Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1130

#251 | FFDragon | Posted 8/26/2013 5:47:48 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
It won because it got more votes, FFD. We know that!


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#252 | -Zelmor- | Posted 8/26/2013 5:47:52 AM | message detail
Majora Mask is alright, not as good as MGS3 or FFX though, end of story.
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#253 | FFDragon | Posted 8/26/2013 5:48:32 AM | message detail | (edited)
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
It beat MGS3 though


The worst MGS game, yes.

(2 > 1 > 4 > 3)
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#254 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/26/2013 5:49:52 AM | message detail
but 3 is the best in the series

3 > 1 > who cares
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#255 | redrocket | Posted 8/26/2013 5:51:08 AM | message detail
However you rank them, the worst mainline MGS game is better than the best Zelda game.
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#256 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/26/2013 6:03:55 AM | message detail
redrocket posted...
However you rank them, the worst mainline MGS game is better than the best Zelda game.


Naw, Link's Awakening is better than MGS4.
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#257 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/26/2013 6:07:01 AM | message detail
Link's Awakening is better than the "who cares" games section
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#258 | -Zelmor- | Posted 8/26/2013 6:16:50 AM | message detail
Leon looks pretty decent here, while I'm not that impressed by Squirtle's performance relative to Zidane, i think he should get second in the next round, potentially breaking 45% on a weaker Clown Strife.
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#259 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/26/2013 6:19:18 AM | message detail
I've lost most hope for Crono. If he goes down here, my bracket's toast.
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#260 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/26/2013 6:21:58 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
I've lost most hope for Crono. If he goes down here, my bracket's toast.


I can see why - day match plus dealing with SFF.
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#261 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/26/2013 6:22:32 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
ExThaNemesis posted...
I've lost most hope for Crono. If he goes down here, my bracket's toast.


I can see why - day match plus dealing with SFF.


It's mostly just PokeFEAR at this point. Squirtle and Mewtwo have thrown down the gauntlet.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#262 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 8/26/2013 6:23:53 AM | message detail
Pikachu isn't Squirtle or Mewtwo, though. >_>
#263 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/26/2013 6:31:41 AM | message detail
DSRKVRTheDealer posted...
Pikachu isn't Squirtle or Mewtwo, though. >_>


I would prefer to look at it as, "Crono isn't Dante or Suit Vincent." But I might still be blinded by how beneficial it would be to my bracket and Expert if it were to happen.
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#264 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 6:31:50 AM | message detail
You know what would make absolutely no sense?
Pikachu beating Crono harder than Blue beat Fox
Then in the next round Blue get more % than Pikachu
Go do x-stats with that
#265 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/26/2013 6:49:31 AM | message detail | (edited)
Match XCVII: (1) Crono vs. (6) Pikachu vs. (9) Magus

Previous Round

Crono – 63.00%
Missile – 19.26%
Sarah Kerrigan – 17.74%

Pikachu – 52.93%
Lloyd Irving – 23.62%
Big Daddy – 23.45%

Magus – 47.83%
Hal “Otacon” Emmerich – 33.90%
Jade Curtiss – 18.27%

Analysis

This match is one of the most hyped matches of the contest and it is all because of Magus. It is expected that Magus will LFF Crono, the question is will it be enough for Pikachu to win. Unlike with the usual Nintendo matches Magus may be able to resist SFF from Crono. Looking at their match back in 2004 and adjusting Magus to his 2005 strength as oppose to 2003 he was able to resist SFF a lot better. It makes sense considering he is such a huge fan favourite in Chrono Trigger. However, that was a 1v1 match where Crono’s performance did not matter; with the match on the line fans could be smart enough to back Crono in order to give him the best chance at winning.

Another thing to look at is their current strength. It is difficult to peg Crono’s strength due to Missingno. Against Kerrigan he did a few points worse than what Vincent did and Kerrigan has received Starcraft II since then. Like with the other Old Square characters Chrono Trigger characters have been performing well in this contest which is good news for Crono.

As well as Chrono Trigger looked this contest Pokemon, especially in the second round has looked great. Mewtwo easily won against a likely boosted Phoenix, Squirtle had no issue against Dante and Zidane and Lugia broke 45% on Frog. Pikachu’s first round performance looked to be normal, adjusting him to about 35% against Solid Snake, if he is stronger than what that mark indicates he may not need as much LFF to win.

