Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1128

#101 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/24/2013 9:06:52 PM | message detail
Man, that Lugia pic is such a damn eyesore though.
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#102 | Qwaar | Posted 8/24/2013 9:07:47 PM | message detail
RockMFR posted...
Pikachu is going to double Crono.


I still have serious doubts about Pikachu beating Crono.
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#103 | xp1337 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:07:47 PM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Lugia is near 60-40ing Frog at the freeze. Prepare yourself, Crono.

Frog putting up 40% on Cloud.

pikachu doomed
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#104 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/24/2013 9:08:11 PM | message detail
It masterfully blends in to the background. If Vincent had gotten a normal pic, Lugia's would easily be the worst of the round.
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#105 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:08:31 PM | message detail
Frog already stalling
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Points: 89/111 Today's Picks: Cloud and Dante
#106 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/24/2013 9:08:36 PM | message detail
Come on Frog, I just got through six hours of tests. You have to redeem this day!
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#107 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/24/2013 9:08:56 PM | message detail
Wow, Frog is looking very strong. Held steady and everything while Cloud gained exclusively from Lugia.
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#108 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 9:09:42 PM | message detail
So what % does Cloud have to finish at for this to be a disappointing showing? He's going to rise a ton from here, but how much is 'a ton'?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#109 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 8/24/2013 9:09:49 PM | message detail
I think Frog is at the advantage with this being a morning match (errr, U.S. morning).
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#110 | pjbasis | Posted 8/24/2013 9:09:59 PM | message detail
Yeah not confident in lugia at all
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#111 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 9:10:06 PM | message detail
I'd be stunned if Frog didn't beat Lugia, even with him being down like this. Lugia's picture is abysmal.

I still think Pika's a stone-cold lock. Heck, even if Dante wins easily I won't change my conviction on that.
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#112 | tgs2 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:10:43 PM | message detail
This says great things about Magus more than Crono to me although Magus barely tripled Jade Curtiss.
#113 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:10:52 PM | message detail
Didn't Samus 70/30 Frog in the 4-ways? Anything much less than what she got would be disappointing, I feel.
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#114 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/24/2013 9:10:55 PM | message detail
I think this is a very good showing from Frog. But I also found Lugia's R1 performance more impressive than most people did.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#115 | Xuxon | Posted 8/24/2013 9:11:14 PM | message detail
From: Achromatic | Posted: 8/25/2013 12:06:02 AM | #095
Kotetsu534 posted...
Lugia is near 60-40ing Frog at the freeze. Prepare yourself, Crono.


I had Lugia beating Frog comfortably. If Lugia can't do that to Frog then Pikachu is royally screwed.

Lugia was facing some pretty weak competition. the only reason it even had a chance here is Square LFF.
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#116 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 9:11:19 PM | message detail
Frog wins the night vote, right? I know CT was never released in Europe and all but he's against a Pokemon.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#117 | CP724 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:11:39 PM | message detail
Wouldnt be suprised if frog is 60-40ing lugia by the end
#118 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 9:12:41 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: Achromatic | Posted: 8/25/2013 12:06:02 AM | #095
Kotetsu534 posted...
Lugia is near 60-40ing Frog at the freeze. Prepare yourself, Crono.


I had Lugia beating Frog comfortably. If Lugia can't do that to Frog then Pikachu is royally screwed.

Lugia was facing some pretty weak competition. the only reason it even had a chance here is Square LFF.


... and clearly Frog's competition was stifling.
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#119 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 8/24/2013 9:12:50 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I'd be stunned if Frog didn't beat Lugia, even with him being down like this. Lugia's picture is abysmal.

I still think Pika's a stone-cold lock. Heck, even if Dante wins easily I won't change my conviction on that.


I won't say stone-cold lock, but I agree that Pikachu should win. The closer that match gets, the more I feel like it's going to be a really close finish one way or the other. I just don't see Pikachu blowing out Crono.
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#120 | Sorozone (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/24/2013 9:13:33 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, go Frog!
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#121 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:13:44 PM | message detail
Lugia is done
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Points: 89/111 Today's Picks: Cloud and Dante
#122 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/24/2013 9:13:57 PM | message detail
Jesus, Frog. This really IS a good result for Crono!
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#123 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 9:14:13 PM | message detail
So uh...

Frog.

Let's ignore his % on Lugia for a moment.

His % on Cloud.

