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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1128
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ChenKenichiFan posted... If you went Cloud > Bank > Bank and he went with Cloud > Wrong > Wrong, you've already cut his lead by over a third. Yeah, but I gotta assume that this guy is smarter than me and is gonna pick Cloud>Right>Right. So I must do the same and hope everyone around me flubs it or - better yet - he flubs it while I get it. Is it a good strategy? Not really. Totally still doing it. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Going
big does bite you in the ass. I'm living proof of that. I was 6th or
7th...3 days ago. I was off the leaderboard, until the Altair > Lara
result placed me back at 49th. I'm stilling going to play big of go home though. --- http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif |
Dante should be thanking the Based God that Squirtle doesn't have his shades with him. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
KamikazePotato posted... I have absolutely no faith in Dante beating Squirtle. I took him in everything, but yeah. Squirtle is going to have such a ridiculous early vote, Dante will be playing catchup all day. I'd feel much more confident in Dante if it was 24-hours long. I don't know about this. Two characters that had monstrous early votes (Lugia and Epona) failed to do it against established characters this round. Very early board surge yeah but they didn't soul crush. --- And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that! I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!! |
Expert Challenge strategy is kind of weird. I think KP is right that if you want prizes you need to take risks where they present themselves, so long as they're relatively smart ones. But the hivemind is just so weird sometimes, I'm not sure you can predict that thing! You probably could play it safe this round though. The way the points progress there's some logic to just hanging around and then going for the strike in a later round where you can have massive point swings. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
This
actually ends up being a bad result for Square in general because old
Square is effectively done while new Square still have matches they need
to go out and win. If Cloud underperforms badly enough that he can't
even net 50%, no matter the reason, then I am more confident than ever
that Kirby > Seph is in play. Hell, I'd start to get fearful that
Dragonborn could redeem himself and make a go at the handicapped Tifa. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif |
KamikazePotato posted... ChenKenichiFan posted...This is the fourth straight match in a row where I'm really glad I played it safe with Expert picks. I'm within striking distance of the leaderboard and feel I can easily find myself in contention if Kirby > Sephiroth plays out. Biding one's time and betting big on the matches you can really feel in your gut is such a better strategy than always risking it (and risking it more and more when you fall behind). Too bad I don't have the discipline to always play this way. Agreed. I've never banked or hedged a single match yet and I'm 16th right now. I got as high as 15th in the middle of R1, fell way off the leaderboard with a series of horrible picks, but I've nearly climbed my way back thanks to R2. Sure, if I had banked all those negative picks I'd be higher right now but hindsight is 20/20~! --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://www.wwe.com/f/wysiwyg/image/2013/07/wyatt07062013.gif |
Yeah, here Cloud comes. And Lugia's not going to be able to keep it together. It just can't. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Lugia is yet another victim of Anti-BirdFAQs. |
Achromatic posted... KamikazePotato posted...I have absolutely no faith in Dante beating Squirtle. I took him in everything, but yeah. Squirtle is going to have such a ridiculous early vote, Dante will be playing catchup all day. I'd feel much more confident in Dante if it was 24-hours long. The issue is we got a pretty good read on Dante and Squirtle in Round 1. Laharl=Ramza makes Dante clearly above Squirtle, but not by a lot. Huge early lead + rallying + Pokemon fanbase being insane is more than enough to close that gap. Plus, gotta prepare myself for disappointment. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
It
depends on the contest. I won money during the Rivalry Rumble expert
challenge by running the whole gamut (predicting every match correctly
without banking). IIRC, all the winners did the same thing, but that was
such an easier contest. If you have a 100% shot at getting +9 but there's a 50/50 shot at +18 or +/-0, then it's just wiser to take the +9. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif |
I've
never banked either and I've fallen off the leaderboard and am trying
to climb back on (Frog winning here would be another crushing blow
