----------13.85
49------68----------11.76
48------57----------12.28
47------68----------8.82
46------54----------12.96
45------56----------7.14
44------52----------7.69
43------60----------10.00
42------31----------19.35
41------36----------8.33
40------30----------3.33
39------30----------3.33
38------16----------6.25
37------25----------4.00
36------26----------7.69
35------24----------12.50
34------14----------21.43
33------12----------0.00
32------9------------11.11
31------13----------7.69
30------8------------0.00
29------8------------0.00
28------4------------25.00
27------4------------0.00
26------1------------0.00
25------12----------8.33

Omitted scores got it wrong.

We lose a handful of brackets near the top but largely they get the match right. Prediction percentage falls pretty rapidly since the middle tiers struggle with the match and only around 30% of them get it right.

6 people fell off the Top 49. transience, Yleffl, Palinchron, AlmightyDrizzle, Darkside_84 and ps2rulezzz did not have Leon winning.

4 people got it wrong and survived. Billy_Gates, oblongman7, JordockX and Lucky_Gamer also did not have Leon winning.
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#227 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/26/2013 3:15:31 PM | message detail
The Owner of FF9 posted...
So what are we thinking about MM/Zard/Zero now? Solid lock for Zard or will it be close?


I've taken Charizard to win since I first made my bracket, and the strong showing of Pokemon only clinches it for me.
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#228 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/26/2013 3:41:43 PM | message detail
honestly, I feel that Charizard has a greater chance of losing in round 2 than round 3
#229 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 3:41:47 PM | message detail
Sigh.....

I'm sorry that this will sound really whiny, but these contests are pretty much dead to me. They've been dying a slow death since 2010. Our votals have fallen in half and more. We returned to 1v1 in 2010, but the gimmicks have returned with the rivalry contest and this 3-way contest. The votals have continued to fall.

Crono lost to Missingno and now Pikachu, but while Missingno was an exceptional force and created a beautiful match with very high votals with Crono, this match today is a 3-way major SFF match, in which Crono is getting killed by the day match and by LFF. Pikachu is not exceptional- he's been around in these contests since 2002. He's stronger now than before, but there's no reason to think he's significantly stronger than Charizard or other Pokemon, if he's stronger than them at all.

The fact that it looks like Crono would win 1v1 is not comforting. When will Crono next get a proper 1v1 match? He hasn't been in a 24 hour, 1v1 match since 2006. Since Crono/Sonic. Which was, probably, the most painful loss for me. But it was a fair loss, and as much as I hate Sonic, well, losing is part of the game.

Meanwhile, Draven is going to steamroll this contest by easily rallying/stuffing more votes than are coming from GameFAQs.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#230 | ZFS | Posted 8/26/2013 3:47:34 PM | message detail
AMario getting 60% on Crono I like these chances!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#231 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 3:49:01 PM | message detail
2 cuts in a row for Crono!

Also Charizard > Mario prepare yourself.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#232 | spooky96 | Posted 8/26/2013 3:50:09 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
honestly, I feel that Charizard has a greater chance of losing in round 2 than round 3


I was thinking this too.
#233 | ZFS | Posted 8/26/2013 3:50:10 PM | message detail
That would be the definite end of contests
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#234 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/26/2013 3:53:17 PM | message detail
random: Cloud vs Samus 1v1, who do you take now
#235 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/26/2013 3:55:59 PM | message detail | (edited)
#236 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 3:54:25 PM | message detail
Oh, it's Mario/Charizard/Samus. Well, Samus is probably going to be almost as big an albatross around Mario's neck as Magus is today. Namely because Mario's not going to be able to get close to the 76% Crono has today.

In that case......

Crono got 53.58% on Pikachu in 2008.
Mario got 53.59% on Charizard in 2010.

Similar SFF albatrosses. Similar Pokemon boost?
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#237 | spooky96 | Posted 8/26/2013 3:54:28 PM | message detail
Cloud, without any doubt.
#238 | ZFS | Posted 8/26/2013 3:59:28 PM | message detail
I don't think Charizard comes away benefitting from the same stuff the current Pokemon have enjoyed. I'm not gonna argue too much, because it's pointless with Pokemon since there's no consistency, but an all Nintendo poll, with two stronger Nintendo characters, isn't the best situation for Pokemon. Of course, none of that matters with POKEMON DRONES, but I'll take Mario there all day I don't care for these bandwagons they got nothin' on Mario poll skills
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#239 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 4:10:42 PM | message detail
Crono has now cut 5 out of the last 6 updates.
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#240 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/26/2013 4:12:34 PM | message detail
And yet it only amounts to 14 votes because comebacks are s****y like that
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#241 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/26/2013 4:14:34 PM | message detail
How could a match this hyped be so much of a dud...?
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#242 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 4:15:47 PM | message detail
Pikachu by the hour vs. Crono:

1:00 | 55.73%
2:00 | 53.92%
3:00 | 54.70%
4:00 | 54.21%
5:00 | 55.03%
6:00 | 54.81%
7:00 | 51.58%
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#243 | superange128 | Posted 8/26/2013 4:19:37 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
How could a match this hyped be so much of a dud...?


Well there have been a whole bunch of hyped matches by the stats topic that end up being boring, including this contest

doesn't help that usually when LFF/SFF is active in the match comebacks/swings don't usually happen
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#244 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/26/2013 4:54:23 PM | message detail
remember when Pikachu couldn't break 55% on Parappa the Rapper?
you've come a long way, you little yellow rat
(just for fun, I want some hilarious projections based on 2002 Pikachu=2013 Pikachu)
#245 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/26/2013 4:56:19 PM | message detail
Pictures still aren't up. I wonder if Allen is scrambling to make a suitable picture for someone.
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#246 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/26/2013 5:04:38 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
WRT Fox getting most of his strength from Smash, which was brought up in the previous thread: That's probably true, else he wouldn't have gone MIA until 2007.


See, that's one of the advantages to having only been here since 2009--I can see the things that the old guard is too set in their ways to realize.


This also makes me think that Falco and Wolf are weak and/or susceptible to SFF...
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#247 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/26/2013 5:05:08 PM | message detail
(just for fun, I want some hilarious projections based on 2002 Pikachu=2013 Pikachu)

Not quite 2002, but here's a 2003 stat

Using a constant Pikachu and assuming no SFF Link is expected to get 95.45% on Magus (2003 Magus gets 93.49% on himself)
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#248 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/26/2013 5:08:47 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
2003 Magus gets 93.49% on himself


ahahahahahaha
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#249 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/26/2013 5:33:31 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
(just for fun, I want some hilarious projections based on 2002 Pikachu=2013 Pikachu)

Not quite 2002, but here's a 2003 stat

Using a constant Pikachu and assuming no SFF Link is expected to get 95.45% on Magus (2003 Magus gets 93.49% on himself)


I'm surprised you didn't go for the obvious Parappa vs Crono projections
#250 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 5:35:31 PM | message detail
Crono finally over 40%. That took way too long.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.