Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1130

#101 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:25:25 PM | message detail
#102 | creativename | Posted 8/25/2013 9:25:38 PM | message detail
So this match looks like the calm before the storm. T-minus 11 hours, 35 minutes until Armageddon.

I'm seeing a lot of 15%ish predictions for Magus here...isn't that kinda high? I expect Crono to put at least 80% on him. Magus should be even more LOL-worthy than normal here.

He's going to get turbofodderized.
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#103 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/25/2013 9:26:04 PM | message detail
Glad I switched to Gordon for second. I was afraid we'd have some SFF going on that would let Shadow slip into second. But them I remembered that Shadow barely went 60-40 on Yu Narukami.
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#104 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/25/2013 9:26:17 PM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
LOLContests posted...
Go go Shadow.

This year really is Redemption of the Chokers isn't it?

Dante JUST got blown up by Squirttle


Since when has Dante been a "choker"? Dude made a contest semifinal once; he's never lost in the first round and he's never lost to anything less than a mid-level midcarder. I mean, here's the list of Dante's losses.

2002: Narrowly avoided a doubling against Crono, back when Crono was still awesome.
2003: 54-46 loss against Ryu, one of the top midcarders.
2004: 62-38 loss against Sonic, a member of the Noble Nine.
2005: 54-46 loss against Vincent Valentine, another top midcarder, possibly the top midcarder at the time.
2006: Got 49.45% in a loss to Yoshi. Less elite than the other characters that he's lost to, but still a medium-high midcarder, and in a damn close match.
2007: Advanced in second place twice, once in a match where he had two other Capcom characters in Leon Kennedy and Amaterasu holding him back against Pikachu and the other behind Game Fuel Chief (with Pikachu nullified by Luigi) before finally exiting in fourth place to L-Block, Snake, and Game Fuel Chief.
2008: Finished second in another "three mature characters vs. cutesy Nintendo" battle, getting revenge against Chief while again being held back by Leon Kennedy as Kirby took first place, then exited in fourth place behind Snake, Kirby, and Sonic. (By the way, has anyone ever come up with any theories as to why Kirby shot through the roof in 2008? Because even though some of his performances can be explained away by fortuitous LFF scenarios, 2008 Kirby still beats the crap out of any other year's Kirby.)
2010: Lost to Ryu again, this time with 49.65% of the vote.

About the only time he lost to someone who isn't considered at least a medium-high midcarder is 2007, and both of those characters were far stronger in 2007 than they had been in any other year. (Yes, L-Block is at best a medium-low midcarder now.) And his percentages in his losses suggest that he's pretty strong. I mean, I guess you could slap a "choker" label on him because of all of the close losses with no close wins (not that it matters, but he broke 49% in his loss in Rivalry Rumble, too), but others with the "choker" label lose to people they have no business losing to. Dante's a high midcarder who just never quite manages to get that signature win.
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#105 | Xuxon | Posted 8/25/2013 9:27:05 PM | message detail
and this looks over now. i still had some doubt about Leon after the third update but yeah.
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#106 | paulg235 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:27:37 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
I'm seeing a lot of 15%ish predictions for Magus here...isn't that kinda high? I expect Crono to put at least 80% on him. Magus should be even more LOL-worthy than normal here.

He's going to get turbofodderized.

Magus is going to get SFF'ed so hard that the xstats have Otacon losing to Chester, believe.
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#107 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:27:41 PM | message detail
I'm seeing a lot of 15%ish predictions for Magus here...isn't that kinda high? I expect Crono to put at least 80% on him. Magus should be even more LOL-worthy than normal here.


I still think Magus holds up relatively well, he is a fan favourite
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#108 | Qwaar | Posted 8/25/2013 9:28:40 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
So this match looks like the calm before the storm. T-minus 11 hours, 35 minutes until Armageddon.

I'm seeing a lot of 15%ish predictions for Magus here...isn't that kinda high? I expect Crono to put at least 80% on him. Magus should be even more LOL-worthy than normal here.

He's going to get turbofodderized.


