Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1126

#301 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 11:28:46 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
38% on Ryu H 2010 isn't that bad. Hayabusa's underrated in that year. He just fell off a cliff this contest because NG3 arguably killed his entire series in one fell swoop.

Crash doesn't lose to Elizabeth 1v1, at any rate.


Oh, I agree on both fronts. I had Hayabusa > Chief in 2010 after all (LOL XBox SFF).

But I wouldn't give Crash more than 35% on Kirby directly, I think.
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#302 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 11:30:52 AM | message detail
Two contests in a row with Crash being stuck behind SFF in the stats.
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#303 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/23/2013 11:31:03 AM | message detail
If quote factor exists, GlaDOS could overperform. Her quote is hilarious.
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#304 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/23/2013 11:31:15 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
X-Stats:

Kirby – 50.00%
Terra Branford – 44.04%
Elizabeth – 32.31%
Crash Bandicoot – 32.10%
Wheatley – 29.74%
Poison – 28.68%
Princess Peach – 26.80%
Thrall – 24.59%
Tommy Vercetti – 20.96%

Kirby's prediction percentage was 44.93%


What I find mildly interesting from those is that it basically makes Elizabeth = 2k10 Drake.
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#305 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 11:31:52 AM | message detail
Makes sense.
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#306 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:32:37 AM | message detail
I think Magikarp could catch a joke-bandwagon and be a huge threat if he wasn't against Mega Man of all things
#307 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:33:32 AM | message detail
Looks like these results point to Crono > Snake > Link > Cloud

That looks good to me!
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#308 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 11:33:49 AM | message detail
If anyone's gonna be helped by the quotes next match, it's gonna be Epona. It's so stupid and out of place that it's guaranteed to get some joke votes.
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#309 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:33:54 AM | message detail
Lucario did 0.03% better against Altair than Shulk did this contest. I think 33% on Altair makes you fodder without question, but yeah.

To be fair Altair in 2008 is probably stronger than Altair in 2013
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#310 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/23/2013 11:34:03 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
The funny thing is that we totally wrote Lucario off after that performance and we've never seen a whiff of him since.

But in hindsight, Lucario's probably a low midcarder.


Lucario did 0.03% better against Altair than Shulk did this contest. I think 33% on Altair makes you fodder without question, but yeah.


...Did LMS just make a salient point? I was going to say that I'm not entirely sure; coming in second to Altair in round 1 turned out to be nothing to be ashamed of (a fact that we didn't know at the time because Altair was a newcomer as well), but the next round when Lucario finished last and LFFed Marth into 3rd place, Altair finished a close second to Duke Nukem.

I mean, kudos to Lucario; he provided a strong enough LFF presence to knock Marth out when Marth had finished first in his R1 match. But seriously, this is Duke Nukem we're talking about here.
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#311 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 11:34:37 AM | message detail
No, he didn't.

LMS has no concept of how stats actually work.
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#312 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 11:36:22 AM | message detail
...I wonder if Snake's going to catch fire against Alucard with the ASV. That's kind of a scary thing to think about.
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#313 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:36:42 AM | message detail
But I wouldn't give Crash more than 35% on Kirby directly, I think.

That's pretty good for Wheatley IMO.
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#314 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/23/2013 11:36:43 AM | message detail
Damn you Bayonetta
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#315 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 11:37:54 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
But I wouldn't give Crash more than 35% on Kirby directly, I think.

That's pretty good for Wheatley IMO.


That's the upper limit of what I'm willing to allow. I dunno if I'd actually give him that much.

But yeah, either way, Wheatley looks like he's on the same level of 2010 GlaDOS.
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#316 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 11:38:07 AM | message detail
#317 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 11:42:34 AM | message detail | (edited)
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Greyfeld posted...
Considering the overall strength of western, casual-bait protagonists, I think that doubling Cole gets beat by doubling Niko and beating Protoman.


I hope you're taking into account that Niko is also a "western, casual-bait protagonist".


Yes, but his game is a little older, and GTA has a larger following than Infamous.

And unlike Cole who got paired up with "Ragna the who, now?", Niko got stuck behind a Mass Effect character and still managed to pull off a decent percentage.
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#318 | tgs2 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:42:34 AM | message detail
Niko is arguably the weakest GTA character if you don't take into account RacistFAQs. I'd take Cole to beat Niko albeit barely.
#319 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 11:43:53 AM | message detail
If Cole = Niko indirectly, GlaDOS doesn't even need LFF to beat Epona.
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#320 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 11:46:09 AM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
Niko is arguably the weakest GTA character if you don't take into account RacistFAQs. I'd take Cole to beat Niko albeit barely.


