Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1128

#251 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/24/2013 10:44:39 PM | message detail
Lugia confirmed for joke character.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#252 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/24/2013 10:46:22 PM | message detail
I want this Lugia to face off against Vincent Valentine with that awful picture he got.
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#253 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:48:08 PM | message detail
GloryChaos posted...
I want this Lugia to face off against Vincent Valentine with that awful picture he got.


spoilers: Lugia wins
#254 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/24/2013 10:49:32 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
xp1337 posted...
Why stop at SFF?

Frog being rSFF'd!


Noble Nine at last


If Frog is an NNer then we might be able to safely pick Crono>Magus>Pikachu.
#255 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 10:51:04 PM | message detail
This Lugia has less than 47% on Frog right now and is almost certain to fall like a rock even more. Vincent Vega put up 46% on Phoenix Wright.
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#256 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/24/2013 11:03:32 PM | message detail
If we ever get that wacky all-fictional character contest people keep going on about, we need to do a nomination rally for Vincent Vega and then submit that picture (or close equivalents that fulfill the pic requirements) en masse and see if Bacon picks it.
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#257 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 11:04:13 PM | message detail
Yikes Cloud what are you doing

On the bright side Squall might be the strongest FF character now
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#258 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 11:05:34 PM | message detail
also should I be considering Big Boss > Kirby > Seph for Expert next round
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#259 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 11:05:56 PM | message detail
Cloud's still got distance to go but he's hitting pace now to get to the numbers I want to see out of him. Smooshing Frog 6%+ more will be a tall task, though.
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#260 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/24/2013 11:07:29 PM | message detail
It is indeed hard to argue that this guy is still our #2 after this performance.
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#261 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/24/2013 11:07:35 PM | message detail
WHAT IF SPYRO NEVER BOOSTED AND SEPHIROTH WAS JUST THAT BAD NOW
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#262 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 11:09:12 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
WHAT IF SPYRO NEVER BOOSTED AND SEPHIROTH WAS JUST THAT BAD NOW


Then Sephiroth is slightly stronger than 2002 Morrigan. <<
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#263 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 11:09:12 PM | message detail
Trend chart for the day match:

Time | Altair | Lara | Kefka | Votes
0:05 | 25.10% | 29.22% | 45.69% | 510
1:00 | 27.77% | 30.05% | 42.18% | 4606
2:00 | 28.81% | 29.20% | 41.99% | 3544
3:00 | 28.95% | 29.55% | 41.50% | 3029
4:00 | 28.53% | 28.22% | 43.25% | 2636
5:00 | 28.76% | 27.87% | 43.38% | 2469
6:00 | 29.51% | 29.15% | 41.35% | 2230
7:00 | 29.74% | 28.37% | 41.89% | 2041
8:00 | 29.89% | 28.57% | 41.54% | 1750
9:00 | 30.19% | 28.63% | 41.18% | 1673
10:00 | 31.63% | 26.94% | 41.44% | 1600
11:00 | 29.46% | 29.32% | 41.23% | 1453
12:00 | 32.12% | 27.38% | 40.50% | 1479

Win the last nine hours of the match, barely win by 100 votes. Go home, Altair. You're drunk. Also Kefka being remarkably consistent in a day match what is this

X-Stats:

Kefka – 50.00%
Zack Fair – 46.29%
Ryu Hayabusa – 43.90%
Altair – 41.10%
Lara Croft – 40.74%
Ratchet – 34.87%
Slime – 29.38%
Shulk – 27.92%
Yuri Hyuga – 12.06%

Kefka's prediction percentage was 22.13%
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#264 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/24/2013 11:09:51 PM | message detail
Lugia came so close to not dropping in percentage that update. This is quite impressive from it, honestly. What a board vote.
#265 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 11:10:47 PM | message detail
Frog currently projects Cloud to lose to Bowser

Seriously let's get Boss > Kirby > Seph going
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#266 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/24/2013 11:11:26 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Also Kefka being remarkably consistent in a day match what is this


Being a weekend probably helped that a bit.
#267 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/24/2013 11:11:49 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Frog currently projects Cloud to lose to Bowser

