Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1128

#351 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/25/2013 12:47:42 AM | message detail
It's kind of weird. In the Villains Contest and in the female bracket, we never got the setup for two SFF matches a lot of us really wanted to see in Bowser/Ganon and Tifa/Aerith.

I mean, I think everyone even in 2006 would've expected Tifa to whip Aerith into shape, but I still wanted to see it! Wish we could've gotten Tifa/Zelda in 2006 instead of Zelda/Aerith though.
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#352 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/25/2013 1:14:57 AM | message detail
This is like one heck of an underperformance by Cloud, really underwhelming if you ask me. According to his round 1 performance on Prinny, Cloud is only expected to score 64% on Ike and we already saw how strong Ike turn out to be.

FFVII is dead.
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#353 | nkansas13 | Posted 8/25/2013 1:20:43 AM | message detail
JustForFun1988 posted...
This is like one heck of an underperformance by Cloud, really underwhelming if you ask me. According to his round 1 performance on Prinny, Cloud is only expected to score 64% on Ike and we already saw how strong Ike turn out to be.

FFVII is dead.

Still the strongest game on the site.
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#354 | CP724 | Posted 8/25/2013 1:22:42 AM | message detail
Cloud got 71% ridley and 66% against ryu in 2010.

Cloud has probably weakened again, but please dont use his matches against fodder to mean anything. They're utterly worthless as a gauge of his strength.
#355 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/25/2013 1:23:50 AM | message detail
CP724 posted...
Cloud got 71% ridley and 66% against ryu in 2010.

Cloud has probably weakened again, but please dont use his matches against fodder to mean anything. They're utterly worthless as a gauge of his strength.


Lol, are we looking at this match. If you wanna call Frog fodder then go ahead.
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#356 | CP724 | Posted 8/25/2013 1:24:49 AM | message detail
According to his round 1 performance on Prinny
According to his round 1 performance on Prinny
According to his round 1 performance on Prinny
#357 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2013 1:28:03 AM | message detail
Frog *has* been kind of fodder lineish for basically his entire contest history outside of 2004.

...Cloud's real issue is that he's got 62% on Frog when he put 66% on Ryu last contest. He was on track to crush that in the early night but Frog is just not dying despite Europe being up and voting. I don't really get it - definitely Cloud and FF7 having lost a serious step, but Frog is really doing something impressive for CT here. I just don't quite know what. :/
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#358 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2013 1:29:33 AM | message detail
And it's not that Cloud hasn't been gaining percentage! He's at 47%+ now and will probably end around 50%. But Frog keeps gaining right with him. They just keep tearing it out of Lugia's worthless hide.
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#359 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/25/2013 1:30:24 AM | message detail
CP724 posted...
According to his round 1 performance on Prinny
According to his round 1 performance on Prinny
According to his round 1 performance on Prinny


Just corroborating the fact that Cloud didn't exactly turn out to be as non-linear as we originally thought. I am basing my judgment on this match, not on the Prinny match,

62% on the same Frog that did just about alright in his first match is awful no matter how hard you slice it.
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#360 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/25/2013 1:34:17 AM | message detail
47% broken... Seriously? It's a shame Draven is around to squash Link, I do want him to win but if he wasn't around Cloud would probably beat Link in the final.
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#361 | Achromatic | Posted 8/25/2013 1:35:04 AM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
47% broken... Seriously? It's a shame Draven is around to squash Link, I do want him to win but if he wasn't around Cloud would probably beat Link in the final.


good sarcasm bro
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#362 | CP724 | Posted 8/25/2013 1:41:39 AM | message detail
Just corroborating the fact that Cloud didn't exactly turn out to be as non-linear as we originally thought. I am basing my judgment on this match, not on the Prinny match,

62% on the same Frog that did just about alright in his first match is awful no matter how hard you slice it.


