GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1127
- Team Aqua Elite (37)
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creativename posted... Who says the miracle never happen? I literally said it on the latest episode of The Show, bad grammar included. </shameless plug> --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
Also darn it lookin' like I'm on my way to a big fat -18 Goodbye Expert Challenge --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
Yeah I didn't pick anything this round for expert. Hopefully I don't drop too far from 14th. ... I at least want to still be on the leader board :( |
LeonhartFour posted... Also darn it lookin' like I'm on my way to a big fat -18 Why? I mean, how did people not pick Ike for last place here? --- Tornadoman78: tornadoman and tornadogirl like to kick box each other in my tornaolayzers and she dosent even mind getting hit |
I
picked Ike for last and no picked first and second. Didn't see anyway
he didn't finish last, but thought he might drag Epona down. Turns out
Glados didn't need the LFF anyway, which surprised me. Ike scared me a bit with those early cuts on Epona though. LeonhartFour posted... creativename posted...Who says the miracle never happen? In Luster we trust. I believe. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Yeah
I knew Ike was getting last. My mistake was picking Epona > GlaDOS. I
looked at their opponents and figured Mordin was pretty decent and Niko
was okay (lol). I figured there was no way people were going to abandon
GlaDOS (people were ****ing obsessed with Portal for awhile). My gut
told me to take GlaDOS > Epona but damn ZeldaFAQs scared me out of
it. --- Tornadoman78: tornadoman and tornadogirl like to kick box each other in my tornaolayzers and she dosent even mind getting hit |
Didn't feel strongly about any of these three, to be honest. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
The Real Truth posted... LeonhartFour posted...Also darn it lookin' like I'm on my way to a big fat -18 Because when the other two candidates' best stat showings were doubling Cole and Niko Bellic, it seemed like the guy who beat Protoman would have a good shot at not coming in last. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Oh,
geez, my weakest pick of the round (outside of lol Fox to R3) is coming
up. That's right, I picked Kefka to beat Zack/Ryu H and then lose to Altair. ...I still think he could do it! Altair is damn crazy in the day and it just depends on what game he brings. Kefka is more independent from Lara though and it isn't helping that his quote just blows Altair's (so bad) out of the water. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
How
exactly was Ike a lock for last place...? what about all those theories
about Eponda folding when she is against notable Nintendo characters? Or this is another case of "YEAH IT WAS OBVIOUS" like Crash>Wheatly |
You gotta hope Altair doesn't continue his trend of showing up in round 1 and flopping in round 2! Of course, you've got a better shot than I do either way because I've got Zack winning (lawl). If I'd have picked Hayabusa instead, I'd have probably picked Altair in round 2. Oh well. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
Although
really, I guess it would've been smarter for me to hedge my bets here
and go with something other than what my bracket had. But if I did, there's a decent chance I would've gone Epona > Ike > GlaDOS, so still -18 either way...! --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
Every match ever is obvious, haven't you figured that out Anyway, if I can roughly keep at parity (top tiers probably don't have Kefka for the most part), then I've got Dante (feeling bad about, Squirtle just looks better and it's not Dante's best look - though not DMC2 Dante, so! Progress!), Leon (feeling bad about because that picture is awful, but in fairness everyone has him), Pikachu (considering this a mortal lock at this point with that picture, personally), Squall (Missingno will need to cheat just to be in the match, feel good), Red (feelin' great), Zero (feelin' goodish), and Charizard (feelin' good). Then my contest winner dies to an LoL character. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Nanis23 posted... How exactly was Ike a lock for last place...? what about all those theories about Eponda folding when she is against notable Nintendo characters? I picked Wheatley in that match. It wasn't obvious. How was Epona going to fold? Maybe against a relevant character from the main Mario franchise. The horse from Zelda was never going to fold against a character from Fire Emblem. I was trying to find Robotnik/Protoman past matches and I think they looked pretty bad (couldn't remember which contest was villains, so I gave up). Mainly I thought to myself, would I take Robotnik/Protoman over Epona? No. No I would not. --- Tornadoman78: tornadoman and tornadogirl like to kick box each other in my tornaolayzers and she dosent even mind getting hit |
Eh, I think Leon will be fine. The pic isn't great, but I think he's far enough ahead of Gordon that it won't matter. But c'mon Wrex --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
You know who's not in front of Gordon? Unadjusted Leon. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
