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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1128
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I have nothing clever to say. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif |
Well, Altair's breached the 50-vote barrier, at least. Really hope he overtakes Lara in the next few hours! --- When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore |
i hope there's a sub 10 vote lead at the final update. Got to have some drama --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
3.5 hours. 50 votes. One drunk Altair. Can he do it? --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Glad to see this won't be just another second/third place 100 vote stall war... --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Drunk Altair hypothesis explains so much. --- When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore |
Here it comes --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Have more booze altair --- And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that! I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!! |
Anyone know what the lead was maxed at? --- Hey I just met you, and this is crazy, but you have died of dysentery. |
Altair has sworn off the booze. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
No he hasn'tJust outclassed. --- And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that! I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!! |
So
many of these second/third place matches have been down to the wire. I
might finally make it onto the leaderboard for a day (12 hours, rather)
if Altair can pull through. Having said that, I've probably just
doomed him... --- http://i490.photobucket.com/albums/rr263/crypto_magnum/Polycosm_sig.jpg |
Hey, I want to break the Top 10 and I need an Altair win for that. Don't go jinx it now. --- When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore |
1 vote, sigh --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
Alcoholic Anonymous is working! --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Lead change! --- *shrug* |
yay --- ... |
My Lara>Altair >Kefka pick just got healthier >_> --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/330/958/a5b.gif |
So
if you're gaining on an opponent you're already ahead of and you're
cutting an opponent you're behind; is the lead change update a cut or a
gain? --- *shrug* |
NO LARA --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
Altair wait until we forgot about him, then strikes like a thief in the night --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (is also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif |
Goddamn it KoolAid. I have enough trouble with KH and Yo. Not you too... --- *shrug* |
Drink drink drink --- And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that! I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!! |
Match XCIV: (1) Cloud Strife vs. (13) Frog vs. (19) Lugia Previous Round Cloud Strife 66.06% Prinny 23.61% Senator Steven Armstrong 10.33% Frog 50.15% Viewtiful Joe 25.65% Handsome Jack 24.20% Lugia 59.44% Sly Cooper 28.59% Francis York Morgan 11.97% Analysis All three characters caused blowouts, but they were against opponents of varying strengths. While Final Fantasy VII has not looked great this round Cloud should have no issue winning this match. Even with a drop in strength he is still one of the strongest characters in the bracket and will likely be pushing one of the highest percentages of the round. While Lugia posted one of the biggest blowouts of the round it was also against one of the weakest pair of characters in the contest. Sly Cooper was fairly weak in 2004 and I doubt he is any better today. It was unlikely that Lugia was going to be as strong as the top Pokemon, while people liked the second generation it just does not compare with the original in terms of pure contest strength. In a normal match I would give Frog the advantage over Lugia, but with Cloud in the poll things could be tricky to predict. Overall Chrono Trigger characters have looked okay, but we do not have much information on them to make a proper conclusion. While old and new Square rarely seems to SFF each other LFF could be a problem. I am not sure why so many people are confident in Lugia. Using a constant Sly Cooper places Lugia quite far back from a 2010 Frog and the vote total for that match is terrible, especially considering Pokemon tends to bring in the votes which only adds to Lugias likely weakness. It is still possible for Frog to lose this should Cloud decide to SFF him and Chrono Trigger takes another drop in strength, but I do not see it happening. charmander6000s Bracket: Cloud Strife > Frog and Lugia charmander6000s Prediction: Cloud Strife 54.45%, Frog 26.76%, Lugia 18.79% --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 86/105 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ryu Hayabusa |
*comes back to see altair ahead* yay *lara is cutting* oh god --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
watch Cloud fail to break 50% . I have zero confidence in FF7 right now. --- ... |
If
Cloud fails to break 50%, I'd assume that Lugia would be the big
overperformer, which means I'll be terrified of the Squirtle > Cloud
possibility next round. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif |
Had Lugia 2nd for quite some time, but changed to Frog > Lugia last hour. I hope I don't regret it. |
