Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1130

#301 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/26/2013 8:53:45 AM | message detail
Pikachu won't have it easy at all with the board vote, because Crono also has a very strong board vote as well. In fact, it was the board vote that allowed Crono to hold a lead over Missingno at the start of the match before Crono lost the lead and never regained the lead again.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#302 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:53:47 AM | message detail
Before I go back to mindlessly hyping up and defending Crono, I've got to say I've been feeling increasingly bad about this match.

I was extremely confident in Crono all the way up until that damn Dante match. Don't think Crono is in any danger of blowing it that badly, but something like 43/40/17? Oh yeah, I can see it. And worse yet, it'll be something Crono has to climb to and it'll look worse for most of the match.

I'm sticking with Crono - probably in the 44/41/15 area, but I don't know if I realistically can see him blow this open the way I fear Pikachu can.

...Okay, that was too depressing. Back to the hype!
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#303 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/26/2013 8:53:50 AM | message detail
Let's go, Pikachu,
#304 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/26/2013 8:54:34 AM | message detail
Crono is almost certainly going to lose. I'm just going down with the ship.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#305 | Whupassman | Posted 8/26/2013 8:55:03 AM | message detail
Scyther's fine until he comes up against Fire. Then he's f***ed.
---
The Hardcore Kid
#306 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:55:06 AM | message detail
vcharon posted...
If your reasoning for voting for Pikachu is so that he can "beat Draven", yeah... no one's gonna beat Draven. Better that Crono lose to him than Pokemon in my book, since a loss here won't be because of a rally. It would just be a legitimate win.


Thats my reasoning for voting Mewtwo!
Even if he doesn't stand a chance,a stand the best chance currently!
Fight rally with rally!

5 minutes get ready
#307 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:55:18 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Crono is almost certainly going to lose. I'm just going down with the ship.

i just want to believe for these last 5 minutes

is that so wrong
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#308 | pjbasis | Posted 8/26/2013 8:55:19 AM | message detail
Come on Crono, cut down the opposition!
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#309 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:55:33 AM | message detail
Crono is #1 at making contests interesting. He's still got to give us Snake/Cloud/Crono, so he can't just lose yet!
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#310 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/26/2013 8:55:39 AM | message detail
vcharon posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
The bracket could be half made of Pokemon and I'm absolutely sure that

1. All of them would get bandwagoned for causing 'upsets', yes, even against each other
2. Everyone on Board 8 would still think that Pokemon in general is the plucky underdog


Sadly yeah.

People aren't ever going to view Pokemon as the top dog for some reason, even when all evidence points to it.


It depends. I don't think any number of 1st and 2nd round upsets will change that perception, but if they keep taking down beloved characters in important matches, they will eventually get the FFVII always wins treatment.

Give it time.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#311 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:55:50 AM | message detail
Go on, Pikachu, give 'em a shock.
---
We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#312 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/26/2013 8:56:18 AM | message detail
If Crono loses, red sox goes into hibernation for another year :(
---
Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (is also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
#313 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/26/2013 8:56:27 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Crono is #1 at making contests interesting. He's still got to give us Snake/Cloud/Crono, so he can't just lose yet!


Yeah, if nothing else Crono always makes for interesting matches.
---
http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg
#314 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/26/2013 8:56:44 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Give it time.


It took 10 years and Bacon holding a poll basically yelling at people "LINK ALWAYS WINS" for him to start getting anti-voted.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#315 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/26/2013 8:56:45 AM | message detail
I think Pikachu is going to win this fairly easily, but I can't imagine Crono finishing around 40%. If he does that, then it's reaching the point where Magus being there doesn't matter, because there's no way Magus is going to hold up well at all.
---
~War~
#316 | squexa | Posted 8/26/2013 8:56:58 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
Also, are you basing the Chrono Trigger/Chrono Cross ratio to OoT/MM thing on Majora's Mask/Chrono Cross? (I can't recall any other matches with Chrono Cross, though I might be forgetting)

I wouldn't take that at face value, because Majora's Mask was not only likely non-linear but boosted significantly through the rounds.

red sox 777 posted...
Also, I'd dispute that the difference between contests was all that big. Lots of SFF to throw around in both years when comparing MM and GSC.