You dont get 69% on captain falcon and then 53% on Link without being absurdly non-linear

But yeah it does look like hes dropped a bit from 2010. It might only be a very small one though, he can still get close to the doubling on Frog , hes starting to die off a bit now.
#363 | CP724 | Posted 8/25/2013 1:42:08 AM | message detail
I mean 47% on Link, heh.
#364 | -Zelmor- | Posted 8/25/2013 1:42:31 AM | message detail
If Crono made it past Pikachu, we could be seeing Snake > Crono > Cloud.
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#365 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2013 1:42:49 AM | message detail
Also if you're considering Crono's traditional proportion to Frog (on average, he indirectly doubles him through the years) then uh... you need to seriously consider Crono > Cloud if that proportion holds, especially in something like a 12 hour night match. Because Frog is not dying off like he should.
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#366 | -Zelmor- | Posted 8/25/2013 1:47:25 AM | message detail
Ignore what I said, that'd mean Squall is stronger than Cloud indirectly.
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#367 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 8/25/2013 1:47:55 AM | message detail
nkansas13 posted...
JustForFun1988 posted...
This is like one heck of an underperformance by Cloud, really underwhelming if you ask me. According to his round 1 performance on Prinny, Cloud is only expected to score 64% on Ike and we already saw how strong Ike turn out to be.

FFVII is dead.

Still the strongest game on the site.


I guess you missed the last game contest.

And there's a debate now for a handful of games like Pokemon red to be stronger than FFVII. But I'd still take FFVII to be 2nd. For now.
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#368 | Achromatic | Posted 8/25/2013 1:55:04 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Also if you're considering Crono's traditional proportion to Frog (on average, he indirectly doubles him through the years) then uh... you need to seriously consider Crono > Cloud if that proportion holds, especially in something like a 12 hour night match. Because Frog is not dying off like he should.


Chrono Trigger boost, except no one likes Magus.

Let's do it.
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#369 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2013 1:58:34 AM | message detail
I mean, to give you guys some perspective here, these hours are when Vincent absolutely brutalized Crono in his historic upset. Crono was losing these hours letting VV get 57-59% of the vote in a match where he had been winning the entire poll over VV with 56-57% prior.

FF7's trends are still roughly stable relative to Lugia based on this. But why isn't CT dying?
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#370 | CP724 | Posted 8/25/2013 2:01:01 AM | message detail
Yeah frog holding up like this doesnt make much sense. Maybe give it a couple more hours.
#371 | Achromatic | Posted 8/25/2013 2:01:11 AM | message detail
Kh, check the euro map.

Only Britain is really letting Frog slip.
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#372 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/25/2013 2:02:38 AM | message detail
CT was released in Europe on the DS in.. 2008?
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#373 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/25/2013 2:03:28 AM | message detail
-Zelmor- posted...
Ignore what I said, that'd mean Squall is stronger than Cloud indirectly.


Not seeing the problem here tbqh
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#374 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2013 2:04:55 AM | message detail
Well yes, it means Frog isn't getting massacred in Europe right now. That's what it essentially has to mean. But that just raises so many questions on its own.

I'm not exaggerating when I say this to me this is probably CT's most impressive performance since Mario/Crono III (or Frog/Snake, but that is an ill harbinger...), and completely out of left field for me. It's not just exposing Cloud. It's the trends. When the hell is the last time they haven't bombed after three hours into the match?
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#375 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/25/2013 2:05:40 AM | message detail
Well, that was Cloud's best hour and Frog's worst hour right there. Maybe we're just seeing a slight delay?
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#376 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2013 2:09:54 AM | message detail
Oh, don't think I haven't been paying attention to the trends - Frog is definitely doing worse, no doubt about it. But that's a slight dull, a meaningless dip compared to the plunge CT likes to take. Frog's overall peak in this match was 29.02%, it's down to all of 28.54% right now. There's only so much I can blame on Lugia being horrible!
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#377 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/25/2013 2:10:10 AM | message detail
I think it's funny that we're only now piling into Sephiroth when it's Cloud that's doing so completely abysmally here. That said:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3303

Kirby was worth 37.5% on Sephiroth in that match in 2008.

I think Kirby winning is extremely unlikely, but for numbers for Kirby to reach that sound very high but might be realistic if you assume a huge FFVII drop:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1759 (2004)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3843 (2010)

If Sephiroth fails to beat Squall's percentage on Kirby, Sephiroth should definitely no longer be consider a real elite like Link/Mario/Samus/Snake/Cloud (Though, uh, Cloud might have some things to prove too after seeing this match) and dropped to "hanging around or maybe slightly above the near-elites" like 2006-2010 Crono and Sonic were. We'll see where Crono and Sonic end up nowadays since it's been 3 years but yeah. Getting an only slightly better number than Squall's would obviously still look terrible for Sephiroth and we could still consider dropping him but 55.01% on Kirby is the number for him to shoot for to not disgrace himself utterly.
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#378 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/25/2013 2:11:23 AM | message detail
"But what about Mega Man?"

