Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1126

#251 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 10:38:28 AM | message detail
Ike is a Tales character

What
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#252 | swirIdude | Posted 8/23/2013 10:38:44 AM | message detail
Glados/Ike/Epona is a great match because you can argue for any order and it would make sense.

Hopefully the match itself is as good as the debate.
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SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#253 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:38:48 AM | message detail
So, Isaac > Bayonetta. Discuss
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#254 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 10:40:12 AM | message detail
Bayonetta might be having her casual appeal crushed a bit by Snake, but Isaac's always been surprisingly good. He's really underrated.
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#255 | Achromatic | Posted 8/23/2013 10:40:58 AM | message detail
Anyway let's see if my "common sense" meter will win:

I would take Ike to beat any of the four opponents the others had worse than they did.

But Epona overlaps a bit with that whole nintendo thing.

So glados > ike > epona.
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#256 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/23/2013 10:41:37 AM | message detail
Isaac looked pretty impressive in 2010 so it's not all that surprising. Would you take Bayonetta to break 40% on L-Block. I know i won't.
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#257 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 10:43:02 AM | message detail
I have GlaDOS but I'm not at all confident in it. I'd be much more nervous if it meant anything vis-a-vis me winning the contest, but all it'll mean is I'll stay up in the top ten a little longer.
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#258 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:43:08 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Discussions like this remind me why Snake is my favorite contest character, even beyond just being my preference overall. Sure, for strength you can't beat Link or CAN you. But Snake? I remember people from this very topic once arguing that Snake couldn't beat Magus, the guy Snake's nerd sidekick just put 42% on. Out of all the elites, he's come the furthest.


Wow Magus so overrated
I'm pretty glad that now no one counts on him anymore and his match against Snake's nerd sidekick was debateable

I still wonder,why was Magus hyped to be Link-Killer in 2003?
Mario beat Crono in 2002,and Link beat Mario
Why would Magus,who is weaker than Crono,was supposed to beat Link?
(unless people thought that Magus would be stronger to Crono and I answered my own question)
#259 | swirIdude | Posted 8/23/2013 10:43:13 AM | message detail
Ike did about as expected on Protoman, and I'd take Protoman over the opponents of Glados and Epona. So for Ike to lose, either Epona needs to LFF him to a large degree, Mordin and Niko need to be stronger than we give them credit for, or Protoman has fallen off since his last appearance (which is clearly possible and makes me uneasy).
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SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#260 | swordz9 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:44:11 AM | message detail
Snake's picture is so shadowy I can't see any of his face aside from his nose and lips.
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#261 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:48:02 AM | message detail
Speaking of "favorite contest characters" for me it's Crono hands down.

The arc of that guy is just incredible.

The Mario/Crono saga is obvious but then you just get into a bunch of increasingly sad situations for him and I just can't help but root for him every time as he tries to cling to his old legacy while you keep having all these unfortunate results pile up and now it's come down all the way to Pikachu.

I will always root for Crono no matter the situation because he's just provided some of my favorite contest moments and man that arc. I always feel so bad for him! Mario/Crono II, Vincent, Missingno, it just never ends!
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#262 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 10:48:26 AM | message detail
It's actually a very cool MGS1 render of Snake (I've played around with it for test match pictures), but it's not ideal for face shots. I still kinda like it.

http://www.metalgearsolid.be/images/solid-snake-metal-gear-solid-the-legacy-collection-s.jpg
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#263 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:49:26 AM | message detail
Back in 2003 Magus was thought to be stronger than Crono because we didn't know any better and, "Ask anyone who has played CT and they're going to like Magus more than Crono. I mean, come on!"
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#264 | swordz9 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:49:35 AM | message detail
It's not a bad image. It's just so dark that I can't tell if Snake is wearing the headband over his eyes or above them. I assume above them, but I don't even see his eyes anywhere.
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#265 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 10:51:06 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Discussions like this remind me why Snake is my favorite contest character, even beyond just being my preference overall. Sure, for strength you can't beat Link or CAN you. But Snake? I remember people from this very topic once arguing that Snake couldn't beat Magus, the guy Snake's nerd sidekick just put 42% on. Out of all the elites, he's come the furthest.