though) In R1 I think it helped me because I think I was right more often than wrong when it came to matches I may have wanted to steer clear from. R2 though I probably would have been better off staying away honestly, but I told myself I'd stick to this no matter what so here we go I guess! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
and for the record, Devin didn't quit, he's just failing badly in round 2 (got -9 on the last match I think) gotta catch Allen quickly, damn it! |
Achromatic posted... KamikazePotato posted...I have absolutely no faith in Dante beating Squirtle. I took him in everything, but yeah. Squirtle is going to have such a ridiculous early vote, Dante will be playing catchup all day. I'd feel much more confident in Dante if it was 24-hours long. Monstrous early votes doesn't mean jack-all if you're facing off against a character who's multiple tiers above you. It only makes or breaks a match when the two characters are approximately equal in strength (and usually only in 12 hour matches). --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
If I wasn't such a lazy bum, I'd tabulate an Expert Bracket where someone played it safe for every debatable match. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg |
1337gamerpr0 posted... and for the record, Devin didn't quit, he's just failing badly in round 2 (got -9 on the last match I think) Bacon went -18 so apparently he's making progress! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
xp1337 posted... 1337gamerpr0 posted...and for the record, Devin didn't quit, he's just failing badly in round 2 (got -9 on the last match I think) I got +18 there moving on up! (haha) |
Oh and once people give up on trying to save Lugia it's gonna look really bad. It's artificially inflated right now. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
1337gamerpr0 posted... and for the record, Devin didn't quit, he's just failing badly Oh geez, that's what I was afraid of! |
Never count Frog out of a close match. I'm not even counting him out for first place! in terms of my favorite character in this poll. I still think Lugia wins it. --- SC2K13 Bracket: Kefka hate hate hate hate hates my bracket! Oracle: Team Frog and Magus |
I
went +18 too, that's the only reason I know for sure what Bacon got. I
went from tied with him to +36. Normally I don't keep track of his
score, but that was a pretty easy one for me to track. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
ChenKenichiFan posted... If I wasn't such a lazy bum, I'd tabulate an Expert Bracket where someone played it safe for every debatable match. Despite my strategy being successful for me so far, I do feel like this bracket would be doing quite well. <_< You'd have to set parameters for playing it safe though. If it's really a toss-up between 2nd and 3rd then yeah it's smarter to bank, but if there's a slight (but not totally safe) favorite it's smarter to hedge, I would think. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://www.wwe.com/f/wysiwyg/image/2013/07/wyatt07062013.gif |
ChenKenichiFan posted... Hell, I'd start to get fearful that Dragonborn could redeem himself and make a go at the handicapped Tifa. I think a lot of people would quickly write this upset off, but there really is a sliver of potential there. Skyrim fans are f***ing nuts and could get a rally off the ground if they really wanted to. Whether they want to or not is the big question. It seems like every subreddit except the LoL one couldn't possibly give less of a damn about GameFAQs. But you never know. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
30-minute
reaction to a Cloud match: he is seriously tanking here, man. Hopefully
he moseys all through Europe and makes this respectable for himself -
can't have him getting upset before he even meets Snake! --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
This
isnt that bad from Cloud, He'll be at or 1 or 2 points less than what
he did on captain falcon in 2k10. He may have dropped a small bit but
its still too early to tell. |
So
what do we think Crono gets on Frog pre-SFF? Because if the answer to
that is 65/35 or better, that semifinal match will be seriously
interesting if Crono gets there. |
ChenKenichiFan posted... This actually ends up being a bad result for Square in general because old Square is effectively done while new Square still have matches they need to go out and win. If Cloud underperforms badly enough that he can't even net 50%, no matter the reason, then I am more confident than ever that Kirby > Seph is in play. Hell, I'd start to get fearful that Dragonborn could redeem himself and make a go at the handicapped Tifa. I can't see Kirby -> Sep at all, but I think Dragonborn probably will beat Tifa. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak |
I still think Yuna > Dragonborn is more likely than Dragonborn > Tifa! Dragonborn just looked so bad! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Cloud has 44% at the half hour mark. Sephiroth had 47% at the half hour mark. I honestly think it'll be pretty obvious that this is a disappointing match for his 2010 level strength if he can't 70/30 Frog... unless Crono goes out and does something crazy like win --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
