Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1127

#101 | Qwaar | Posted 8/23/2013 10:00:02 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Kefka > Lara > Altair BOOK IT


I thought that was a given?
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#102 | thunderstruck9 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:01:30 PM | message detail
Lara> Kefka> Altair. My prediction any way. Kefka gets my vote.
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#103 | Qwaar | Posted 8/23/2013 10:01:58 PM | message detail
Epona close to cutting Glados.
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#104 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:03:34 PM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
Epona close to cutting Glados.

I was wondering that. I've only been tracking the margin with Ike but with some of these gains I was thinking Epona might be stalling at least.
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#105 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/23/2013 10:05:30 PM | message detail
I think that Kefka is a lock to win tomorrows match... I just don't know who will be 2nd. Those two probably LFF eachother quite a bit since they appeal to the same audience while Kefka really stands out.
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#106 | creativename | Posted 8/23/2013 10:06:13 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
While the idea of LusterSoldier single-handedly shutting down the Reddit machine tickles my fancy, it's not terribly realistic. Draven went from high fodder to strongest entrant ever in between matches when his fanbase had to wait 40 days to even see him again. I honestly thought they would have just forgotten about the whole thing given that insane timeframe between matches. Also, his R1 rallied were spurred largely by B8ers posting on Reddit, and most of us didn't give a crap this time because no one had him in our brackets anymore. And yet, he still exploded.

This time, the fanbase is more pumped (some of them seemed to really get a kick out of how displeased we were getting at the result and they're probably all too willing to do it again) and they only have to wait 12 days for their crack at Link, not 40. The odds of countering something like that are simply futile.

Plus, I'm going to have Draven in my Expert bracket and will be giving him like 66% in the Oracle, so hell, I might get more miffed if the rallies are a bust and he ends at 12%.

If we can actually get a couple hundred downvotes within the first half hour for any Reddit rally thread, we'll kill it. Kill it dead. No thread can recover from a start that bad. It will get completely lost in the Reddit shuffle.

The issue is how much of this is the Reddit rally, vs. pure stuffing. If it's truly Reddit - yes, we can kill that if we actually bother to take action. Again it's very easy for things to get lost in the Reddit shuffle. And early downvotes matter far more than late downvotes, after a thread has already gained attention.

If it's stuffing (which it mostly seems like) then this will not work. But have no doubt, we can manage the Reddit thing. Reddit stuff relies heavily on momentum.

The actual Reddit rallies for Draven were handled by a small number of people. We almost certainly outnumber that group, the only difference is I doubt too many of us are willing to bother doing any actual work.
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#107 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 10:13:11 PM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
I think that Kefka is a lock to win tomorrows match... I just don't know who will be 2nd. Those two probably LFF eachother quite a bit since they appeal to the same audience while Kefka really stands out.


I'm taking Lara pretty comfortably at second. She has a lot more games under her belt, and Ezio is the face of the AC series. Altair hasn't had a new game since his very small role in Revelations in 2011.
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#108 | thunderstruck9 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:17:26 PM | message detail
Allen denied stuffing in the last draven match. If we can kill the rally threads and draven still gets fifty thousand votes I think at the very least we will prove cheating.
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#109 | LaqOfInterest | Posted 8/23/2013 10:23:03 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
While the idea of LusterSoldier single-handedly shutting down the Reddit machine tickles my fancy, it's not terribly realistic. Draven went from high fodder to strongest entrant ever in between matches when his fanbase had to wait 40 days to even see him again. I honestly thought they would have just forgotten about the whole thing given that insane timeframe between matches. Also, his R1 rallied were spurred largely by B8ers posting on Reddit, and most of us didn't give a crap this time because no one had him in our brackets anymore. And yet, he still exploded.

This time, the fanbase is more pumped (some of them seemed to really get a kick out of how displeased we were getting at the result and they're probably all too willing to do it again) and they only have to wait 12 days for their crack at Link, not 40. The odds of countering something like that are simply futile.

Plus, I'm going to have Draven in my Expert bracket and will be giving him like 66% in the Oracle, so hell, I might get more miffed if the rallies are a bust and he ends at 12%.

If we can actually get a couple hundred downvotes within the first half hour for any Reddit rally thread, we'll kill it. Kill it dead. No thread can recover from a start that bad. It will get completely lost in the Reddit shuffle.

The issue is how much of this is the Reddit rally, vs. pure stuffing. If it's truly Reddit - yes, we can kill that if we actually bother to take action. Again it's very easy for things to get lost in the Reddit shuffle. And early downvotes matter far more than late downvotes, after a thread has already gained attention.