Shifting gears a lot, it's time to eviscerate someone not from FFVII. What about Mega Man? Looking at everything we know now, he never looked notably better than post-Nintendo boost Sonic and Crono. And he probably didn't boost in 2010.

2005. Almost loses to Sonic, 48.65% on Crono.

2006. Lets Sora break 45% on him. The x-stats have Sonic > Mega Man > Crono > Vincent > Squall, all of which lost to Snake or each other without a Snake sprite being involved. Sonic only gets 52.9% on Squall.

2007. Mega Man got 57.2% on Yoshi despite having doubled him in 2005. Squall beat that in 2008. Mega Man did get close to Samus the next round thanks to Nintendo LFF and NES sprite Samus (we've never seen Samus tank with a bad picture or another Noble Niner crash thanks to NES sprites, right guys?), but he still only got 61.4% on LFFed Yoshi and then got obliterated down to an abysmal 39% on Samus next round. 2003 Squall and 2004 Sonic both got way above that. He also got doubled by Cloud, something 2003 Sonic narrowly avoided. Mega Man's only way to really save face there is Capcom LFF with Ryu or "Last" Place Factor...despite him getting third.

2008. I'm not going to take a swing at Mega Man for the Cube disaster (other than say good job by Mega Man fans for dooming him by letting Zero beat Vivi in a close match), but he let Tidus improve by over 3% against Mega Man/Tidus 2004.

Mega Man's opponents in 2010 that he supposedly impressed against were Cid Highwind, Zack Fair, and Ryu Hayabusa. Hayabusa, Zack, and FFVII in general have looked so good this contest, right?

Bowser got 61.68% on Kefka and Mega Man got 61.66% on Zack. If you consider Kefka got an unfavorable 12 hours (Day Kefka against Nintendo), Zack got a favorable 12 hours (Final Fantasy against Mega Man in Europe's best time), drop the idea that Mega Man boosted rather than did pretty much the same as he had the last few contests (AKA not good at all!), and perhaps assume Hayabusa voters would slightly favor Zack, Kefka beating Zack basically makes sense and you don't even need to assume a second crazy Kefka boost since 2010.

Which admittedly makes me sad because I love Kefka but that's what the data indicates. I may still take Kefka > Vincent though because seriously, what the hell is Cloud doing in this match? Kefka > Frog based on 2010, and Frog is still above 37% on Cloud and barely dropping in the TDZ. I'm not entirely sure Vincent was ever worth this much on Cloud! Maybe paulg didn't sabotage Vincent; he might have sabotaged Mewtwo and Phoenix by giving Vincent an easy out. At this rate, 60% on KOS-MOS could have been exactly what it looked like.

Back to picking on Mega Man. Some called "boosted" Mega Man getting only 41.62% on Mario SFF. If it was there at all, I'd guess it was extremely minor. Besides all these other bad Mega Man performances, we have MMX failing to get notably SFFed by Mario in 2008. For another, people thought Zero's 37.14% on Mario in 2005 might be SFF too. Zero's later performances do not do a good job at bearing this out. Give him not a single percent of SFF and he's still slightly above Luigi in the 2005 x-stats. We saw how that worked out in 2006.

Maybe Mega Man is better now. Things seemed to have changed a lot in 3 years as you can clearly see by Cloud vs. Frog WHAT IN THE WORLD. Maybe Mega Man will boost from Smash 4; even Brawl didn't stop Sonic from struggling though considering Sonic vs. Sub-Zero I it might have stopped him from collapsing entirely. And for all we know, maybe Sonic and Crono are better now too. This Frog performance might suggest so for one of them!

But in past contests Mega Man was never on his own tier above Sonic and Crono but below the other Noble Niners. If he hasn't boosted, he could conceivably lose in MM/Zero/Charizard EVEN IF Charizard is a huge fraud.
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#379 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/25/2013 2:12:14 AM | message detail
These vote totals are really killing characters like Cloud.
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#380 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/25/2013 2:17:12 AM | message detail
#381 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/25/2013 2:29:35 AM | message detail
Lara was leading by 100 when I went to sleep and then she lost..great
Expert challenge can really be despressing
A character leading for 9 hours just to lose the lead for 3 and it's over
Almost as annoying as the Boko match
Why di I always call those close matches wrong...?

