Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1125

#151 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 12:19:58 PM | message detail
Bowser slowed his percentage decline a little bit during the actual ASV, which is a bit encouraging for Luigi. It's just that he started so high there wasn't much place for him to go but down. Even then, the decline was so pronounced and precipitous over the course of the entire match that I'm still fairly confident in BB overcoming this.
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#152 | Lopen | Posted 8/22/2013 12:23:31 PM | message detail
I sure hope the ASV has returned. Matches have been so much more boring without it.
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#153 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/22/2013 12:24:19 PM | message detail
#yearofluigi

#yearofASV
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#154 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 12:26:42 PM | message detail
Now that's what I call an ASV
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#155 | TyrekeEvans13 | Posted 8/22/2013 12:28:30 PM | message detail
Who was favored in this anyway?
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The King of Kings
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#156 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/22/2013 12:28:55 PM | message detail
#yearofcheating
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#157 | swirIdude | Posted 8/22/2013 12:30:56 PM | message detail
TyrekeEvans13 posted...
Who was favored in this anyway?


Big Boss
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SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#158 | swordz9 | Posted 8/22/2013 12:33:17 PM | message detail
It would've been amazing if the theme of R1 was YEAR OF LUIGI and everybody had a Luigi hat and/or mustache in their match pics.
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#159 | ZFS | Posted 8/22/2013 12:36:14 PM | message detail
Key point here - California shifted from Big Boss to Luigi!
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#160 | Lopen | Posted 8/22/2013 12:37:02 PM | message detail
#stateofluigi
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#161 | ZFS | Posted 8/22/2013 12:42:20 PM | message detail
Luigi train is here
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#162 | swirIdude | Posted 8/22/2013 12:43:54 PM | message detail
Big Boss going down ;;
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#163 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 12:44:17 PM | message detail
As an estimate, if you give Luigi roughly 70% of Ness's votes he'd be beating Big Boss about 52-48 right now 1v1. That's not a terrible percentage for Punished Snake to be scoring in a day match, as it implies something like 49%+ in a 24 hour match which he could win. It is disappointing, though, considering I personally don't consider Luigi significantly ahead of the Bowser/Kirby pack.

Though I suppose we could put that theory to the test if BB holds on since he'll be facing Kirby next round, assuming no bandwagons for either one.
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#164 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/22/2013 12:44:27 PM | message detail
MGS vote stuffers getting ready for that last clutch update
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F*** BT
#165 | PrinceKaro | Posted 8/22/2013 12:45:15 PM | message detail
you cant hold down the mean green machine
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:3
#166 | ZFS | Posted 8/22/2013 12:46:34 PM | message detail
Well, I would consider Luigi's likely boosted here compared to usual. Don't think Luigi struggles quite the same way Bowser did, for what it's worth.
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#167 | im317 | Posted 8/22/2013 12:48:03 PM | message detail
does anyone here know how to rank things in either excel or Google docs? i manged to get the expert stats together but i cant figure out how to get the rankings.
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#168 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 12:48:09 PM | message detail
I really don't think normal people know much about YEAR OF LUIGI nonsense (even relative to GameFAQs) so I don't put too much stock into a Luigi boost <_<
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#169 | PhoenixNine | Posted 8/22/2013 12:49:11 PM | message detail
Gogo Big Boss!
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#170 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 12:51:24 PM | message detail
Luigi USA edge back up to 3.5, and the map lags the poll so it's probably a shade higher. Naked Snake should cut that again once the mini-ASV has died down but he'll need to maintain a shade better because Europe will also be going to sleep by then.
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#171 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/22/2013 12:51:34 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I really don't think normal people know much about YEAR OF LUIGI nonsense (even relative to GameFAQs) so I don't put too much stock into a Luigi boost <_<


