Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1127

#301 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/24/2013 9:05:49 AM | message detail
#302 | ZFS | Posted 8/24/2013 9:05:58 AM | message detail
Kefka doing pretty good here.
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#303 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/24/2013 9:06:17 AM | message detail
I think Lara looked a litle better than Altair in round 1 at least. If Altair flopped he already did it in round 1.
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#304 | Master Moltar | Posted 8/24/2013 9:06:28 AM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
One of these freaking days, I'm going to grow a pair of balls and stop letting the contest crew sway my expert pick. This is the second time this round I've let them change my 2nd/3rd place, and ended up getting screwed by it.


if it makes you feel better I switched to lara > altair in the last minute




it probably doesn't make you feel better
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#305 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:06:56 AM | message detail
Altair>Lara>Kefka next update
Just because
#306 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/24/2013 9:07:02 AM | message detail
Altair's been going strong in the last minutes. He could still make a run for second.
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#307 | Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 8/24/2013 9:07:36 AM | message detail
is this a kefka match making sense

what
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#308 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 9:07:36 AM | message detail
Huh, I somehow survived on the Expert leaderboard, but not the prediction leaderboard.

Weird.
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#309 | Qwaar | Posted 8/24/2013 9:08:14 AM | message detail
Master Moltar posted...
Greyfeld posted...
One of these freaking days, I'm going to grow a pair of balls and stop letting the contest crew sway my expert pick. This is the second time this round I've let them change my 2nd/3rd place, and ended up getting screwed by it.


if it makes you feel better I switched to lara > altair in the last minute




it probably doesn't make you feel better


Well for a change I didn't listen to you guys and stuck with my gut and went for Lara in second.
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#310 | xp1337 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:09:12 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Huh, I somehow survived on the Expert leaderboard, but not the prediction leaderboard.

Weird.

The Expert Challenge leaderboard is a strange place that sometimes defies logic.

argh tied with bacon i am so ashamed
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#311 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/24/2013 9:09:55 AM | message detail
Lara to cut 45 votes
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#312 | superange128 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:09:56 AM | message detail
Regaro_Ukiera posted...
is this a kefka match making sense

what


I honestly thought people who said thigns like Kefka will get 2nd/3rd were just joking

Kefka's really just a different beast every since 2010
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#313 | pjbasis | Posted 8/24/2013 9:10:08 AM | message detail
#314 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/24/2013 9:10:12 AM | message detail
I'm back to despising the alphabet again. Only one of the 97s are on the leaderboard and it's Achromatic. Sir Chris had the right ****ing idea. Damn the alphabet ending with the underscrore instead of beginning it.
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#315 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/24/2013 9:10:16 AM | message detail
Not much change for Altair.
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#316 | xp1337 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:10:21 AM | message detail
okay now for real

curse you altair
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#317 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/24/2013 9:10:22 AM | message detail
Or that
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#318 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:10:23 AM | message detail
Yes, go Lara
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Points: 86/105 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ryu Hayabusa
#319 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 9:10:31 AM | message detail
#320 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/24/2013 9:10:56 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
101----1------------100.00
100----0------------0.00
99------1------------0.00
98------4------------50.00
97------4------------75.00
96------18----------38.89
95------54----------59.26
94------65----------56.92
93------67----------46.27
92------80----------65.00
91------87----------48.28
90------109--------60.55
89------108--------57.41
88------122--------50.82
87------120--------61.67
86------166--------64.46
85------216--------60.19
84------229--------69.43
83------287--------67.94
82------356--------65.17
81------414--------67.15
80------458--------71.83
79------512--------70.90
78------553--------69.08
77------596--------67.95
76------621--------67.95
75------591--------70.90
74------664--------68.37
73------636--------69.50
72------590--------67.46
71------593--------67.12
70------539--------68.09
69------553--------62.57
68------480--------56.04
67------430--------58.84
66------411--------56.45
65------331--------57.40
64------369--------57.45
63------302--------56.95
62------271--------51.66
61------271--------50.18
60------259--------47.49
59------219--------52.05
58------201--------43.78
57------218--------43.58
56------177--------44.07
55------171--------41.52
54------184--------41.85
53------124--------37.90
52------130--------42.31
51------140--------32.86
50------113--------45.13
49------87----------33.33
48------103--------43.69
47------88----------29.55
46------84----------30.95
45------73----------23.29
44------63----------34.92
43------65----------24.62
42------53----------43.40
41------50----------26.00
40------50----------28.00
39------37----------16.22
38------35----------28.57
37------30----------30.00
36------22----------13.64
35------17----------17.65
34------23----------13.04
33------23----------26.09
32------18----------22.22
31------9------------22.22
30------11----------36.36
29------10----------10.00
28------12----------50.00
27------7------------42.86
26------2------------0.00
25------11----------0.00
24------2------------0.00
23------3------------0.00
22------3------------0.00
21------2------------0.00
20------4------------0.00
19------2------------0.00
18------1------------0.00
17------2------------50.00

Omitted scores got it wrong.