Seriously let's get Boss > Kirby > Seph going


you mean Kirby>Boss>Seph
yeahhhhhh
#268 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 11:12:03 PM | message detail
Cloud certainly won't hit his numbers if Frog is able to percentage stall like that much. As a bit of a scary thought - Frog has an outside longshot at cutting Cloud this match. Though the timeframe is short since the TDZ is coming up.
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#269 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 11:13:08 PM | message detail
Current X-Stats:

Cloud Strife – 50.00%
Frog – 38.35%
Lugia – 35.20%
Prinny – 26.33%
Viewtiful Joe – 25.96%
Handsome Jack – 24.96%
Sly Cooper – 22.87%
Senator Steven Armstrong – 13.52%
Francis York Morgan – 11.81%
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#270 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/24/2013 11:14:11 PM | message detail
Lugia finally increases. Was that a record?
#271 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 11:14:11 PM | message detail
LUGIA DID IT!
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#272 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 11:14:35 PM | message detail
#273 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 11:14:42 PM | message detail
boooooooooooooooooooougia
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#274 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/24/2013 11:14:58 PM | message detail
Perhaps I'm getting carried away here, but I've gotta start wondering how much of a boost Kirby even needs to challenge Sephiroth. The two muscled very similar percentages (both in night matches - something that benefits Seph a hell of a lot more than it does Kirby) against competition that really doesn't seem worlds apart.

Sure, you take Morrigan over Elizabeth, but you also take Crash over Spyro.
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#275 | Sorozone (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/24/2013 11:15:20 PM | message detail
I am pretty damn tempted to pick Big Boss over Seph, not sure on Kirby.
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#276 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 11:15:47 PM | message detail
Nah, I'm honestly half expecting Seph to lose next round at this point. His one potential saving grace is that it's 24 hours.
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#277 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 11:17:54 PM | message detail | (edited)
24 hour match helps Seph's percentage a lot more than it helps Kirby. The performances aren't identical.

Kirby can still win but it'll be due to similar standout bandwagon shenanigans that he pulled in '08.

Edit: And of course, Crash got Icon SFFed.
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#278 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 11:17:47 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Kirby can still win but it'll be due to similar standout bandwagon shenanigans that he pulled in '08.


This time, there won't be a Raiden in the way.

Big Boss has got this

http://pspmedia.ign.com/psp/image/article/748/748717/metal-gear-solid-portable-ops-20061201022459240-000.jpg
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#279 | CP724 | Posted 8/24/2013 11:18:50 PM | message detail
Did you guys forget how bad Cloud looked in his early 2k10 matches. Hes probably dropped a couple of points yeah but people are overeactiing. He'd still be the favorite over someone like Samus.
#280 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/24/2013 11:19:08 PM | message detail
But if Seph has dropped AGAIN in the last three years (it seems quite likely), we're not just looking at a picture where Snake/Mario/Samus dispatch him with ease - that was already the case in 2010. Now, he could easily drop matches to Mega Man and Sonic, and like it or not, Kirby really isn't that far behind those guys, especially if the Nintendo fans see him as a sort of "cause."

Beating Sephiroth is certainly "cause" enough.
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#281 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 11:20:35 PM | message detail
Kirby's biggest problem is Big Boss (conversely, Big Boss's biggest problem is Kirby). The bandwagon here is sundering and that will likely be the downfall. Big Boss isn't going to fold.
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#282 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 11:21:42 PM | message detail
Cloud stop tanking percentage please
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#283 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/24/2013 11:22:11 PM | message detail
lol this is all highly amusing, watching everybody try to justify doubling Crash Bandicoot being strong enough for Kirby to take out Sephiroth.
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#284 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/24/2013 11:22:39 PM | message detail
Everyone can fold. Snake and Crono have folded like origami before - it just depends on the nature of the match. If Kirby storms out to a lead, it could turn into a two horse race and Boss could get abandoned.
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#285 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 11:22:48 PM | message detail
Of course if Sephiroth is weak enough theoretically it might not matter if neither Kirby or BB fold and they just both pass him.

...theoretically.
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#286 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 11:25:12 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Everyone can fold. Snake and Crono have folded like origami before - it just depends on the nature of the match. If Kirby storms out to a lead, it could turn into a two horse race and Boss could get abandoned.


Or everyone will be close early on, Big Boss will storm ahead overnight, and Kirby will get abandoned...!