I've done the analysis, it's pretty simple actually. There's really not much work to do. GSC and RBY showed 10 points of LFF when in the same match. Adjusting for that, in a 1v1 it should have lost to GSC 55-45. instead it won 55-45. That's a huge turnaround in the space of a year for no logical reason other than Zelda proxy boost.

red sox 777 posted...
It beat FFX by just over 200 votes. MM could have lost, and was very close to losing. You could even argue that it would have lost if not for some minor rallying on the afternoon of the match.

Final Fantasy outrallying Zelda? That's something I'd like to see!! The end of days would be nigh if that happened.

If SSBM had beaten SSBB, there's also a strong possibility MM would have lost to FFX (because MM was viewed as the best remaining shot to take out Brawl).

Now this point I do think might be valid.

I still don't think MM was going to lose to FFX regardless of what happened with Melee/Brawl though - Zelda is still tiered above everything else Nintendo, and yes I'd even include Melee in that group. I mean Meele did lose to Brawl (an anti-voted Brawl at that) - it wasn't some invincible force.

And considering how close MM and FFX were, I just find it hard to picture MM losing there. FFX would have to be a clear step above MM to win.

Which in a neutral "best game ever" setting FFX probably is a clear step above MM - again, drones. The previous year FFX would have handled MM with absolute *ease*. Because Ocarina was in that bracket and Zelda had no need to rally behind anything else. Instead FFX lost to MM, a game that - in a non-drone setting - it was much stronger than.

FFX was even stronger than GSC, and as I mentioned GSC would have handled MM no problem a year prior. There's simply no way to explain MM's boost in strength that makes any sense other than Zelda proxy. I mean it might not be a satisfying conclusion, but there is no other conclusion to be drawn. So we kind of have no choice but to go with the least-bad conclusion.


Lol, the MM/GSC match shows how unreliable 4ways are more than anything. Just look at Shadow of the Colossus. I don't exactly know how you got the GSC > MM with 55% with this much certainty, since they've only been in 1 match that took a combined total of 40.51% of the total votes, which is not even the majority of voters. Extrapolating the rest with any degree of accuracy requires making a lot of assumptions about MGS and RBY in the poll.

I think the main problem is that we're looking at it from a "Okay, Pokemon SFF vs Zelda" angle. MM, GSC, RBY could share more of a common fanbase than you might think since they are Nintendo games from the same time period. RBY could for example leech from MM almost as much as GSC.

I agree that in later matches especially MM/FFX, MM overperformed because of bandwagons/rallies, but I doubt people were treating MM as a "Zelda proxy" this early in the tournament with 2 other Zelda games still remaining.
#317 | pjbasis | Posted 8/26/2013 8:57:57 AM | message detail
Tidus was keeping it close with Missingno so I don't know if Missingo's board vote is all that great
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#318 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:58:28 AM | message detail
I really like my Crono>Pikachu>Magus pick
SCREW POINTS GO PIKACHU
win-win situation
#319 | vcharon | Posted 8/26/2013 8:58:34 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
vcharon posted...
If your reasoning for voting for Pikachu is so that he can "beat Draven", yeah... no one's gonna beat Draven. Better that Crono lose to him than Pokemon in my book, since a loss here won't be because of a rally. It would just be a legitimate win.


Thats my reasoning for voting Mewtwo!
Even if he doesn't stand a chance,a stand the best chance currently!
Fight rally with rally!

5 minutes get ready


Where did people see ANY sort of COMPARABLE rally for Mewtwo to go against Draven? Are we watching the same contest?
---
Still smilin'
:>
#320 | Gooper Blooper | Posted 8/26/2013 8:59:19 AM | message detail
I want to be the very best.
---
And then the car wash cost five dollars.
#321 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:59:35 AM | message detail
vcharon posted...
Nanis23 posted...
vcharon posted...
If your reasoning for voting for Pikachu is so that he can "beat Draven", yeah... no one's gonna beat Draven. Better that Crono lose to him than Pokemon in my book, since a loss here won't be because of a rally. It would just be a legitimate win.