The casuals seemed to do a bit better than us on this one. They had nearly 70% support for GlaDOS winning while the top tiers floated in the 40-60% range. While the last -10 (101 points) just keeps going on, we've now lost the last -12 (99 points).

20 people fell off the Top 49. Colegreen_c12, ahirsch101, Blairville, JordockX, LeonhartFour, Mac_Arrowny, mrdean55, NLMagic, Polycosm, TheKoolAidShoto, The_Ps2_Devil, ZenOfThunder, Amyson, Biscuit__, Bran_Stark, Calintares, Dragon66116, ExThaNemesis, Furious_Fura and Giggsalot did not have GlaDOS winning the match.

3 people got it wrong and survived. Former second place greengravy294, KCGemini and Luis_Sera89 also did not have GlaDOS winning the match.
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#321 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/24/2013 9:11:40 AM | message detail
As a Kefka fan, it's weird seeing him actually.... like, win matches

I'm not used to this
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#322 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:12:49 AM | message detail
Now the question is
Can he beat GlaDOS to second?
Guess he can but who knows
#323 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:12:57 AM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Least Impressive Night Winners
1. Weighted Companion Cube – Round 1 – 8979
2. Nathan Drake – Round 1 – 9667
3. Yoshimitsu – Round 1 – 9815
4. Elizabeth – Round 1 – 10217
5. Alucard – Round 1 – 10242
6. Dragonborn – Round 1 – 10638
7. Tharja – Round 1 – 11016
8. GlaDOS – Round 2 – 11066
9. Crash Bandicoot – Round 1 – 11242
10. Missingno – Round 1 – 11567
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Points: 86/105 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ryu Hayabusa
#324 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 9:15:24 AM | message detail
Kefka coming back to Earth rapidly.
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#325 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 9:17:46 AM | message detail
Trend chart for the night match:

Time | GlaDOS | Ike | Epona | Votes
0:05 | 44.17% | 22.08% | 33.75% | 240
1:00 | 43.66% | 25.76% | 30.58% | 4798
2:00 | 43.98% | 26.74% | 29.28% | 2824
3:00 | 44.87% | 25.04% | 30.08% | 2224
4:00 | 47.02% | 25.54% | 27.44% | 1793
5:00 | 43.07% | 27.92% | 29.01% | 1465
6:00 | 45.30% | 23.82% | 30.88% | 1331
7:00 | 47.84% | 23.96% | 28.21% | 1248
8:00 | 45.80% | 24.77% | 29.43% | 1417
9:00 | 46.66% | 26.24% | 27.10% | 1616
10:00 | 44.44% | 23.49% | 32.07% | 1852
11:00 | 45.21% | 24.57% | 30.22% | 1982
12:00 | 44.80% | 25.25% | 29.95% | 2087

X-Stats:

GlaDOS – 50.00%
Epona – 39.80%
Ike – 36.11%
Protoman – 35.83%
Dr. Robotnik – 32.28%
Mordin Solus – 31.63%
Cole MacGrath – 28.85%
Niko Bellic – 23.79%
Ragna the Bloodedge – 22.92%

GlaDOS's prediction percentage was 59.25%
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#326 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:17:59 AM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
One of these freaking days, I'm going to grow a pair of balls and stop letting the contest crew sway my expert pick. This is the second time this round I've let them change my 2nd/3rd place, and ended up getting screwed by it.


Yeah. Obviously, I owe those guys big time for helping me make sense out of some of these matches. I don't know why I keep going against my gut, though, as that pretty much never works.
#327 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/24/2013 9:21:11 AM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
Greyfeld posted...
One of these freaking days, I'm going to grow a pair of balls and stop letting the contest crew sway my expert pick. This is the second time this round I've let them change my 2nd/3rd place, and ended up getting screwed by it.


Yeah. Obviously, I owe those guys big time for helping me make sense out of some of these matches. I don't know why I keep going against my gut, though, as that pretty much never works.