Yikes.
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#124 | Xuxon | Posted 8/24/2013 9:14:21 PM | message detail
how many contests has Frog been in? we know where he stands.
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#125 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/24/2013 9:14:26 PM | message detail
And that's a cut. I think Frog is safe here. If he can cut in the Power Hour, he should win easily overnight.
#126 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 9:14:29 PM | message detail
Julian_Caesar posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I'd be stunned if Frog didn't beat Lugia, even with him being down like this. Lugia's picture is abysmal.

I still think Pika's a stone-cold lock. Heck, even if Dante wins easily I won't change my conviction on that.


I won't say stone-cold lock, but I agree that Pikachu should win. The closer that match gets, the more I feel like it's going to be a really close finish one way or the other. I just don't see Pikachu blowing out Crono.


I kinda do! That's just my personal vibe so I won't bother to try and 'stat it up', but yeah.
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#127 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 8/24/2013 9:14:58 PM | message detail
And here...we...go....
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#128 | Kibago | Posted 8/24/2013 9:14:58 PM | message detail
there we go, Frog.
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#129 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 9:15:03 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
So uh...

Frog.

Let's ignore his % on Lugia for a moment.

His % on Cloud.

Yikes.


Let's look at it again when the match ends. Cloud is gonna kill Europe.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#130 | nkansas13 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:15:18 PM | message detail
CT has looked really good all contest. Even with the pic advantage, Pikachu's going to have a difficult time based on these results.
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#131 | xp1337 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:15:22 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Jesus, Frog. This really IS a good result for Crono!

man i was kidding before

but

wow

also argh lugia but i never saw frog doing this well so you're almost off the hook
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#132 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/24/2013 9:15:55 PM | message detail
This is the fourth straight match in a row where I'm really glad I played it safe with Expert picks. I'm within striking distance of the leaderboard and feel I can easily find myself in contention if Kirby > Sephiroth plays out. Biding one's time and betting big on the matches you can really feel in your gut is such a better strategy than always risking it (and risking it more and more when you fall behind). Too bad I don't have the discipline to always play this way.
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#133 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/24/2013 9:16:05 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
104----1------------0.00
103----0------------0.00
102----0------------0.00
101----2------------0.00
100----3------------33.33
99------8------------0.00
98------34----------2.94
97------38----------2.63
96------42----------7.14
95------74----------5.41
94------70----------12.86
93------102--------9.80
92------90----------15.56
91------107--------17.76
90------117--------23.08
89------153--------21.57
88------190--------22.63
87------205--------26.83
86------254--------26.77
85------318--------33.02
84------348--------28.16
83------421--------24.70
82------487--------26.90
81------518--------27.80
80------534--------24.72
79------571--------26.62
78------590--------25.93
77------645--------26.98
76------641--------23.87
75------570--------24.91
74------608--------22.04
73------561--------23.53
72------538--------25.09
71------464--------21.77
70------425--------18.82
69------439--------19.36
68------401--------24.94
67------389--------19.02
66------351--------19.09
65------281--------17.79
64------293--------21.50
63------253--------17.39
62------245--------21.63
61------223--------15.25
60------231--------17.32
59------183--------13.11
58------184--------16.85
57------200--------15.00
56------146--------23.29
55------155--------19.35
54------153--------16.34
53------128--------20.31
52------104--------20.19
51------139--------20.14
50------88----------20.45
49------84----------26.19
48------75----------13.33
47------84----------13.10
46------74----------12.16
45------79----------17.72
44------54----------14.81
43------63----------12.70
42------36----------13.89
41------47----------12.77
40------45----------13.33
39------34----------8.82
38------28----------25.00
37------24----------25.00
36------25----------16.00
35------18----------5.56
34------22----------18.18
33------21----------33.33
32------15----------13.33
31------13----------7.69
30------10----------10.00
29------9------------11.11
28------6------------16.67
...
26------2------------50.00
...
19------2------------50.00
...
2--------3------------33.33

Omitted scores got it wrong

We knew this was coming after Kefka wrecked us in Round 2. The last -10 (104 points) falls. We didn't have any -11s or -12s to begin with. Prediction percentage rises as you go down and finally reached the double digits consistantly at -22 (92 points). The casuals still beat us with prediction percentages in the 20s. A 2 bracket (as in 2 points) gets the match right.

7 people fell off the Top 49. transience, Vortex268, Were_Tiger, Xcarvenger, YasumiWatahashi, Yleffl and Achromatic did not have Kefka winning.

