Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1127

#351 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:37:07 AM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
hylianknight3 posted...
Greyfeld posted...
One of these freaking days, I'm going to grow a pair of balls and stop letting the contest crew sway my expert pick. This is the second time this round I've let them change my 2nd/3rd place, and ended up getting screwed by it.


Yeah. Obviously, I owe those guys big time for helping me make sense out of some of these matches. I don't know why I keep going against my gut, though, as that pretty much never works.


My problem is, I didn't really have a gut pick. I just thought that Lara had all the intangibles going in her favor. Then the crew sweepingly said, "Yeah, Altair over Lara, no contest." I should have known not to listen to that crap when they said the same thing about Crash>Elizabeth.


Not that i wanna defend the crew but Altair has a chance of making a comeback, stop whining already.
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#352 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/24/2013 9:37:24 AM | message detail
Okay, that update however, is a little bit scary.
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#353 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:37:26 AM | message detail
Why is Lara so bad
How many new games she needs to have to return to her glory
How bigger boobs does she need
Just transform her into a Tifa or something I don't want to lose more expert points for this
#354 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:39:13 AM | message detail
Why is Lara so bad
How many new games she needs to have to return to her glory
How bigger boobs does she need
Just transform her into a Tifa or something I don't want to lose more expert points for this


Lara looks fine, especially if Kefka is stronger now.
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#355 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 9:42:38 AM | message detail
Yep, knew this pick wasn't gonna work. Though maybe Altair can at least not come in friggin' last <_<
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#356 | spooky96 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:42:43 AM | message detail
What do you guys think? Will Lara hold on the 2nd spot?
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#357 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 9:42:55 AM | message detail
I'm not sure what the people were expecting Altair in Round 1 to do. He beat Ratchet a lot worse than the 2010 stats indicated he would, in a year where the old mascots were doing well, and doubled a character who's probably going to be equivalent to Lloyd Irving.

ALSO, if these trends continue, then Altair is going to 1. Get 2nd anyway 2. Look respectable against a Kefka that smacked around Zack Fair and Ryu Hayabusa. So it's fine, anyway.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#358 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/24/2013 9:43:52 AM | message detail
JustForFun1988 posted...
Greyfeld posted...
hylianknight3 posted...
Greyfeld posted...
One of these freaking days, I'm going to grow a pair of balls and stop letting the contest crew sway my expert pick. This is the second time this round I've let them change my 2nd/3rd place, and ended up getting screwed by it.


Yeah. Obviously, I owe those guys big time for helping me make sense out of some of these matches. I don't know why I keep going against my gut, though, as that pretty much never works.


My problem is, I didn't really have a gut pick. I just thought that Lara had all the intangibles going in her favor. Then the crew sweepingly said, "Yeah, Altair over Lara, no contest." I should have known not to listen to that crap when they said the same thing about Crash>Elizabeth.


Not that i wanna defend the crew but Altair has a chance of making a comeback, stop whining already.


Shush, you. It's my Expert, and I'll cry if I want to. :P
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#359 | LOLContests | Posted 8/24/2013 9:54:30 AM | message detail
I just dont' get why Ratchet is not horrible all of a sudden. I just assumed that 2010 was kind of a fluke. He hasn't been relevant in years, and he did horrible back when he was. 2007/2008 can be blamed on OLPF, but 2003/2004 speak for themselves.
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#360 | ZFS | Posted 8/24/2013 9:55:17 AM | message detail
It took a while but GameFAQs is finally starting to come around on FFVI characters.
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#361 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:56:26 AM | message detail
Ratchet's PS3 releases, especially A Crack in Time, were very well reviewed actually, so he got a fair amount of coverage during the first half or so of this gen.
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#362 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/24/2013 9:57:10 AM | message detail | (edited)
KamikazePotato posted...
I'm not sure what the people were expecting Altair in Round 1 to do. He beat Ratchet a lot worse than the 2010 stats indicated he would


I don't think there are any indications of how Altair would do on Ratchet using 2010 stats, actually. Considering possible SFF against Zelda and the definite SFF against Sonic, the best you can take it to is Altair getting on Sonic about the same as Ratchet would get on Zelda. So Altair getting 57.5% on Ratchet in 2010 would be like Sonic getting 57.5% on Zelda in 2010.