Wow Magus so overrated
I'm pretty glad that now no one counts on him anymore and his match against Snake's nerd sidekick was debateable

I still wonder,why was Magus hyped to be Link-Killer in 2003?
Mario beat Crono in 2002,and Link beat Mario
Why would Magus,who is weaker than Crono,was supposed to beat Link?
(unless people thought that Magus would be stronger to Crono and I answered my own question)


People were expecting Magus/Crono to be a beatdown of equal or greater proportions to Link>Mario. And since, for all intents and purposes, Mario=Crono, Link/Magus was expected to be the best match ever.
#266 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:51:30 AM | message detail
I feel if GlaDOS does not win it will be because one of the Nintendo characters pulled off SFF
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#267 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 10:51:47 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Ike is a Tales character

What


Woops, Fire Emblem, not Tales lol.
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#268 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/23/2013 10:52:07 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
It's not a bad image. It's just so dark that I can't tell if Snake is wearing the headband over his eyes or above them. I assume above them, but I don't even see his eyes anywhere.


Then there's probably something wrong with your monitor... or your eyes >_>
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#269 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/23/2013 10:52:32 AM | message detail
Yeah, Isaac's not terrible, he's likely around the fodder-line. One of these days he's going to get a debatable match, people are going to get burned by Golden Sun again, and the reaction is once again going to be hilarious.
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#270 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 10:53:14 AM | message detail
Yeah, like I said it's not ideal. I just really like MGS1 Snake (and consider it favorable to strength as it's by far the strongest game) so I always approve of whenever MGS1 renders are used.

I'd really like to use the Snake in the top third of this but I can't find the original, eh:

http://dmpmnxvfdwr3.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/main-metal-gear-solid-legacy-collection-e1369031514837.jpg
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#271 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:54:15 AM | message detail
Yeah, Isaac's not terrible, he's likely around the fodder-line. One of these days he's going to get a debatable match, people are going to get burned by Golden Sun again, and the reaction is once again going to be hilarious.

Isaac vs. one of the GTA5 guys
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Points: 85/105 Today's Picks: Kirby and Solid Snake
#272 | swirIdude | Posted 8/23/2013 10:55:17 AM | message detail
The GTA5 guys are going to be even weaker than Vercetti and Niko simply because they're an ensemble cast. That's gonna be a casual bracketmaker disaster.
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SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#273 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:57:47 AM | message detail
swirIdude posted...
The GTA5 guys are going to be even weaker than Vercetti and Niko simply because they're an ensemble cast. That's gonna be a casual bracketmaker disaster.


Heh,maybe this game will have a strong "bad guy" kinda like how Kefka is the strongest from FFVI

Tenpenny was in the villains contest so it's not out of the picture! (of course he bombed hard but still!)
#274 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/23/2013 10:59:48 AM | message detail
Reminder that CJ/Tenpenny did better in the Rivalry Rumble vote-ins than Lightning/Barthadjdokodkas
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#275 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 11:03:06 AM | message detail
As a quick swerve to this, does anyone want to predict Big Boss/Auron? <_<

Assume BB gets this pic: http://i36.photobucket.com/albums/e40/neohazz13/Kp26.jpg?t=1229973275
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#276 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/23/2013 11:03:16 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Fact that FALCO has games, that is.

Stupid not being able to edit.


Apparently not. These results confirm what Rivalry Rumble hinted at--this site doesn't give a s*** about Star Fox games; Fox and crew get most of their strength from Smash.

Which...almost makes sense, in a way. Fox hasn't had many games of his own recently, and most of the ones he has had weren't very well-liked. I can't remember if Assault was the one people didn't really like and Command was the one they thought was okay or the other way around, but neither of them was a smash hit, and before that was Adventures which everyone hated and which was originally meant to be a completely unrelated game. His last real hit was Star Fox 64, 16 years ago, and while the 3DS rerelease of that probably should've helped more than it seems to have, that's not a great track record.
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#277 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 11:03:33 AM | message detail
For all you know, Bayonetta overperformed in Round 1 because most voters thought OOH THERE'S THIS SEXY LADING STRIKING A POSE VS. TWO UNAPPEALING GENERIC TEENAGE BOYS FACING FORWARD. So she might be the most casual-reliant character out there.

