Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1125

#451 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 3:05:23 AM | message detail
Hmmm...Kirby has 70% on Crash right now. That looks very familiar, but I can't quite remember where I've seen this before.

Oh right:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1731

It'd sure be nice if Crash could pull off this comeback for the sake of my Expert bracket now that I'm up to 12th place!
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#452 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 3:08:32 AM | message detail
Also, I'm still feelin' pretty good about Ike. I don't think GlaDOS wins either way. Portal's looked bad this contest. And I think Nintendo will once again fall in line to make sure their character gets through if need be.

It's just a matter of whether they'll fight for their friends or ride the horse. I don't think Epona is quite as beloved as B8 thinks she is, so I like Ike.
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#453 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 3:32:23 AM | message detail
Oh right, chart from the day match:

Time | Luigi | Boss | Ness | Votes
0:05 | 45.73% | 43.72% | 10.55% | 199
1:00 | 44.07% | 42.63% | 13.30% | 5137
2:00 | 42.82% | 44.95% | 12.23% | 4073
3:00 | 42.33% | 44.90% | 12.77% | 3501
4:00 | 44.78% | 42.43% | 12.79% | 3113
5:00 | 43.54% | 42.99% | 13.47% | 3066
6:00 | 41.02% | 43.92% | 15.06% | 2901
7:00 | 41.90% | 44.29% | 13.81% | 2513
8:00 | 40.39% | 43.93% | 15.68% | 2290
9:00 | 43.13% | 42.48% | 14.39% | 2015
10:00 | 41.44% | 43.80% | 14.76% | 2073
11:00 | 43.36% | 42.26% | 15.09% | 1822
12:00 | 42.64% | 44.91% | 11.69% | 1719

Just as a testament to how close this match was, neither character had an hour above 45% or below 40% here. Big Boss won 7 hours to Luigi's 5. Oh right, and Ness was in the match, too.

X-Stats:

Big Boss – 50.00%
Luigi – 49.50%
Balthier Bunansa – 26.01%
Ness – 23.76%
Locke Cole – 19.18%
Jade – 15.74%
Captain Viridian – 15.28%
CATS – 14.75%
Peacock – 13.41%

Big Boss's prediction percentage was 33.61%
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#454 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 3:34:22 AM | message detail
Lead under 200 votes now!

Current X-Stats:

Kirby – 50.00%
Terra Branford – 44.04%
Elizabeth – 32.29%
Crash Bandicoot – 31.15%
Wheatley – 28.86%
Poison – 28.67%
Princess Peach Toadstool – 26.80%
Thrall – 24.58%
Tommy Vercetti – 20.34%
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#455 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 3:34:57 AM | message detail
Lead under 200 darn you Elizabeth don't do this
#456 | Achromatic | Posted 8/23/2013 3:38:51 AM | message detail
I think the morning may not be kind to Crash since he has been taking Kirby's numbers and Liz has been steady as a rock. But it is hard to say.
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#457 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 3:40:12 AM | message detail
Crash actually did his best work at the end of the match last round, so I think he's still got a shot at it.
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#458 | Achromatic | Posted 8/23/2013 3:44:35 AM | message detail
Not so much about Crash to me as Kirby. Maybe they double team Liz though I don't know.

I mean Liz was steady as it went in her first match too for the most part so... yeah.
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!
#459 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 3:46:45 AM | message detail
#460 | Achromatic | Posted 8/23/2013 3:47:39 AM | message detail
I am literally feeling bad for Liz here. She's just minding her own business, staying in the mid 24%, and Kirby is just blowing.

:(
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!
#461 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/23/2013 3:53:10 AM | message detail
Is Kirby blowing or sucking?
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#462 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/23/2013 3:53:42 AM | message detail
#463 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 4:00:00 AM | message detail
Can Kirby stop Crashing
#464 | Achromatic | Posted 8/23/2013 4:02:26 AM | message detail
Kirby is starting to exhale the suck.
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
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#465 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/23/2013 4:03:16 AM | message detail
145 more to go with 5 hours left. You can do it, Crash.
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#466 | Achromatic | Posted 8/23/2013 4:03:26 AM | message detail
...I just realized Crash is winning the UK.

