Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1125

#201 | shane15 | Posted 8/22/2013 1:25:12 PM | message detail
****ing lol at Crash.That pic is amazing.On a side note if Big Boss loses this match i'm joining the Draven bandwagon.**** nintendofaqs >_>
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#202 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 1:26:32 PM | message detail
I, too, will give my vote to that scrappy underdog Draven
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#203 | swirIdude | Posted 8/22/2013 1:27:06 PM | message detail
So, does Kirby mascot SFF Crash to let Elizabeth get into second?
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SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#204 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/22/2013 1:27:18 PM | message detail
#205 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/22/2013 1:27:41 PM | message detail
swirIdude posted...
So, does Kirby mascot SFF Crash to let Elizabeth get into second?

That's what I'm thinking!
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#206 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/22/2013 1:27:57 PM | message detail
Old Lara looks terrible compared to new Lara.
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#207 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/22/2013 1:29:08 PM | message detail
#208 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/22/2013 1:29:38 PM | message detail
Ultimaphazon posted...
Old Lara looks terrible compared to new Lara.


More recognizable, though. New Laura is the female version of a McDude.
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#209 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 1:30:27 PM | message detail
Whatever you wanna call it, I'm feeling Kirby's gonna destroy Crash in a way that will make what Sephiroth did to Spyro look pathetic. Now, Elizabeth might be weak enough to still lose that, but yeah.
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#210 | swordz9 | Posted 8/22/2013 1:30:35 PM | message detail
Ewww any Lara design that isn't the one from the new game. I don't really like any of that Snake match.
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#211 | swirIdude | Posted 8/22/2013 1:30:41 PM | message detail
Since he's pink and cuddly and a lot of people know who he is based on image alone. Same idea with Crash; he's instantly recognizable to anyone who gamed in the PS1 days. Could Kirby grab more of that casual audience that knows both instantly (and likely won't give a crap about Elizabeth, only Infinite fans will be voting her)?
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#212 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/22/2013 1:30:43 PM | message detail
There is literally no such thing as a female version of a McDude. Hot chicks will get votes.
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#213 | swordz9 | Posted 8/22/2013 1:32:46 PM | message detail
Sucks we're not getting a yarn Kirby match pic too.
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#214 | -Zelmor- | Posted 8/22/2013 1:37:08 PM | message detail
Joining the dark side too if Nintendo wins this match. What's the point of Luigi winning, do we really need to see Sephy bullying around 2 Nintendo characters?

At least Sephiroth vs Big Boss vs Kirby would give us a better reading on BB and Luigi. F***** up NintendoFaqs.
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#215 | anondum | Posted 8/22/2013 1:37:42 PM | message detail
3 vote lead for boss...

PUTTING AN END TO THE YEAR OF LUIGI
#216 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 1:41:53 PM | message detail
Don't worry guys the odds may be against Draven but I think he has a chance
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#217 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/22/2013 1:54:12 PM | message detail
-Zelmor- posted...
Joining the dark side too if Nintendo wins this match. What's the point of Luigi winning, do we really need to see Sephy bullying around 2 Nintendo characters?

At least Sephiroth vs Big Boss vs Kirby would give us a better reading on BB and Luigi. F***** up NintendoFaqs.

The point is for Luigi to win the whole contest
Year of Luigi
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#218 | im317 | Posted 8/22/2013 2:31:29 PM | message detail | (edited)
thanks for the help

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#219 | im317 | Posted 8/22/2013 1:57:16 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#220 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 2:00:13 PM | message detail
Bowser bled a little over a percent from this point to the end of the poll against The Boss, but that point isn't as salient because Luigi's been rehabilitating his USA percent nicely, something that Bowser didn't do. Luigi USA edge now up to around 4.5 pts. If BB can cut that down by about a point and a half he'll be in a lot better shape, as it is that's enough for the MGS SNV woes to cost him the match if that doesn't change.
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#221 | Sorozone | Posted 8/22/2013 2:13:42 PM | message detail
Ness needs to quit f***ing Luigi here.
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#222 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/22/2013 2:16:18 PM | message detail
Good to see that Djoker goes out of his way to bash Wii U outside of the Vita and Wii U hardware boards. Tell it like it is, dood!

So there's a rally for Big Boss now?
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#223 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/22/2013 2:16:20 PM | message detail
im317, is this what you're looking for?:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtKQRLhDnvIDdDA3Nm1PUzNHamhwLWJSQXJDakRiTXc&usp=sharing
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Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32
#224 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 2:16:26 PM | message detail
Votals look pretty decent - about 1000 ahead of yesterday's day match, though not up to the Shepard/Tharja/Aeris standard. If there are any rallies on either side they're probably very minor, this is probably just a close match plus The Luigi Effect.
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#225 | im317 | Posted 8/22/2013 2:22:06 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
im317, is this what you're looking for?:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtKQRLhDnvIDdDA3Nm1PUzNHamhwLWJSQXJDakRiTXc&usp=sharing


yes, yes it is. thought i have a question that hopefully you can help me with. what formula was used to get C to adjust properly for ties? it must be something involving B, but i cant figure it out.
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"L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember
"L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass"
#226 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/22/2013 2:25:56 PM | message detail
In cell C2 I put:

=sum(B$2:B2)-(B2-1)

I just copied that down for the rest of column C.
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Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32
#227 | im317 | Posted 8/22/2013 2:34:07 PM | message detail | (edited)
so simple, i was looking for some complicated way to do it and missed the obvious.