Although with how Pokecrazy this site has been you'd think that hanging 63% on a Pokemon character would mean SOMETHING.
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#278 | spooky96 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/23/2013 11:04:00 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
As a quick swerve to this, does anyone want to predict Big Boss/Auron? <_<

Assume BB gets this pic: http://i36.photobucket.com/albums/e40/neohazz13/Kp26.jpg?t=1229973275


I...I...I'm not sure if that's a good pic or a bad one...
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#279 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 11:04:22 AM | message detail
I honestly don't see any way GlaDOS wins. Portal has looked terrible across the board. Even GlaDOS's first round performance wasn't THAT great.

And if push comes to shove, the Nintendo hierarchy will fall in line, and I think B8 is vastly overestimating how much of the general populace cares about a horse.

Also, darn it Crash, you almost did it, but I only dropped 4 spots on the Expert leaderboard, so it's not that big of a deal, I guess. I expected that one to be more split.
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#280 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 11:05:13 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
I...I...I'm not sure if that's a good pic or a bad one...


Are you going to vote against Big Boss with his "VOTE FOR ME OR ELSE" pose

Nearly half of the voters in 2008 said "NO I WILL NOT"
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#281 | spooky96 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/23/2013 11:05:23 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
For all you know, Bayonetta overperformed in Round 1 because most voters thought OOH THERE'S THIS SEXY LADING STRIKING A POSE VS. TWO UNAPPEALING GENERIC TEENAGE BOYS FACING FORWARD. So she might be the most casual-reliant character out there.

Although with how Pokecrazy this site has been you'd think that hanging 63% on a Pokemon character would mean SOMETHING.


I think I'm starting to see why B8ers tell you to stop posting.
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#282 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 11:06:17 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
As a quick swerve to this, does anyone want to predict Big Boss/Auron? <_<

Assume BB gets this pic: http://i36.photobucket.com/albums/e40/neohazz13/Kp26.jpg?t=1229973275


I...I...I'm not sure if that's a good pic or a bad one...


You can assume that it's just the top half of that picture, which has been the case whenever he's gotten it in contests.
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#283 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:06:18 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
For all you know, Bayonetta overperformed in Round 1 because most voters thought OOH THERE'S THIS SEXY LADING STRIKING A POSE VS. TWO UNAPPEALING GENERIC TEENAGE BOYS FACING FORWARD. So she might be the most casual-reliant character out there.

Although with how Pokecrazy this site has been you'd think that hanging 63% on a Pokemon character would mean SOMETHING.


I think I'm starting to see why B8ers tell you to stop posting.


No that was actually fine
At least he didn't call N "Generic McDude" and mentioned Other M
#284 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/23/2013 11:11:39 AM | message detail
Being from pokemon isn't worth much on its own if nobody cares about you. Heck, a certain SOMEONE got into Brawl and then this happened:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3247

So close, Isaac! So close!
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#285 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:12:55 AM | message detail
Lucario is nothing more than a furry-bait though
#286 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/23/2013 11:13:57 AM | message detail
Lucario/N both have a clear problem. They're not from R/B/Y or G/S/C.

The strongest Pokemon not from those games is probably Mudkip.
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#287 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 11:17:02 AM | message detail
The funny thing is that we totally wrote Lucario off after that performance and we've never seen a whiff of him since.

But in hindsight, Lucario's probably a low midcarder.
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#288 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 11:18:18 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Being from pokemon isn't worth much on its own if nobody cares about you. Heck, a certain SOMEONE got into Brawl and then this happened:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3247

So close, Isaac! So close!


Well that was before we knew that this site was all Pokecrazy, but yeah you have a point.

I was just curious to ask: How weak do you guys think Gene, Sam Gideon, and Jack Cayman (main characters of God Hand, Vanquish, and MadWorld respectively) would all be if they ever set foot into a contest?
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#289 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 11:18:26 AM | message detail
I don't buy Portal looking bad, btw. WCC didn't make Portal look bad, it made jokes look bad. And there's no read on Wheatley at all - he's both a new, untested character and Crash got Icon SFFed.

GlaDOS is the measuring stick. If she crumbles, then I can see it.
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#290 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/23/2013 11:20:38 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
Being from pokemon isn't worth much on its own if nobody cares about you. Heck, a certain SOMEONE got into Brawl and then this happened:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3247

So close, Isaac! So close!