What the **** lol.
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!
#467 | shane15 | Posted 8/23/2013 4:26:49 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
...I just realized Crash is winning the UK.

What the **** lol.


We have good taste over here
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#468 | Achromatic | Posted 8/23/2013 4:27:42 AM | message detail
Matches like these are why the expert challenge idea is awesome, tbh.

So much fun.
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!
#469 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/23/2013 4:29:03 AM | message detail
Man, I hope Crash burns, and this is coming from someone that bit on Crash > Elizabeth.

(yeah, I'm still sore about Wheatley)
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#470 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/23/2013 4:38:28 AM | message detail
Hahaha, battle of the suck going on here (and I'm not talking about one of the two Sephiroth-killers next round).

Anyway, I'm happy with yesterday's result. It shows Luigi > Big Boss 1v1 and is a beast who just got s***ty bracket placement, and now Sephiroth's actually going to get threatened next round instead of being handed LFF between two strong Nintendo characters.

The only problem is that we won't get Sephiroth being crushed by the epic Draven/Mewtwo match after Big Boss and Kirby both beat him down!
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#471 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 4:40:35 AM | message detail
I dunno
Kirby getting cut by Crash doesn't sound that good really
#472 | Solfadore | Posted 8/23/2013 4:43:22 AM | message detail
Kirby is definitely not beating Sephiroth. Can't say for BB though.

4 hours and 17 minutes to erase that 129 vote lead, Crash. You can do it!
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#473 | Achromatic | Posted 8/23/2013 4:51:59 AM | message detail
Good night, sweet prince.

Crash Bandicoot did pretty okay for himself this contest.
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!
#474 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/23/2013 5:01:37 AM | message detail
Is this the kiddies waking up? Crash is losing all the progress he made earlier and I doubt he will be able to recover.
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#475 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/23/2013 5:02:19 AM | message detail
Yes, Ness is a hindrance to Luigi but at the same time, it being a day match is a handicap for Big Boss. Think Big Boss would score around 49.5% on Year of Luigi in a standard 1vs1 24 hour match, that should be enough to put Kirby away.

However, Kirby will indubitably stand out like a sore thumb against 2 playstation-based characters, so can't say who wins. Big Boss vs Kirby will be a barnburner, that's for sure.
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#476 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/23/2013 5:06:56 AM | message detail
Kirby upsetting Seph would make this contest completely satisfying, despite Draven or whatever, as low of a chance as it has.
#477 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/23/2013 5:07:44 AM | message detail
It's funny how Elizabeth is in the 24% for 8 hours
#478 | abdou | Posted 8/23/2013 6:13:19 AM | message detail
wow Kirby went down so much since I last checked. I think the real battle will be between BB and Sephiroth next round,
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#479 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/23/2013 6:13:25 AM | message detail
Kirby still falling
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#480 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 6:17:29 AM | message detail
Crash did well overnight, Elizabeth may stall out the rest of the poll though.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 85/105 Today's Picks: Kirby and Solid Snake
#481 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/23/2013 6:24:01 AM | message detail
If Poison=Haggar than Jill > Kirby.

Return to 2002 confirmed
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#482 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/23/2013 6:45:17 AM | message detail
Ultimaphazon posted...
Is this the kiddies waking up? Crash is losing all the progress he made earlier and I doubt he will be able to recover.