If it's stuffing (which it mostly seems like) then this will not work. But have no doubt, we can manage the Reddit thing. Reddit stuff relies heavily on momentum.

The actual Reddit rallies for Draven were handled by a small number of people. We almost certainly outnumber that group, the only difference is I doubt too many of us are willing to bother doing any actual work.

I actually can't tell whether or not you guys have entered the realm of self-parody or if you're being serious
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#110 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/23/2013 10:28:11 PM | message detail
Yet with all those games she has, Lara Croft has still always been between "meh" and "really bad" in the past. Her extensive series is if anything weighing her down; her games are generally seen as having decayed to mediocrity or being outright bad in the PS2 era, just like Crash and Spyro.

The reboot and a possible PS1 nostalgia boost like Spyro got might be enough to beat Altair but yeah. Without those, she loses hard there.
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#111 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/23/2013 10:30:21 PM | message detail | (edited)
Hmm, I was thinking that Lara was a lock for last, but now I'm not sure.

...I'll probably stick with it anyway.
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#112 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 10:30:50 PM | message detail
Altair looked very legit in Round 1.
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#113 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:31:09 PM | message detail
thunderstruck9 posted...
Allen denied stuffing in the last draven match. If we can kill the rally threads and draven still gets fifty thousand votes I think at the very least we will prove cheating.


pfft, even if Draven came in 3rd Allen would just remove votes from Link and Shepard
#114 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:33:28 PM | message detail
Funny
I really had GlaDOS>Epona>Ike before I decided to go crazy and switch GlaDOS and Epona
Oh well maybe the contest is still not in the chaos zone yet!
#115 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 10:36:51 PM | message detail
Altair went 57/43 on Ratchet. I would put Ratchet a tier below Jak, Crash and Spyro. I'm not sure I would take Ratchet over Slime.
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#116 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 10:37:32 PM | message detail
2010 disagrees with you.
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#117 | pjbasis | Posted 8/23/2013 10:38:49 PM | message detail
I would definitely take Slime over Ratchet
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#118 | LaqOfInterest | Posted 8/23/2013 10:38:50 PM | message detail
I put Kefka>Lara because I think Kefka's dad could beat up Lara's dad
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#119 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 10:40:45 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
2010 disagrees with you.


2010 had Jak stuck behind Yoshi SFF. I wouldn't take his match as a serious showing of his strength.
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#120 | creativename | Posted 8/23/2013 10:42:22 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
Altair went 57/43 on Ratchet. I would put Ratchet a tier below Jak, Crash and Spyro. I'm not sure I would take Ratchet over Slime.

Yeah I think the Slime performance was legit by Lara. Altair is likely very close to her in strength though.

If this was Ezio I'd take him without hesitation, but Altair isn't a chump either.

I just hope Kefka doesn't find a way to blow this. No-picking 2nd and 3rd for that one.
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#121 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/23/2013 10:43:02 PM | message detail
Whether you take Ratchet to beat those other character isn't as relevant as Ratchet looking decent in 2010, therefore 57% on him is not necessarily a problem..
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#122 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 10:43:02 PM | message detail
I'm not talking about Jak, I'm talking about Ratchet. 2010 Ratchet actually ended up close to 2010 Altair's strength - he put on a very good showing that year. Altair dispatching him so easily this year despite a 'mascot' resurgence says good things about him.
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#123 | anondum | Posted 8/23/2013 10:48:02 PM | message detail
horsey :(
#124 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:51:51 PM | message detail
LaqOfInterest posted...
creativename posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
While the idea of LusterSoldier single-handedly shutting down the Reddit machine tickles my fancy, it's not terribly realistic. Draven went from high fodder to strongest entrant ever in between matches when his fanbase had to wait 40 days to even see him again. I honestly thought they would have just forgotten about the whole thing given that insane timeframe between matches. Also, his R1 rallied were spurred largely by B8ers posting on Reddit, and most of us didn't give a crap this time because no one had him in our brackets anymore. And yet, he still exploded.

This time, the fanbase is more pumped (some of them seemed to really get a kick out of how displeased we were getting at the result and they're probably all too willing to do it again) and they only have to wait 12 days for their crack at Link, not 40. The odds of countering something like that are simply futile.

Plus, I'm going to have Draven in my Expert bracket and will be giving him like 66% in the Oracle, so hell, I might get more miffed if the rallies are a bust and he ends at 12%.

