Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1130

#51 | Sorozone | Posted 8/25/2013 9:08:05 PM | message detail
My only problem with the Leon pic is that annoying shadow(lol) that covers half his face.
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#52 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/25/2013 9:08:05 PM | message detail
I've never thought that bad pics really effect the early vote much, anyway. If you follow the contest enough to vote in the 5 minutes you likely already know who is in the match. Lets see how Leon does after a few updates
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#53 | creativename | Posted 8/25/2013 9:08:20 PM | message detail
superange128 posted...
creativename posted...
Blah, I was nervous about Shadow taking 2nd here. Hopefully Gordon just had a bad board vote.

Nope, BioWare said no more Shep.

And another Western character bites the dust.


eh Shepard seems like one of those character memorable enough to stay consistent for at least 3 more years to me

Western characters historically have a very short shelf life on this site though.

If any western character can counter that it's probably Shep, but if I was a fan I'd be very worried for him.
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#54 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:08:53 PM | message detail
Bad pics definitely have an effect from the start. B8 is actually probably MORE likely to vote for a character based on a pic than the average voter.
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#55 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2013 9:09:50 PM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
I've never thought that bad pics really effect the early vote much, anyway. If you follow the contest enough to vote in the 5 minutes you likely already know who is in the match. Lets see how Leon does after a few updates


Indeed - Lugia's first five minutes were more than fine, but then he had an epic collapse the likes of which most bandwagon joke characters have a tough time rivaling. Not saying Leon will necessarily collapse like that, but let's see what the next few updates hold in store.
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#56 | pjbasis | Posted 8/25/2013 9:09:52 PM | message detail
leon had the board vote?
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#57 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/25/2013 9:09:59 PM | message detail
Stall!
#58 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/25/2013 9:10:10 PM | message detail
#59 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:10:25 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
107----1------------100.00
106----1------------100.00
105----0------------0.00
104----3------------100.00
103----3------------66.67
102----11----------36.36
101----37----------29.73
100----46----------23.91
99------49----------24.49
98------84----------26.19
97------80----------32.50
96------119--------36.13
95------109--------33.94
94------131--------30.53
93------145--------28.28
92------188--------30.85
91------251--------27.89
90------247--------24.70
89------286--------29.37
88------342--------24.85
87------394--------27.66
86------450--------24.22
85------501--------26.95
84------515--------27.18
83------569--------23.55
82------562--------25.27
81------575--------21.57
80------594--------18.01
79------606--------21.12
78------556--------22.84
77------561--------18.89
76------507--------21.30
75------479--------17.95
74------465--------23.01
73------402--------19.40
72------400--------18.25
71------329--------24.01
70------374--------23.80
69------333--------19.82
68------295--------20.68
67------271--------20.30
66------245--------25.71
65------216--------17.13
64------207--------21.26
63------195--------17.44
62------167--------25.15
61------173--------20.23
60------199--------20.60
59------143--------25.87
58------155--------21.94
57------155--------16.77
56------129--------26.36
55------109--------16.51
54------132--------18.94
53------92----------16.30
52------88----------12.50
51------103--------17.48
50------70----------17.14
49------71----------18.31
48------62----------20.97
47------65----------10.77
46------58----------17.24
45------59----------13.56
44------59----------16.95
43------60----------10.00
42------32----------15.63
41------39----------7.69
40------35----------17.14
39------34----------11.76
38------15----------0.00
37------24----------4.17
36------25----------0.00
35------23----------4.35
34------15----------13.33
33------11----------9.09
32------11----------18.18
31------14----------7.14
30------10----------20.00
29------8------------0.00
28------4------------0.00
27------3------------0.00
26------1------------0.00
25------12----------0.00
24------3------------33.33

Omitted scores got it wrong.

Those at the very, very top got it right and after that prediction percentage drops into the 20s. It rises slightly into the 30s before falling back into the 20s for a long time before fading away. Having some contest knowledge helpped but largely everyone got hammered hard.

23 people fell off the Top 49. wakeuptogashi, Ambertwo, Board8_BOP, Cipher_Miror_B, DGKMO, Doooooooooougie, Empyrean_Sand, foxhead84, Gandalfsam, iGenesis, KCGemini, Kumatora, Leebo86, LinkMarioSamus, Link_Fanboy, Luis_Sera89, Mr_Hangman, NewerShadow, Pinkish_Hue, Safer_777, scaryice, scolletti105 and TeamMagmaElite did not have Squirtle winning.