TheCodeisBosco posted... Whether they want to or not is the big question. It seems like every subreddit except the LoL one couldn't possibly give less of a damn about GameFAQs. But you never know. well, looks like every other subreddit passes the not-loser test |
Frog trying hard to make us believe his 2004 value was legit and that he's back to full strength now! --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
RIP Lugia =( |
Karma Hunter posted... Cloud has 44% at the half hour mark. Sephiroth had 47% at the half hour mark. Crono obviously the beneficiary of a new factor. Golden Era Boost in a world where draven has killed the interest of the board. users everywhere are yearning for the old days and crono has boosted appropriately. he's back at 2003 levels cloud didn't because "FF7 ALWAYS WINS" is still stronger --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Gonna
admit, half my reasoning for picking Frog here was not wanting to side
with the guy going "I have failed". That's just asking for trouble, and
if he loses, I would've felt so dumb. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Lugia will get a dead cat bounce probably. But it has failed. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
KamikazePotato posted... Gonna admit, half my reasoning for picking Frog here was not wanting to side with the guy going "I have failed". That's just asking for trouble, and if he loses, I would've felt so dumb. Well, Lugia's psychic, so he knows what he's talking about, man! |
Oh well, nice try from Lugia. Plenty more Pokemon where that came from. |
Screw
Lugia. Hell, screw Squirtle. You guys don't understand the Pokemon
fanbase. Venusaur / Blastoise / Venustoise would have done way better
than these guys. >_> --- Brawl FC - 1332 8069 6690 http://i.imgur.com/OZ9aS.png |
xp1337 posted... Karma Hunter posted...Cloud has 44% at the half hour mark. Sephiroth had 47% at the half hour mark. Shadow to win his poll CONFIRMED --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Actually,
I didn't realize how close this match was. I'll probably be
aggressively pestering all my friends who like RPGs to vote in this
match if it's close at the end. Revised prediction: Frog by 7 Frog: Keep your guard up! This is no ordinary Pokemon! Regarding expert challenge strategy: I haven't banked or hedged on anything yet, and I've gotten a lot of matches wrong and I'm not close to the leaderboard. I don't regret my decision though. Also, I have Lugia > Frog today, but I'm definitely happy to burn it for a Frog win. --- SC2K13 Bracket: Kefka hate hate hate hate hates my bracket! Oracle: Team Frog and Magus |
I
took Lugia because I basically just tried to nail him down for a % as
the sole Nintendo rep and figured being a Pokemon on top of that he'd be
good for somewhere around 26-30%. Just needed Cloud to hold up his end and there just wouldn't be enough for Frog to work with. Looks like I'm going to overguess Lugia and even if I hadn't, Cloud is too low for the logic I was using, though he should recover a bit it's probably going to end up at Lugia's expense. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Frog, you aren't supposed to take 2nd yet. It's way too early for that. --- http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif |
TheCodeisBosco posted... xp1337 posted...Karma Hunter posted...Cloud has 44% at the half hour mark. Sephiroth had 47% at the half hour mark. I'm still picking Shadow there. Don't ask me why. I know it makes no sense. But my gut says Shadow and I can't convince it otherwise. |
Another Pokemon down. Hordes to go. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
TheOneAboveAll posted... TheCodeisBosco posted...xp1337 posted...Karma Hunter posted...Cloud has 44% at the half hour mark. Sephiroth had 47% at the half hour mark. Shadow got 50% on a P4 character and something named Kat. --- And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that! I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!! |
I
can see Shadow conceivably winning. I can see a LOT conceivably winning
against that terribad Leon, though smart money's on Gordon. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
It's really, really hard not to vote for this quote though. http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5239.jpg I swear, the Sonic Adventure games took melodramatic cheese to the level of high art. I love them so much. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Karma Hunter posted... I can see Shadow conceivably winning. I can see a LOT conceivably winning against that terribad Leon, though smart money's on Gordon. I can't pick Gordon because I can't believe that Big Daddy is a legit high midcarder. That's about my only logic there. |
I can't see Leon being hurt too much by RE6 backlash. All things considered he did have the best section of the RE6 campaign. Granted if he somehow f***ing fails. I'm totally blaming it on the picture. --- http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif |
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