If we can actually get a couple hundred downvotes within the first half hour for any Reddit rally thread, we'll kill it. Kill it dead. No thread can recover from a start that bad. It will get completely lost in the Reddit shuffle.

The issue is how much of this is the Reddit rally, vs. pure stuffing. If it's truly Reddit - yes, we can kill that if we actually bother to take action. Again it's very easy for things to get lost in the Reddit shuffle. And early downvotes matter far more than late downvotes, after a thread has already gained attention.

If it's stuffing (which it mostly seems like) then this will not work. But have no doubt, we can manage the Reddit thing. Reddit stuff relies heavily on momentum.

The actual Reddit rallies for Draven were handled by a small number of people. We almost certainly outnumber that group, the only difference is I doubt too many of us are willing to bother doing any actual work.

I actually can't tell whether or not you guys have entered the realm of self-parody or if you're being serious


What? there is nothing wrong with caring about contests and trying to do a counter rally
For some people,those contests are hobby,just like video games are
What do you think,that if Riot does something stupid and it will ruin some people "hobby" do you think they will shut up about it and let it slide?
Well no,Master Yi remake made a lot of noise and it wasn't even that much of a big deal
Just think what would happen if Riot decides to do something like..say..add an item like Dota "Blink Dagger"

Maybe then their "rally" power will be more useful than ruin our contest..with all thje petitions they would make
#125 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 10:56:57 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I'm not talking about Jak, I'm talking about Ratchet. 2010 Ratchet actually ended up close to 2010 Altair's strength - he put on a very good showing that year. Altair dispatching him so easily this year despite a 'mascot' resurgence says good things about him.


I guess that really depends on where you expect the votes from Shulk to go.
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#126 | LaqOfInterest | Posted 8/23/2013 10:59:25 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
What? there is nothing wrong with caring about contests and trying to do a counter rally
For some people,those contests are hobby,just like video games are
What do you think,that if Riot does something stupid and it will ruin some people "hobby" do you think they will shut up about it and let it slide?
Well no,Master Yi remake made a lot of noise and it wasn't even that much of a big deal
Just think what would happen if Riot decides to do something like..say..add an item like Dota "Blink Dagger"

Maybe then their "rally" power will be more useful than ruin our contest..with all thje petitions they would make

I'm 100% fine with counter-rallies, but this guy's going "VOTE STUFFING VOTE STUFFING CRUSH THE RALLY TO EXPOSE THE CONSPIRACY WAKE UP SHEEPLE" even after Allen confirmed there was no stuffing.
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#127 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/23/2013 11:08:21 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
On that front - @Luster - can you use your mutant cyborg powers to create like 200 Reddit accounts and immediately downvote and Draven rally threads as soon as they pop up?


It's going to be hard to make that many accounts since Reddit only allows you to make 1 account every 10 minutes. Getting to 100 accounts will take a long time.
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#128 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:10:41 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
creativename posted...
On that front - @Luster - can you use your mutant cyborg powers to create like 200 Reddit accounts and immediately downvote and Draven rally threads as soon as they pop up?


It's going to be hard to make that many accounts since Reddit only allows you to make 1 account every 10 minutes. Getting to 100 accounts will take a long time.


Aren't you on their side though..?
#129 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/23/2013 11:12:29 PM | message detail
Because several users humiliated me for something I posted on Reddit, I have to redeem myself by taking part in any kind of activities that would stop the Reddit rallies.
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#130 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 11:18:22 PM | message detail
LaqOfInterest posted...
Nanis23 posted...
What? there is nothing wrong with caring about contests and trying to do a counter rally
For some people,those contests are hobby,just like video games are
What do you think,that if Riot does something stupid and it will ruin some people "hobby" do you think they will shut up about it and let it slide?
Well no,Master Yi remake made a lot of noise and it wasn't even that much of a big deal
Just think what would happen if Riot decides to do something like..say..add an item like Dota "Blink Dagger"

Maybe then their "rally" power will be more useful than ruin our contest..with all thje petitions they would make

I'm 100% fine with counter-rallies, but this guy's going "VOTE STUFFING VOTE STUFFING CRUSH THE RALLY TO EXPOSE THE CONSPIRACY WAKE UP SHEEPLE" even after Allen confirmed there was no stuffing.


To be fair, I wouldn't trust SBAllen's "confirmation" if I watched him hand-count every vote, himself.
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#131 | creativename | Posted 8/23/2013 11:26:47 PM | message detail
LOL at anyone believing Allen's "confirmation". You have to be truly dense to deny mass stuffing. Just check out Lopen's analysis.