This creativename guy is a very sad, sad individual. My god you all take a popularity contest way to seriously. --- http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1555051/cle.gif http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/1875n6uzefjuxgif/original.gif LoL IGN: Paintballreturns |
are you suggesting an RE6 pic is worse for Leon than an RE Gaiden pic --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
ChrroMan91 posted... This creativename guy is a very sad, sad individual. We're all in rehab right now. We appreciate you taking the time to drop in and give us your moral support, man. Some of us struggle harder than others, but I think we'll all make it. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
LeonhartFour posted... are you suggesting an RE6 pic is worse for Leon than an RE Gaiden pic I don't think I've seen people hate on RE Gaiden like RE6 !! --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
The Real Truth posted... Nanis23 posted...How exactly was Ike a lock for last place...? what about all those theories about Eponda folding when she is against notable Nintendo characters? I can't really say about Proto Man, but yes, Robotnik did look pretty bad back in Spring 2005... --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
are we talking a Lightning-esque deboost here what if we dressed up Leon like Squall --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
It also doesn't help that the picture just looks really, really bad. If you put that to me without the name I couldn't tell you who that is. Granted, it's not as bad as Vincent Vega (...I think), but it can't exactly do Leon Kennedy any favors either. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I dunno. I saw the pic and it looked like Leon to me. But I've never played RE so what do I know --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
Maybe
it won't matter! I doubt anyone who could seriously threaten me has
Gordon (or lol Shadow) anyway. But I prefer Leon and his quippy action
movie one-liners so it'd be disappointing for him to get screwed over
*again*. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Karma Hunter posted... It also doesn't help that the picture just looks really, really bad. Still looks more like Keanu Reeves to me than Vincent Vega! Which is worse, Pulp Fiction is great. And yeah that Leon pic is quite bad...should be better than his sprite pic though. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Karma Hunter posted... It also doesn't help that the picture just looks really, really bad. It's bad but seriously no character has ever received a picture as bad as Vincent. That was honestly the worst thing I've ever seen. I hope someone punches paulg in the face for that. --- Tornadoman78: tornadoman and tornadogirl like to kick box each other in my tornaolayzers and she dosent even mind getting hit |
I..hm..tried to calculate something and it doesn't look pretty Using Phoenix/Marth/Nightmare to as a basis to calculate Draven/Jak/Chie vote totals if Draven rally never happened Third hour in,match was 44/24/33,which is not excatly like 44/19/36 in Phoenix match,but it's the closest Anyway Using the vote totals of each hour/final vote totals,it seems like First hour-19.43% Second Hour-12.5% Third Hour-8.97% Using those values,if we calculate the first 3 hours of Draven match,Jak was supposed to finish with 12669 votes But by 2:30,the rally already started...so if we calculate up to the second hour,he was supposed to finish with 12395 Since the rally started 30 minutes in the second hour,we will do the average of the above results - 12532 Jak finished with 13191,which is 659 more votes he was supposed to get... In Draven case-he was supposed to finish with 6196 votes,but finished with 16081,which is 9885 more than he was supposed to Chie - 9775 to 10465 - 690 (yeah I know it's weird she got more votes than Jak) So the total amount of votes from the rally are...11234...88% of them went to Draven This is far from fail proof and I probably had tons of miscalculations but if someone got the general idea from this and can do a better job and calculate to MMX match as well,I think it will help us to see just how powerful the rally is |
BTW
Dante is winning his match. Zidane's picture steals the cuteness of
Squirtle's picture and their fanbases are going to overlap more. Dante
is kind of on the outside here. Despite not receiving his best picture
possible, he didn't receive the Bob picture. A rally on some outside
site would lose that match for Dante though. --- Tornadoman78: tornadoman and tornadogirl like to kick box each other in my tornaolayzers and she dosent even mind getting hit |
Nanis23 posted... I..hm..tried to calculate something and it doesn't look pretty Actually I have no idea where to start The Rally started pretty much from the first minute of this match (although picked steam by 0:15) there are not enough to samples to calculate how much votes X and Ryu would get without Draven rally Maybe it's possible to use Sonic/Fei/Dan 66/20/14 match as some sort of basis for this? now sure how |
LeonhartFour posted... Although really, I guess it would've been smarter for me to hedge my bets here and go with something other than what my bracket had. I am a point ahead of you right now, and went Glados>Glados>Ike. I felt comfortable that was either 0 or 6, which I was ok with. To me, felt more like 6 than 0, so better risk than just taking Ike for third. I'm shocked I ever saw the leaderboard again after -18 on Draven and Vincent (literally the worst result ever for me), but amazed at what Elizabeth>Crash did for me (everyone ahead of me except for one who I could pass I did). --- 243 character battle royale? My head hurts. RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/05 |
