Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1131

#101 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/26/2013 10:35:25 AM | message detail
One Noble Niner dead.

EIGHT TO GO.
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#102 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 10:36:52 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Back over 39%. But you gotta cut, Crono, stalling isn't enough!

Technically!
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#103 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 10:36:59 AM | message detail
Cut #2 achieved.
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#104 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/26/2013 10:38:08 AM | message detail | (edited)
Well, that's one hell of an SFF here. Look at the match pic, Crono and Magus are making the same expression and looking in the same direction, while Pikachi stands out in the middle.

Still, this is a testament to how strong pokeFEAR is.
#105 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2013 10:44:32 AM | message detail | (edited)
Turning back to the math at hand, currently if you split Magus's votes 70/30 (this is about as much Bowser voters favored Luigi over Liquid back in 2008), Crono would currently have 48.07% on Pikachu. Upping or diminishing that proportion changes the match considerably as you might imagine.
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#106 | SnoicFactor | Posted 8/26/2013 10:41:39 AM | message detail
hahah crono would lose even with no magus
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nt
#107 | turbopuns | Posted 8/26/2013 10:47:27 AM | message detail
How (un)likely is Mewtwo > Sonic
#108 | Achromatic | Posted 8/26/2013 10:49:22 AM | message detail
Sonic has looked extremely, extremely good.

Pokefear is in full effect but Mewtwo will have to bring it.
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#109 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/26/2013 10:49:28 AM | message detail
how (un)likely is Pikachu > Sora/Squirtle > Cloud

how many times can we bet against RBY Pokemon and get mad when it burns
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#110 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 10:50:17 AM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
how (un)likely is Pikachu > Sora/Squirtle > Cloud

how many times can we bet against RBY Pokemon and get mad when it burns

Does this match even count?

Pikachu was the favorite!
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#111 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 10:50:55 AM | message detail
Pikachu > Mario > Vincent >>> Sonic. In terms of how much I like them.
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#112 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/26/2013 10:51:58 AM | message detail
Pobre Pobre C-man ;_;
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#113 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 10:58:35 AM | message detail
And there it is. Canada flips into Crono's column.
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#114 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/26/2013 10:59:17 AM | message detail
where is real YoBlazer, I need to know what this result says for Crono
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#115 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 11:00:30 AM | message detail
turbopuns posted...
How (un)likely is Mewtwo > Sonic


Hrm...round 3 matches start at 9 pm...?
It means...I need to wake up at 6.30 AM to prepare my rally (oh god why)
And then I need to go to work..

You know,if no one else considers doing a Mewtwo rally aside from me (and hoping it will work) I guess Sonic wins
But im still going to wake up early to at least try!
#116 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2013 11:00:33 AM | message detail
Sonic/Mewtwo is dependent on how Barret v Phoenix would go. Phoenix needs to beat Barret with 57.5% of the vote to get Sonic = Mewtwo. I don't think he can do that, personally. While Sonic should beat Mewtwo in a fair match considering all that, I am hesitant because I think Bowser hurts Sonic more than Mewtwo.
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#117 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 11:01:05 AM | message detail
every match is good news for crono

except his own

it's his curse
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#118 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 11:05:19 AM | message detail
Pikachu by the hour vs. Crono:

1:00 | 55.73%
2:00 | 53.92%
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#119 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 11:08:05 AM | message detail | (edited)
This match is also probably really bad news for Cloud.

If Crono came out and won, or preferably dominated, then Frog's 36% might not look as awful. But now?

what happened there
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#120 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/26/2013 11:08:41 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Sonic/Mewtwo is dependent on how Barret v Phoenix would go. Phoenix needs to beat Barret with 57.5% of the vote to get Sonic = Mewtwo. I don't think he can do that, personally. While Sonic should beat Mewtwo in a fair match considering all that, I am hesitant because I think Bowser hurts Sonic more than Mewtwo.