Well that was before we knew that this site was all Pokecrazy, but yeah you have a point.

I was just curious to ask: How weak do you guys think Gene, Sam Gideon, and Jack Cayman (main characters of God Hand, Vanquish, and MadWorld respectively) would all be if they ever set foot into a contest?


Extremely. With their expected seeding, they would have all likely pulled under 10% in their polls I reckon.
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#291 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 11:20:39 AM | message detail
Chart from the night match:

Time | Elizabeth | Kirby | Crash | Votes
0:05 | 19.40% | 61.64% | 18.97% | 232
1:00 | 24.40% | 55.66% | 19.94% | 5237
2:00 | 25.63% | 52.22% | 22.15% | 3047
3:00 | 24.60% | 52.56% | 22.83% | 2203
4:00 | 25.31% | 49.32% | 25.37% | 1687
5:00 | 24.48% | 47.01% | 28.51% | 1389
6:00 | 23.96% | 46.61% | 29.42% | 1373
7:00 | 24.67% | 43.61% | 31.72% | 1447
8:00 | 25.10% | 50.08% | 24.82% | 1809
9:00 | 25.00% | 50.75% | 24.25% | 1988
10:00 | 23.81% | 50.39% | 25.80% | 2062
11:00 | 23.64% | 51.38% | 24.99% | 2217
12:00 | 22.88% | 52.74% | 24.38% | 2080

Looks like Crash just, uh, crashed after I went to bed. His trends vs. Kirby's trends are like night and day, quite literally. Elizabeth stays pretty consistent throughout, though she dropped a bit toward the end.

X-Stats:

Kirby – 50.00%
Terra Branford – 44.04%
Elizabeth – 32.31%
Crash Bandicoot – 32.10%
Wheatley – 29.74%
Poison – 28.68%
Princess Peach – 26.80%
Thrall – 24.59%
Tommy Vercetti – 20.96%

Kirby's prediction percentage was 44.93%
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#292 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 11:21:24 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
The funny thing is that we totally wrote Lucario off after that performance and we've never seen a whiff of him since.

But in hindsight, Lucario's probably a low midcarder.


Lucario did 0.03% better against Altair than Shulk did this contest. I think 33% on Altair makes you fodder without question, but yeah.
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#293 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/23/2013 11:22:06 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Discussions like this remind me why Snake is my favorite contest character, even beyond just being my preference overall. Sure, for strength you can't beat Link or CAN you. But Snake? I remember people from this very topic once arguing that Snake couldn't beat Magus, the guy Snake's nerd sidekick just put 42% on. Out of all the elites, he's come the furthest.


Wow Magus so overrated
I'm pretty glad that now no one counts on him anymore and his match against Snake's nerd sidekick was debateable

I still wonder,why was Magus hyped to be Link-Killer in 2003?
Mario beat Crono in 2002,and Link beat Mario
Why would Magus,who is weaker than Crono,was supposed to beat Link?
(unless people thought that Magus would be stronger to Crono and I answered my own question)


People were expecting Magus/Crono to be a beatdown of equal or greater proportions to Link>Mario. And since, for all intents and purposes, Mario=Crono, Link/Magus was expected to be the best match ever.


You did indeed. Magus was expected to be stronger than Crono, so Crono's strength made for huge expectations for Magus.

It's funny how even now, we still tend to hype newcomers--and more often than not, we hype the wrong ones.

