Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1126

#201 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:04:36 AM | message detail
Question to people: Assuming Draven steamrolls this contest, if Snake were to 60/40 Mario next contest, would you take him over Link 1v1?
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#202 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:04:49 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
I think that was always very tenuous of a contest-deciding match. Rather like people calling Link/Magus the match that would decide SC2K3. Cloud/Crono LFF and Snake/Pokemon LFF are going to be tiny. Like, probably less than 1%. That match isn't deciding anything unless Cloud and Snake start off within 51/49 of each other, and one of them beats Link with Mario while the other doesn't- which is hard considering that we just said they need to be within 51/49 of each other.


Oh yeah, I guess I was pretty ambiguous. By contest winner, I mean the user that would win the bracket contest. Because calling correctly the gauntlet that is Division 6, plus whether it was Link, Snake or Cloud the winner in that final match decided the contest. And your final pick there relied heavily on how you reasoned Division 6.

Now, someone who has Draven winning it all can outscore them.
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#203 | im317 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:04:55 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Is everyone here really that scared of HorseFAQs?

In this environment, yes. Jokes, animals, and inanimate objects are overperforming left and right.


dont forget the rally factor, Epona clearly has the biggest rally potential in that match
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#204 | spooky96 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/23/2013 10:05:26 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Question to people: Assuming Draven steamrolls this contest, if Snake were to 60/40 Mario next contest, would you take him over Link 1v1?


Nope.
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Beggars can't be choosers. gg Link.
#205 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 10:05:50 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
For reference,

Ike (2010c) VS GlaDOS (2010c)

Ike has a strength of 26.54.
GlaDOS has a strength of 20.98.

Ike wins with 60.47% of the vote!


But since then Portal was given away for free for a good while and even got a more popular sequel. Ike has done nothing since then, and SSB characters haven't exactly done very well this contest.
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#206 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 10:06:46 AM | message detail
Every joke outside of Draven has tanked. Did we forget Tidus being stronger than Missingno without stuffing? Animals, not really. Ammy had a great performance that's pretty easily explainable, and Missile got a huge rally. I don't think there's a general trend at work here at all.

The fact that the early voters have embraced a horse (???) is pretty worrying, though.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#207 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/23/2013 10:06:57 AM | message detail
If any character beat Mario 60-40 I would take them over Link 1v1.
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~War~
#208 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 10:08:18 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
hylianknight3 posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
I wish I could care about this result. F*** Draven.


Guess I'm not the only one who has been plagued by apathy ever since that match.


Well there's a reason I haven't been on the board as much ever since that.


I refuse to believe that something good came from Draven.
#209 | spooky96 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/23/2013 10:08:21 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
If any character beat Mario 60-40 I would take them over Link 1v1.


But we all know that's basically impossible, unless a rally like Draven's.
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Beggars can't be choosers. gg Link.
#210 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 10:09:17 AM | message detail
Yeah 60/40ing Mario is just something Link has never, ever been able to do at natural strength pre-SFF. If someone like Snake could do it Link should just resign the match right then.

Not that people won't still pick him, because at this point Link losing isn't something that's accepted as a possibility by many. People are still picking Link over DRAVEN
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#211 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 10:10:27 AM | message detail | (edited)
FranzyvonKarma posted...
If any character beat Mario 60-40 I would take them over Link 1v1.


You do know that Link consistently 63/37s Mario (or does better), right?
#212 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:10:07 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
hylianknight3 posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
I wish I could care about this result. F*** Draven.

Guess I'm not the only one who has been plagued by apathy ever since that match.

Well there's a reason I haven't been on the board as much ever since that.

I refuse to believe that something good came from Draven.


xD
#213 | handsomeboy2012 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:11:03 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Every joke outside of Draven has tanked. Did we forget Tidus being stronger than Missingno without stuffing? Animals, not really. Ammy had a great performance that's pretty easily explainable, and Missile got a huge rally. I don't think there's a general trend at work here at all.

The fact that the early voters have embraced a horse (???) is pretty worrying, though.


Horses have gained a lot of attention with horse meat fiascos and horse masks showing up everywhere on the Internet.

2013 YEAR OF HORSES
#214 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:11:08 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
hylianknight3 posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
I wish I could care about this result. F*** Draven.