7 people got it wrong and survived. Karma_Hunter, greengravy294, InvisibleOmega, JaySolano, KamikazePotato, KingLionel and Pondos also did not have Squirtle winning.
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Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
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#60 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:10:29 PM | message detail
Still close for second
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 92/117 Today's Picks: Leon Kennedy and Crono
#61 | Sorozone | Posted 8/25/2013 9:10:31 PM | message detail
Battle for 2nd should be good. Leon looking fine, for the most part.
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http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif
#62 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:10:58 PM | message detail
Looks like nobody really had the board vote, honestly. Not much shift in any direction.

Next update could be telling though.
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http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/9919/leonhart.png
#63 | swordz9 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:10:59 PM | message detail
I have Shadow in 2nd. I hope he doesn't mess this up.
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#64 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/25/2013 9:11:03 PM | message detail
Oh wow. Still a 3 vote difference after the update!
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#65 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/25/2013 9:11:20 PM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
looks like Leon got the board vote


Why wouldn't he? This board loves Leon.
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Tornadoman78:
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#66 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2013 9:11:35 PM | message detail
Leon looking okay (so far). Intense battle for second. Another 100 vote stallfest here we come? <_<
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#67 | WhiteLens | Posted 8/25/2013 9:11:51 PM | message detail
I'll be honest, I voted Shadow because of his quote.
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#68 | Qwaar | Posted 8/25/2013 9:12:01 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Leon looking okay (so far). Intense battle for second. Another 100 vote stallfest here we come? <_<


You say that like It's bad thing.
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#69 | Lopen | Posted 8/25/2013 9:12:17 PM | message detail
Pretty sure Shadow's got this (for second, I mean) isn't his board vote usually awful?
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No problem!
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#70 | Sonic_Druid | Posted 8/25/2013 9:12:45 PM | message detail
IMO, the only thing going for Shadow here is Europe's vote. Sonic is very popular over there, so it could be a benefit if Shadow wants to take second here.
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BFC: 2492-6375-2047
#71 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/25/2013 9:12:54 PM | message detail
Shadow was beating Gordon during the board vote.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#72 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:13:16 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Pretty sure Shadow's got this (for second, I mean) isn't his board vote usually awful?


Gordon's is, too, actually. He rose over 2% from the freeze to the end of the first hour last round.
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#73 | WhiteLens | Posted 8/25/2013 9:13:40 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Pretty sure Shadow's got this (for second, I mean) isn't his board vote usually awful?


With that quote I wouldn't be so sure. This board does tend to love SA2.
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#74 | creativename | Posted 8/25/2013 9:13:54 PM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Leon looking okay (so far). Intense battle for second. Another 100 vote stallfest here we come? <_<


You say that like It's bad thing.

Back and forth is good, stallfests are irritating.
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#75 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:14:40 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Most Popular Day Polls
1. Raiden vs. Waluigi vs. Alan Wake – Round 1 – 37721
2. Commander Shepard vs. Aerith Gainsborough vs. Tharja – Round 2 – 36597
3. Big Boss vs. Luigi vs. Ness – Round 2 – 34223
4. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Barret Wallace vs. Dracula – Round 2 – 34205
5. Barret Wallace vs. Professor Layton vs. Reimu Hakurei – Round 1 – 33945
6. Commander Shepard vs. Captain Olimar vs. Kain – Round 1 – 33313
7. Squirtle vs. Dante vs. Zidane Tribal – Round 2 – 33260
8. Yuna vs. Master Chief vs. Claire Redfield – Round 1 – 32792
9. Ryu vs. Yuri Lowell vs. Face McShooty – Round 1 – 32704
10. Solid Snake vs. Isaac vs. Commander Keen – Round 1 – 32667

Top 10 Least Predictable Matches
1. Draven vs. Mega Man X vs. Ryu – Round 2 – 9.20%
2. Yuna vs. Master Chief vs. Claire Redfield – Round 1 – 15.40%
3. Kefka vs. Altair vs. Lara Croft – Round 2 – 22.13%
4. Squirtle vs. Dante vs. Zidane Tribal – Round 2 – 22.27%
5. Urdnot Wrex vs. Cecil Harvey vs. Pit – Round 1 – 23.71%
6. Mr. Game & Watch vs. Lee Everett vs. Meat Boy – Round 1 – 26.40%
7. Catherine vs. Neku Sakaruba vs. Vaas Montenegro – Round 1 – 30.43%
8. Pokemon Trainer Blue vs. Fox McCloud vs. Wolf O’Donnell – Round 1 – 32.98%
9. Big Boss vs. Luigi vs. Ness – Round 2 – 33.61%
10. Mewtwo vs. Phoenix Wright vs. Vincent Valentine – Round 2 – 33.98%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 92/117 Today's Picks: Leon Kennedy and Crono
#76 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:14:43 PM | message detail
I expect to see a jump on this update.

