Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1127

#401 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 11:19:20 AM | message detail
Wait what? I thought lugia was the favorite here. Spread Betting has it as 27-21 for Lugia

I was quite surprised about that, maybe he is the favourite, I just don't see it happening.
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#402 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/24/2013 11:21:44 AM | message detail
Lugia's picture is atrocious. I'm taking a shot in the dark here, but I'm guessing that non-Gen 1 Pokemon are more susceptible to things like crummy pictures because they simply aren't as recognizable. Of course, even a hobbled Lugia could be enough to beat a Frog who has to deal with a Cloud.
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#403 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 11:23:45 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Old square tends to avoid getting SFF by new Square (and vice versa)

If it happens it won't be a total crushing, but I don't have much faith in Lugia


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3306

Cloud is good at SFFing all Square.
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#404 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 11:29:17 AM | message detail | (edited)
That's not SFF, that's LPF. SFF implies that Cloud would have beaten Link or come damn close to it.

Edit: This is what happened to Crono: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2925

It doesn't mean Link, Cloud, or L-Block SFFed Snake.
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#405 | creativename | Posted 8/24/2013 11:30:17 AM | message detail
Altair still refusing to give up. Trends may favor him later too. Glad I no-picked 2nd.

I wonder who the expert fave for 2nd is? Or maybe it's split evenly.
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#406 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/24/2013 11:30:33 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Old square tends to avoid getting SFF by new Square (and vice versa)

If it happens it won't be a total crushing, but I don't have much faith in Lugia


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3306

Cloud is good at SFFing all Square.


Last Place Factor in a finals match where something interesting was actually happening.
Hell, Solid Snake barely did any better on Cloud in 2007 than Crono did there.
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#407 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 11:35:29 AM | message detail
I do think Cloud can potentially SFF Frog, BTW - Crono getting LPF'd doesn't mean he wouldn't get a touch of SFF normally, and the strength difference between Cloud and Frog is much greater than Cloud and Crono.

But Cloud couldn't score any noticeable SFF on Kefka back in 2007. So I'm a bit skeptical.
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#408 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 11:36:21 AM | message detail | (edited)
Okay well I don't think there are any polls with Cloud and old school Square.

Guess we'll see, although your point about old and new not usually sffing is valid.

Oh right Kefka.
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#409 | Sorozone | Posted 8/24/2013 11:42:19 AM | message detail
Frog has the all important Toriyama art vote.
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#410 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 11:42:55 AM | message detail
I really,really,really don't believe in Lugia...she will finish last
I don't recall getting a Pokemon match wrong ever since 2007 or something and the only reason I got Vincent>Mewtwo and Crono>Pikachu is for a win-win situation

Lugia is...not great,really. The only reason it was nominated is to have a gen 2 represention
The second gen doesn't really got a lot of popular Pokemon...not even with people that stopped playing Pokemon after GSC
I would consider the starters to be the stronger (Totodile>Cyndaquil>Chikoria) and then Umbreon...then Lugia
After it..probably Pichu (SSBM votes) and then a HUGE gap,followed by fan-favorites such as Ampharos,Scizor etc...but they would be weaker than Lucario

Come to think of it..an Eeveelution could really wreck havoc..I would consider Vaporeon and Jolteon to be stronger than Mewtwo
And hell...it might be possible to rally for them! in..Devianart...*gulp*
#411 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/24/2013 11:48:05 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I really,really,really don't believe in Lugia...she will finish last
I don't recall getting a Pokemon match wrong ever since 2007 or something and the only reason I got Vincent>Mewtwo and Crono>Pikachu is for a win-win situation

Lugia is...not great,really. The only reason it was nominated is to have a gen 2 represention
The second gen doesn't really got a lot of popular Pokemon...not even with people that stopped playing Pokemon after GSC
I would consider the starters to be the stronger (Totodile>Cyndaquil>Chikoria) and then Umbreon...then Lugia
After it..probably Pichu (SSBM votes) and then a HUGE gap,followed by fan-favorites such as Ampharos,Scizor etc...but they would be weaker than Lucario

Come to think of it..an Eeveelution could really wreck havoc..I would consider Vaporeon and Jolteon to be stronger than Mewtwo
And hell...it might be possible to rally for them! in..Devianart...*gulp*


Actually, an Eevee evolution (or Eevee itself) is one I'd like to see in a contest.
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#412 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/24/2013 11:49:01 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
But Cloud couldn't score any noticeable SFF on Kefka back in 2007. So I'm a bit skeptical.