Guess I'm not the only one who has been plagued by apathy ever since that match.


Well there's a reason I haven't been on the board as much ever since that.


I refuse to believe that something good came from Draven.


I admit I laughed
#215 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 10:11:20 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
If any character beat Mario 60-40 I would take them over Link 1v1.


You do know that Link consistently 63/37s Mario (or does better), right?


are you aware of how SFF works
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#216 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/23/2013 10:11:32 AM | message detail
What the hell Snake. I go for my lunch and come back to this.
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#217 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:12:42 AM | message detail
List of times Mario has been 60/40'd. Most of it is Link, naturally.

Link/Mario 2002
Sephiroth/Mario 2003
Battle Royale 2006 R1
Battle Royale 2006 R2
Link/Sephiroth/Mario/Vincent 2007
Link/Mario/MMX/Zack 2008
Link/Mario/Samus/Crono 2008
Link/Mario 2010
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#218 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/23/2013 10:13:24 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Also, I hate being resigned to the Ike Defense Force, but the way people acted about him after his Round 1 match was weeeird. MORE STATS:


Ike (2010c) VS Proto Man (2010c)

Ike has a strength of 26.54.
Proto Man has a strength of 25.72.

Ike wins with 51.54% of the vote!


And that's with Proto Man getting a night match against Snake, and with every MM character rocking the house. Ike basically performed exactly like the stats said he would, and he's shown the ability to hold up Nintendo in the past...and everyone abandoned him. I don't get it. Is everyone here really that scared of HorseFAQs?


After what Wrex did, you could consider it a state of panic.
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#219 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 10:14:28 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
If any character beat Mario 60-40 I would take them over Link 1v1.


You do know that Link consistently 63/37s Mario (or does better), right?


are you aware of how SFF works


Yes. I'm also aware of the variance of opinion of what Link would do to Mario without SFF. Basically, if someone 60/40s Mario they very much have a chance against Link. They may even be a slight favorite. But it would still be very, very debatable. I think Link also 60/40s Mario pre-SFF.
#220 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:14:41 AM | message detail
So using a constant Sub-Zero and Ike does Garrus 60/40 Mordin? If so Ike would be the favourite over Epona
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#221 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/23/2013 10:15:27 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
If any character beat Mario 60-40 I would take them over Link 1v1.


You do know that Link consistently 63/37s Mario (or does better), right?


are you aware of how SFF works


Yes. I'm also aware of the variance of opinion of what Link would do to Mario without SFF. Basically, if someone 60/40s Mario they very much have a chance against Link. They may even be a slight favorite. But it would still be very, very debatable. I think Link also 60/40s Mario pre-SFF.


So do you think Samus beats Mario very easily?
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#222 | swirIdude | Posted 8/23/2013 10:15:45 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Is everyone here really that scared of HorseFAQs?

In this environment, yes. Jokes, animals, and inanimate objects are overperforming left and right.


What? WCC bombed, L-Block did what he should have done against fodder, Epona got a decent win against the weakest ME character and Niko, and ? Block was the favorite, but lost to Rikku. They're hardly overperforming.
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#223 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:17:34 AM | message detail
Let me rephrase that. Draven smashed MMX and Ryu. Vincent lost to Mewtwo and Phoenix Wright by a big margin. Suddenly people are talking about Luigi and Kirby over Sephiroth 1v1. Epona feels like a bandwagonable/rallyable character like that.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#224 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 10:19:03 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
So do you think Samus beats Mario very easily?


More Mario/Samus? Yes, I think that Samus is indirectly stronger than Mario. Mario just wins that battle heads-up.
#225 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:19:53 AM | message detail
I really have to applaud EC for standing his ground, alone, and insisting that Samus > Mario indirectly even right after Mario put up 59% directly. Right or not (in 2005, much less likely for that to be right than in later years), that's a bold stand.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#226 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 10:20:07 AM | message detail
If Link/Mario is 60/40 pre-SFF not only did rSFF occur in Samus/Mario, but it is arguably greater than most normal SFF matches we've seen! We're talking about Mario turning a 54-46 deficit into a 60-40 smackdown. That's unreal.
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#227 | Achromatic | Posted 8/23/2013 10:22:08 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
If Link/Mario is 60/40 pre-SFF not only did rSFF occur in Samus/Mario, but it is arguably greater than most normal SFF matches we've seen! We're talking about Mario turning a 54-46 deficit into a 60-40 smackdown. That's unreal.


