Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1131

#1 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:37:05 AM | message detail
Fight On.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#2 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:37:47 AM | message detail
but the future refused to change
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#3 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/26/2013 9:39:24 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
but the future refused to change


*Lavos theme changes into Pika Pika*
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#4 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 9:39:40 AM | message detail
Also 3-ways and 4-ways suck. Snake > Link > Mario would be so hollow, wouldn't it?
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#5 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:40:30 AM | message detail
It'd feel hollow to me, but hey a lot of other people would want to see it!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#6 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/26/2013 9:40:36 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Also 3-ways and 4-ways suck. Snake > Link > Mario would be so hollow, wouldn't it?


4-ways were what got Crono into a contest final...
#7 | pjbasis | Posted 8/26/2013 9:40:36 AM | message detail
#8 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 9:41:42 AM | message detail
Crono got to a semifinal and a main bracket final in 1v1. Those were better than him getting tripled or something as an afterthought in the 2k8 final.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#9 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/26/2013 9:41:55 AM | message detail
Wow. Just wow. How do updates like that happen?
#10 | -Zelmor- | Posted 8/26/2013 9:42:22 AM | message detail
Pika Pika, rise to 50% now, please.
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Man is not the creature of circumstances. Circumstances are the creatures of man.
#11 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/26/2013 9:43:35 AM | message detail
PIIIIIIIIIIIII-KAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#12 | KommunistKoala | Posted 8/26/2013 9:43:43 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Also 3-ways and 4-ways suck. Snake > Link > Mario would be so hollow, wouldn't it?


Don't you mean Draven > Mario > Snake
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#13 | Gatarix | Posted 8/26/2013 9:43:43 AM | message detail
hey guys I voted for Magus am I doing it right

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{Drakeryn}
#14 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:44:18 AM | message detail
PI-KA-CHUUU!!

Next up, Sora!
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#15 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:44:20 AM | message detail
Gatarix posted...
hey guys I voted for Magus am I doing it right


Yes.
#16 | JJH777 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:44:26 AM | message detail
Wow this is disappointing. Unless you give 100% of Magus's votes to Crono he still loses... Also Cloud is so dead on this site.
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#17 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/26/2013 9:44:36 AM | message detail
KommunistKoala posted...
red sox 777 posted...
Also 3-ways and 4-ways suck. Snake > Link > Mario would be so hollow, wouldn't it?


Don't you mean Draven > Mario > Snake


Psh. More like Draven > Charizard > Pikachu with the way things are going right now.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#18 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 9:45:16 AM | message detail
Crono's doing a lot better in the Americas at least. Thinking he can flip Canada into his column by the end of the poll.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#19 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/26/2013 9:45:17 AM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
Gatarix posted...
hey guys I voted for Magus am I doing it right


Yes.

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Brawl FC - 1332 8069 6690
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#20 | pjbasis | Posted 8/26/2013 9:46:30 AM | message detail
#21 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:47:11 AM | message detail
Crono cut.

pikachu power hour over 15 minutes early
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#22 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 9:47:33 AM | message detail
A CUT!
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#23 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/26/2013 9:47:45 AM | message detail
Well then. That came out of nowhere. More of those please. Lots more.
#24 | Achromatic | Posted 8/26/2013 9:47:46 AM | message detail
CRONO GOT HIS NOBLE NINE PANTS ON.
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!
#25 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/26/2013 9:47:57 AM | message detail
Wow, the rat fell off.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
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#26 | Achromatic | Posted 8/26/2013 9:48:34 AM | message detail
(Of note I am aware that a comeback is EXTREMELY unlikely, but it is just nice to see that Crono doesn't feel like completely jobbing)
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!
#27 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 9:48:49 AM | message detail
That was the best update of the match for both Crono and Magus. Weird.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#28 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/26/2013 9:48:55 AM | message detail
Thing to remember in future SFF matches like this: Third place is going to lose the board vote since most regulars here will focus on the one with an actual chance instead, and then the casual votes will balance that back out. So the SFFer is most likely going to overperform for the first ten or so minutes.
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#29 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:48:56 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Well then. That came out of nowhere. More of those please. Lots more.

Let's not kid ourselves here! Pikachu is going to gain like 40 next update.

Crono has surprised me before, but getting himself out of this might top the list.