i just deleted the posts that were stretching the page
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"L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember
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#228 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/22/2013 2:42:32 PM | message detail
Ness seriously needs to **** off. Stop rising in percent.
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#229 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/22/2013 2:43:22 PM | message detail
Big Boss going up again. Let's see what happens at 6 PM, which is traditionally the next (and last) big wave of the ASV, from the West Coast.
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#230 | Whupassman | Posted 8/22/2013 2:47:40 PM | message detail
*misses the days when this site was more self-contained*
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#231 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 2:49:06 PM | message detail
...with the exception of Draven this site is more self-contained now than it's ever been
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#232 | Sorozone | Posted 8/22/2013 2:53:23 PM | message detail
Ness seriously needs to start f***ing off.
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#233 | LeonhartFone | Posted 8/22/2013 2:54:05 PM | message detail
Big Boss using Ness as a shield
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#234 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 2:56:27 PM | message detail
It'd be just desserts against Nintendo anyway since Kirby using Raiden as a shield is what stopped BB from potentially making a run to the semifinals in '08.

...and then screwing over Solid Snake but never you mind that.
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#235 | im317 | Posted 8/22/2013 2:58:16 PM | message detail
how much worse do you really want/expect Ness to do?
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"L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember
"L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass"
#236 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/22/2013 3:04:12 PM | message detail
Big Boss's U.S. and Canada deficits both down to about 4%.
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#237 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 3:04:26 PM | message detail
ohhhh snap looks like it's the California ASV

TO THE RESCUE
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#238 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/22/2013 3:04:54 PM | message detail
That's 9 updates in a row for Big Boss. West Coast ASV coming up- last chance for Luigi.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#239 | Sorozone | Posted 8/22/2013 3:06:31 PM | message detail
im317 posted...
how much worse do you really want/expect Ness to do?


I want Ness to stop gaining percent like he has for the past I dunno, 20 or so updates. It's killing my man Luigi!
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#240 | Sorozone | Posted 8/22/2013 3:08:04 PM | message detail
Well, he stopped there, but Big Boss got a a monster update.
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#241 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/22/2013 3:08:51 PM | message detail
So how does this match rank so far among closest wire-to-wire matches? Though it seems Big Boss is trying to run away with it.
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#242 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/22/2013 3:08:55 PM | message detail
When does Europe go to sleep
Is there any chance of that helping Luigi enough to counteract the US night vote?
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#243 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/22/2013 3:12:17 PM | message detail
Luigi will end up looking better if Big Boss wins here and then badly embarrasses Sephiroth, something Luigi has no shot at doing with Kirby in the poll with him.

And right now this is the closest wire-to-wire match ever. Highest lead has been 136, MGS2 vs. SotC was 188.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#244 | Sorozone | Posted 8/22/2013 3:12:47 PM | message detail
Europe should be asleep here soon.

Luigi is probably favored in the SNV, I would think. So he still has his chances.
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#245 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/22/2013 3:14:34 PM | message detail
Past the halfway mark.

Luigi's greatest lead: 97
Big Boss's greatest lead: 136

Greatest lead of 136, held on a 233-vote swing.

Previous record:

Shadow of the Colossus's biggest lead: 188
Metal Gear Solid 2's biggest lead: 47

Greatest lead of 188, held on a 235-vote swing. Huh, if we took into account the full swing, this match would be a lot closer to losing out on the record than it is. (Also, MGS2's biggest lead was just 15 minutes into the match.)
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#246 | Sorozone | Posted 8/22/2013 3:39:14 PM | message detail
California is really what is killing Luigi here. Not only is Big Boss wining that state, Ness has a much higher percentage compared to other states.
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#247 | ZFS | Posted 8/22/2013 3:41:30 PM | message detail
It would be Ness ruining it
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#248 | im317 | Posted 8/22/2013 3:47:25 PM | message detail
i have been thinking about it and i think the general view on effective vote stuffing is wrong. well a rally gives a stuffer some cover, stuffing 10k votes for 1 character will still stand out in a 85k vote match. where as stuffing 7.5k votes for 1 character and stuffing another 2.5k votes split between 2 other characters, say 60/40, will look more organic. plus it allows the stuffer to create there own cover.

say they actually stuff 20k votes, but in a 14/3.5/2.5 split. that will just make the rally look larger then it actually is, well still giving 70% to one character. they can also keep 5 minute splits less suspicious by stuffing some for the other characters as well. a 60/25/35 update looks way more natural then a 75/x/x update.
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"L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember
"L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass"
#249 | nkansas13 | Posted 8/22/2013 3:51:18 PM | message detail
im317 posted...
i have been thinking about it and i think the general view on effective vote stuffing is wrong. well a rally gives a stuffer some cover, stuffing 10k votes for 1 character will still stand out in a 85k vote match. where as stuffing 7.5k votes for 1 character and stuffing another 2.5k votes split between 2 other characters, say 60/40, will look more organic. plus it allows the stuffer to create there own cover.

say they actually stuff 20k votes, but in a 14/3.5/2.5 split. that will just make the rally look larger then it actually is, well still giving 70% to one character. they can also keep 5 minute splits less suspicious by stuffing some for the other characters as well. a 60/25/35 update looks way more natural then a 75/x/x update.

I honestly don't think anyone's putting that much thought into it.
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#250 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/22/2013 3:54:33 PM | message detail
Well, "Ness ruining it" is the very reason Big Boss was favored in the first place. I'd never take BB over the B-Tier Mario trio in a day match under normal circumstances.
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