It's the Nintendo tiers, man. You can't throw down natural strength in those things. Nintendo fans know what they like.
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#228 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:23:07 AM | message detail
Uh, KH, Link/Mario HAS floated around 60/40 indirectly for 10 years. In 2003 it was 62/38 (remember Sephiroth put up close to 62% on Mario). In 2005, the very year of Mario/Samus, Sephiroth still got 56% on Mario. And Link put 55% on Sephiroth.

It wasn't until 2010 that Link appeared to weaken drastically and no longer be capable of putting 60/40 on Mario indirectly.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#229 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:23:59 AM | message detail
Clinkeroth back then was just otherworldly.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#230 | ZFS | Posted 8/23/2013 10:24:27 AM | message detail
Samus over Mario indirectly again, huh. Sounds like the pipe dream that gets Crono doing better than 2005 against Mario. Everyone's gotta have something to make these contests fun, I guess!
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#231 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 10:24:37 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Uh, KH, Link/Mario HAS floated around 60/40 indirectly for 10 years. In 2003 it was 62/38 (remember Sephiroth put up close to 62% on Mario). In 2005, the very year of Mario/Samus, Sephiroth still got 56% on Mario. And Link put 55% on Sephiroth.

It wasn't until 2010 that Link appeared to weaken drastically and no longer be capable of putting 60/40 on Mario indirectly.


You'll, uh, notice I am not arguing for a Link as strong as back then lest all my hopes and dreams be shattered <_<
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#232 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 10:25:51 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
red sox 777 posted...
Uh, KH, Link/Mario HAS floated around 60/40 indirectly for 10 years. In 2003 it was 62/38 (remember Sephiroth put up close to 62% on Mario). In 2005, the very year of Mario/Samus, Sephiroth still got 56% on Mario. And Link put 55% on Sephiroth.

It wasn't until 2010 that Link appeared to weaken drastically and no longer be capable of putting 60/40 on Mario indirectly.


You'll, uh, notice I am not arguing for a Link as strong as back then lest all my hopes and dreams be shattered <_<


Draven has already shattered all of our hopes and dreams.
#233 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/23/2013 10:26:17 AM | message detail
KH Link 2004 gets like 88% on Alucard.

RIP Snake.
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#234 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 10:27:12 AM | message detail
But yeah, Snake always had a path to victory against Link this year imho. Beat him as a longshot with Mario in the poll. Hold a bonus Link/Snake 1v1 poll, cue the bandwagon, Snake boosts relative to his 'real' strength 2008 style and wins again.

I mean now there's a Draven in the way but I always maintained that was a path to victory!
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#235 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:27:28 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
I really have to applaud EC for standing his ground, alone, and insisting that Samus > Mario indirectly even right after Mario put up 59% directly. Right or not (in 2005, much less likely for that to be right than in later years), that's a bold stand.


It's not that surprising
Samus is the most overrated NN currently
At least people learned that Sephiroth and Crono are much weaker now
Samus? she will need to prove herself
#236 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/23/2013 10:27:50 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
KH Link 2004 gets like 88% on Alucard.

RIP Snake.


Yeah but 04 Link also puts up 69% on 04 Snake!
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#237 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 10:28:47 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
red sox 777 posted...
I really have to applaud EC for standing his ground, alone, and insisting that Samus > Mario indirectly even right after Mario put up 59% directly. Right or not (in 2005, much less likely for that to be right than in later years), that's a bold stand.


It's not that surprising
Samus is the most overrated NN currently
At least people learned that Sephiroth and Crono are much weaker now
Samus? she will need to prove herself


contest

of

FRAUDS

only Draven is legit
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#238 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/23/2013 10:29:47 AM | message detail
Snake is only doing slightly better than should have been expected, not sure why people are so shocked. I had this at 60/25/15 based on a possible Snake boost (up to 2010 Cloud levels or so), Alucard being very fortunate last contest in getting Link at night, and Link anti-votes.
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#239 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:30:07 AM | message detail
BRAWL DEBOOST
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#240 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/23/2013 10:30:24 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure Samus already proved herself.

