Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1127

#1 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/23/2013 9:07:36 PM | message detail
Yeah, so it seems like Epona doesn't have the natural strength to stand up to GlaDOS even if Ike wasn't in this match.

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~*Character Contest Histories*~
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~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

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~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
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~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 8/23/2013 9:07:59 PM | message detail
Oh well.
#3 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:08:03 PM | message detail
At this point I don't blame LFF
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 86/105 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ryu Hayabusa
#4 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 9:08:06 PM | message detail
Poor, poor, poor Mordin. :(
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#5 | pjbasis | Posted 8/23/2013 9:08:14 PM | message detail
#6 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/23/2013 9:08:18 PM | message detail
GlaDOS is awesome, best videogame villain I've ever seem.
#7 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/23/2013 9:08:30 PM | message detail
Eh, was hoping this would at least be exciting, but looks done now.
#8 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/23/2013 9:08:44 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
98------1------------100.00
97------0------------0.00
96------1------------100.00
95------4------------100.00
94------4------------100.00
93------18----------100.00
92------54----------100.00
91------65----------100.00
90------67----------100.00
89------80----------100.00
88------87----------100.00
87------109--------100.00
86------110--------98.18
85------124--------98.39
84------121--------99.17
83------168--------97.62
82------220--------97.27
81------235--------97.02
80------293--------96.59
79------364--------96.15
78------437--------93.14
77------465--------96.34
76------531--------93.79
75------552--------94.75
74------634--------91.32
73------642--------91.59
72------627--------89.63
71------677--------89.96
70------668--------87.13
69------609--------86.21
68------618--------84.95
67------529--------85.63
66------568--------82.57
65------469--------82.52
64------463--------76.46
63------398--------78.39
62------338--------73.67
61------379--------68.60
60------305--------70.82
59------275--------66.18
58------233--------65.24
57------266--------63.91
56------215--------58.60
55------211--------56.87
54------213--------57.28
53------166--------53.01
52------154--------51.95
51------186--------50.00
50------119--------38.66
49------119--------47.06
48------110--------42.73
47------100--------40.00
46------81----------29.63
45------90----------44.44
44------73----------38.36
43------77----------35.06
42------64----------35.94
41------56----------32.14
40------52----------28.85
39------43----------27.91
38------40----------30.00
37------38----------34.21
36------22----------27.27
35------20----------35.00
34------23----------21.74
33------27----------22.22
32------22----------18.18
31------13----------38.46
30------12----------16.67
29------8------------0.00
28------13----------7.69
27------8------------12.50
26------4------------50.00
25------11----------0.00
24------2------------0.00
23------3------------0.00
22------3------------0.00
21------2------------0.00
20------4------------0.00
19------2------------0.00
18------1------------0.00
17------2------------0.00
16------0------------0.00
15------0------------0.00
14------1------------0.00
13------4------------0.00
12------0------------0.00
11------1------------0.00
10------13----------0.00
9--------1------------0.00
8--------1------------0.00
7--------0------------0.00
6--------1------------0.00
5--------5------------0.00
4--------0------------0.00
3--------6------------0.00
2--------3------------0.00
1--------1------------0.00

Sky high prediction percentages as expected. Top 490 get the match right. -35 (73 points) and better stay above 90.

No one fell off the Top 49.
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#9 | pjbasis | Posted 8/23/2013 9:08:55 PM | message detail
guess Niko really does suck
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#10 | vcharon | Posted 8/23/2013 9:08:56 PM | message detail
Very little gain on Ike in what you would imagine is Epona's very best time.
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#11 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/23/2013 9:08:56 PM | message detail
Damn you Ike
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#12 | Lopen | Posted 8/23/2013 9:09:04 PM | message detail
Ike vs Epona might be interesting but Ike is probably going to blow past her soon
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#13 | tgs2 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:09:19 PM | message detail
Ike/Protoman the modern day Shadow/Tidus? Glados is absolutely destroying this match which is delightful.
#14 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/23/2013 9:09:30 PM | message detail
I liked the Epona rally and all, but GLaDOS is too good for me to abandon her.
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#15 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 9:09:31 PM | message detail
Does Europe favor a horse or a swordsman

Stay tuned
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#16 | Lopen | Posted 8/23/2013 9:09:58 PM | message detail
In fact if I had to bet I'm thinking Ike ends up closer to GlaDOS than Epona when this match finishes. He may even make a match out of it.
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#17 | ZFS | Posted 8/23/2013 9:10:10 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Poor, poor, poor Mordin. :(


Bad character being weak sounds good!

(So much for the ME fanbase caring about Mordin.)
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#18 | FFDragon | Posted 8/23/2013 9:10:32 PM | message detail
why are we supporting a disguster topic
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#19 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/23/2013 9:10:34 PM | message detail
Can't wait to see Glados gobble up all the percentage those two Ninty characters bleed all night
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#20 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 9:10:41 PM | message detail
GlaDOS has very, very clearly boosted from Portal 2. We should've seen this coming from when she did very well in Rivalry Rumble despite an obvious anchor in Chell.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#21 | pjbasis | Posted 8/23/2013 9:11:24 PM | message detail
Gonna lose all my points
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#22 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:11:29 PM | message detail
Ike almost cutting
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 86/105 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ryu Hayabusa
#23 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/23/2013 9:11:38 PM | message detail
Good work, -DisgusterStuffer-

Mordin confirmed for straight raw ASS tier :(
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#24 | vcharon | Posted 8/23/2013 9:11:59 PM | message detail
Ike coming on now, Epona's lead probably won't get above 75.
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#25 | FFDragon | Posted 8/23/2013 9:12:27 PM | message detail
Mordin was always going to be the weakest of the ME support that got in though.
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#26 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 9:12:28 PM | message detail
Mordin is confirmed for 'gets 60-40d by an Ike equivalent' tier. That's not completely awful, really.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#27 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/23/2013 9:12:33 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
GlaDOS has very, very clearly boosted from Portal 2. We should've seen this coming from when she did very well in Rivalry Rumble despite an obvious anchor in Chell.