Just not sure which way it goes.
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"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
#77 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:15:06 PM | message detail
There goes Gordon, yep.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
#78 | paulg235 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:15:26 PM | message detail | (edited)
Gordon escaping with 2nd, this looks over.
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Allen didn't screw VV, Phoenix Wright didn't screw VV, Mewtwo certainly did not screw VV,
nor did paulg screw VV. Vincent Valentine screwed Vincent Valentine.
#79 | Qwaar | Posted 8/25/2013 9:15:15 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Pretty sure Shadow's got this (for second, I mean) isn't his board vote usually awful?


Gordon's board vote is even worse.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#80 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/25/2013 9:15:26 PM | message detail
No one jumped but Shadow crashed hard.
#81 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/25/2013 9:15:32 PM | message detail
#82 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/25/2013 9:15:42 PM | message detail
**** you Shadow
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Tornadoman78:
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#83 | pjbasis | Posted 8/25/2013 9:15:44 PM | message detail
Glad I switched to Gordon for second
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#84 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/25/2013 9:15:53 PM | message detail
I feel like Shadow's reputation has run the gamut: starting as badass, then being seen as cringeworthy, and then finally being seen as "ironically" awesome.

That's the vibe I get, anyway.
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#85 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:16:09 PM | message detail
Nah, Leon's fine. All of these characters are night(ish) oriented, so there really shouldn't be a lot of movement.
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#86 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/25/2013 9:16:29 PM | message detail
From: pjbasis | #083
Glad I switched to Gordon for second

That's what I'm thinking at this point.
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Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords.
With what? ROT-13? -CJayC
#87 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:16:51 PM | message detail
TheCodeisBosco posted...
I feel like Shadow's reputation has run the gamut: starting as badass, then being seen as cringeworthy, and then finally being seen as "ironically" awesome.

That's the vibe I get, anyway.


No, people still don't like Shadow.
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http://i.imgur.com/kCpvD.gif
#88 | pjbasis | Posted 8/25/2013 9:17:43 PM | message detail
#89 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/25/2013 9:18:26 PM | message detail
I picked Leon > Gordon > Shadow, but I also thought that Leon/Gordon would have some overlap, say uh, White Action Hero of GotY From mid-2000s SFF or whatever
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#90 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:20:39 PM | message detail
Everything heading towards the expected
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 92/117 Today's Picks: Leon Kennedy and Crono
#91 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/25/2013 9:20:47 PM | message detail
Almost back on the leaderboard!
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#92 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:20:48 PM | message detail
This match would've been heavily debated if Shadow was anyone even slightly more trustworthy. Imagine Ammy or Kefka in this spot. Missed opportunity.
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#93 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:21:23 PM | message detail
Yeah, this one should be pretty firmly entrenched now.

But on the bright side, this match was interesting for approximately 15 minutes longer than I expected.
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#94 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:21:29 PM | message detail
I just described Kefka as trustworthy. Well, relative to Shadow, I guess he is.
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#95 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/25/2013 9:22:30 PM | message detail
Kefka's pretty trustworthy now. He's had nothing but solid performances since 2010, including RR.
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#96 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/25/2013 9:22:48 PM | message detail
Kefka probably wins this poll outright.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#97 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/25/2013 9:23:42 PM | message detail
I'd take Kefka first here
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#98 | Xuxon | Posted 8/25/2013 9:24:09 PM | message detail
From: Kotetsu534 | Posted: 8/26/2013 12:20:48 AM | #092
This match would've been heavily debated if Shadow was anyone even slightly more trustworthy. Imagine Ammy or Kefka in this spot. Missed opportunity.

Kefka winning this match could have also led to Squirtle > Cloud. i'm glad he gets to win 2 other matches instead.
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#99 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/25/2013 9:24:12 PM | message detail
haha, passed Allen in the expert challenge now!
#100 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/25/2013 9:24:41 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Kefka's pretty trustworthy now. He's had nothing but solid performances since 2010, including RR.


And with that, sooner or later, in one of these things, I expect everyone to overestimate Kefka and go "O_O WTF???" when he bombs again.
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