I currently compare Crono with Squall and that is with the assumption that Crono has remained constant since 2008. With that in mind Crono (or Squall) is expected to get 57.15% against Pikachu. Even if Magus holds up that could be enough to avoid losing based on previous LFF matches. However, I feel Crono is likely weaker than Squall and with the way Pokemon has looked Pikachu is probably stronger. Pokemon getting a bit anti-voted may be a concern given that they seem to be doing well in every other match, but I am going to back Pikachu with the upset.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Pikachu > Crono and Magus

charmander6000’s Prediction: Pikachu – 41.57%, Crono – 40.43%, Magus – 18.00%
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#266 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/26/2013 6:48:55 AM | message detail
^Crono wins
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#267 | vcharon | Posted 8/26/2013 6:50:34 AM | message detail
Crono's gonna lose, I just hope he doesn't embarrass himself too badly.
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#268 | tgs2 | Posted 8/26/2013 6:59:28 AM | message detail
If Crono somehow wins, CT automatically gets star of the contest to me regardless of what Squirtle and Mewtwo do.
#269 | pjbasis | Posted 8/26/2013 7:06:54 AM | message detail
Chrono Cross is the best game in that (and any) contest though!
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#270 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 7:27:40 AM | message detail
Magus with 18% would make Crono % a lot less really
We are looking for 45-45-10
#271 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/26/2013 7:32:45 AM | message detail
I'm totally torn on this match. Pikachu is my obvious pick as a favorite, and an upset for him would be quite amazing.

On the other hand, a Pikachu win assures Sora a victory next round, which is probably worse than Pikachu losing here. Crono is pretty cool, after all, and at least Blue would still be there next round. It might therefore be better if Crono wins.
#272 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/26/2013 7:34:54 AM | message detail
I like Pikachu and Crono so either winning is pretty cool here.

Leaning Crono because Crono winning leaves potential for SMELL YOU LATER.
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#273 | SliceSabre | Posted 8/26/2013 7:38:38 AM | message detail
I want Pikachu to take this so that he may defeated Draven, I have no hope in the world of Man to propel Corno to victory.
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#274 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 7:41:59 AM | message detail
Of all remaining Pokemon,Pikachu is the less likely to take out Draven...
He will get more anti-votes from a rally than any other Pokemon
#275 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/26/2013 7:42:18 AM | message detail
But there's no way Pikachu wins next round with Blue there, and Sora will be probably the weakest division winner as a result. Blue might be the better upset, and he's just as good if not better than Pikachu.
#276 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:10:30 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Of all remaining Pokemon,Pikachu is the less likely to take out Draven...
He will get more anti-votes from a rally than any other Pokemon


you gotta BELIEVE man
#277 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:12:53 AM | message detail
At this rate we may have too many Pokemon which could lead to anti-votes or LFF when they start meeting each other.
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#278 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:18:30 AM | message detail
I'm starting to be afraid of anti votes,too
After what happened during Squirtle match,it looks like Pokemon has become the enemy of everyone
I don't really care that 10 people in the stats discussion topic decided to hate Pokemon,but maybe some of the voters that don't post here feel like that as well

Too many Pokemon is going to be Pokemon downfall and I hate it
WHO NOMINATED JIGGLYPUFF AND LUGIA
#279 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/26/2013 8:26:29 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
But the whole point of drones is that they are voting for characters they don't really like, just because the character is from the series. But that's not the case. They're ONLY voting for Link.


I thought about this earlier today, and I thought that there are really only two ways I can see Link's appeal coming from:

-Him being one of the most iconic video game characters.
-Him being "the personification of a hero".

But I feel precisely the same way about Mario. People vote for them because they have attachment to those characters due to them and their franchises being huge parts of their childhoods or similar things. This is also precisely why other characters from those franchises like Luigi/Bowser/Yoshi/Ganondorf/Zelda are all a good deal weaker: the Mario/Link fans don't have as much attachment to them.

On that token however, it makes a lot more sense for various Pokemon to all have the same strength, although I personally think that it's just Squirtle/Charizard/Pikachu all being at one level and most other Pokemon all being considerably weaker. Same idea with Smash Bros.-reliant characters, though then again Fox, Captain Falcon, Marth, Ike, and Mr. Game & Watch aren't all that likely to be all on the same level I guess. Well:

-Fox is the only one of those characters who has a game of his own that this site gives a darn about.
-Captain Falcon is a clear step above Marth and Ike due to being in all three SSBs.
-I got nothin', I still feel like I'd take Ike > Marth. But I do think that Mr. Game & Watch could be right on their level.
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#280 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/26/2013 8:29:07 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
red sox 777 posted...
But the whole point of drones is that they are voting for characters they don't really like, just because the character is from the series. But that's not the case. They're ONLY voting for Link.