Draven? Didn't really get the hype, and it turns out he's got the ability to draw humongous rallies that temporarily restore our vote totals to the level of the golden age of contests.
Dracula? Okay, he seems to have lived up to expectations.
Barret? Kind of a disappointment, but then again, FFVII's a hard pedigree to live up to.
Garrus? Okay, actually, I'd say he did a good job living up to the hype; his first-round opponent was just too tough.
Clementine and Lee Everett? Got hype, didn't perform.
Poison probably received more hype than Elizabeth did, even though I think Elizabeth was the favorite. So I have no idea how to judge them.
Epona? Jury's still out on that one; the only proven entity in the first-round match being fodder means we need to see her second-round performance to decide if she's lived up to hype.
Squirtle? Yeah, so far, so good.
Missile? Really outperformed expectations.
Otacon? Kind of bombed. Although I think a lot of us actually were expecting that. Magus's reputation for choking got in the way of rational thought, though.
Gilgamesh? Didn't really get the credit going in.
Groose? Super-hyped, flopped completely.
Wolf? Received way too much credit. Was expected to hold up to SFF like few had before, and failed miserably.
Teemo? Probably only started to receive credit once we saw Draven in action; completely bombed.
Dragonborn? Won the match, but massively underperformed compared to expectations.
Wrex? Completely ignored. Very few people were calling for that one.
Magikarp? Seriously, why do people listen to bonus polls? I mean, yeah, Magikarp probably does beat Missile 1v1 just because Pokιmon, but bonus polls are unreliable, and on top of that, the more poll options there are, the less reliable a poll will be.
Recette? Everyone assumed she'd be turbofodder, and she gets second place outright and avoids a doubling against a proven midcarder.
? Block? Again, stupid people thinking bonus polls are meaningful. They aren't.
And, technically not a newcomer but it's her first contest with a game playable in North America: Lightning? Bombed spectacularly. Okay, yes, there was good reason to expect her to be stronger, since she'd essentially shown herself to be stronger before her game even came out.
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#294 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 11:24:27 AM | message detail | (edited)
Considering the overall strength of western, casual-bait protagonists, I think that doubling Cole gets beat by doubling Niko and beating Protoman.
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#295 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 11:22:33 AM | message detail
Eh, if Crash got SFF'd, it wasn't by that much. There's only so much wiggle room I'm willing to give him. He only got 38% on Hayabusa, after all.

I guess we could be seeing a stronger Crash than we've ever seen before, but eh, I'm not totally convinced.

But Portal's basically irrelevant now and I think that hurts GlaDOS. I don't think she'll have much staying power if Portal isn't in the limelight.
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#296 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 11:25:49 AM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
Being from pokemon isn't worth much on its own if nobody cares about you. Heck, a certain SOMEONE got into Brawl and then this happened:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3247

So close, Isaac! So close!


Well that was before we knew that this site was all Pokecrazy, but yeah you have a point.

I was just curious to ask: How weak do you guys think Gene, Sam Gideon, and Jack Cayman (main characters of God Hand, Vanquish, and MadWorld respectively) would all be if they ever set foot into a contest?


Extremely. With their expected seeding, they would have all likely pulled under 10% in their polls I reckon.


No kidding. Gene maybe could have gotten by on looking a bit anime-esque, while Gideon would suffer Generic McDude syndrome unless having power armor automatically makes you cool on this site (which I don't think is the case unless you're name is Samus). Jack would be the strongest character out of that group solely by his design - he's a trash-talking chainsaw-wielding maniac and his artwork lets you know it. But he still might seem kinda generic to most.

Still, this is worth noting:

http://semna.webs.com/FFVII_Cid_3.jpg
http://static.comicvine.com/uploads/original/11/112282/3244413-6086393823-12192.jpg
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#297 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 11:26:37 AM | message detail
Crash a 31% hour? wow
I don;t think that was a rally,just an extreme case of trends
#298 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 11:26:54 AM | message detail
38% on Ryu H 2010 isn't that bad. Hayabusa's underrated in that year. He just fell off a cliff this contest because NG3 arguably killed his entire series in one fell swoop.

Crash doesn't lose to Elizabeth 1v1, at any rate.
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#299 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 11:27:16 AM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
Considering the overall strength of western, casual-bait protagonists, I think that doubling Cole gets beat by doubling Niko and beating Protoman.


I hope you're taking into account that Niko is also a "western, casual-bait protagonist".
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#300 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 11:27:56 AM | message detail
Current X-Stats:

Solid Snake – 50.00%
Alucard – 27.84%
Captain Falcon – 27.70%
Rydia of Mist – 24.11%
Isaac – 22.20%
Bayonetta – 21.40%
N – 15.74%
Wander – 13.06%
Commander Keen – 10.64%

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2527

Looks like these results point to Crono > Snake > Link > Cloud

So if Pikachu can take out Crono, he may be our only chance at defeating the monster that is Draven.

save_us.rat
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