Hey, it's not over yet!
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#483 | spooky96 | Posted 8/23/2013 6:55:11 AM | message detail
Meh Elizabth don't fall now I have you 2nd >_>
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Beggars can't be choosers. gg Link.
#484 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 6:55:38 AM | message detail
Match XCI: (1) Solid Snake vs. (6) Alucard vs. (9) Bayonetta

Previous Round

Solid Snake – 71.21%
Isaac – 20.32%
Commander Keen – 8.48%

Alucard – 36.32%
Captain Falcon – 35.95%
Rydia – 27.73%

Bayonetta – 49.50%
N – 28.78%
Wander – 21.73%

Analysis

Solid Snake looked quite impressive last round, even if all he did was blowout Isaac and Keen. Snake should have no issue winning this match, but the match will be used as measurement on his chance at defeating Cloud so an impressive performance is needed. Though with the way Final Fantasy VII has been looking maybe all he needs is a passable performance.

In a match that went almost exactly as the x-stats predicted Alucard used the morning vote to prevent Falcon from coming back. While he has no chance against Snake I feel quite confident that he can defeat Bayonetta. Dracula’s performance earlier this round is a bit concerning, but I always expected him to be weaker than Alucard. I am more concerned about his performance on Rydia, it would not be the first time two characters decreased at the same rate, but Old Square has been looking quite decent in this contest.

While Bayonetta may have some strength I do not see her winning over Alucard. She failed to outdo Captain Falcon’s performance against Wander and I think Wander has good reason to be weaker in this contest. Still in a contest where new characters have been flopping left and right it is nice to see that a fresh face can be more than fodder.

Snake should be able to break 50% in this match. Link was able to break 70% on Alucard in 2010 and with Bayonetta expected to be even weaker that mark for Snake should be possible, even considering Snake is weaker than Link. Alucard’s strength always impressed me, I know he makes cameos, but his last major performance was over 15 years ago and he is still going strong.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Solid Snake > Captain Falcon and Bayonetta

charmander6000’s Prediction: Solid Snake – 53.43%, Alucard – 25.73%, Bayonetta – 20.84%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 85/105 Today's Picks: Kirby and Solid Snake
#485 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/23/2013 6:57:05 AM | message detail
Liz is starting to fade a little
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#486 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/23/2013 7:01:39 AM | message detail
124 votes, 2 hours left

Crash pls
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#487 | StarStormScream | Posted 8/23/2013 7:04:48 AM | message detail
Gotta say, even with the Draven thing, the 2nd Round as been a lot of fun thus far. Makes up for the 1st Round dragging on as long as it did.
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#488 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 7:05:06 AM | message detail
24 updates, 124 votes means 5.16 votes per update.
#489 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/23/2013 7:06:19 AM | message detail
109!

CRASH PLS
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#490 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 7:07:54 AM | message detail
Based on the last half hour, Crash takes the lead at 10:45.

Based on the last hour, Crash takes the lead at 11:45.
#491 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/23/2013 7:13:54 AM | message detail
Hold on Elizabeth!
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#492 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 7:22:29 AM | message detail
20 updates remaining. 112 vote lead. Crash needs 5.6 votes per update.
#493 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/23/2013 7:28:02 AM | message detail
Based on both the last half-hour and the last hour, Crash will not take the lead until after the poll ends.
#494 | Korayashi | Posted 8/23/2013 7:29:17 AM | message detail
Based on the last 20 minutes Crash has run out of support at the worst possible time.
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#495 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/23/2013 7:32:34 AM | message detail
Europe's influence is beginning to fade isn't it?
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#496 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/23/2013 7:33:38 AM | message detail
get this to 500
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#497 | spooky96 | Posted 8/23/2013 7:35:34 AM | message detail
Yup, Crash is done. Yay +18
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Beggars can't be choosers. gg Link.
#498 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/23/2013 7:38:56 AM | message detail
Come on Crash, get it under 100
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Points: 85/105 Today's Picks: Kirby and Solid Snake
#499 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/23/2013 7:38:59 AM | message detail
So close, yet so far...
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#500 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/23/2013 7:39:12 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CzX2JUqDuI
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