Majora's Mask winning GOTD is pretty much indefensible though.

Majora's Mask - Game of the Decade?! I mean seriously now.

If it had at least shown strength in the previous year, that would be something. It would show MM had real strength, all on it's own, and it's win was legit and earned. Instead it was not strong at all and would have gotten handled easily by GSC in a 1v1 that year. Then a year later it boosts massively, for no explainable reason other than Zelda proxy.

That's probably the most dronish behavior we've ever seen. Even worse than Pokemon.


To be fair, Majora's Mask got a Virtual Console release in between contests! But I do honestly feel as if even otherwise Majora's Mask was talked about a lot more in 2010 and onwards than it was before. Same with Shadow of the Colossus. The same thing is happening to Wind Waker as well.
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#281 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/26/2013 8:35:13 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
red sox 777 posted...
Unlike the FFVII fanbase which has completed failed in this respect.

Yes that's the strange thing, it would seem all FF7 fans are "casual" types who don't care enough about their characters winning to actually do something about it. The notion of a FF7 rally of any significance is almost comical. (and any FF7 rallies that may occur are probably more due to brackets than fandom)

Which makes it even more impressive - FF7 fans don't give much of a crap whether they actually win or not, yet they still "always win"!

I mean even Link gets some strength from rallying...FF7 relies on pure brute force alone.


Here's another theory I've always had: FF7 was a bigger game in its own day that OOT was (yes I know OOT was big too), so FF7 fans are happy enough with their game's initial success. Don't forget that FF7 was a system seller while OOT wasn't, at least not to the same extent. Furthermore, Zelda has never been the most mainstream series in gaming - it was overshadowed by Mario in the NES/SNES eras, and then all of Nintendo was overshadowed by the PlayStation and Xbox brands after that (until the Wii perhaps, and that wasn't because of Zelda or even Mario). So Zelda fans want their success in Internet contests more than FF7 fans do.

Also Zelda has way more appeal to the average modern gamer than Final Fantasy does.
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#282 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:36:18 AM | message detail
This board vote. I've been bracing for it for some time. It's going to be terrible.

Pokemon + Brackets.

But Crono will endure.

He must.
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#283 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/26/2013 8:38:06 AM | message detail | (edited)
But the whole point of drones is that they are voting for characters they don't really like, just because the character is from the series. But that's not the case. They're ONLY voting for Link.

I would never vote for Lumineon, though. I generally vote for Pokemon in the matches they are in because on the whole, the Pokemon that get into this contest are pretty great. I'll be voting Pikachu in 22 minutes because while I dislike Ash, but his Pikachu is OK and kind of cute. The species on the whole is cool. Heck, my least favourite in the contest this year is probably Jiggles and I still love anime Jigglypuff and using her in Melee.

On this subject, the anti-Squirtle rage yesterday was just baffling. People were saying "there are other games, Pokemon fans". And yes, there are, but it's Squirtle. This isn't Dodrio winning just because it's a Pokemon. It's Squirtle, a loved Pokemon. A starter. Also in Brawl.

People talk about Pokemon drones, but in the end the options presented in contests are pretty great. No wonder they get more votes.
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#284 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/26/2013 8:38:29 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I'm starting to be afraid of anti votes,too
After what happened during Squirtle match,it looks like Pokemon has become the enemy of everyone
I don't really care that 10 people in the stats discussion topic decided to hate Pokemon,but maybe some of the voters that don't post here feel like that as well

Too many Pokemon is going to be Pokemon downfall and I hate it
WHO NOMINATED JIGGLYPUFF AND LUGIA


lol gen1 pokemon is never going to get anti-voted. Don't let a handful of whiners on board 8 convince you otherwise.
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#285 | Sorozone | Posted 8/26/2013 8:42:09 AM | message detail
Watch Crono stomp.
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#286 | pjbasis | Posted 8/26/2013 8:43:24 AM | message detail
I would vote Dodrio over Squirtle
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#287 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:44:16 AM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
Watch Crono stomp.

I'm really scared here!

There's a non-trivial chance that Pikachu just crushes the board vote and never looks back! I'm not sure what I'd do then!