Kefka's matches never make sense ;)
#413 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/24/2013 12:10:00 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1346
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2897

If Crono can SFF Kefka easily and Cloud has trouble SFFing Kefka at all, I'm not taking Cloud to SFF Crono even 1%.
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#414 | banananor | Posted 8/24/2013 12:14:12 PM | message detail
i feel like lugia is on the cartridge of the best-selling pokemon game- that should put it over some of the starters, at least
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#415 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 12:18:38 PM | message detail
I don't know Kefka only getting 13% of the vote looks like some sff to me. I mean I get it is hard to tell because of KEFKA and all of that but yeah, four ways are kind of crazy.

Basically who knows. We'll see!
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#416 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 12:19:40 PM | message detail
Kefka got 19.09% on Cloud in that match, I guess that is slight SFF.
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#417 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 12:25:27 PM | message detail
Hm
http://stattit.com/subreddits/by_subscribers/
/r/gaming with crazy amount of 3,530,371 subscribers,which is 10 times more than LoL
But...this is a neutral place,they can rally Draven just as much as any other character if not more
/r/Games got 347,419,which is like LoL but I have no idea how it differs from gaming? (maybe not video games,but regular games? )
Then there is LoL in the 40th place...and the next video game entry is Pokemon,at 51
Dota 2 at 146 (useful for anti votes)
And then /r/Zelda at 180...but we are talking about being 3 times less than Pokemon subreddit

Interesting fact-Minecraft subreddit is even more popular than LoL in terms of subscribers,but LoL has 10 times the amount of online users
#418 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 12:27:08 PM | message detail
Even though it is neutral Link would easily get more support than Draven, heck I would bet Shepard would too.
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#419 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/24/2013 12:32:54 PM | message detail
hey hey, way to suck ass Altair
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#420 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 12:35:37 PM | message detail
Altair is really flubbing this day vote so far. He still has time to make a match of it but man.
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#421 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/24/2013 12:39:11 PM | message detail
Kefka has held up after the power hour better than Lara!

Way to go Kefka
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#422 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 12:42:25 PM | message detail | (edited)
Oh, wait, it's the weekend. Altair is screwed.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#423 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/24/2013 12:50:55 PM | message detail | (edited)
Honestly, I expected Kefka to do a little better here. His match pic is gone of the best in years, especially when you factor in that quote. Plus, his R1 performance was pretty awe-inspiring.
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#424 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 12:51:40 PM | message detail
Kefka was not SFFed in 2007 based on his R1 and R2 showings - he got almost the exact same percentage on Marcus Fenix in both rounds. Unless you want to say that Fenix was SFFed as well somehow.
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#425 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 12:52:54 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Maybe 2010 Ratchet was a fluke, he was crushed pretty badly by Ryu/Ken

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4520

Not that he should have done better because Ryu/Ken is awesome.


As much as I love the guy, Nefarious is about as bad of an anchor as you can get, honestly. He'd be one of the weakest characters we've ever seen if he ever got in.
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#426 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/24/2013 12:53:44 PM | message detail
nominate Nefarious/Quark for sub-chester levels

better yet, Nefarious/Laaaaaaaawreeeeeeeeence
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#427 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 12:54:17 PM | message detail
Also, just remember if Frog/Lugia is close, The Clutch (tm) will save Frog.
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#428 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 12:54:56 PM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
nominate Nefarious/Quark for sub-chester levels

better yet, Nefarious/Laaaaaaaawreeeeeeeeence


Nefarious/Lawrence for Quote Factor Boost with "LAWRENCE! Whose butt is this?!"
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#429 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/24/2013 12:56:58 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1346
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2897

If Crono can SFF Kefka easily and Cloud has trouble SFFing Kefka at all, I'm not taking Cloud to SFF Crono even 1%.


You guys never fail to come up with weird conclusions.
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#430 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 1:01:04 PM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
nominate Nefarious/Quark for sub-chester levels

better yet, Nefarious/Laaaaaaaawreeeeeeeeence


I wonder how Death=Adder would do!
#431 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/24/2013 1:03:14 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Kefka got 19.09% on Cloud in that match, I guess that is slight SFF.

It's possible, but he stayed fairly consistent with what he got on Marcus Fenix the match before.
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#432 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 1:04:04 PM | message detail
If you think Altair is roughly equal to Ryu Hayabusa, then this match lines up with Kefka's R1 when taking into account Zack LFF.
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#433 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 1:08:32 PM | message detail
Altair with two big cuts in a row.
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#434 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 1:09:37 PM | message detail
And remember, Cloud and Kefka are a lot more related than Cloud and Crono. Not only are they from the same series, Cloud's game was coming right off of Kefka's game in that series. And the strength difference between Cloud 2k7 and Kefka 2k7 was a chasm, meaning it should have been beyond easy to score SFF on him.