Squirtle isn't making it past Dante --- And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that! I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!! |
Achromatic posted... Squirtle isn't making it past Dante Yes he is. |
Squirtle has absolutely no reason (Statistically) to beat Dante, which means he will. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I
would have thought a strong Cloud performance would be better for
Lugia, since it would mean him taking as much of Frog's percentage as he
possibly can. |
spooky96 posted... Had Lugia 2nd for quite some time, but changed to Frog > Lugia last hour. I hope I don't regret it. Same here. I am 99% sure I will regret it but **** pokemon --- ... |
KamikazePotato posted... Squirtle has absolutely no reason (Statistically) to beat Dante, which means he will. Well, as you know, stats aren't everything. Though won't be surprised if Dante stomps Squirtle either, lol. |
I
want to see Frog do well, but I'm much too scared to take him as second
in my expert pick after what Mewtwo just did to Vincent. --- http://i490.photobucket.com/albums/rr263/crypto_magnum/Polycosm_sig.jpg |
Polycosm posted... I want to see Frog do well, but I'm much too scared to take him as second in my expert pick after what Mewtwo just did to Vincent. Yeah, it's kind of a shame that Draven's rally has been the biggest story of this round. Mewtwo crushing Vincent was a very, very important result in terms of overall contest trends. No way in hell Vincent would have lost that match 3-4 years ago. --- Every day the rest of your life is changed forever. |
KamikazePotato posted... Squirtle has absolutely no reason (Statistically) to beat Dante, which means he will. I don't know about that. Laharl and Ramza are almost identical in strength, and we have no way of measuring Raz against JC Denton. Overall, the performances that Dante and Squirtle put up only gives a slight edge to Dante before we figure pictures and rallies into the equation. And the fact that it's a day match. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Day
Dante was considerably more impressive to me than Night Squirtle. It
depends what game Day Squirtle brings to the table. Not feeling terribly
great about Dante as Squirtle's picture is huge/colorful/in-your-face
while Dante's is middle of the road (not the ideal DMC3 pic that yo
submitted, but at least it's not DMC2 or a Donte sabotage), plus Pokemon
have yet to show weakness (...well, they will show incredible weakness
tonight, but it won't count). Dude's got a decent chance though, as opposed to Crono who I'm considering a stone-cold lock to lose to Pika personally. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Admittedly,
I'm still debating banking on Dante's match, just in case. But I know
that if Squirtle ends up winning, I'm going to kick myself for it. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Don't completely bank. Keep Zidane last. >_> |
Dante/Squirtle is a match I'm just not going to be happy with. Bracket has Dante, I like Dante more R1 and yet I feel like I'm going to side with Squirtle when it comes down to it. I'm going to be mad if I'm wrong no matter who I pick there! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Well
obviously Pokemon will have the edge if it's close because people will
spend all day rallying for a random Pokemon if they have to. But that's
just a part of their intrinsic strength these days. I'm just not sure if
Squirtle has what it takes to make it close. Assuming Ramza = Laharl,
Dante gets 53.5% on Squirtle. Now, Squirtle should be able to make up some of that in a day match... but that's a bit deceptive, because Ramza's night vote is almost as bad as Squirtle's because FFT was never released in Europe. He wouldn't have dropped very much in percentage relative to what he finished with in a 24 hour match. That makes it harder - if Dante's worth 52%+ on Squirtle rallies aren't gonna be enough. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Oh,
and obviously if Ramza = Laharl doesn't hold true the whole thing's a
crapshoot. Laharl and his series are far more relevant these days
(evidenced by how Laharl gave him the fight of his life when once upon a
time Ramza was breaking mid-40s on Kirby). But Ramza could have also
increased due to the site shift that's benefited FF4/FF6/FF9/etc. If
either one is significantly weaker compared to the other that makes the
character that beat them a heavy underdog. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
It's silly because all logic points towards Laharl > Ramza but I think I'd take Ramza in that match if it came down to it. I'm taking Squirtle in the Dante match but with like zero confidence at all. Certainly less than pre-contest anyway. I think having another Pokemon in the match directly before him could hurt him too. --- Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time |
Gah, can't believe Lara has lost this one. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak |
If
Laharl and Ramza are the same strength they were in 2010, then Laharl
wins 53/47. But, as stated, there's no telling how those numbers would
end up with the lower votals this contest. And you've gotta figure that RBY pokemon are going to be benefiting like hell from the votal shift as well. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
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