Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1126

#1 | spooky96 | Posted 8/23/2013 6:52:51 AM | message detail
Snake's turn.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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Beggars can't be choosers. gg Link.
#2 | spooky96 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/23/2013 7:35:36 AM | message detail
up
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Beggars can't be choosers. gg Link.
#3 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/23/2013 7:40:03 AM | message detail
And we're off!
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#4 | Qwaar | Posted 8/23/2013 7:42:37 AM | message detail
Does Crash still have a chance of doing this?
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#5 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 7:42:47 AM | message detail
109 votes, 16 updates remaining. Crash needs just under 7 votes per update.

Fun fact: based on the last 10 minutes, Crash wins by 3 votes on the final update.
#6 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 7:54:19 AM | message detail
So, uh, I showed up just to be around for the start of the next match but...

...wtf Crash? Did I bail just before you got serious or something?
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#7 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 8:03:34 AM | message detail
I was about to say that Crash is dead, then that update happened.
#8 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:04:26 AM | message detail
Hahaha, please let this be an exciting finish.

I was afraid we were going to have back-to-back boring matches before HorseFAQs took the site by storm.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#9 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:08:09 AM | message detail
Elizabeth just fell off those last two updates.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 85/105 Today's Picks: Kirby and Solid Snake
#10 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 8:08:17 AM | message detail
Crash needs 7.27 votes per update.

Based on the last half hour and the last hour, he doesn't make it. Based on the last 15 minutes, he takes the lead at 11:45.
#11 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/23/2013 8:08:37 AM | message detail
Wtf was that previous Crash update?
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Proud supporter of DogFAQs
#12 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 8:08:53 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Elizabeth just fell off those last two updates.


The 11:01 update was also a Crash spike.
#13 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/23/2013 8:09:55 AM | message detail
Elizabeth cant quite pull away
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http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg
#14 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:12:44 AM | message detail
I still can't get over Crash being down over 350 last night and still trending down more or less last I checked to this!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#15 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:16:50 AM | message detail
This comeback!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#16 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 8:17:25 AM | message detail
Crash just isn't gaining by enough and you pretty much know he can't pull it off (without some sort of rally), but it's still too close to write it off completely. He's right on that edge where you can hold out hope but basically know it won't happen.
#17 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:18:13 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Crash just isn't gaining by enough and you pretty much know he can't pull it off (without some sort of rally), but it's still too close to write it off completely. He's right on that edge where you can hold out hope but basically know it won't happen.

False hope is the best hope!

I'm hyped!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#18 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:20:28 AM | message detail
Crash tends to do better at night, against Magus/Phoenix/Bomberman he was getting consistent second place updates despite finishing the poll in last.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 85/105 Today's Picks: Kirby and Solid Snake
#19 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:20:55 AM | message detail
YEAH LETS DO RALLY FOR A SECOND PLACE
Like it matters to anyone outside of the expert challenge.really
#20 | Solfadore | Posted 8/23/2013 8:21:43 AM | message detail
7 vote cut. Come on, Crash!
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When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore
#21 | Korayashi | Posted 8/23/2013 8:22:16 AM | message detail
If Crash keeps up this pace he'll lose. HIGH DRAMA!
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Nominate Spring Breeze Dancin' from Mystical Ninja Starring Goemon for Character Battle IX!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJrnlFW4IMc
#22 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:23:11 AM | message detail
Crash needs to cut by 9 to win
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 85/105 Today's Picks: Kirby and Solid Snake
#23 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:23:29 AM | message detail
Korayashi posted...
If Crash keeps up this pace he'll lose. HIGH DRAMA!

But he'd still be in range of one of those crazy updates!

DRAMA
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#24 | Solfadore | Posted 8/23/2013 8:26:30 AM | message detail
64.

These 7 votes cut aren't gonna work, Crash.
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When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore
#25 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:26:32 AM | message detail
These 7 vote cuts are not enough Crash
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 85/105 Today's Picks: Kirby and Solid Snake
#26 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:26:36 AM | message detail
these 7 vote cuts.

such consistency
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#27 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 8:27:06 AM | message detail
Based on the last half-hour, Crash loses by 6 votes.
#28 | Solfadore | Posted 8/23/2013 8:27:53 AM | message detail
Based on the last two updates, he loses by 15.
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When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore
#29 | Qwaar | Posted 8/23/2013 8:28:00 AM | message detail
More rallying please!
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#30 | Solfadore | Posted 8/23/2013 8:31:25 AM | message detail
1 vote cut. Pretty sure it's over.
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When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore
#31 | Spontaneousness | Posted 8/23/2013 8:32:22 AM | message detail | (edited)
edit: miscalculated, not looking good for crash
#32 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:31:37 AM | message detail
Ugh, Crash, you can't do that!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#33 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:33:49 AM | message detail
One more stall like that from Elizabeth and the match is over...
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 85/105 Today's Picks: Kirby and Solid Snake
#34 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 8:37:18 AM | message detail
Elizabeth spiked that update. Expect a slight lull at 11:41. If Crash can't make a big cut here, it's probably his last chance.
#35 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/23/2013 8:38:55 AM | message detail
It's not looking good...C'mon, Crash, get your head in the game!
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#36 | Qwaar | Posted 8/23/2013 8:39:20 AM | message detail
Yeah, looks like this is over. Shame.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#37 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:39:29 AM | message detail
Where does one rally for Crash Bandicoot? >.>
#38 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:39:59 AM | message detail
Crash needs to cut 11 votes per update to tie.
In the last half hour Crash has cut 4.16 votes per update. At that rate Elizabeth will win by 34 votes.
In the last hour Crash has cut 5 votes per update. At that rate Elizabeth will win by 30 votes.
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NGirl@work or on phone.
#39 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:40:28 AM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
Where does one rally for Crash Bandicoot? >.>


In the same place you rally for Elizabeth
So rallying on both sides won't work
#40 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/23/2013 8:40:29 AM | message detail
55 votes and 20 minutes. I don't think he can do it. Nice effort, though.
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Proud supporter of DogFAQs
#41 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 8:41:35 AM | message detail
Over.
#42 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:41:37 AM | message detail
Ugh.

And now the drama is gone too.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#43 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:41:47 AM | message detail
And that's match, good try Crash
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 85/105 Today's Picks: Kirby and Solid Snake
#44 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/23/2013 8:42:13 AM | message detail
And Elizabeth gains 10. Definitely over.
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Proud supporter of DogFAQs
#45 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:42:30 AM | message detail
Crash needs to cut 16.25 votes per update to tie.
In the last half hour Crash has cut 3.33 votes per update. At that rate Elizabeth will win by 52 votes.
In the last hour Crash has cut 3.67 votes per update. At that rate Elizabeth will win by 50 votes.

That looks like it.
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NGirl@work or on phone.
#46 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/23/2013 8:45:28 AM | message detail
If we all gather each and every one of our friends...
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~ The Dilated One
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#47 | xp1337 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:46:41 AM | message detail
11 vote cut, that's just taunting doing that after the match was effectively ended.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#48 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:46:49 AM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
If we all gather each and every one of our friends...


I don't know about you but my friends are not zombies and they would for vote Crash so I don't have their support!
#49 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/23/2013 8:48:02 AM | message detail
Looks like it was all in vain...
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#50 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 8:48:57 AM | message detail
It's weird but I would cheer for Crash if I had him in expert
It's just that Elizabeth is pretty much the best female sidekick in the history of video games

Maybe it's because she already lost,so it doesn't matter if she finish second or third...