Which honestly doesn't sound that farfetched to me. That's about what he got on Ganondorf too. Sounds like Altair's performance against Ratchet was very much in line with what the 2010 stats would indicate
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#363 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/24/2013 9:58:37 AM | message detail | (edited)
Welp this second round is really ****ing up my bracket so far

Is Kefka this great of a midcarder now? Does this put him close to Ryu (SF) level perhaps?
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#364 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/24/2013 9:58:09 AM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
I just dont' get why Ratchet is not horrible all of a sudden. I just assumed that 2010 was kind of a fluke. He hasn't been relevant in years, and he did horrible back when he was. 2007/2008 can be blamed on OLPF, but 2003/2004 speak for themselves.


Ratchet does suck. He has always sucked and continues to suck.
(not him and his games, I like both)
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#365 | spooky96 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:58:38 AM | message detail
Masato_Tanaka posted...
Welp this second round is really ****ing up my bracket so far


Same here ._.
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Beggars can't be choosers. gg Link.
#366 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:59:30 AM | message detail
Time for the Tomb Raider Power Hour to come to an end or something.
#367 | Qwaar | Posted 8/24/2013 9:59:36 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
Masato_Tanaka posted...
Welp this second round is really ****ing up my bracket so far


Same here ._.


Yeah, went from third on the expert leaderboard to 100 points off top.
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#368 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:00:55 AM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
I just dont' get why Ratchet is not horrible all of a sudden. I just assumed that 2010 was kind of a fluke. He hasn't been relevant in years, and he did horrible back when he was. 2007/2008 can be blamed on OLPF, but 2003/2004 speak for themselves.


He is not terrible because people tend to overrate Jecht to hell and back and I don't even understand why
So he got a whopping 40% on Zelda,big deal
While we never got a Zelda vs Tifa (and that's a real shame) it's easy to say they are equal
Big Daddy got 40% on Tifa,too

Beating 2010 PW is not that amazing either
#369 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 10:01:13 AM | message detail
Ratchet hasn't sucked since 2010, you people gotta get with the times!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#370 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:03:34 AM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
Yeah, went from third on the expert leaderboard to 100 points off top.


Devin is more than 200 off the top... >_>
#371 | spooky96 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:06:30 AM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
Qwaar posted...
Yeah, went from third on the expert leaderboard to 100 points off top.


Devin is more than 200 off the top... >_>


Me 31 right now in Expert. Feels good, RIP bracket though.
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Beggars can't be choosers. gg Link.
#372 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:07:35 AM | message detail
Maybe 2010 Ratchet was a fluke, he was crushed pretty badly by Ryu/Ken

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4520

Not that he should have done better because Ryu/Ken is awesome.
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#373 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:08:24 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'm still hanging in there at 25, but we'll see what happens from here.
#374 | pjbasis | Posted 8/24/2013 10:08:30 AM | message detail
luckily Lara has similar trends and is helping to tear into Kefka's percent
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#375 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:10:42 AM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
Qwaar posted...
Yeah, went from third on the expert leaderboard to 100 points off top.


Devin is more than 200 off the top... >_>


lol Devin, so far ahead of him now
#376 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/24/2013 10:11:16 AM | message detail
I think Altair is going to take second after all!
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#377 | xp1337 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:11:40 AM | message detail
there might be something to that "lara power hour" thing

go altair go
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#378 | superange128 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:13:21 AM | message detail
interestingly the second round has been very helpful to my bracket outside characters that lost in R1 already
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#379 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:13:37 AM | message detail
Expert challenge is stupid because of how much a single match can screw you over if you get against the consensus
Because it's possible to change the picks before the match,most people stick with what is generally the popular opinion-if it fails,they barely move on the leaderboard
I tried it myself,using the board consensus (crew predication,spread betting and random polls) for my expert picks and I was floating around the 15-30 places
Then I decided to go against the consensus for like..the first time...and fell of from place 15 to 150 or something?
Picking Luigi over Big Boss screwed me like no match ever did...without it I would be on the 16th place...right now im 6 points away from the leaderboard..yay..
Also the expert graph is totally unreadable,thanks..Allen
http://i.imgur.com/4XMS6P1.jpg
#380 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/24/2013 10:15:34 AM | message detail
I haven't looked at the leaderboard in like 20 matches because I don't want to see how depressingly far I am from it!

Take a tip from me
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#381 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 10:15:38 AM | message detail
Yeah, Altair is probably gonna get 2nd easily. He has all day to do this, and trends favor him massively.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#382 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:16:57 AM | message detail
The expert graph needs a zoom function, like geolocation
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Points: 86/105 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ryu Hayabusa
#383 | xp1337 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:17:34 AM | message detail
Expert Challenge is the best part of contest!

I am a bit frustrated with it lately because this entire round it feels like every time I get what I think should be a more split match (Shepard/Aerith, Big Boss/Luigi) it didn't seem to help as much as I'd have hoped or expected whereas every time I'm wrong apparently the hivemind was just locked in and crushed me.

