Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1126

#101 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/23/2013 9:11:01 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
So am I the only one thinking that this is Bayonetta collapsing against anyone with a fanbase in similar fashion to Ryu Hayabusa?


This is why I put Bayonetta under 20% in my Oracle prediction because I believe she is a character that needs to rely on her design to get votes and would collapse in the face of any character with a big fanbase. Sort of like how Kratos and Ryu Hayabusa collapse against Snake, I thought Bayonetta would do the same here.
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#102 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:11:14 AM | message detail
Based on Link/Alucard Snake is doing around expected, maybe just slightly worse
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#103 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/23/2013 9:11:16 AM | message detail
Gosh darnit I can't wait until Bayonetta gets in Smash so she can have her OWN devoted fanbase.
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#104 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 9:12:49 AM | message detail | (edited)
Although you'd think that being an attractive woman would thus make you better at avoiding SFF from Snake than Ryu Hayabusa or Kratos. Not to mention Snake vs. Alucard was an SFF match on Gamespot...so why isn't it one here?
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#105 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:13:03 AM | message detail | (edited)
Bayonetta will probably rise in percent, she's already up 2% on Snake since the freeze
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#106 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 9:16:49 AM | message detail | (edited)
So, what's everyone thinking for tonight? I personally think it can legitimately go all three ways, although I have a clear pecking order in mind.

Glados: Is probably the weakest in the poll, but is benefiting from a Ninty split and it being a night match.

Ike: His R1 performance looks better with every match. I think I'd take him over the other two in 1 v 1 affairs in a heartbeat, but with overlap and the possibility of weirdness, his fate here is uncertain.

Epona: Still a big question mark. She depends on how well you think 60-40ing Mordin is. If you respect that, she could be good. If you don't...she's not! There's also the question of whether or not she dies with another Nintendo character in the poll. She might...or might not. Big ole' question mark.
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#107 | -Zelmor- | Posted 8/23/2013 9:15:45 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Although you'd think that being an attractive woman would thus make you better at avoiding SFF from Snake than Ryu Hayabusa or Kratos. Not to mention Snake vs. Alucard was an SFF match on Gamespot...so why isn't it one here?


What has Gamespot got to do with Gamefaqs.
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#108 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:15:47 AM | message detail
Whoa, take it easy Snake.
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#109 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 9:18:57 AM | message detail
For reference,

Snake (2010c) VS Alucard (2010c)

Snake has a strength of 46.51.
Alucard has a strength of 28.21.

Snake wins with 69.67% of the vote!
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#110 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:19:56 AM | message detail
What was that crazy Snake update I don't even
#111 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 9:21:06 AM | message detail
Ike vs. GLaDOS is basically a Smash character vs. the "primary" character of one of the most popular franchises of this generation...uh oh.
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#112 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/23/2013 9:21:47 AM | message detail
Snake is a madman, and apart from Epona (who probably has a 50/50 shot to reach him), he might not see a single actual Nintendo character until Mario in the finals - and Draven will make that an entirely meaningless battle for second place.
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#113 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/23/2013 9:22:16 AM | message detail
Tonight's probably as good a time to bank as any!
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#114 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:22:22 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
So, what's everyone thinking for tonight? I personally think it can legitimately go all three ways, although I have a clear pecking order in mind.

Glados: Is probably the weakest in the poll, but is benefiting from a Ninty split and it being a night match.

Ike: His R1 performance looks better with every match. I think I'd take him over the other two in 1 v 1 affairs in a heartbeat, but with overlap and the possibility of weirdness, his fate here is uncertain.

Epona: Still a big question mark. She depends on how well you think 60-40ing Mordin is. If you respect that, she could be good. If you don't...she's not! There's also the question of whether or not she dies with another Nintendo character in the poll. She might...or might not. Big ole' question mark.


I have no idea and I don't think this match is possible to predict (kinda reminds me of Kefka/Zack/Ryu)

Will Epona SFF Ike? or Ike SFF Epona? or will they be even,and give GlaDOS a free pass to the third round?
We..need a vote sample for this,I really don't know if people consider Epona a good joke or not
#115 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:22:39 AM | message detail
I think it's down to Ike v Epona. For whatever reason I just don't like GlaDOS here.

My heart says Epona, but my head says Ike.

My expert challenge also has Epona right now may need to change that but argh this match.
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#116 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/23/2013 9:23:17 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
So, what's everyone thinking for tonight? I personally think it can legitimately go all three ways, although I have a clear pecking order in mind.

Glados: Is probably the weakest in the poll, but is benefiting from a Ninty split and it being a night match.