But why am I feeding the troll anyway.

-LusterSoldier- posted...
Because several users humiliated me for something I posted on Reddit, I have to redeem myself by taking part in any kind of activities that would stop the Reddit rallies.

Well I wouldn't worry about redemption, it's just that for all the whining, few will try to do anything.

The actual non-stuffing part of the rally was organized by a small group of very obsessed people, a group we easily outnumber. Getting people to take action is tough though.

Luckily Luster has the power of 100 mortal men!
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#132 | superange128 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:27:18 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
LaqOfInterest posted...
Nanis23 posted...
What? there is nothing wrong with caring about contests and trying to do a counter rally
For some people,those contests are hobby,just like video games are
What do you think,that if Riot does something stupid and it will ruin some people "hobby" do you think they will shut up about it and let it slide?
Well no,Master Yi remake made a lot of noise and it wasn't even that much of a big deal
Just think what would happen if Riot decides to do something like..say..add an item like Dota "Blink Dagger"

Maybe then their "rally" power will be more useful than ruin our contest..with all thje petitions they would make

I'm 100% fine with counter-rallies, but this guy's going "VOTE STUFFING VOTE STUFFING CRUSH THE RALLY TO EXPOSE THE CONSPIRACY WAKE UP SHEEPLE" even after Allen confirmed there was no stuffing.


To be fair, I wouldn't trust SBAllen's "confirmation" if I watched him hand-count every vote, himself.


you guys can overly speculate how "trustworthy" the fact that there weren't many/no actual proxy/cheated votes but his word is all you guys have unless you can prove without a doubt there was
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#133 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:30:42 PM | message detail | (edited)
Having 10k people online on the reddit in every moment makes those vote totals sound about right
The problem I get with this is just how many of them are brainless zombies and vote for Draven without caring at all about Ryu and X
tbh I really consider this the best "evidence" of stuffing...X getting like 1 out of 20 "rallied" votes just sounds..wrong
#134 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/23/2013 11:32:43 PM | message detail
From: Nanis23 | #133
The problem I get with this is just how many of them are brainless zombies and vote for Draven without caring at all about Ryu and X

All of them?
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#135 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/23/2013 11:40:01 PM | message detail
We need to transport the holy relics of Indonesian Banjo to Wyoming to nullify Draven's stuffing. When Draven fails to receive a single vote in Wyoming, SBAllen will realize he was horribly wrong and annihilate Draven voters to such an extent that you'll still be able to see the destruction when you close your eyes. He'll ban every account that voted Draven, then scour their usermaps and ban all related accounts. Then he'll hunt down any surviving accounts with posts on board 8 and ban them if they're using the same IP as any of the banned accounts. Then he'll check the usermaps of every banned account once a day for a week and ban any new accounts that show up. He'll announce a 1-on-1 no divisions-by-era games contest without League of Legends for early next year and allow Charles Barkley into the next character battle. All because of Indonesian Banjo. All we have to do is BELIEVE.

WHO'S WITH ME
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#136 | scaryice | Posted 8/23/2013 11:46:40 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
LOL at anyone believing Allen's "confirmation". You have to be truly dense to deny mass stuffing. Just check out Lopen's analysis.


Have you seen the predictions this Lopen guy makes on a daily basis?
#137 | tgs2 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:46:58 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Having 10k people online on the reddit in every moment makes those vote totals sound about right
The problem I get with this is just how many of them are brainless zombies and vote for Draven without caring at all about Ryu and X
tbh I really consider this the best "evidence" of stuffing...X getting like 1 out of 20 "rallied" votes just sounds..wrong


LoL has a large portion of it's fanbase that has never played anything other than MOBAs, much less things like a video game console so I would wait until the final to call them out for severe hiveminding as Mario should at least register in every gamer's head even if they didn't play a Mario game meanwhile casuals often mistake Zelda for Link.
#138 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:50:42 PM | message detail
And see, here I thought people just thought Bacon was dense, but now we're back to him being an outright liar.
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#139 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/23/2013 11:54:04 PM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Having 10k people online on the reddit in every moment makes those vote totals sound about right
The problem I get with this is just how many of them are brainless zombies and vote for Draven without caring at all about Ryu and X
tbh I really consider this the best "evidence" of stuffing...X getting like 1 out of 20 "rallied" votes just sounds..wrong


LoL has a large portion of it's fanbase that has never played anything other than MOBAs, much less things like a video game console so I would wait until the final to call them out for severe hiveminding as Mario should at least register in every gamer's head even if they didn't play a Mario game meanwhile casuals often mistake Zelda for Link.