Or not. That Vincent match so great.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#30 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/26/2013 9:49:23 AM | message detail
WRT Fox getting most of his strength from Smash, which was brought up in the previous thread: That's probably true, else he wouldn't have gone MIA until 2007.
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#31 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/26/2013 9:49:27 AM | message detail
Also, uh-oh, Pikachu got cut.

Time to rally on reddit to save him!
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#32 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:50:12 AM | message detail
Scarlettail posted...
Excellent performance by Pikachu, but hopefully Pokemon fans are smart next round and give most of this to Blue. I doubt it, but he'd be the most epic final 9er. I can dream..


If next round Blue>Pikachu,does the xstats show Fox>Crono?
Not sure how it works
#33 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/26/2013 9:50:43 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Also, uh-oh, Pikachu got cut.

Time to rally on reddit to save him!


Don't even joke about that.
#34 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/26/2013 9:50:55 AM | message detail
Damn, this would have been an awesome bracket buster if Magus wasn't there.

Damn you Magus, finding new ways to disappoint people
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#35 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:51:36 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Damn, this would have been an awesome bracket buster if Magus wasn't there.

Damn you Magus, finding new ways to disappoint people

Pretty sure this ends up with Crono looking good to win 1v1. I mean, it doesn't look like that now, but it should get better.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#36 | Achromatic | Posted 8/26/2013 9:52:10 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Well then. That came out of nowhere. More of those please. Lots more.

Let's not kid ourselves here! Pikachu is going to gain like 40 next update.

Crono has surprised me before, but getting himself out of this might top the list.

Or not. That Vincent match so great.



profit.
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!
#37 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/26/2013 9:52:22 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Well then. That came out of nowhere. More of those please. Lots more.

Let's not kid ourselves here! Pikachu is going to gain like 40 next update.


Someone's prescient.
#38 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:53:18 AM | message detail
What was the biggest comeback in this contest aside from Draven?
Because Pikachu lead is 400 now
#39 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/26/2013 9:53:24 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
WRT Fox getting most of his strength from Smash, which was brought up in the previous thread: That's probably true, else he wouldn't have gone MIA until 2007.


See, that's one of the advantages to having only been here since 2009--I can see the things that the old guard is too set in their ways to realize.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#40 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/26/2013 9:53:31 AM | message detail
Just wait til the kiddies come home from school today to vote for their boy Magus
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#41 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:53:40 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...

Let's not kid ourselves here! Pikachu is going to gain like 40 next update..

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POKEFEAR
#42 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:53:55 AM | message detail
hahaha
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#43 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 9:53:59 AM | message detail
Yeah, Crono looks good to win 1v1. By the end of the match, he'll probably be around 48% on Pikachu. Get rid of Magus and he probably jumps to like 53%. Make it 24 hours and he'll probably end up around 54%.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#44 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/26/2013 9:54:21 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
retty sure this ends up with Crono looking good to win 1v1.


I highly doubt that. I think the best he can do is take it to a point where it would like like it could go either way.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#45 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 9:55:19 AM | message detail
Pikachu is down to a 47-40 split in the US, and 44-41 in Canada. The map lags the poll, so it's probably even closer in North America by now.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#46 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/26/2013 9:55:34 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Yeah, Crono looks good to win 1v1. By the end of the match, he'll probably be around 48% on Pikachu. Get rid of Magus and he probably jumps to like 53%. Make it 24 hours and he'll probably end up around 54%.


Yeah right. Pikachu's just going to keep on gaining. Might not ever make it to 50%, but he'll keep pushing the lead.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#47 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:55:35 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
xp1337 posted...
retty sure this ends up with Crono looking good to win 1v1.


I highly doubt that. I think the best he can do is take it to a point where it would like like it could go either way.

I could see that, but for me that's Crono's worst-case. Possible though.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#48 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:57:03 AM | message detail
tennisboy213 posted...
xp1337 posted...

Let's not kid ourselves here! Pikachu is going to gain like 40 next update..


That was..nice coincidence
#49 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/26/2013 9:57:18 AM | message detail
Crono is no longer tripling Magus. AAAAAAAARGH. Why, Magus, why?
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#50 | Achromatic | Posted 8/26/2013 9:57:29 AM | message detail
Look at Magus gaining percentage on both what a beast.
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!