What does Vincent have to get on Barret for Mewtwo = Sonic?
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#121 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2013 11:09:41 AM | message detail
And if you want an explanation of why Bowser is worse for Sonic... I don't think a Pokemon has ever been SFFed by a Nintendo entity (weakened relative to other characters by fanbase splits yes, but that's not the same thing). Meanwhile Sonic, assuming that he was worth around 38% on Link last contest (a bit below bandwagoned Charizard), he got SFFed to the tune of 16 points on Link, not even breaking 30% against him. To put it in perspective, Sonic somehow got SFFed harder by Link than Luigi, which I didn't think possible.
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#122 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 11:09:41 AM | message detail
Based on Crono vs. Kerrigan/Missile, Pikachu wins with 51.38%.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#123 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2013 11:12:21 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Sonic/Mewtwo is dependent on how Barret v Phoenix would go. Phoenix needs to beat Barret with 57.5% of the vote to get Sonic = Mewtwo. I don't think he can do that, personally. While Sonic should beat Mewtwo in a fair match considering all that, I am hesitant because I think Bowser hurts Sonic more than Mewtwo.


What does Vincent have to get on Barret for Mewtwo = Sonic?


Vincent needs to get 53.5% on Barret to get Sonic = Mewtwo.
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#124 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/26/2013 11:13:18 AM | message detail
Just logged on.

LOL
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#125 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/26/2013 11:13:27 AM | message detail
KH I think we all know what I'm going to ask you for now.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/845

What does Mewtwo get on Sonic?

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~War~
#126 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/26/2013 11:15:49 AM | message detail
Aww yeah. Charizard coming for Mario.
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#127 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/26/2013 11:15:56 AM | message detail
And considering that Vincent wasn't actually hurt by his pic and has actually stayed the exact same strength as 2010, it's clear Mewtwo and Phoenix have boosted significantly and now Mewtwo's the clear favorite over Sonic!
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#128 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/26/2013 11:16:18 AM | message detail
Better luck next year, Crono.
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#129 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2013 11:16:39 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
KH I think we all know what I'm going to ask you for now.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/845

What does Mewtwo get on Sonic?


Mewtwo gets 79.4% on Sonic.
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#130 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 11:16:43 AM | message detail
So.....FFVII vs. RBY, what do you take?
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#131 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/26/2013 11:17:15 AM | message detail
In defence of Crono, it's looking like 1 on 1, he'd probably beat Pikachu with 52%.

In 2010, this happened:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3838

Yeah, that had sprite snake but it wasn't that imbalanced a picture because Snake also had his Brawl render in the background. Pikachu is a monster, Crono doesn't look too bad.
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#132 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 11:17:50 AM | message detail
RBY

I mean, maybe I try to talk myself into FFVII somehow, but deep down - RBY.
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#133 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/26/2013 11:18:05 AM | message detail
I would've taken RBY over FFVII before this contest because I don't trust Final Fantasy in a close match, but this contest just makes me more confident in it.
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~War~
#134 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2013 11:18:43 AM | message detail
I take RBY, but I would have done that pre-contest. This is merely making my upset special obvious. <_<
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#135 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/26/2013 11:18:49 AM | message detail
In defence of Crono, it's looking like 1 on 1, he'd probably beat Pikachu with 52%.

Crono isn't getting 100% of Magus' votes
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#136 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/26/2013 11:19:41 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
So.....FFVII vs. RBY, what do you take?


RBY easily at this point
#137 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 11:21:58 AM | message detail
By the end of this match, Crono will be considerably higher on Pikachu. If it were 24 hours, it would be even closer. Even now, if Bacon were to extend this match 12 more hours Crono would have a small chance of winning it.
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#138 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 11:22:46 AM | message detail
During the Blue/Fox/Wolf many people tried to epeculate how many of Wolf votes were supposed to go for Fox
I don't think there was a consensus for this,but 70% sounds about right?
#139 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2013 11:23:15 AM | message detail
The percentage of Magus's votes that Crono needs to win this match discounting other extraneous factors (pic factor, vacuum theory, change in trends over 24 hours) looks to be about 80% right now. Seems unlikely to me, but Magus should theoretically be much more closely related to Crono than Bowser to Luigi.