Nothing will change. We already know this from when Valve rallied for Gordon Freeman in the Gamespot contest. Valve's rallied votes went to Gordon. Draven's rallied votes will go to Draven.
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#140 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 11:55:33 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I'm not talking about Jak, I'm talking about Ratchet. 2010 Ratchet actually ended up close to 2010 Altair's strength - he put on a very good showing that year. Altair dispatching him so easily this year despite a 'mascot' resurgence says good things about him.


The mascot resurgence is only for Spyro, Crash, and Lara. Post-PS1 Sony mascots have consistently put out bad performances this contest, and I'll cite the examples again at the risk of sounding like a broken record:

-Jak got only 55% on Chie Satonaka, who's from the game whose main character was blown out by Shadow.
-Ratchet not only did worse against Altair than the 2010 stats suggest, he also got only about 55% on Shulk, and other characters from Shulk's game were terrible fodder.
-Cole was much closer to Ragna the Bloodedge than we expected.
-Sly Cooper got blown out.
-Nathan Drake almost lost to Pac-Man.
-Kratos disappointed.
-Sackboy fell off a cliff.
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#141 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:56:09 PM | message detail
scaryice posted...
creativename posted...
LOL at anyone believing Allen's "confirmation". You have to be truly dense to deny mass stuffing. Just check out Lopen's analysis.


Have you seen the predictions this Lopen guy makes on a daily basis?


That's totally related
#142 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 11:57:29 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
I'm not talking about Jak, I'm talking about Ratchet. 2010 Ratchet actually ended up close to 2010 Altair's strength - he put on a very good showing that year. Altair dispatching him so easily this year despite a 'mascot' resurgence says good things about him.


I guess that really depends on where you expect the votes from Shulk to go.


I think it makes perfect sense for Ratchet to be weaker now than he was in 2010. In 2010 he was coming off of A Crack in Time, which many fans consider to be one of the best games in the series if not the best outright. Since then Ratchet has gotten All 4 One and Full Frontal Assault, neither of which was very well-received.
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#143 | AsurasKordoth | Posted 8/24/2013 12:01:24 AM | message detail
Not sure how anyone can remotely trust Allen after the Vincent debacle. "No other pic fit the guidelines". Really?
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#144 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/24/2013 12:03:34 AM | message detail
AsurasKordoth posted...
Not sure how anyone can remotely trust Allen after the Vincent debacle. "No other pic fit the guidelines". Really?


Did anyone actually submit a picture that did follow the guidelines?
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#145 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 12:08:28 AM | message detail
Btw
Lugia picture and quote are so fitting
Well the fact it is the second-weakest Pokemon in the contest and is up against Frog and Cloud...it's even more fitting
Third place 100%
#146 | creativename | Posted 8/24/2013 12:08:34 AM | message detail
The Owner of FF9 posted...
And see, here I thought people just thought Bacon was dense, but now we're back to him being an outright liar.

Who is calling him a liar? He's bad at math, he's not a liar.

Also yeah that whole Vincent debacle did cost him some cred. I see nothing special about the pic theme this round that any random Vincent face pic wouldn't have satisfied. Then he actually insults people complaining about the pic.

Now that has nothing whatsoever to do with Draven, but lots of people are frustrated with Allen and so you're probably just seeing some extra venting.
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#147 | creativename | Posted 8/24/2013 12:13:03 AM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
AsurasKordoth posted...
Not sure how anyone can remotely trust Allen after the Vincent debacle. "No other pic fit the guidelines". Really?


Did anyone actually submit a picture that did follow the guidelines?

The pics this round look like completely standard face pics to me.

And he accepted a pic that the maker openly admitted was pic sabotage - a pic everyone recognized as terrible instantly when they saw it. If nothing else, that shows poor judgement.

Also his abrasive reactions to complaints were wholly unnecessary.
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#148 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 12:16:10 AM | message detail
Im pretty much the biggest Mewtwo fan here and really wanted him to win over Vincent so if even I say that was clear pic-sabotage I think that's as objective as it can get!

Mewtwo would still have won though!!
#149 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 12:21:52 AM | message detail
lol the spread betting topic has Lugia at 27% and Frog at 21%
I still don't understand how it is predicted there
But Frog is the clear favorite over Lugia,no..?
#150 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 12:28:51 AM | message detail
Frog may get SFFed by Cloud.

...also that was probably made before the picture came out.
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