Tonight should say something conclusive about it too, though. Frog losing to that Lugia would pretty easily indicate SFF.
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#435 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 1:11:31 PM | message detail
...incidentally, how do people think Crono/Kefka goes nowadays?
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#436 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 1:14:36 PM | message detail
Using 2010 Squall = 2010 Crono, it'd be expected to go 63/37.

Although I suppose you're asking how much SFF do I think Crono'd land on him? I dunno. In 2005, it was a 70/30 split (fairly easy to derive since Crono beat Vercetti fresh off of beating Kefka the round before), and it probably wasn't that different indirectly in 2003 or 2004. So there's no way he quadruples him like he did in 2003. I wouldn't be surprised if he hit 65-70% though.
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#437 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 1:20:22 PM | message detail
Well, Kefka looks significantly stronger to me and Crono is likely even weaker. It's unlikely, but possible Kefka's up well into the 40s on him pre-SFF, and once you start growing that close in strength it's a lot harder to SFF people.
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#438 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 1:23:47 PM | message detail
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Kefka could manage 40% indirectly now.

So who's the strongest character we take Kefka to beat now?

Leon Kennedy? Dante? Zelda? Sora? Yoshi?
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#439 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 1:23:52 PM | message detail
Can someone remind me why everyone always says Squall = Crono for me because people say that a lot.
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#440 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 1:25:15 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
Can someone remind me why everyone always says Squall = Crono for me because people say that a lot.


Because despite your silly thinking that Crono would SFF Squall into the ground (Hint: He wouldn't), it's been a relatively safe assumption for a while since Vincent 2005 >= 2005 Squall and 2007-2008 Vincent = 2007-2008 Crono.

If anything, saying Crono's equal to Squall is giving him a lot of credit still.
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#441 | ZFS | Posted 8/24/2013 1:25:15 PM | message detail
Leon/Kefka seems like it would be a nice match.
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#442 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 1:25:50 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Kefka could manage 40% indirectly now.

So who's the strongest character we take Kefka to beat now?

Leon Kennedy? Dante? Zelda? Sora? Yoshi?


Wait
Kefka>GlaDOS 100%?
#443 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 1:26:05 PM | message detail
Squall is traditionally the strongest non-Noble Nine character, his loss to Vincent pre-KH2 notwithstanding. I use that estimate with the assumption that there's hopefully minimal difference between weakest Noble Niner and the strongest non-Noble.
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#444 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 1:26:16 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'd take Kefka > GlaDOS without thinking.
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#445 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 1:26:19 PM | message detail
Squall = Vincent
Crono = Vincent

Squall = Crono, at least that's what I feel is everyone's train of thought.
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#446 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 1:27:34 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Achromatic posted...
Can someone remind me why everyone always says Squall = Crono for me because people say that a lot.


Because despite your silly thinking that Crono would SFF Squall into the ground (Hint: He wouldn't), it's been a relatively safe assumption for a while since Vincent 2005 >= 2005 Squall and 2007-2008 Vincent = 2007-2008 Crono.

If anything, saying Crono's equal to Squall is giving him a lot of credit still.


To hell with my crazy SFF ideas (I am a crazy person, we've all established this with some of my predictions) but I think using a combo of different years, different formats, etc is pretty much reaching.

Then again a lot of people did some crazy stuff in terms of underestimating the tail end of the noble nine for years, I guess this shouldn't surprise me.
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#447 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 1:27:34 PM | message detail
And yeah, Crono beating Squall these days would be quite the accomplishment. I don't think Pikachu would be the Guru favorite if people unanimously thought Crono could beat Squall.
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#448 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/24/2013 1:28:17 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Kefka could manage 40% indirectly now.

So who's the strongest character we take Kefka to beat now?

Leon Kennedy? Dante? Zelda? Sora? Yoshi?


he wouldn't beat any of those characters 1v1, unless Dante had a DmC pick..then he may win.
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#449 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/24/2013 1:29:11 PM | message detail
kefka is considerably stronger now, while i wouldn't take him over perennial upper-midcarders like Ryu/Dante/Yoshi, i would take him to score 40-41% on Crono INDIRECTLY.
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#450 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 1:30:14 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
but I think using a combo of different years, different formats, etc is pretty much reaching.


There's not as much extreme variation in formats as people think, as long as you don't have another entity in the match screwing up the results (and the fact that Vincent/Crono went pretty much exactly the same way two straight years indicates that there wasn't), and it's a difference of 2-3 years.

I mean, I guess we could say Squall was essentially equal to Brawl hyped Sonic in 2007, and he beat the Auron who smashed Sonic in 2008.

Squall is on the tier right below Noble Nine, and I'm not sure why you seem to think he isn't. He's validated his strength pretty much every year.
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