So would I, I'm just saying that Glados' performance on Cole isn't really indicative of much, considering Epona didn't do much worse on Niko, with Mordin sucking up votes.
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#321 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/23/2013 11:47:03 AM | message detail
#322 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:48:59 AM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
Niko is arguably the weakest GTA character if you don't take into account RacistFAQs. I'd take Cole to beat Niko albeit barely.


I know you are talking about CJ but my god Tenpanny was legendary(and yes RacistFAQs on him too)
Too bad,he actually was a good character
#323 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/23/2013 11:50:23 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
If you assume 2010 Kirby = 2013 Kirby anyway.


Rarely is it a good idea to assume that any character is constant. The trick is trying to determine how they've changed.

And with 3.5 years since the last contest, there's even more reason for strengths to have changed.
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#324 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/23/2013 11:53:58 AM | message detail
There is no way Niko would lose to Cole. Cole is legendarily bad.
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#325 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 11:54:05 AM | message detail
#326 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/23/2013 12:00:48 PM | message detail
Dayum, MGS characters should be tested for performance-enhancing drugs after this match.
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#327 | im317 | Posted 8/23/2013 12:11:59 PM | message detail
Lara, Kefka and Altair who wins? i honestly don't know where anyone finishes in that match.
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#328 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 12:12:10 PM | message detail
I would say next match is in the top 5 list of this contest "hardest to predict" matches
And by "hardest to predict" I mean matches when it's impossible to know which character finish first AND last

1.Kefka,Zack,Ryu
2.Epona,Ike,GlaDOS
3.Groose,Lu Bu,Yoshimtsu
gap!
4.Tiny Tina,Tharja,Juliet
another gap!
5.Catherina,Vaas,Neku

Ignoring special upsets like Wrex and round 2 Draven
#329 | pjbasis | Posted 8/23/2013 12:13:22 PM | message detail
Kirby got no chance next round

Kirby - 4.36’
Terra - 3.43’
Elizabeth - 2.08’
Crash - 2.06’
Wheatley - 1.78’
Poison - 1.66’
Peach - 1.60’
Thrall - 1.28’
Vercetti - 1.00’
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#330 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/23/2013 12:15:34 PM | message detail
im317 posted...
Lara, Kefka and Altair who wins? i honestly don't know where anyone finishes in that match.


I would like to say Kefka based on round 1 performances but... it's Kefka. You never know
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#331 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/23/2013 12:17:50 PM | message detail | (edited)
LinkMarioSamus posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
Being from pokemon isn't worth much on its own if nobody cares about you. Heck, a certain SOMEONE got into Brawl and then this happened:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3247

So close, Isaac! So close!


Well that was before we knew that this site was all Pokecrazy, but yeah you have a point.

I was just curious to ask: How weak do you guys think Gene, Sam Gideon, and Jack Cayman (main characters of God Hand, Vanquish, and MadWorld respectively) would all be if they ever set foot into a contest?


I think all three would be pretty weak.
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#332 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 12:17:08 PM | message detail
Snake now putting in updates where he's practically doubling 'card/Bayo combined. I really wish we could have a clean Link/Mario/Samus v Snake match just to put this Nintendo rSFF thing to bed. He doesn't even get that much of his strength from Brawl anymore, he's wayyyy stronger than he was in 2006. Dude lost to a Sephiroth being SFFed by Cloud that year!
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#333 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 12:18:49 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
Being from pokemon isn't worth much on its own if nobody cares about you. Heck, a certain SOMEONE got into Brawl and then this happened:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3247

So close, Isaac! So close!


Well that was before we knew that this site was all Pokecrazy, but yeah you have a point.

I was just curious to ask: How weak do you guys think Gene, Sam Gideon, and Jack Cayman (main characters of God Hand, Vanquish, and MadWorld respectively) would all be if they ever set foot into a contest?


I think all three would be pretty weak.


I wonder how much of Board 8 has even heard of those characters.
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#334 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 12:18:53 PM | message detail
im317 posted...
Lara, Kefka and Altair who wins? i honestly don't know where anyone finishes in that match.


I think Kefka's going to take it. Lara Croft and Altair both fall in the "western protagonists" casual-bait category that's been falling off a cliff this contest. Lara will pull second because she has more games and she's overall the more popular character, and Altair will come in last because he's a new-generation character and hasn't had a game in a few years.
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#335 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 12:19:26 PM | message detail
Guru's watch!
119 got GlaDOS
40 got Ike
82 got Epona

1 got Robotnik! (lol)

Anyway,yeah the gurus favored Epona..but I believe most of them would change it after Epona round 1 performance?
#336 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/23/2013 12:19:54 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
Being from pokemon isn't worth much on its own if nobody cares about you. Heck, a certain SOMEONE got into Brawl and then this happened:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3247

So close, Isaac! So close!