Actually Nintendo done a good job with it IMO
Luigi is everywhere
#172 | ZFS | Posted 8/22/2013 12:52:29 PM | message detail
Year of Luigi is just the marketing name for it, really. What helps, I think, is the number of games focusing on Luigi combined with Nintendo marketing him everywhere. It's the increased presence in people's minds and the popularity of recent games starring him compared to how he usually is. I've always figured that would help turn people to his side in bigger numbers than usual.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#173 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/22/2013 12:53:15 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I really don't think normal people know much about YEAR OF LUIGI nonsense (even relative to GameFAQs) so I don't put too much stock into a Luigi boost <_<


I literally had never heard of it and I thought it was some stupid meme B8 had created with how frequently people spout it out.
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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time
#174 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/22/2013 12:53:28 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I really don't think normal people know much about YEAR OF LUIGI nonsense (even relative to GameFAQs) so I don't put too much stock into a Luigi boost <_<


If you don't think Luigi got stronger you're deluded. Obviously he got stronger, but by how much we'll see. Stupid brat Ness is taking away from his true potential. Luigi could take down Seph. He will take down Seph.
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#175 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 12:54:45 PM | message detail
Yeah, I imagine that some people know about it and are influenced by it, but by and large our voterbase should... not. I don't doubt that Luigi is ahead of the rest of that Nintendo logjam but it would have to be more significant for me not to take this as a disappointing BB performance.
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#176 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/22/2013 12:55:09 PM | message detail
#177 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/22/2013 12:55:58 PM | message detail
I doubt a bunch of WiiU releases boosted Luigi. The people on this site who actually own a WiiU were probably going to vote for Luigi anyway.
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#178 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/22/2013 12:56:27 PM | message detail
StarDrift aka Karma Hunter
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#179 | paulg235 | Posted 8/22/2013 12:56:32 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#180 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/22/2013 12:58:13 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Yeah, I imagine that some people know about it and are influenced by it, but by and large our voterbase should... not. I don't doubt that Luigi is ahead of the rest of that Nintendo logjam but it would have to be more significant for me not to take this as a disappointing BB performance.
Look on the bright side:

Apply a small boost to Luigi 2010 and current Big Boss would have beaten 2010 Sonic!
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#181 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 1:00:02 PM | message detail
Luigi 2010's value is a guess. I suppose if you assume The Boss had a good boost that was hidden, Luigi looks better extrapolating through her, but Amaterasu breaking 40% on Luigi makes her seem unrealistically high (even by her standards), and Nathan Drake somehow *deboosted* after Uncharted 3.
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#182 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/22/2013 1:04:22 PM | message detail | (edited)
Ultimaphazon posted...
I doubt a bunch of WiiU releases boosted Luigi. The people on this site who actually own a WiiU were probably going to vote for Luigi anyway.


lol Wii U. You get rid of the wii U and nothing changes. I'm talking about Mansion 2. The fact that he isn't just lol Mario's brother. Obviously wii U didn't boost luigi. Wi U didn't boost anything, it's a garbage console.
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#183 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/22/2013 1:03:49 PM | message detail
Altair - 32.94%
Lara - 26.82%
Kefka - 40.24%


Lara is going to shock a lot of people.
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#184 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/22/2013 1:04:41 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Luigi 2010's value is a guess. I suppose if you assume The Boss had a good boost that was hidden, Luigi looks better extrapolating through her, but Amaterasu breaking 40% on Luigi makes her seem unrealistically high (even by her standards), and Nathan Drake somehow *deboosted* after Uncharted 3.


A Drake drop isn't that farfetched though. A decline in votals is probably going to hurt casual bait like Drake more than anyone else.
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#185 | ZFS | Posted 8/22/2013 1:04:45 PM | message detail
I don't think it takes a ton to shift GameFAQs's character preferences for someone like Luigi. A few good games (LM2 sold nearly a million copies in NA) and stuff like Year of Luigi is enough to get more support going for him. Not Noble Nine breaking, but you know, good enough to be in that group under them. Above the Bowsers of the world by a fair amount. I dunno, seems weird for the rest of MGS to do well except BB. Helps him if Luigi is better!
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#186 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 1:07:06 PM | message detail
I'd *like* Luigi to be better, and goodness knows I can contort myself into pretzels justifying MGS boosts. I'm just saying it personally doesn't resonate with me. If Big Boss or Luigi can go out next round and lay the smack down on Kirby harder than historical projections would indicate then I'd be more convinced.