I'm totally confident of Crono winning the match. I don't why, but I've always felt secure about this pick.
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#109 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:28:42 PM | message detail
Yeah, I've got Magus at around 14-15%. If Crono ends up around 46%, that's still above a tripling. I dunno if I'd be confident calling for a quadrupling from him.
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#110 | creativename | Posted 8/25/2013 9:29:15 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
I'm seeing a lot of 15%ish predictions for Magus here...isn't that kinda high? I expect Crono to put at least 80% on him. Magus should be even more LOL-worthy than normal here.


I still think Magus holds up relatively well, he is a fan favourite

I recall this logic being used 10 years ago...
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#111 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/25/2013 9:29:49 PM | message detail
that means you're really damn old
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#112 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:30:16 PM | message detail
Well, you're asking for a big jump for Crono to go from 70/30ing him to 80/20ing him. Magus is a joke now, sure, but it's still quite a leap.
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#113 | Qwaar | Posted 8/25/2013 9:30:24 PM | message detail
Only 8 vote gain for Leon over Gordon...
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#114 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:30:42 PM | message detail
I recall this logic being used 10 years ago...

Considering where he was actually ranked he did better than the average Nintendo character.
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#115 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/25/2013 9:31:49 PM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
creativename posted...
I'm seeing a lot of 15%ish predictions for Magus here...isn't that kinda high? I expect Crono to put at least 80% on him. Magus should be even more LOL-worthy than normal here.

He's going to get turbofodderized.

Magus is going to get SFF'ed so hard that the xstats have Otacon losing to Chester, believe.


When Mewtwo upsets Sonic, Magus is going to get SFF'ed so hard that the Xstats would have Magus losing to Chester! (Although if Operation Pokιmon actually works, the X-stats will be worthless because Rally!Draven smashes Link so badly that Chester comes out looking like he could break 30% on Link, or something stupid like that.)
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#116 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/25/2013 9:31:53 PM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
creativename posted...
So this match looks like the calm before the storm. T-minus 11 hours, 35 minutes until Armageddon.

I'm seeing a lot of 15%ish predictions for Magus here...isn't that kinda high? I expect Crono to put at least 80% on him. Magus should be even more LOL-worthy than normal here.

He's going to get turbofodderized.


I'm totally confident of Crono winning the match. I don't why, but I've always felt secure about this pick.


I was going to comment about the 2010 xstats that show Chrono v Pikachu at 55-45, but then I remembered Missingno happened. So I'm not really sure how accurate that reading is.
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#117 | Xuxon | Posted 8/25/2013 9:34:47 PM | message detail
From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 8/26/2013 12:30:16 AM | #112
Well, you're asking for a big jump for Crono to go from 70/30ing him to 80/20ing him. Magus is a joke now, sure, but it's still quite a leap.

Magus's non-SFFed strength is probably around 30% on him now, though. it's not a jump so much as a drop.
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#118 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:35:59 PM | message detail | (edited)
Trend chart:

Time | Dante | Squirtle | Zidane | Votes
0:05 | 27.04% | 48.70% | 24.26% | 540
1:00 | 30.60% | 44.63% | 24.77% | 5023
2:00 | 30.20% | 45.34% | 24.46% | 4129
3:00 | 32.44% | 42.18% | 25.38% | 3570
4:00 | 30.75% | 44.85% | 24.39% | 3128
5:00 | 32.78% | 44.20% | 23.02% | 2837
6:00 | 31.12% | 43.84% | 25.05% | 2571
7:00 | 31.81% | 44.65% | 23.54% | 2383
8:00 | 31.59% | 43.77% | 24.65% | 2118
9:00 | 32.03% | 44.03% | 23.94% | 2051
10:00 | 32.08% | 42.96% | 24.96% | 1911
11:00 | 32.93% | 42.61% | 24.45% | 1828
12:00 | 32.73% | 44.65% | 22.62% | 1711

Dante struggles early but improves as the match goes along. Squirtle and Zidane don't budge a whole lot.

X-Stats:

Squirtle – 50.00%
Dante – 41.69%
Zidane Tribal – 35.62%
Ridley – 32.51%
Ramza Beoulve – 32.07%
Laharl – 24.96%
JC Denton – 17.30%
Raz – 16.03%
Spring Breeze Dancin’ – 6.60%

Squirtle's prediction percentage was 22.27%
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#119 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:36:33 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
Magus's non-SFFed strength is probably around 30% on him now, though. it's not a jump so much as a drop.