Ike: His R1 performance looks better with every match. I think I'd take him over the other two in 1 v 1 affairs in a heartbeat, but with overlap and the possibility of weirdness, his fate here is uncertain.

Epona: Still a big question mark. She depends on how well you think 60-40ing Mordin is. If you respect that, she could be good. If you don't...she's not! There's also the question of whether or not she dies with another Nintendo character in the poll. She might...or might not. Big ole' question mark.


I have literally no idea what will happen tonight. These 3 could finish in any order and I wouldn't be surprised.
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#117 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:23:45 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Will Epona SFF Ike? or Ike SFF Epona? or will they be even,and give GlaDOS a free pass to the third round?
We..need a vote sample for this,I really don't know if people consider Epona a good joke or not


Zelda or FE, which do you think comes higher up the SFF ladder?
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#118 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:24:09 AM | message detail
2010 x-stats looking remarkably accurate so far here.
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#119 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/23/2013 9:24:25 AM | message detail
We've already seen the Smash guys fold like laundry to higher-tier Nintendo guys (it was especially shocking with DK and Falco). There's no chance Ike holds up to Epona at all, let alone well enough to actually win the match. It's Epona and GlaDOS fighting for first.
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#120 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:24:38 AM | message detail
nintendogirl2 posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Will Epona SFF Ike? or Ike SFF Epona? or will they be even,and give GlaDOS a free pass to the third round?
We..need a vote sample for this,I really don't know if people consider Epona a good joke or not


Zelda or FE, which do you think comes higher up the SFF ladder?


It's not only about series,though
It's about the character itself
It's not like Fawful could SFF Ness or something
#121 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:24:54 AM | message detail
that match would be so much easier if ike were a dog.

dogs are obviously at the top of the animal sff chain
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#122 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:25:22 AM | message detail
Ultimaphazon posted...
I have literally no idea what will happen tonight. These 3 could finish in any order and I wouldn't be surprised.


Same here.
#123 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/23/2013 9:25:38 AM | message detail
The F***, too steroid already.
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#124 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:26:16 AM | message detail
What amazes me is how Crono ever got 74% on Captain Falcon. It looks like Falcon got a massive boost after that match. Or something.
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#125 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:26:20 AM | message detail
Would be good if Glados was a bird. Gamefaqs hates birds.
#126 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 9:26:21 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
2010 x-stats looking remarkably accurate so far here.


But but...Alucard was overrated in the stats!

Then again, so was Snake if you want to take that route, since he lost to Cloud. I guess in that way, everyone's overrated in the stats.
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#127 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 9:26:50 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
What amazes me is how Crono ever got 74% on Captain Falcon. It looks like Falcon got a massive boost after that match. Or something.


BRAWL BOOST!
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#128 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:29:47 AM | message detail | (edited)
Come to think of it,how many matches of "same power Nintendo characters" we had before?
Luigi Ganondorf MC comes to mind,and we know what happened
Of course GlaDOS is nowhere as strong as 2007 MC,but still


edit-and no Noble Nine SFF,of course
#129 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:29:27 AM | message detail
I'll take it to mean that Link and Cloud 2010 are only a little nonlinear, and mostly at the fodder level (which Alucard is not). Link and Cloud are JUST THAT WEAK nowadays.
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#130 | tgs2 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:30:26 AM | message detail
you know, if Snake is just going to stomp Alucard's face in in the day, You can STILL make an argument for Falcon > Alucard in a 24 hour match despite Alucard defying all logic and coming back in the morning.
#131 | Sorozone | Posted 8/23/2013 9:30:33 AM | message detail
F*** it.

I'm going with my bracket choice, I'm all in for Epona.
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#132 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 9:31:52 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
We've already seen the Smash guys fold like laundry to higher-tier Nintendo guys (it was especially shocking with DK and Falco). There's no chance Ike holds up to Epona at all, let alone well enough to actually win the match. It's Epona and GlaDOS fighting for first.


Ike doesn't fold to Nintendo people.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2098
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3830

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3283
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3259

Those are two comparisons of Ike holding up way better than his SSB-counterparts against much stronger competition - and I doubt Epona is stronger, honestly. If anything, she folds to Ike. We say this a lot, but...it's a horse. You're going to have to convince me that a horse is going to have a fanbase that won't quit under pressure, when there's other legitimate poll options.
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#133 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 9:32:13 AM | message detail
Weak relative to how strong they used to be, of course.

Speaking of which, honest question: If the Compilation of Final Fantasy VII never happened, what do you guys think would happen to the FFVII cast's contest strength in 2005 and after?
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#134 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:32:33 AM | message detail
We've already seen the Smash guys fold like laundry to higher-tier Nintendo guys (it was especially shocking with DK and Falco). There's no chance Ike holds up to Epona at all, let alone well enough to actually win the match. It's Epona and GlaDOS fighting for first.