Seriously, I don't expect any sort of LPF next round.
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#287 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/24/2013 11:25:15 PM | message detail
Kirby doubled Crash Bandicoot, but Sephiroth 70/30'd Spyro.
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#288 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 11:26:06 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Everyone can fold. Snake and Crono have folded like origami before - it just depends on the nature of the match. If Kirby storms out to a lead, it could turn into a two horse race and Boss could get abandoned.


Look at the matches in which they folded. They contained the top three characters in the contest and were the exception that proves the rule, and there's a lot more rule examples for those characters than there are exceptions. We're not talking about sprite BB or something, we're talking freeform pictures with a guy who's already just straight up stronger than Kirby if the Luigi match is any indication. BB's fanbase will not abandon him, not when they have just as much reason to be salivating over taking out Seph.
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#289 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 11:26:09 PM | message detail
Crash would beat Spyro, no doubt about that.
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#290 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/24/2013 11:29:20 PM | message detail | (edited)
I still feel pretty good about Seph's chances though. He'll fall behind early, but Kirby will need to do a lot of work to prevent him storming back, and he's got to hang on for 24 hours (which helps FFVII more than anything else in the contest).
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#291 | CP724 | Posted 8/24/2013 11:30:50 PM | message detail
But if Seph has dropped AGAIN in the last three years (it seems quite likely), we're not just looking at a picture where Snake/Mario/Samus dispatch him with ease - that was already the case in 2010. Now, he could easily drop matches to Mega Man and Sonic, and like it or not, Kirby really isn't that far behind those guys, especially if the Nintendo fans see him as a sort of "cause."

Beating Sephiroth is certainly "cause" enough.


I was talking about Cloud, yeah these days seph would lose to those three most likely (He would have a slim chance versus Samus/Mario I think). In 2010 though he wouldve beaten Samus and Mario in 24 hour matches probably and put up about 48.5% on Snake. So that wasnt the case in 2010.
#292 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/24/2013 11:42:58 PM | message detail | (edited)
According to the xstats, Big Boss 2010 vs Luigi 2010 comes out 48/52 in Luigi's favor. If we assume that Ness's votes get split 70/30 in Luigi's favor, that match played out exactly as it should have, with a few tenths of a percentage leeway one way or the other.

That means that for Big Boss to win, either Squall has to have dropped from 2010, Big Boss has to have raised from 2010, or Kirby has to steal a heavier portions of his votes from Squall than BB, in order to make up a 5.5% deficit.

Assuming, of course, that Squall's numbers are also accurate.

Edit: Woops, for some reason I kept thinking that Squall is in that match, when it's Sephiroth. Teaches me to type while I'm about to fall asleep lol. But my point still stands, and the gap is even wider going up against Seph.
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#293 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/24/2013 11:40:13 PM | message detail
Ya know, after Aerith and Barrett somewhat redeemed themselves this round, we could be looking at a contest where the best FFVII performers are the two broads and the black guy.

DiversiFAQs
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#294 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 11:42:03 PM | message detail
What does Squall have to do with Big Boss or Luigi? Their number doesn't depend on him at all.
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#295 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/24/2013 11:43:23 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
What does Squall have to do with Big Boss or Luigi? Their number doesn't depend on him at all.


Sorry, I just went back and added an edit to my post.
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#296 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 11:44:34 PM | message detail
Big Boss is worth 48% on Luigi assuming a 70/30 Ness split in a day match. In a 24 hour match he's 49%+ and conceivably 50/50 with the aforementioned split depending on how good his night vote is. Luigi's above Kirby so Big Boss should be a mild favorite against Kirby in a neutral match.

I don't think the match is neutral per se - it's two Playstation badasses and a pink puff ball - but each side has a lot of intangibles. Kirby could end up in last depending on how things shake out.
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#297 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/24/2013 11:45:27 PM | message detail
Also Cloud's percentage hasn't budged in 40 minutes. Are we so sure that 24-hour matches would benefit FFVII THAT much these days? If (please remember: I'm saying IF) we actually see a scenario where he's struggling with Squirtle, is that second set of 12 daytime hours reeeeeeeeally gonna benefit him over the Pokemon?
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#298 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 11:46:09 PM | message detail
#299 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/24/2013 11:46:58 PM | message detail
It still hasn't budged in 40 minutes!
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#300 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 11:47:01 PM | message detail
Check the trend charts for Seph's match (and this one, when it's over). Yeah, they still visibly strengthen as the match goes on, and are noticeably stronger in 24 hour matches.
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