He honestly probably didn't SFF Magus a whole lot even back in 2004. It just seemed like a ton because of where we THOUGHT Magus was at the time.
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#120 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:38:54 PM | message detail
Current X-Stats:

Leon Kennedy – 50.00%
Gordon Freeman – 45.56%
Shadow the Hedgehog – 42.10%
Albert Wesker – 35.40%
Yu Narukami – 33.33%
Simon Belmont – 32.69%
Oliver – 28.82%
Kat – 22.04%
Hades – 19.46%
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#121 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:41:10 PM | message detail
Also Frog vs. Zidane: Who ya got?

Cloud got about as much on Frog as Squirtle got on Zidane, so I'm just sayin'!
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#122 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:41:10 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
So this match looks like the calm before the storm. T-minus 11 hours, 35 minutes until Armageddon.

I'm seeing a lot of 15%ish predictions for Magus here...isn't that kinda high? I expect Crono to put at least 80% on him. Magus should be even more LOL-worthy than normal here.

He's going to get turbofodderized.


Crono/Pikachu/Magus has been the most hyped match from the start, right? I was expecting more GET HYPE like this post when I walked in here. Though I guess this current match is still close enough to be worth talking about.
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#123 | paulg235 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:42:03 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Squirtle – 50.00%
Ridley – 32.51%

Suddenly looking very foward to Cloud/Squirtle1
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#124 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:42:35 PM | message detail
Also yeah direct Ridley comparisons
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#125 | yoyoyoyrlozer | Posted 8/25/2013 9:45:32 PM | message detail
How is Freeman winning over Shadow with that awful quote?
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#126 | Sorozone | Posted 8/25/2013 9:46:10 PM | message detail
Gordon making his move!
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#127 | Achromatic | Posted 8/25/2013 9:46:44 PM | message detail
It depends on how badly CT fans abandon Magus.

Nintendo fans know how to do it <_<.
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#128 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:47:12 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
It depends on how badly CT fans abandon Magus.

Nintendo fans know how to do it <_<.


*cough* Earthbound fans *cough*
#129 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:49:07 PM | message detail
Nintendo fans abandoned Ness hard. Big Boss's natural strength was just too high.
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#130 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2013 9:51:56 PM | message detail
I'm not sure how Gordon's trends are supposed to go vis-a-vis Leon, but post-Power Hour is when we're going to start seeing the pic disadvantage have a more pronounced effect, assuming that it's having one. That could be interesting, because Gordon's stalling him out a bit right now.
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#131 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/25/2013 9:52:02 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Nintendo fans abandoned Ness hard. Big Boss's natural strength was just too high.


It should be noted that most of Ness's strength comes from SSB. Since he's lower on the heirarchy, any higher tier SSB character is just going to sap the hell out of his strength.
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#132 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:55:09 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
It should be noted that most of Ness's strength comes from SSB. Since he's lower on the heirarchy, any higher tier SSB character is just going to sap the hell out of his strength.


Meta Knight>Link confirmed :P
#133 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/25/2013 10:01:23 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Greyfeld posted...
It should be noted that most of Ness's strength comes from SSB. Since he's lower on the heirarchy, any higher tier SSB character is just going to sap the hell out of his strength.


Meta Knight>Link confirmed :P


Too bad most of Link's strength comes from his Zelda games ;)
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#134 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 10:06:20 PM | message detail
#135 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2013 10:07:32 PM | message detail
If Leon has the trend advantage then he should be safe - Gordon looks set to make him look bad, but it's not exactly like it'll matter either way.
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#136 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 10:08:15 PM | message detail
Nah, Leon's gonna end up looking bad next round regardless of what happens.
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#137 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2013 10:09:03 PM | message detail
Well yeah, that's what I meant. <_< I'd interested in seeing if he could score more than Dante did on Squirtle in a neutral setting but he's gonna get LPFed to death.
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#138 | UItimaterializer | Posted 8/25/2013 10:13:37 PM | message detail
I don't agree with Leon's picture being bad, and it's not personal bias. I think his RE6 design is pretty cool looking.