Karma Hunter posted... LeonhartFour posted...are you suggesting an RE6 pic is worse for Leon than an RE Gaiden pic Well Samus got an Other M pic and Claire got an Operation Raccoon City pic. And then you could go into Master Chief getting a Halo 4 pic, Yuna/Rikku with FFX-2 pics, and Zelda with a Skyward Sword pic. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
Nanis23 posted... How exactly was Ike a lock for last place...? what about all those theories about Eponda folding when she is against notable Nintendo characters? Ike isn't exactly a notable Nintendo character. He's basically Brawl and that's it. This site has already shown that Brawl alone is not enough to make a character notable. Anyway, Ike's performance here is just another nail in the coffin for SSB-oriented characters this contest. Helps out my theory that Brawl, Twilight Princess, and Metal Gear Solid 4 are all gradually getting weaker. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
Nanis,
Lopen described an analysis he did, it should be in the last topic or
the one before that. You'd probably like that analysis, it's a good one. I'd search for you but I'm on a cell phone. Maybe someone else can link it for you. The Real Truth posted... It's bad but seriously Something that TRE pointed out, and that I think speaks volumes, is that Vincent's board vote was - considering his competition - great! He was against Phoenix Wright and Mewtwo, with PW being one of the biggest board vote monsters we've ever seen, and Mewtwo having a great board vote as well. Yet Vincent, he of notoriously one of the worst board votes ever (...losing outright to Bidoof!!), took an hour to even budge in percentage. Instead of the usual FF7 rise to heaven, Vincent hardly rose at all. Whatever voters were thinking of that thing, they were clearly *not* treating it like Vincent from FF7. (and I hope the guy to punch paulg in the face is Wolverine...bone claws or adamantium claws, either will do! >_> ) --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I know about that analysis he did,but he called those votes "stuffed" so im not sure if this is what i'm looking for I'm looking for a way to check how many votes Jak,Chie,Ryu and X got from Draven RALLY,considering all the votes are legit and none was "stuffed" |
Nanis
if you're interested in what I did to look at this I just approximated
Draven at 15% based on his starting percentage (he was rally influenced
the whole match so even those first 3 updates were potentially
misleading) + what he got on Jak + Chie. I think that's pretty
reasonable and generous if anything. Even putting Draven at 15%
GameFAQs percent the amount of the "rallied" votes he got was pretty
astounding. Approximated him at 25% vs Jak + Chie based on the
assumption he'd naturally go up a bit with the Europe vote. Here are the results for the first few hours if you're interested, Nanis. My methodolgy was similar but a little different than yours-- I counted up vote totals from matches nearby with similar amounts of starpower to use as the "expected" vote totals and then approximated extra votes for half hour segments based on how many more votes there were vs the control matches (MMX/Jigglypuff/Welkin for r1, Link/Raiden/Yoshi for r2). Then I approximated Draven's GameFAQs votes based on his approximate percentage + expected "normal" vote totals, and subtracted that from his votes gained total to approximate how many went to him. Ryu vs MMX vs Draven Time: MMX + Ryu's %, (approximated extra votes) 0:35-1:05: 10% (4378 approximated extra votes) 1:05-1:35: 10.3% (4878) 1:35-2:05: 11.9% (4106) 2:05-2:35: 12.4% (3620) 2:35-3:05: 7.9% (2838) 3:05-3:35: 12.3% (3259) 3:35-4:05: 8.4% (2481) 4:05-4:35: 5.8% (2221) 4:35-5:05: 9.8% (2265) 5:05-5:35: 5.1% (2173) 5:35-6:05: 5.2% (2029) 6:05-6:35: 8.2% (2126) 6:35-7:05: 6.4% (1946) 7:05-7:35: 2.4% (1864) Jak vs Chie vs Draven Time: Jak + Chie%, (approximated extra votes) 1503-769, 518 Draven 573 (extra votes before here were too low to bother with) 3:05-3:35: 4.4% (411) 3:35-4:05: 1% (770) 4:05-4:35: 9.7% (656) 4:35-5:05: 10.4% (888) 5:05-5:35: 11.9% (906) 5:35-6:05: 12.5% (770) 6:05-6:35: 28.9% (944) 6:35-7:05: 35.7% (843) 7:05-7:35: 29.5% (734) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Well
regardless of if you naively think they're all legitimate or not, those
are the percentages of the "extra votes" that went to the other
competitors for the first 7 hours of those matches. The analysis holds
regardless of whether you agree with me they're stuffed or not. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