Don't see it happening though.
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#187 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/22/2013 1:07:16 PM | message detail
Big Boss might just not have much room to grow because he looks so much like Snake...!
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~War~
#188 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/22/2013 1:08:17 PM | message detail
I'm gonna make 'em give back our past.
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#189 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/22/2013 1:15:02 PM | message detail
Trend chart from the night match:

Time | Sephy | Morrigan | Spyro | Votes
0:05 | 44.46% | 34.02% | 21.52% | 632
1:00 | 48.65% | 28.97% | 22.38% | 5612
2:00 | 51.01% | 29.21% | 19.78% | 3033
3:00 | 50.43% | 29.98% | 19.59% | 2415
4:00 | 52.79% | 26.95% | 20.26% | 1881
5:00 | 52.57% | 25.62% | 21.81% | 1573
6:00 | 51.63% | 24.52% | 23.85% | 1505
7:00 | 53.91% | 24.68% | 21.41% | 1649
8:00 | 55.07% | 23.70% | 21.23% | 3570
9:00 | 53.66% | 22.41% | 23.94% | 2160
10:00 | 53.20% | 25.07% | 21.73% | 2154
11:00 | 53.87% | 23.72% | 22.41% | 2066
12:00 | 53.96% | 24.06% | 21.98% | 2020

Sephiroth starts slow and finishes strong. Morrigan starts off strong and drops a bit as the match goes along. Spyro manages to win one hour over Morrigan.

X-Stats:

Sephiroth – 50.00%
Morrigan Aensland – 33.57%
Midna – 29.96%
Spyro the Dragon – 29.39%
Miles Edgeworth – 27.55%
Agent 47 – 24.56%
Little Mac – 23.96%
Clementine – 21.75%
Reyn – 11.88%

Sephiroth's prediction percentage was 81.88%
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#190 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 1:16:20 PM | message detail
Oh, and it kinda goes without saying that if I'm down on BB I have to be a little down on Snake and that's terrible.

Unless Solid Snake stole Big Boss's MGSV hype boost but what are the odds of Snake doing that to him AGAIN
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#191 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/22/2013 1:17:32 PM | message detail
#192 | swirIdude | Posted 8/22/2013 1:18:44 PM | message detail
Glados should win that on quote alone.
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SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#193 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/22/2013 1:19:18 PM | message detail
swirIdude posted...
Glados should win that on quote alone.


Nay.
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~War~
#194 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/22/2013 1:19:29 PM | message detail
god why won't Ness just die
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#195 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/22/2013 1:19:50 PM | message detail
Epona has the better quote
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Points: 74/99 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Big Boss
#196 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/22/2013 1:19:50 PM | message detail
#197 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/22/2013 1:20:10 PM | message detail
If anyone gets a quote boost, it's Kefka.
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#198 | yoyoyoyrlozer | Posted 8/22/2013 1:21:41 PM | message detail
The Kefka quote is perfect.
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#199 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/22/2013 1:23:02 PM | message detail
Current X-Stats:

Big Boss – 50.00%
Luigi – 49.88%
Balthier Bunansa – 26.22%
Ness – 22.49%
Locke Cole – 18.16%
Jade – 15.86%
Captain Viridian – 15.28%
CATS – 13.96%
Peacock – 13.41%
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#200 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/22/2013 1:23:22 PM | message detail
I'm thinking Lara>Altair. Bigger nostalgia factor, more recent game, and she gets a pic from one of her old titles.
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