My problem is, I didn't really have a gut pick. I just thought that Lara had all the intangibles going in her favor. Then the crew sweepingly said, "Yeah, Altair over Lara, no contest." I should have known not to listen to that crap when they said the same thing about Crash>Elizabeth.
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#328 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/24/2013 9:21:50 AM | message detail
Looks like Epona had a stronger 10am hour than what's bolded.
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#329 | pjbasis | Posted 8/24/2013 9:21:59 AM | message detail
Blargh my gut was right over the crew 1 in every 10 times argh
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#330 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 9:22:16 AM | message detail
20 minute stats:

Kefka – 50.00%
Zack Fair – 46.29%
Ryu Hayabusa – 43.90%
Lara Croft – 41.80%
Altair – 37.05%
Ratchet – 31.43%
Slime – 30.15%
Shulk – 25.16%
Yuri Hyuga – 12.37%
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#331 | pjbasis | Posted 8/24/2013 9:22:21 AM | message detail
Though seriously Shulk got over 20%
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#332 | xp1337 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:23:09 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Looks like Epona had a stronger 10am hour than what's bolded.

Freeze too, but I don't know if that counts.
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#333 | Kibago | Posted 8/24/2013 9:23:55 AM | message detail
and Kefka has come through with the biggest surprise at all
a smooth, boring victory
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#334 | Jakyl25 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:23:56 AM | message detail
I stopped paying hyper-close attention to the contest but then I just rallied back to the Expert Leaderboard based on common sense picks.

But then now that I got back on the Expert Leaderboard I decided to check out what the statheads were saying about this match, and it convinced me to change my pick and it cost me.

STICK TO COMMON SENSE JAKYL
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#335 | xp1337 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:28:49 AM | message detail
I didn't like Altair's R1 but I wasn't sure what to make of Lara/Slime so I just went with Altair and hoped for the best.

whoops.
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#336 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:29:03 AM | message detail
Just as I'm screwing up my expert picks left and right, I find I'm somehow tied again for 51st with my normal bracket. Weird, since that bracket was really terrible.

Guess it doesn't matter though, since I sure didn't pick freaking Draven. (I didn't even pick him to win a single match.)
#337 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/24/2013 9:29:53 AM | message detail
Well, most people got Kefka wrong in Round 1, so it's not like my bracket is taking too much of a blow this round (picked Lara)
#338 | pjbasis | Posted 8/24/2013 9:29:55 AM | message detail
It's interesting when the Chester stats and X-stats diverge at the bottom


GlaDOS - 3.54’
Epona - 2.34’
Ike - 2.00’
Proto Man - 1.97’
Eggman - 1.62’
Mordin - 1.54’
Cole - 1.43’
Ragna - 1.05’
Niko - 1.00’
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#339 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 9:30:18 AM | message detail
Altair with two minor cuts.

Might not be done yet.
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#340 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/24/2013 9:30:34 AM | message detail
Picked Lara > Altair here without much doubt. Figured that PS icon boost and the fact that Altair should've fallen further would give her an easy win here. Finally that didn't bite me.
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#341 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:31:33 AM | message detail | (edited)
Altair finally making cuts
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Points: 86/105 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ryu Hayabusa
#342 | Jakyl25 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:31:24 AM | message detail
So then of course my last post is followed by two straight Altair cuts.

IF HE COMES BACK THEN ^5 STATHEADS!
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#343 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 9:31:27 AM | message detail
#344 | xp1337 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:31:28 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Altair with two minor cuts.

Might not be done yet.

turning false hope status to high alert
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#345 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/24/2013 9:33:46 AM | message detail
Those cuts were barely noticeable though. I'd be really surprised to actually see him win.

And with how round 2 has made me move almost nowhere in the expert challenge so far compared to what I should, I need these 18 points.
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#346 | pjbasis | Posted 8/24/2013 9:34:02 AM | message detail
So uh, what are Altair's trends like anyway?
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#347 | Sorozone | Posted 8/24/2013 9:35:30 AM | message detail
Yay go my Altair.
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#348 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/24/2013 9:35:30 AM | message detail
Now that's a cut
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 86/105 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ryu Hayabusa
#349 | Qwaar | Posted 8/24/2013 9:35:43 AM | message detail
Oh god, stop cutting!
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#350 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 9:35:47 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
So uh, what are Altair's trends like anyway?


Slow start, good day vote/
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