Then again, I saw people crediting Luigi with like 95% of Ness's votes against Big Boss when he'd honestly be lucky to get 70% so I feel there's a lot of crosstalk going on here.
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#140 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2013 11:26:14 AM | message detail
Also, characters like Fox/Wolf and Crono/Magus are going to be much more closely related than something like Luigi/Ness. I could *maybe* see something like 80% overlap for the former two, but not the latter - Earthbound is way too independent relative to the other two examples.
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#141 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 11:26:20 AM | message detail
Crono/Magus should be a really high percentage. It's a small fanbase- a single game. 80% sounds fairly reasonable.

I'm counting on the trends to raise Crono's percentage considerably here, but assuming I've called them right, Crono should win 1v1 against Pikachu easily in 24 hours or a night match, and probably in a day match.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#142 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/26/2013 11:27:41 AM | message detail
Nice, I needed this after fearfully taking Gordy over Leon in the Oracle last night.

Good result for Crono though.
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#143 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 11:29:49 AM | message detail
FWIW, Magus would need to split 84.37% or better for Crono to put Crono ahead at the moment.
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#144 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/26/2013 11:29:56 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
During the Blue/Fox/Wolf many people tried to epeculate how many of Wolf votes were supposed to go for Fox
I don't think there was a consensus for this,but 70% sounds about right?


70% is what I like to use based off the Battle Royale.

From day 3 to day 4, Cloud got 71.53% of Seph's votes, Snake got 16.73% and Link got 11.73%.

Given fluctuations, 70-75% seems about right for direct game/series SFF.
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#145 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/26/2013 11:31:04 AM | message detail
I voted for Magus and I would vote for 90% of the field, including Pika, over Crono.
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#146 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/26/2013 11:31:24 AM | message detail
And yeah, I think Pikachu does have a picture advantage, but it just something that happened and isn't anything to cry foul over. Crono and Magus both look quite good actually, it's just that the eye is drawn to all that bright yellow in the middle. It might not even be as big of advantage if Pikachu were off to the side; he seems to pop out that much more as the middle entrant.

Really wouldn't have mattered though.
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#147 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/26/2013 11:31:44 AM | message detail
Is it bad that all I can think of is "Man, 1v1 this would've been the greatest dumb upset pick"

With Magus here it just kinda felt like a foregone conclusion.
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#148 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/26/2013 11:32:08 AM | message detail
Crono and Magus have to be two of the most closely overlapping characters there are. I would not be surprised if Crono took in 90% of Magus's votes. I think if you took away Crono, a larger proportion of votes would go to Pikachu, but Magus doesn't have the broader appeal Crono does. The people voting for Magus in this match are the hardcore Chrono Trigger fans, no-one else. Yeah, Crono would beat Pikachu. It's close, but in 2010 Pikachu looked just shy of Sephiroth.

Remember when he got 30% on Fox?
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#149 | swordz9 | Posted 8/26/2013 11:33:01 AM | message detail
Just got on and I see Pikachu stomping Crono as expected. I didn't think he'd have this big of a lead this soon though especially with Magus seeming like he's being Wolf'd.
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#150 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2013 11:35:58 AM | message detail | (edited)
nintendogirl1 posted...
Nanis23 posted...
During the Blue/Fox/Wolf many people tried to epeculate how many of Wolf votes were supposed to go for Fox
I don't think there was a consensus for this,but 70% sounds about right?


70% is what I like to use based off the Battle Royale.

From day 3 to day 4, Cloud got 71.53% of Seph's votes, Snake got 16.73% and Link got 11.73%.

Given fluctuations, 70-75% seems about right for direct game/series SFF.


That's not actually 70% relative to Link or Snake, which is the real question at hand - Cloud would obviously get a higher percentage of Seph's votes if, for example, Seph had eliminated Snake and then lost on the next to last day.

Relative to his closest competitor, Snake, Cloud got 81.04% of Sephiroth's votes. Relative to Link, Cloud got 85.91% of Seph's votes.
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