Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1127

#451 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/24/2013 1:30:25 PM | message detail
I would think very heavily about Kefka over Leon personally.
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#452 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/24/2013 1:32:24 PM | message detail
If Leon got that RE6 pic I would think about it
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#453 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 1:34:04 PM | message detail
I am not trying to disrespect Squall actually, I just think the line between Noble nine and not is more firm than it was 5-6 years ago in terms of ... steady people.

Like yeah MissingNo and Zard did some bad things, MissingNo directly, but they were bursts of flame and whatnot. I still walked away from 2010 being impressed by Crono simply because it took 90,000 votes in a 12 hour match for the glitch to put him down.

My %s aren't always right (see: almost never) but one of the things I've generally gotten right over the years is pegging the tail end of the noble nine in 1 on 1 matches. I just don't think Squall has the juice to beat Crono. It isn't a disrespect to Squall, I just think Crono's supposed steep decline is a bit of an illusion.

We'll see in a few days though.
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#454 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 8/24/2013 1:34:28 PM | message detail
Can't wait until next contetst where we all overestimate Kefka and he flops horribly. You know it will happen.
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#455 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 1:34:30 PM | message detail
Not to mention, 41% on 2010 Snake in a night match was a great performance, considering he would've finished higher if the match went 24 hours. It basically says Squall could break 40% indirectly on every Noble Niner other than Link (and in a night match he could possibly get lucky and manage it).
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#456 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 1:35:49 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
I just don't think Squall has the juice to beat Crono. It isn't a disrespect to Squall, I just think Crono's supposed steep decline is a bit of an illusion.


Well, it just means you have to think that Crono is the exception to the rule, in which case you might be red sox.
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#457 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/24/2013 1:35:50 PM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
Can't wait until next contetst where we all overestimate Kefka and he flops horribly. You know it will happen.


Hehehe.
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#458 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/24/2013 1:36:13 PM | message detail
If RE6 and DmC had awful effects..probably. I don't see how KEfka woudl al of a sudden be so strong. I mean he certainly wouldn't' beat Zelda. That's just silly.
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#459 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/24/2013 1:39:58 PM | message detail
That's also why I've said Crono is running a 2005 Snake-style Gauntlet: the similarities are striking. The consensus weakest member of the Noble Nine is set up with a division designed to exploit his weaknesses, to the point of being rigged against him. Getting past this division won't overcome any NNers or even the strongest non-Nobles (much like Snake in '05), but it'll go a long way toward validating Crono's strength if he can do it.
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#460 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/24/2013 1:40:00 PM | message detail
Actually that reminds me...we need a game battle that isn't seperated by Era. We would have so many interesting battles(that doesn't involve OoT)

FFVI vs RE4
Smash Bros Brawl vs Mario 64
Fallout 3 vs Chrono trigger
Skyrim vs FFVII
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#461 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 1:50:26 PM | message detail
Lara's lead under 100 now.
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#462 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/24/2013 1:53:04 PM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
Actually that reminds me...we need a game battle that isn't seperated by Era. We would have so many interesting battles(that doesn't involve OoT)

FFVI vs RE4
Smash Bros Brawl vs Mario 64
Fallout 3 vs Chrono trigger
Skyrim vs FFVII


My picks:

RE4
SM64
CT
FFVII

SM64
FFVII

FFVII

Those R1 matches and the entire FFVI/RE4/SSBB/SM64 fourpack is a good debate. F3 vs. CT also. The rest is predictable.
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#463 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 1:55:45 PM | message detail
And Lara says nope.jpg.
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#464 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 1:56:02 PM | message detail
Darn it, Altair. Stop tanking.
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#465 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 1:56:44 PM | message detail
Kefka lose some %, Altair tank some more, Lara pick it up.

Daddy needs his # 1 in oracle.
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#466 | pjbasis | Posted 8/24/2013 1:56:49 PM | message detail
When Europe goes to bed Altair is dead.

Because Ubisoft is french right
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#467 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 2:00:13 PM | message detail
Actually Lara is killing in Europe.

Stay up late, Euros
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#468 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/24/2013 2:04:09 PM | message detail | (edited)
Actually replace SM64 with SMW and FFVII with LttP. Skyrim would be closer to LttP's level. I think i overestimated Skyrim a bit, it's not way near 7's level. And SM64 would beat brawl 1v1 surely if MM beat it? I think having games 2-3 gens apart would be good.
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#469 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 2:10:40 PM | message detail
Also I just realized I have somehow managed to make it back onto the leaderboard.