Thats my reasoning for voting Mewtwo!
Even if he doesn't stand a chance,a stand the best chance currently!
Fight rally with rally!

5 minutes get ready


Where did people see ANY sort of COMPARABLE rally for Mewtwo to go against Draven? Are we watching the same contest?


There wasn't
There will be
#322 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:01 AM | message detail
It begins.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#323 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:12 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted
Crono
37.5%
3 Votes
Pikachu
62.5%
5 Votes
Your Pick
Magus
0%
0 Votes
#324 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:14 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Crono
33.33%
3 Votes

Pikachu
66.67%
6 Votes
Your Pick

Magus
0%
0 Votes
Total Votes: 9
---
POKEFEAR
#325 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:19 AM | message detail
oh my god magus
---
~War~
#326 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:31 AM | message detail
Crono
39.58%
19 Votes
Your Pick
Pikachu
56.25%
27 Votes
Magus
4.17%
2 Votes
Total Votes: 48

Darn you board vote.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#327 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:34 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Crono
40%
10 Votes
Your Pick

Pikachu
60%
15 Votes

Magus
0%
0 Votes

Total Votes: 25

good work magus. keep it up.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#328 | pjbasis | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:34 AM | message detail
#329 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:34 AM | message detail
Crono
33%
33 Votes

Pikachu
62%
62 Votes
Your Pick

Magus
5%
5 Votes
#330 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:38 AM | message detail
Ridiculous Pokemon board vote.
#331 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:38 AM | message detail
the wind is howling

with laughter
---
Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (is also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
#332 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:42 AM | message detail
That board vote, I swear.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#333 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:44 AM | message detail
XFD MAGUS
---
XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#334 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:51 AM | message detail
Magus is dying lol
#335 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/26/2013 9:00:51 AM | message detail
Crono
35.71%
20 Votes
Vote Crono!


Pikachu
60.71%
34 Votes
Vote Pikachu!


Magus
3.57%
2 Votes
Vote Magus!


ahahahaha Magus
---
"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#336 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:01:12 AM | message detail
Crono
0.00%
0 Votes

Pikachu
100.00%
2 Votes
Your Pick

Magus
0%
0 Votes

Total Votes: 2
---
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baUY9LFlYh0 - KokorokokoroKOKOROkokoROKokoro-chan iu na
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/raytan7585
#337 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/26/2013 9:01:18 AM | message detail
Hmm
---
Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#338 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:01:18 AM | message detail
Magus is a goddamn hero if he can keep this up.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#339 | YoboD | Posted 8/26/2013 9:01:25 AM | message detail
Classic Magus
---
Not today
#340 | vcharon | Posted 8/26/2013 9:01:29 AM | message detail
Magus gonna look so bad and Crono's still going to lose.
---
Still smilin'
:>
#341 | pjbasis | Posted 8/26/2013 9:01:36 AM | message detail
#342 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/26/2013 9:01:36 AM | message detail
Wow, date Poke vote.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#343 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/26/2013 9:01:47 AM | message detail
A one-minute freeze.

We shall see.

(lmao Magus again)
---
XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#344 | Qwaar | Posted 8/26/2013 9:01:51 AM | message detail
Please tell me this is just the crazy board vote, or else Crono is finished.
---
XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#345 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:01:52 AM | message detail
Why early freeze why
#346 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:02:04 AM | message detail
Uh, I don't like these percentages. On the other hand, the votals are still really low.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#347 | tgs2 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:02:05 AM | message detail
Oh good. an early freeze when it's needed.
#348 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:02:16 AM | message detail
Of all the matches to have a dumb freeze. :(
---
We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#349 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/26/2013 9:02:17 AM | message detail
Of all the times for an early freeze...
#350 | LaqOfInterest | Posted 8/26/2013 9:02:21 AM | message detail
Holy geexz it's been two minutes

Give the man a chance
---
R.I.P. Obstaculos 2/20/2013
http://i.imgur.com/tHw2GvF.png