40 people got it wrong and survived. Current first place SuorGenoveffa, former second place Billy_Gates, former third place ChenKenichiFan, CarveyFAQs, Karma_Hunter, greengravy294, InvisibleOmega, JaySolano, KamikazePotato, KingLionel, Pondos, th3l3fty, wakeuptogashi, Ambertwo, Astro1446, Board8_BOP, Cipher_Miror_B, dimi161, Djungelurban, Doooooooooougie, ecksgem, Eikei, foxhead84, Gandalfsam, Greenmonkey034, iGenesis, KCGemini, Kumatora, Leebo86, LinkMarioSamus, Link_Fanboy, Luis_Sera89, mathmagus37, NewerShadow, Pinkish_Hue, Safer_777, scaryice, scolletti105, strikerkid and TeamMagmaElite also did not have Kefka winning the match.

2 people on the Top 49 got it right. Current second place EdBellis and current fifth place Flock_Masta_P knew that Kefka was going to screw us over twice.
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#134 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 9:16:45 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Achromatic posted...
So uh...

Frog.

Let's ignore his % on Lugia for a moment.

His % on Cloud.

Yikes.


Let's look at it again when the match ends. Cloud is gonna kill Europe.


This logic you are employing is disturbing.

Mostly because it is correct.
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!
#135 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 8/24/2013 9:17:16 PM | message detail
In an alternate universe, Frog > Cloud and Board 8 implodes with glee. The "FrogWagon" builds up steam and flattens Draven in an epic 200,000 vote match in the final.

I need to stay away from the Nerds before bedtime @_@
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
#136 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 9:18:01 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
This is the fourth straight match in a row where I'm really glad I played it safe with Expert picks. I'm within striking distance of the leaderboard and feel I can easily find myself in contention if Kirby > Sephiroth plays out. Biding one's time and betting big on the matches you can really feel in your gut is such a better strategy than always risking it (and risking it more and more when you fall behind). Too bad I don't have the discipline to always play this way.


I'm not sure I agree with this. I Go Big Or Go Home in every match and I'm currently in the Top 10. It can and probably will bite me in the ass soon enough, but I feel like it's your only option if you actually want to win money. Just getting onto the leaderboard isn't enough - when there's a fairly large disparity between people. I mean, the #1 guy is like 3-4 matches ahead of me. Not gonna close that gap by banking!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#137 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 8/24/2013 9:18:12 PM | message detail
Can't bear to see Cloud with a percent as low as 42... fast-forward to the TDZ please!
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#138 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/24/2013 9:18:47 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Score-Brackets-% Right
104----1------------0.00
103----0------------0.00
102----0------------0.00
101----2------------0.00
100----3------------33.33
99------8------------0.00
98------34----------2.94
97------38----------2.63
96------42----------7.14
95------74----------5.41
94------70----------12.86
93------102--------9.80
92------90----------15.56
91------107--------17.76
90------117--------23.08
89------153--------21.57
88------190--------22.63
87------205--------26.83
86------254--------26.77
85------318--------33.02
84------348--------28.16
83------421--------24.70
82------487--------26.90
81------518--------27.80
80------534--------24.72
79------571--------26.62
78------590--------25.93
77------645--------26.98
76------641--------23.87
75------570--------24.91
74------608--------22.04
73------561--------23.53
72------538--------25.09
71------464--------21.77
70------425--------18.82
69------439--------19.36
68------401--------24.94
67------389--------19.02
66------351--------19.09
65------281--------17.79
64------293--------21.50
63------253--------17.39
62------245--------21.63
61------223--------15.25
60------231--------17.32
59------183--------13.11
58------184--------16.85
57------200--------15.00
56------146--------23.29
55------155--------19.35
54------153--------16.34
53------128--------20.31
52------104--------20.19
51------139--------20.14
50------88----------20.45
49------84----------26.19
48------75----------13.33
47------84----------13.10
46------74----------12.16
45------79----------17.72
44------54----------14.81
43------63----------12.70
42------36----------13.89
41------47----------12.77
40------45----------13.33
39------34----------8.82
38------28----------25.00
37------24----------25.00
36------25----------16.00
35------18----------5.56
34------22----------18.18
33------21----------33.33
32------15----------13.33
31------13----------7.69
30------10----------10.00
29------9------------11.11
28------6------------16.67
...
26------2------------50.00
...
19------2------------50.00
...
2--------3------------33.33

Omitted scores got it wrong

We knew this was coming after Kefka wrecked us in Round 2. The last -10 (104 points) falls. We didn't have any -11s or -12s to begin with. Prediction percentage rises as you go down and finally reached the double digits consistantly at -22 (92 points). The casuals still beat us with prediction percentages in the 20s. A 2 bracket (as in 2 points) gets the match right.