Well that was before we knew that this site was all Pokecrazy, but yeah you have a point.

I was just curious to ask: How weak do you guys think Gene, Sam Gideon, and Jack Cayman (main characters of God Hand, Vanquish, and MadWorld respectively) would all be if they ever set foot into a contest?


I think all three would be pretty weak.


I wonder how much of Board 8 has even heard of those characters.


I've heard of Gene, but not the other two.
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#337 | pjbasis | Posted 8/23/2013 12:23:11 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...

Anyway,yeah the gurus favored Epona..but I believe most of them would change it after Epona round 1 performance?


uh why
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#338 | swirIdude | Posted 8/23/2013 12:26:40 PM | message detail
If anything, everyone is abandoning Ike and Glados to get on Epona's saddle after their Round 1 matches.

Which makes no sense; those Round 1 matches didn't really tell us anything.
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#339 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 12:30:51 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Snake now putting in updates where he's practically doubling 'card/Bayo combined. I really wish we could have a clean Link/Mario/Samus v Snake match just to put this Nintendo rSFF thing to bed. He doesn't even get that much of his strength from Brawl anymore, he's wayyyy stronger than he was in 2006. Dude lost to a Sephiroth being SFFed by Cloud that year!


Yeah, it's pretty amazing how stubbornly people have been holding onto Snake getting Nintendo sapped because of that Samus match back in 2006, especially considering we've moved past the point where we even think that's what happened.
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#340 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 12:40:43 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Nanis23 posted...

Anyway,yeah the gurus favored Epona..but I believe most of them would change it after Epona round 1 performance?


uh why


I..don't know?
Maybe because I expected her to be the Zelda version of Missingno and anything less than 60% in the first round I would consider bad?
But it's just that I feel...not many people here support her,most notatbly KH by calling her a "horse" every now and then
Also her round 1 crew prediction doubted her,but it was agreed that she will win over fodder just because she is from Zelda

Of course,Groose and Wrex happened so maybe she really got some strength after all
I really don't know and im confusef
#341 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/23/2013 12:41:43 PM | message detail
Man, Alucard is just dying now that we're past his awesome morning vote!
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#342 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 12:43:18 PM | message detail
swirIdude posted...
If anything, everyone is abandoning Ike and Glados to get on Epona's saddle after their Round 1 matches.

Which makes no sense; those Round 1 matches didn't really tell us anything.


I'm guessing that people think Epona looks great for the numbers she put on Mordin after how well the other ME characters faired in round one. Thing is, Mordin is the weakest character from their lineup, so there's no telling exactly where he should have fallen in that match. Not sure going 60-40 on Niko is worth all that much, personally.

I think Ike looks like a strong contender for first place after beating Protoman and Robotnik.
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#343 | im317 | Posted 8/23/2013 12:49:42 PM | message detail
cracked the top 1000 in expert, not bad considering i picked chalk for the first 31 matches before i actually started paying attention to it. im up to 176 from 40 at the start
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#344 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 1:00:01 PM | message detail
Looking closer at the xstats, it's showing Ike over Niko at 64%. Since Epona's match had her 70-30 over Niko, I'm curious how much of that is influenced by Mordin, how much is influenced by the lower votals for this contest, and how much is legitimate strength.
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#345 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 1:02:36 PM | message detail
Niko's probably weaker now, too.
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#346 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/23/2013 1:05:40 PM | message detail
Not sure why people are considering Epona a joke character all of a sudden. While she obviously isn't on Yoshi's level by any stretch of the imagination, I think her type of appeal is similar. They're the "noble steeds" that bring back nostalgic memories, and made their debuts in arguably the most beloved games of their respective series.

I'm not saying she's a lock to win. I could see her winning by a decent margin, putting on an unimpressive third-place performance, or anywhere in between. But people certainly aren't just voting for a horse and/or a joke.
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#347 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/23/2013 1:07:24 PM | message detail
Also, MGS has seriously been blowing me away all contest. My jaw hit the floor when The Boss kept it close with Sub-Zero, and this is just as impressive. Alucard is no joke.
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#348 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 1:07:53 PM | message detail
Nah, Epona and Yoshi aren't really that comparable.
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#349 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/23/2013 1:07:58 PM | message detail
We've also got this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3246

Marth got 57% on Niko, Ike > Marth, and it's pretty much guaranteed Niko has completely plummeted since.
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#350 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/23/2013 1:08:51 PM | message detail
The closer we get the more fearful I am of oats and her power. She's gonna school Ike and I'm not sure if GlaDOS has the strength to handle that. The WCC match was definitely not a good omen, and neither was Luigi coming so close to saying "F***-A you, wahoo!" to Nintendo LFF and winning anyway.
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