Well, I wouldn't call Epona high tier, but I suppose I agree. She's way more loved than Ike (ignoring Ike's FE fanbase since most of his votes come from Smash).
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#135 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:32:40 AM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
I'm going with my bracket choice, I'm all in for Epona.

This is what I'm about 95% likely to do.

The further from the leaderboard I am, the more reckless I become! It might get me on the Bracket Leaderboard too!

I just have the sickest feeling that Ike is going to win it in a laugher or something.

and that'd just be embarrassing
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#136 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 9:32:44 AM | message detail
This match is honestly making me wonder if we should be considering Snake>Link 1v1.
#137 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:32:51 AM | message detail
I though my 55% was high for Snake in my Oracle.
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#138 | Achromatic | Posted 8/23/2013 9:33:37 AM | message detail
I took Snake to get 57% in the oracle and I was surprised almost everyone I saw had below that.

<_<.
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#139 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:34:25 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
You're going to have to convince me that a horse is going to have a fanbase that won't quit under pressure, when there's other legitimate poll options.

The Zelda fanbase, having its confidence rocked not too long ago will rally together in preparation of the fated day and will Epona to victory!

...

how is that?
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#140 | LOLContests | Posted 8/23/2013 9:34:37 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
I'll take it to mean that Link and Cloud 2010 are only a little nonlinear, and mostly at the fodder level (which Alucard is not). Link and Cloud are JUST THAT WEAK nowadays.


Theoretically, shouldn't anti-votes be non-linear? As the opponents get stronger, the chances increase that the anti-voters would have voted for the opponent anyway.
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#141 | Achromatic | Posted 8/23/2013 9:34:49 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
You're going to have to convince me that a horse is going to have a fanbase that won't quit under pressure, when there's other legitimate poll options.

The Zelda fanbase, having its confidence rocked not too long ago will rally together in preparation of the fated day and will Epona to victory!

...

how is that?


Groose is loose right guys.
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#142 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/23/2013 9:35:19 AM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
you know, if Snake is just going to stomp Alucard's face in in the day, You can STILL make an argument for Falcon > Alucard in a 24 hour match despite Alucard defying all logic and coming back in the morning.


In a 24 hour match, Falcon probably just blows Alucard away with the ASV.

Why the heck are we referring to him as just "Falcon"? I guess we can't go around writing "Captain Falcon" all the time...so maybe we could just write "Capt. Falcon"? Nah, I'd prefer to stick with just "Falcon".
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#143 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/23/2013 9:35:41 AM | message detail
Another huge jump, oh my.
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#144 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:35:42 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
xp1337 posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
You're going to have to convince me that a horse is going to have a fanbase that won't quit under pressure, when there's other legitimate poll options.

The Zelda fanbase, having its confidence rocked not too long ago will rally together in preparation of the fated day and will Epona to victory!

...

how is that?


Groose is loose right guys.

The Zelda fanbase hadn't been rocked yet!

that day.

everything changed.
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#145 | legendmusketeer | Posted 8/23/2013 9:36:44 AM | message detail
Whoa, take it easy on them Snake.
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#146 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:37:18 AM | message detail
This is getting out of hand now.
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#147 | handsomeboy2012 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:37:42 AM | message detail
Slow down Snake or people will start accusations of vote stuffing.
#148 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/23/2013 9:37:45 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
You're going to have to convince me that a horse is going to have a fanbase that won't quit under pressure, when there's other legitimate poll options.

The Zelda fanbase, having its confidence rocked not too long ago will rally together in preparation of the fated day and will Epona to victory!

...

how is that?


That honestly might be the best argument I've seen so far! I think Epona could win due to a weird bandwagon or whatever. That wouldn't surprise me. Did you see that early vote? It was better than Pokemon's.

In a normal situation, though, I would have very little faith in Epona.
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#149 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:37:48 AM | message detail
Whoa, Snake's gained 3% on Alucard in 20 minutes. Now he's nearly at 72%. Uh....that's already higher than what Link got in 2010. He looks about 1 update away from surpassing what Link would have gotten in 24 hours.

I guess maybe 72% was lowballing Link for 24 hrs given the big day vote disparity, but, 73% is as high as he could go. And Snake isn't far from that either.

Sound the alarms.
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#150 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 9:38:17 AM | message detail
Seriously though, I can't really give you an answer. And that's fine. I kind of secretly think you're right anyway. Best I could really do is "But it's OoT!" and that's pretty shallow.

I'm way overdue for a pick where I go with my heart despite all logic insisting it's a terrible idea.
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