7 people fell off the Top 49. transience, Vortex268, Were_Tiger, Xcarvenger, YasumiWatahashi, Yleffl and Achromatic did not have Kefka winning.

40 people got it wrong and survived. Current first place SuorGenoveffa, former second place Billy_Gates, former third place ChenKenichiFan, CarveyFAQs, Karma_Hunter, greengravy294, InvisibleOmega, JaySolano, KamikazePotato, KingLionel, Pondos, th3l3fty, wakeuptogashi, Ambertwo, Astro1446, Board8_BOP, Cipher_Miror_B, dimi161, Djungelurban, Doooooooooougie, ecksgem, Eikei, foxhead84, Gandalfsam, Greenmonkey034, iGenesis, KCGemini, Kumatora, Leebo86, LinkMarioSamus, Link_Fanboy, Luis_Sera89, mathmagus37, NewerShadow, Pinkish_Hue, Safer_777, scaryice, scolletti105, strikerkid and TeamMagmaElite also did not have Kefka winning the match.

2 people on the Top 49 got it right. Current second place EdBellis and current fifth place Flock_Masta_P knew that Kefka was going to screw us over twice.


That stings.
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#139 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 9:18:51 PM | message detail
Did Cloud just go down
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#140 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/24/2013 9:18:54 PM | message detail
Ed Bellis is in 2nd place.

What is this world we live in?
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#141 | Sorozone (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/24/2013 9:20:05 PM | message detail | (edited)
Oh yeah Cloud going down .04%
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#142 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 9:19:46 PM | message detail
Ed Bellis rocking the world.

Also goodbye leaderboard =(.

Hopefully will be back when Dante beats that dum blue ball.
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#143 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/24/2013 9:20:32 PM | message detail
I have a feeling we're going to get people spinning this in favor of Kirby > Seph pretty soon.

I know it's the power hour, but Cloud is not looking good here. Like, at all.
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#144 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 8/24/2013 9:20:54 PM | message detail
Seph > Cloud confirmed
#145 | tgs2 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:20:59 PM | message detail
At this rate it won't matter who makes it from Crono's division with how awful Cloud is doing right now.
#146 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/24/2013 9:21:01 PM | message detail
If you went Cloud > Bank > Bank and he went with Cloud > Wrong > Wrong, you've already cut his lead by over a third.
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#147 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/24/2013 9:21:02 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
This is the fourth straight match in a row where I'm really glad I played it safe with Expert picks. I'm within striking distance of the leaderboard and feel I can easily find myself in contention if Kirby > Sephiroth plays out. Biding one's time and betting big on the matches you can really feel in your gut is such a better strategy than always risking it (and risking it more and more when you fall behind). Too bad I don't have the discipline to always play this way.


I'm not sure I agree with this. I Go Big Or Go Home in every match and I'm currently in the Top 10. It can and probably will bite me in the ass soon enough, but I feel like it's your only option if you actually want to win money. Just getting onto the leaderboard isn't enough - when there's a fairly large disparity between people. I mean, the #1 guy is like 3-4 matches ahead of me. Not gonna close that gap by banking!


Unless you get lucky and they net a -18 match or two :P
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#148 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 9:21:17 PM | message detail
Okay so let's spin this in cloud's favor.

Frog has returned to form and Lugia is as strong as Pikachu.

There we go, good result Cloud.
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!
#149 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 9:21:28 PM | message detail
Cloud's antivotes seem to be sticking around longer much like Sephiroth's did in his last match. Based on that Cloud should finish at around 50% - but I expect more from him because Frog is going to collapse once the TDZ hits and Lugia is going to fall apart more severely than usual because the picture's influence will become more pronounced as the match goes on.
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#150 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 9:21:30 PM | message detail
I have absolutely no faith in Dante beating Squirtle. I took him in everything, but yeah. Squirtle is going to have such a ridiculous early vote, Dante will be playing catchup all day. I'd feel much more confident in Dante if it was 24-hours long.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.