I mean, if she overperformed on fodder then she's right on track with every Samus ever.
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#241 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/23/2013 10:31:37 AM | message detail
There'll be a lot of LFF in Epona/Ike, but don't expect either of them to just roll over. Ike has FE and SSBB while Epona has three major LoZ-games -- pretty different periods and reasons to like them. LoZ normally SFFs most Nintendo-opponents, but Epona's not so likely and Ike's proven resistant anyway. Then again, FE hasn't shown it can SFF anybody either. Marth > Lucario might be our only example, and he lost to DK, MK, and Peach before.

Gotta go with Epona > Ike, but GLaDOS probably wins from LFF. GLaDOS is the real gauge of a Portal-boost, not Wheatley...so she takes it with a decent boost and heavy Nintendo divide.
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#242 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 10:31:53 AM | message detail
If Samus beats Snake it will be dismissed as Brawl SFF.
If Samus beats Sephiroth it will be because Sephiroth has fallen off a cliff.
If Samus beats Cloud it will be because Cloud has also fallen off a cliff.

In conclusion, to prove herself, Samus must beat Link or Mario. Samus is so screwed.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#243 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/23/2013 10:32:46 AM | message detail
Reminder that Marth held up far, far better against Donkey Kong than Falco did, despite the fact that Marth has games people have played that don't have DK.
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#244 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/23/2013 10:33:32 AM | message detail
Fact that FALCO has games, that is.

Stupid not being able to edit.
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~War~
#245 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/23/2013 10:34:22 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Reminder that Marth held up far, far better against Donkey Kong than Falco did, despite the fact that Marth has games people have played that don't have DK.

No he didn't. Not at the time.
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#246 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 10:35:11 AM | message detail
Samus could beat Mario...if GameFAQs is stuck in pre-2010 that is.

Otherwise, no. Not when the Mario franchise is bigger than it has ever been since the NES days while Metroid is coming off of They Changed It Now It Sucks: The Game and has no upcoming release in sight, causing everyone to think the series is dead.
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#247 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/23/2013 10:35:26 AM | message detail
Discussions like this remind me why Snake is my favorite contest character, even beyond just being my preference overall. Sure, for strength you can't beat Link or CAN you. But Snake? I remember people from this very topic once arguing that Snake couldn't beat Magus, the guy Snake's nerd sidekick just put 42% on. Out of all the elites, he's come the furthest.
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#248 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/23/2013 10:52:12 AM | message detail | (edited)
I'm not convinced that the order won't end up Epona>Ike>Glados.

While Epona is sort of a wild card, we've had good showings from animals and jokes during this contest. In addition, it's Zelda (and OoC Zelda at that), which should lend it some modicum of strength. It more than doubled Niko, which isn't a bad showing if Epona is high fodder.

Even if Epona gets some Zelda push going, I'm still not convinced that it's going to hurt Ike at all. Ike is a FE character and a Smash character, neither of which crosses over with Epona. I'm not sure that Ike gets much of his strength from Nintendo (Although I would be open to proof otherwise), which means that if Epona is higher tier, he's not going to lose very much strength to SFF.

And Glados, being from Portal, feels like a character that might lose a bit of strength with the lower votals we're seeing. I think some of her strength comes from the casual crowd (especially after seeing WCC's underperformance over Claptrap), and she's going to end up with an underwhelming performance because of it.

Thoughts?
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#249 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 10:37:26 AM | message detail
I don't think Marth and Ike are really comparable when looking at LFF/SFF stuff. Ike has games people have played.
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#250 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/23/2013 10:38:59 AM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
Discussions like this remind me why Snake is my favorite contest character, even beyond just being my preference overall. Sure, for strength you can't beat Link or CAN you. But Snake? I remember people from this very topic once arguing that Snake couldn't beat Magus, the guy Snake's nerd sidekick just put 42% on. Out of all the elites, he's come the furthest.


Especially when you consider Snake is NN but didn't register his first win against a fellow NN until his 5th contest. And it wasn't even like his losses before then were to the upper echelons of the NN either.
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