But not much I can do about that. Hopefully everyone bails on Crono again and that will be my redemption!

but right now my top priority is to stop being tied with bacon and reestablish a huge lead over him. this is the worst. how did i fall this far?
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#384 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 10:17:44 AM | message detail
Alright Altair just a few more updates to catch Lara and then you gotta chip away at Kefka 60/40ing you

you can do it
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#385 | xp1337 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:18:27 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
The expert graph needs a zoom function, like geolocation

Hahaha, yes.

I actually tried that yesterday on the off chance it would work. I was disappointed.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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#386 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:20:20 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
The expert graph needs a zoom function, like geolocation


Yeah..we are near the end of the contest so he probably won't add something like this
It was relevant when I sent him that message but he ignored me
#387 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:21:59 AM | message detail
var expert_scores = [
{
label: "Expert Battle Score",
pre_label: "",
post_label: " Points: ",
data: [["-642", 1], ["-574", 1], ["-558", 1], ["-542", 1], ["-378", 1], ["-245", 1], ["-244", 1], ["-212", 1], ["-210", 1], ["-186", 2], ["-168", 1], ["-166", 1], ["-161", 1], ["-160", 1]


Heh
Well it's possible to use this data to create a better looking graph actually
#388 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/24/2013 10:25:19 AM | message detail
I've pretty much given up hope on my regular bracket. I've been floating 2 points behind SBAllen since the beginning of R2. I got to the top 10 on the Expert at one point, but every since the Division of Death, my expert's just been shredded. Been trailing 30-50 points behind the leaderboard ever since.
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#389 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:27:57 AM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
lol Devin, so far ahead of him now


I haven't watched his score consistently, but I feel like he must have just stopped picking at some point.
#390 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:29:47 AM | message detail | (edited)
I made my bracket with a series of assumptions, all which turned out to be wrong.

The only cookie upsets I still have is Zelda > Charizard and Mega Man winning in the next round.
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Points: 86/105 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ryu Hayabusa
#391 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/24/2013 10:31:50 AM | message detail
I've a question. Is Frog likely to get SFFed into the ground by Cloud, or is he more likely to leech Cloud anti-votes?
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#392 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:35:26 AM | message detail
Based on..common sense,he is supposed get SFF'd
Although I still consider him the favorite over Lugia because of Lugia picture and no one cares about Lugia (not even me!)
#393 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:38:46 AM | message detail
Old square tends to avoid getting SFF by new Square (and vice versa)

If it happens it won't be a total crushing, but I don't have much faith in Lugia
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#394 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:55:57 AM | message detail
I love Lugia, and I really wish I could pick him here.

Maybe it wouldn't have mattered either way, but the picture is the deal-breaker for me being able to take this upset. Doubt a grainy 3D head from Stadium 2 is going to help him perform near his best.
#395 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 10:57:44 AM | message detail
All those 100 votes second and third place stallwars are killing me
#396 | Link versus Cloud | Posted 8/24/2013 10:59:29 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
People had Altair > Lara? Lara's actually had a relevant game while Ezio's taken the spotlight away from Altair. He's all character design, while Lara at least has nostalgia backing her up.


Couldn't the exact same reasoning be used to say Ratchet>Altair? How did that go
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#397 | Link versus Cloud | Posted 8/24/2013 11:01:26 AM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
I love Lugia, and I really wish I could pick him here.

Maybe it wouldn't have mattered either way, but the picture is the deal-breaker for me being able to take this upset. Doubt a grainy 3D head from Stadium 2 is going to help him perform near his best.


Wait what? I thought lugia was the favorite here. Spread Betting has it as 27-21 for Lugia
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#398 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 11:05:02 AM | message detail
Which raise the question how does the spread betting decides on the spread...?
#399 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/24/2013 11:10:43 AM | message detail
Looks like Lara is fine after all.
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#400 | redrocket | Posted 8/24/2013 11:14:44 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
The Owner of FF9 posted...
And see, here I thought people just thought Bacon was dense, but now we're back to him being an outright liar.

Who is calling him a liar? He's bad at math, he's not a liar.

Also yeah that whole Vincent debacle did cost him some cred. I see nothing special about the pic theme this round that any random Vincent face pic wouldn't have satisfied. Then he actually insults people complaining about the pic.

Now that has nothing whatsoever to do with Draven, but lots of people are frustrated with Allen and so you're probably just seeing some extra venting.


Where did he post these comments? Does anyone have them saved?
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