I didn't think Portal 2 was that popular. It didn't seem as memetic and talked about as the first game.

But it is an awesome game. So yeah, GlaDOS deserves the win.
#28 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:12:42 PM | message detail
Oh well. Seems like it is really up to POKEMON to defend Nintendo's honor this contest.
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#29 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:12:58 PM | message detail
Epona = Groose
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POKEFEAR
#30 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:13:41 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Highest Day Individual Votes
1. Solid Snake – Round 1 – 23261
2. Mario – Round 1 – 20759
3. Sonic the Hedgehog – Round 1 – 20669
4. Crono – Round 1 – 20077
5. Luigi – Round 1 – 19844
6. Bowser – Round 1 – 18778
7. Raiden – Round 1 – 18775
8. L-Block – Round 1 – 18468
9. Ryu – Round 1 – 18376
10. Solid Snake – Round 2 – 18191
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 86/105 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ryu Hayabusa
#31 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/23/2013 9:13:43 PM | message detail
Rarely does it feel this bad to get a match right. I was completely wrong about this.

I just can't get a handle on the Zelda fanbase. They are an amazing bunch.
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#32 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/23/2013 9:13:59 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Mordin is confirmed for 'gets 60-40d by an Ike equivalent' tier. That's not completely awful, really.


When you say "gets 60-40d by Proto Man" it doesn't sound as good, though. Ike has clearly dropped since we last saw him.
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#33 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 9:14:19 PM | message detail
FFDragon posted...
Mordin was always going to be the weakest of the ME support that got in though.


Oh, no doubt. Garrus and Wrex are gonna be quite good, as they've already demonstrated. Though I don't have much high hopes for Wrex punching through, that's gonna be probably more because of Red's natural strength.

Prove me wrong and break my bracket though, Wrexy!
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#34 | WhiteLens | Posted 8/23/2013 9:14:19 PM | message detail
Whelp, I out of the guru
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#35 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:14:58 PM | message detail
GlaDOS has very, very clearly boosted from Portal 2. We should've seen this coming from when she did very well in Rivalry Rumble despite an obvious anchor in Chell.

There's a reason why she was the favourite in the guru
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 86/105 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ryu Hayabusa
#36 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 9:14:58 PM | message detail
*Looks at poll*

Wat

On a more serious note, I'm going to lose a lot of points on this match, but I'm willing to lose them for GlaDOS to pull first place.
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#37 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 9:15:00 PM | message detail
If Ike gets 2nd, I'm moving on up in the world. Come on Ike, daddy needs those points.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#38 | pjbasis | Posted 8/23/2013 9:15:47 PM | message detail
Can't complain too much about Nintendo losing
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#39 | FFDragon | Posted 8/23/2013 9:16:04 PM | message detail
ZeldaTPLink posted...
I didn't think Portal 2 was that popular. It didn't seem as memetic and talked about as the first game.


space, potato, murdered me, everything cave johnson said

There wasn't one 'cake is a lie' but there were a lot of things people ran into the ground from Portal 2.
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#40 | Lopen | Posted 8/23/2013 9:16:12 PM | message detail
Protoman seemed legit enough in 2010. 30% on Snake isn't that bad.
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#41 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 9:16:16 PM | message detail
DAMNIT IKE
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#42 | pjbasis | Posted 8/23/2013 9:16:23 PM | message detail
#43 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 9:16:36 PM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Mordin is confirmed for 'gets 60-40d by an Ike equivalent' tier. That's not completely awful, really.


When you say "gets 60-40d by Proto Man" it doesn't sound as good, though. Ike has clearly dropped since we last saw him.


I don't... what?

Ike (2010c) has a strength of 26.54 against Base Link.
Proto Man (2010c) has a strength of 25.72 against Base Link.

Ike 51.54% 26,707
Proto Man 48.46% 25,106
TOTAL VOTES 51,812
Ike wins with 51.54% of the vote!

Looks like he's performing as expected, to me.
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#44 | FFDragon | Posted 8/23/2013 9:16:44 PM | message detail
Oh and of course, "This is that Part"
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#45 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:16:52 PM | message detail
If Ike gets 2nd, I'm moving on up in the world. Come on Ike, daddy needs those points.

Nah, I took Ike > Epona for second which means Epona has this.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 86/105 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ryu Hayabusa
#46 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/23/2013 9:16:54 PM | message detail
GlaDOS was the favorite, but I don't think anyone expected this level of domination. How well does GlaDOS have to do in order for Cole + Ragna = Mordin + Niko?
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#47 | pjbasis | Posted 8/23/2013 9:17:03 PM | message detail
I have not heard of any of those FFD
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#48 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/23/2013 9:17:41 PM | message detail | (edited)
KamikazePotato posted...
If Ike gets 2nd, I'm moving on up in the world. Come on Ike, daddy needs those points.



KamikazePotato posted...
DAMNIT IKE


Charmander Curse in effect
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#49 | pjbasis | Posted 8/23/2013 9:17:34 PM | message detail
Oh hey, I like Ragna and Cole too so also good news for them!
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#50 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/23/2013 9:17:56 PM | message detail
Well, right about first place for expert, but I don't really care about that since falling off the leaderboard. Horribly wrong in my bracket (Ike).
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