As much as I'd love to see Crono do that, I kind of feel like that's the least likely outcome. Depending on your definition of "stomp" at least,
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#288 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/26/2013 8:45:16 AM | message detail
Watch Magus cut into Pikachu's lead at the ten minute freeze update
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#289 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/26/2013 8:45:40 AM | message detail
Ok how about we just get Scyther into the next contest.

We can all agree Scyther owns, right?

Metal Gear fans can get uh...Psycho Mantis in as a trade-off.
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#290 | xp1337 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:45:45 AM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
Watch Magus cut into Pikachu's lead at the ten minute freeze update

the dream will never die
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#291 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/26/2013 8:46:18 AM | message detail
Lets go Crono!!! Save us from the Pokemon plague.
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#292 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/26/2013 8:47:10 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Ok how about we just get Scyther into the next contest.

We can all agree Scyther owns, right?

Metal Gear fans can get uh...Psycho Mantis in as a trade-off.


I want Metapod. I want to see if Harden can win a match.
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#293 | vcharon | Posted 8/26/2013 8:47:10 AM | message detail
If your reasoning for voting for Pikachu is so that he can "beat Draven", yeah... no one's gonna beat Draven. Better that Crono lose to him than Pokemon in my book, since a loss here won't be because of a rally. It would just be a legitimate win.
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#294 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/26/2013 8:47:25 AM | message detail
The bracket could be half made of Pokemon and I'm absolutely sure that

1. All of them would get bandwagoned for causing 'upsets', yes, even against each other
2. Everyone on Board 8 would still think that Pokemon in general is the plucky underdog
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#295 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:48:43 AM | message detail
I've done the analysis, it's pretty simple actually. There's really not much work to do. GSC and RBY showed 10 points of LFF when in the same match. Adjusting for that, in a 1v1 it should have lost to GSC 55-45. instead it won 55-45. That's a huge turnaround in the space of a year for no logical reason other than Zelda proxy boost.

It was around 10 points of LFF with triple LFF from RBY, GSC, and MM. Without MM it's probably a fair amount less. Granted, it is still a pretty big amount and that result is pretty mystifying, agreed.

Majora's Mask put up 67% on Chrono Cross. CC also put up 16% on OOT in a 4-way, but it was pretty clearly being SFF'd by FFIX so I won't use that match. If you believe Chrono Trigger >= FFX, and late round MM >= early round MM, that sets Chrono Trigger's minimum indirect percentage on Chrono Cross at 67%.

Well, if CT's actual strength on CC is a little higher than that, then I guess the CT/CC ratio is a little bigger than the OOT/FFX (and thus MM) ratio. But not by that much, and this is supposed to be a case where the fanbase loves one game and hates the other.
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#296 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:49:40 AM | message detail
Butterfree, Scyther, Charmander, Bulbasaur, Meowth, Dragonite, all shaping up to make their debuts!
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#297 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/26/2013 8:50:03 AM | message detail
Very nervous about this. I think I'd like to see Crono stomp Pikachu 60-40. It's possible, but not likely.
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#298 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/26/2013 8:50:37 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
The bracket could be half made of Pokemon and I'm absolutely sure that

1. All of them would get bandwagoned for causing 'upsets', yes, even against each other
2. Everyone on Board 8 would still think that Pokemon in general is the plucky underdog


So long as there's a vocal group going on about how [X] well-liked Pokemon will be fodder, Pokemon will be treated as an underdog!

I bet there are people in this topic who would use Majora's Mask/GSC as proof for RBY being weak instead of going 'oh my god a Pokemon generation nobody cares about is as strong as any post-MGS1 Metal Gear game'.
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#299 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/26/2013 8:50:43 AM | message detail
vcharon posted...
If your reasoning for voting for Pikachu is so that he can "beat Draven", yeah... no one's gonna beat Draven. Better that Crono lose to him than Pokemon in my book, since a loss here won't be because of a rally. It would just be a legitimate win.


Pikachu can't beat Draven because he's on the wrong side of the bracket.
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#300 | vcharon | Posted 8/26/2013 8:51:06 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
The bracket could be half made of Pokemon and I'm absolutely sure that

1. All of them would get bandwagoned for causing 'upsets', yes, even against each other
2. Everyone on Board 8 would still think that Pokemon in general is the plucky underdog


Sadly yeah.

People aren't ever going to view Pokemon as the top dog for some reason, even when all evidence points to it.
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