creativename posted... Something that TRE pointed out, and that I think speaks volumes, is that Vincent's board vote was - considering his competition - great! Vincent's trends in that match was nothing like we had ever seen before. He was supposed to rip Phoenix apart with the Total Domination Zone and make no real attempt at putting together a series of cuts on Phoenix. I know Phoenix also has a good night vote, but Vincent is supposed to have the stronger night vote here. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Chart from the day match: Time | Snake | Alucard | Bayonetta | Votes 0:05 | 56.33% | 27.50% | 16.17% | 600 1:00 | 60.56% | 23.26% | 16.18% | 4544 2:00 | 60.03% | 23.67% | 16.30% | 3553 3:00 | 60.62% | 21.77% | 17.62% | 3014 4:00 | 60.88% | 21.79% | 17.33% | 2781 5:00 | 61.95% | 21.15% | 16.90% | 2610 6:00 | 59.69% | 22.65% | 17.66% | 2486 7:00 | 61.04% | 22.11% | 16.85% | 2356 8:00 | 61.27% | 22.75% | 15.98% | 1952 9:00 | 60.58% | 24.29% | 15.13% | 1910 10:00 | 59.46% | 24.97% | 15.57% | 1702 11:00 | 60.29% | 24.30% | 15.41% | 1564 12:00 | 60.19% | 21.54% | 18.27% | 1560 Snake is pretty consistent throughout. Bayonetta does better than during the day and Alucard does better at night, with the exception of a weird last hour. X-Stats: Solid Snake 50.00% Alucard 27.34% Captain Falcon 27.20% Rydia of Mist 23.68% Isaac 22.20% Bayonetta 21.55% N 15.85% Wander 13.15% Commander Keen 10.64% Snake's prediction percentage was 79.97% --- http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/9919/leonhart.png |
I'm
pretty confident that Mewtwo would have won the match regardless of the
pic, but we'll never know because of that horrendous sabotage by that
profligate paulg. (Allen is partly at fault too) IIRC, Mr.Big Boss was the one who submitted that illustrious pic for Luigi, he certainly didn't feel that there's need to resort to such unscrupulous tactics. Btw, good performance by Glados, even accounting for Nintendo LFF, she would beat Ike by a pretty decent margin. --- The cycle of life and death continues. We will live. And they will die. |
Current X-Stats: GlaDOS 50.00% Epona 39.98% Ike 36.81% Protoman 36.52% Dr. Robotnik 32.90% Mordin Solus 31.77% Cole MacGrath 28.85% Niko Bellic 23.90% Ragna the Bloodedge 22.92% --- http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/9919/leonhart.png |
Mewtwo would almost certainly beat Vincent even without the pic. That would be the biggest pic vote swing we've ever seen by a lot otherwise. As for why Vincent's board vote wasn't ass probably because it was a highly debated match and he was the bracket vote. Also I feel like PW and Mewtwo could've board vote SFFed each other if that makes sense. Okay it probably doesn't but it does to me dammit-- same theory I used to (rightfully, even though he didn't quite make the comeback in full) not count Crash out yesterday! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
It's not that I don't believe in it,hell I don't believe ANYONE in the world would prefer Draven over the likes of X and Ryu It's just that,right now we need to look at the "facts" and if Allen said all votes are legit,we need to treat them as such What I don't understand is,though,why in the case of Jak and Chie they get more "extra votes" as the match goes on,but in X match it's the opposite? (with a whopping 2.4%,too!) |
My theory is that it was one of the following things: In Jak/Chie: - The geolocation percentages in the match were legitimate to an extent and the rally was just a lot stronger in Europe. Thus when America starts to wake up we get more votes for Jak/Chie. OR - There was some cheating to start, and it was stopped once Draven gained the lead (the spike in Jak/Chie votes happened the half hour after he took the lead) In Ryu/MMX - There were gobs of cheated votes, and as the real rally lost strength (due to people having already seen it) the cheated votes became a bigger proportion of the extra votes, which caused it to be more skewed towards Draven than it'd normally be as the match went on. You'll notice that there's an inverse correlation between # of extra votes and Draven's percentage of the votes-- which to me says there were a flat amount of stuffed votes per update + the legitimate rally votes. Don't really have a legitimate rally answer to the MMX/Ryu match which is a big part of the reason I think that that was blatant cheating and choose to disregard Bacon's claims about it. Well, there are like 10 reasons I choose to ignore it but that's a big one, anyway. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Argh
Draven talk. Just out of curiosity, how do the x-stats for that
ninepack look if Wander is given is 2010 number on Captain Falcon? --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
Get used to it I don't think there is going to be a single day without Draven being mentioned in this topic until the end of the contest |
Nanis23 posted... Get used to it There's only one way to guarantee that doesn't happen. VOTE LINK --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
creativename posted... Nanis, Lopen described an analysis he did, it should be in the last topic or the one before that. You'd probably like that analysis, it's a good one. I think the board really pitied Vincent on this one. I would almost never vote against Phoenix, save against maybe 5 characters in a fair situation, and I almost considered voting for Vincent because of how bad that pic was. You know what Allen, you want to make this right? We have another bonus poll at the end of this round, right? Vincent vs. Phoenix vs. Mewtwo II, with fair pictures. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
(Although Allen would never go for it because it'd make him look bad if Vincent won) --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
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