Not going to ask.
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#470 | squexa | Posted 8/24/2013 2:14:21 PM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
Actually that reminds me...we need a game battle that isn't seperated by Era. We would have so many interesting battles(that doesn't involve OoT)

FFVI vs RE4
Smash Bros Brawl vs Mario 64
Fallout 3 vs Chrono trigger
Skyrim vs FFVII


FFVI
Mario 64
CT
FFVII

Mario 64
FFVII

FFVII


FFVII got this easily imo, but that's more because I dont think any of these games are top 5 contenders other than maaaaybe Skyrim (we have absolutely no idea how strong it is).

How about this bracket.


FFVII vs Brawl
Mario 3 vs Mario 64
LTTP vs MM
Melee vs Mario World

FFVI vs FFX
CT vs TP
FFVIII vs Skyrim
RBY vs Fallout 3
#471 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/24/2013 2:32:52 PM | message detail
So I wasn't entirely serious last night when I ranked Kefka as the 6th strongest FF character, but he's got a case for it, after Cloud, Sephiroth, Squall, Auron, and Tifa.

-Kefka beat Zack who beat Yuna badly in 2010.
-Kefka's beating Altair considerably worse than Vivi did.
-Vincent got 60% on KOS-MOS and might have even benefitted from LFF. Frog got 55.4% on KOS-MOS in 2008. Extrapolating through Bowser and making no adjustments, Kefka was worth 52% on Frog in 2010.
-Kefka's match against Bowser in 2010 and his matches so far this year were all DAY MATCHES. Frog/Bowser was a night match.
-Aeris got 42% on Squall in round 1 of 2007, 36% in round 2 probably thanks to Sora, and got 42% on Auron in 2010. Not bad but I'd say she didn't look good this year and Draven is going to mess with the validity of any comparison we can make through Shepard/Link.
-Kefka and FFVII seem to be heading in completely different directions: Kefka up, FFVII down.
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#472 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 2:34:11 PM | message detail
If you want to roll with Kefka > Vincent, have at it...!
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#473 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 2:36:01 PM | message detail
Altair is out for blood.

I think he has this based on the geomap.
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#474 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/24/2013 2:36:04 PM | message detail
Kefka definitely beats Vincent Vega, so I figure his chances there are 50-50 at worst!
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#475 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/24/2013 2:38:54 PM | message detail
Altair SHOULD finish 2nd here, but he's not in any hurry to win it.
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#476 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/24/2013 2:46:13 PM | message detail | (edited)
squexa posted...
The_Djoker posted...
Actually that reminds me...we need a game battle that isn't seperated by Era. We would have so many interesting battles(that doesn't involve OoT)

FFVI vs RE4
Smash Bros Brawl vs Mario 64
Fallout 3 vs Chrono trigger
Skyrim vs FFVII


FFVI
Mario 64
CT
FFVII

Mario 64
FFVII

FFVII


FFVII got this easily imo, but that's more because I dont think any of these games are top 5 contenders other than maaaaybe Skyrim (we have absolutely no idea how strong it is).

How about this bracket.


FFVII vs Brawl
Mario 3 vs Mario 64
LTTP vs MM
Melee vs Mario World

FFVI vs FFX
CT vs TP
FFVIII vs Skyrim
RBY vs Fallout 3




FF7> Brawl
SM64>SMB3
LttP>MM
SMW>Melee
FFX>FFVI
CT>TP
Skyrim>
RBY>Fallout 3

FFVII>SM64
LttP>Melee
FFX>CT close
RBY>Skyrim

FF7>LttP
RBY>FFX

FFVII>RBY

I think the reason i changed my mind on Skyrim/FFVII being a close match is that Skyrims popularity now compared to 2011 would have gone down a bit and I don't fancy it to threaten FFVII at all. In fact I would say Skyrim would be LttP/RBY level right now, which is the level below FFVII.

There's an argument for Pokemon Red/Blue/gReen being the 3rd strongest game(s) on the Site. Which I can completely understand.

Also some of those matchups are ridiculosuly close to call. Like SM64/SMB3. The melee/SMW match is also up in the air.
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#477 | pjbasis | Posted 8/24/2013 2:51:17 PM | message detail
Fight Lara, FIIIGHTTTT
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#478 | Sorozone | Posted 8/24/2013 2:56:10 PM | message detail
Altair needs to quit being a bum.
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#479 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/24/2013 2:57:45 PM | message detail
Third? I think RBY should be given at least a small chance at being second!