Anyway,lol Lugia free falling..."I have failed" indeed
6.5 more hours till a REAL Pokemon goes on rampage
#382 | Lopen | Posted 8/25/2013 2:31:08 AM | message detail
Yeah Squirtle's going to go on a rampage... all over Zidane.
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#383 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/25/2013 2:45:16 AM | message detail
I don't know
Im playing DMC currently and...I hope for Dante's sake that im the only one with this opinion
I would vote for Squirtle no matter what,but right now I feel like I want...to do it for the sake of anti voting Dante
Yeah,sorry but new Dante is the Dante I "remember"
The Succubus scene made me cry
#384 | Achromatic | Posted 8/25/2013 2:50:26 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhdl5gB3CQc

remember the good times.
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#385 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/25/2013 2:50:41 AM | message detail
Round Spoilers

Zidane gets a surprise upset over Dante and Squirtle with "old" FF strength, Freeman beats out Leon, Zidane LFFs Cloud and we get Freeman > Cloud and this place becomes more and more like Gamespot.
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#386 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/25/2013 2:51:42 AM | message detail
I will be OK with GF as a champion tbh
#387 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/25/2013 2:52:09 AM | message detail
Also, speaking of Freeman, there's another guy who could actually go head-to-head with Draven in a rally-off. We gotta keep him in mind if he wins his next match.
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#388 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/25/2013 2:58:48 AM | message detail
Over/Under on Frog ending the match with 34.93% on Cloud?

That's the percentage 2003 Magus got on Link.
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#389 | Achromatic | Posted 8/25/2013 3:05:10 AM | message detail
-.42 that hour for Frog.

Cloud is finally getting going.
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#390 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/25/2013 3:07:22 AM | message detail
Yeah,it's no longer Lugia falling like crazy anymore...he actually cut Frog a few times
But it's Cloud rising now
#391 | Acerac | Posted 8/25/2013 3:13:50 AM | message detail
How far we've come from GFNW.
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#392 | CP724 | Posted 8/25/2013 3:17:24 AM | message detail
ok frog is collapsing pretty hard now, Cloud should end up 65-35ing at least. Which is a bit dissapointing but not horrible.
#393 | Achromatic | Posted 8/25/2013 3:20:55 AM | message detail
CP724 posted...
ok frog is collapsing pretty hard now, Cloud should end up 65-35ing at least. Which is a bit dissapointing but not horrible.


No, it is pretty horrible <_<.

I mean if that isn't downright horrible then Pikachu is in a whole lot of trouble.
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#394 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/25/2013 3:22:35 AM | message detail
48% now reached on the combined forces of Pokemon and Chrono Trigger... wow... I don't want to overreact here but this is scary from Cloud.
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#395 | CP724 | Posted 8/25/2013 3:22:57 AM | message detail
what would you consider non horrible?
#396 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/25/2013 3:24:06 AM | message detail
CP724 posted...
ok frog is collapsing pretty hard now, Cloud should end up 65-35ing at least. Which is a bit dissapointing but not horrible.


Ok, we get you already. No need to come into this topic and defend Cloud hourly. Cloud looks horrible here but it doesn't matter since his path is pretty much set in stone.
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#397 | Achromatic | Posted 8/25/2013 3:26:56 AM | message detail
CP724 posted...
what would you consider non horrible?


A doubling, then it would just be "bad." Cloud was projected to get 71%+ on Frog. Stats aren't precise but this is either a horrific outing by Cloud, an amazing display by Frog, or probably a mix of the two.
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#398 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/25/2013 3:28:33 AM | message detail
ZinsanityCraze posted...
CP724 posted...
ok frog is collapsing pretty hard now, Cloud should end up 65-35ing at least. Which is a bit dissapointing but not horrible.


Ok, we get you already. No need to come into this topic and defend Cloud hourly. Cloud looks horrible here but it doesn't matter since his path is pretty much set in stone.


Yeah, losing to Gordon Freeman next round!

Don't fight the GFAW.
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#399 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/25/2013 3:31:29 AM | message detail
#400 | Lopen | Posted 8/25/2013 3:32:55 AM | message detail
So if Dante (or if you must, Squirtle) kicks ass tomorrow what percentage would be required to at least humor taking him over Cloud next round
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