It at least looks like Leon Kennedy. Were Dante to get his most recent design, you can cry foul. But I can at least tell who that character is.
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#139 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/25/2013 10:16:35 PM | message detail
I like Leon's pic. I know RE6 wasn't too well received, but I think he still looks cool in it.
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#140 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 10:17:53 PM | message detail
And now Shadow makes a big cut.
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#141 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2013 10:27:47 PM | message detail
And now Gordon does the same!

Call me irrationally paranoid but I'm gonna wait one more half hour before personally calling it. <_<
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#142 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 10:28:26 PM | message detail
These guys can't decide what they want to do.
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#143 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 10:31:32 PM | message detail
Gordon goes from a big cut on Leon to almost losing an update to Shadow.
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#144 | LOLContests | Posted 8/25/2013 10:33:21 PM | message detail
"Oh dear me. Sorry, Mr. The Hedgehog, I appeared to have dropped my shotgun and it went off on your foot."
"Oh let me clean that up."
"Oh no, that's fine you have a match to win."
"Why you are as nice as Mr. Scorpion five years ago"
"Cheery good mate that one."
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#145 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/25/2013 10:37:17 PM | message detail
Leon looked fine in RE6. His campaign wasn't so bad. The cathedral and catacombs were pretty cool.
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#146 | creativename | Posted 8/25/2013 10:39:03 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Well, you're asking for a big jump for Crono to go from 70/30ing him to 80/20ing him. Magus is a joke now, sure, but it's still quite a leap.

As Xuxon mentioned, Magus is straight weaker now. What Crono did with SFF back then he'd probably due with raw strength now.

Plus we know that in multi-ways, the weaker party in an SFF relationship gets destroyed even worse than normal. Crono is going to leech Magus within an inch of his life, and then he's gonna leech him some more.

Magu won't end up like Wolf...but it's going to be bad. Real bad.

LeonhartFour posted...
Xuxon posted...
Magus's non-SFFed strength is probably around 30% on him now, though. it's not a jump so much as a drop.


He honestly probably didn't SFF Magus a whole lot even back in 2004. It just seemed like a ton because of where we THOUGHT Magus was at the time.

It's unclear where Magus was. I doubt he'd dropped off a cliff in 2K4 though. I mean even when he bombed by losing to Knuckles in 2K5, Knuckles had pretty decent strength and Magus went almost even with him. Magus flopped compared to expectations but by no means was he weak - he was a very solid midcarder or even high midcarder in 2K5.

And now, he's pretty much fodder.

Magus dropped year by year, in the Crono 2K4 match Magus was midcarder at worst. Now that he's a joke it's going to get ugly for him.
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#147 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/25/2013 10:40:07 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Greyfeld posted...
It should be noted that most of Ness's strength comes from SSB. Since he's lower on the heirarchy, any higher tier SSB character is just going to sap the hell out of his strength.


Meta Knight>Link confirmed :P


I'm not really a competitive player so I don't know the tier lists. Where does DK sit on the tier list relative to Falco?
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#148 | xp1337 | Posted 8/25/2013 10:40:43 PM | message detail
Magus is going to fold hard because Crono needs him to!

at least he better
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#149 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 10:41:46 PM | message detail
We'll be hearing a lot of laughter from Magus tomorrow, I imagine.
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#150 | creativename | Posted 8/25/2013 10:43:28 PM | message detail
The Owner of FF9 posted...
Crono/Pikachu/Magus has been the most hyped match from the start, right? I was expecting more GET HYPE like this post when I walked in here. Though I guess this current match is still close enough to be worth talking about.

The whole Draven thing has quelled the large majority of enthusiasm for this contest.

I mean just look at how we're pretty much getting NO Snake posts. Snake is beasting everything in site, MGS looks amazing, and Snake appears to have made the leap to being our clear #2 - and could probably give Link a run.

Snake is I think stronger than Cloud 2010, and Cloud got 46.5% on Link. Link has likely weakened a bit since 2010 too. So Link/Snake 1v1 is actually within not-bats*** insane debate range.

And Snake should be the favorite in the final with Mario there. No one cares about poor Snake even in his shining moment of glory though, because people don't really care about much of anything anymore. Welcome to ApathyFAQs.
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