Before Trainers > Cloud/Sephiroth I would've taken RBY > FFVII as a stupid but maybe possible upset that wins you the contest if it goes off. I feel like too many people would go for it after seeing Rivalry Rumble though, therefore ruining its value, and FFVII should still be favored for second anyways.
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#480 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/24/2013 3:09:48 PM | message detail
lol Rivalry? the same contest that had Mario/Bowser pull a higher % on link/ganon than Cloud/seph? yeah I wouldn't take any notice of that terrble contest tbh.

And yeah RBY/FFVII would be in the 55-45 range possibly lower. But in all honesty, FFVII is still a incredibly strong game despite what anyone believes.
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#481 | scaryice | Posted 8/24/2013 3:23:41 PM | message detail | (edited)
Man, I originally had Kefka in my bracket here before changing it to Altair. I wanted to hedge my bets a little bit, since I figured Kefka was probably gonna lose in round 1 anyway. Still nice to see him win though.
#482 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/24/2013 3:32:27 PM | message detail | (edited)
Assuming Draven beats Link 55-35-10,how much % does Mewtwo need to have on Draven to make Chester above Mega Man X in the xstats?
Or it's impossible to calculate without knowing the Mewtwo Sonic Bowser match? In that case,throw a close victory for Mewtwo..like,40-40-20
#483 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 3:47:02 PM | message detail
"Oh hey, I was supposed to be cutting, right?"
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#484 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 3:52:50 PM | message detail
75 minutes later Altair brings it back down to 75.

I said then that Lara was doomed. Any time now, Lara!
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#485 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/24/2013 3:53:57 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
"Oh hey, I was supposed to be cutting, right?"


I know, right? I just want to grab him by the shoulders and shake him. "STOP DICKING AROUND AND TAKE THE LEAD ALREADY!!!"
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#486 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 3:54:14 PM | message detail
I think this match is taking place when Altair has a hangover. He'll occasionally wake up, score some votes, then sink back into a drunken stupor.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#487 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/24/2013 3:55:20 PM | message detail
LAY OFF THE BOOZE, ALTAIR
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#488 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 3:55:43 PM | message detail
Altair. You're drunk. Go home.
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#489 | Achromatic | Posted 8/24/2013 4:01:19 PM | message detail
75 vote barrier shattered!

(I actually have Lara here but I like close matches so)
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#490 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/24/2013 4:10:54 PM | message detail
The best thing about Draven destroying this contest is Chie xstats.
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#491 | Calintares | Posted 8/24/2013 4:10:58 PM | message detail
Whatever happened to Kefka? does he have any reason to boost like this?
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#492 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/24/2013 4:14:21 PM | message detail
Calintares posted...
Whatever happened to Kefka? does he have any reason to boost like this?


Pretty sure the boost is directly related to Dissidia, and indirectly related to the fact that he now has offical artwork that isn't Lettuce Kefka or the ugly clown from the PS1 port.
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#493 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/24/2013 4:16:27 PM | message detail
Votes per update stats are so irrelevant in neck and neck matches. The votals are too volatile and the lack of any trends means they're literally just plotting random variation and that's all we've had. Outside of Draven we haven't had a single comeback and once that started, their was 0 value in working out if it was gonna stick.
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#494 | ZFS | Posted 8/24/2013 4:17:48 PM | message detail
Kefka over Vincent seems a bit much, unless that match was actually indicative of the severe decline he's had in three years. Kefka, and FFVI, or at least Terra, have looked considerably better lately.
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#495 | Calintares | Posted 8/24/2013 4:22:59 PM | message detail
If we had a new villains contest, what would be the biggest changes from '05 and what new faces would make waves?

Also, how does the finals go down?
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#496 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/24/2013 4:26:45 PM | message detail
Looks like Altair finally got his s*** together.
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#497 | Qwaar | Posted 8/24/2013 4:27:15 PM | message detail
OK, you've given it a good go, Altair. Now stop.
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#498 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/24/2013 4:41:05 PM | message detail
He took your advice.

Dumb drunk...
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#499 | pjbasis | Posted 8/24/2013 4:43:52 PM | message detail
Draven can't make anyone look worse than Chester unless he loses a match.
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#500 | pjbasis | Posted 8/24/2013 4:44:07 PM | message detail