Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1125

#1 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:10:12 AM | message detail
Darkness comes to Hyrule. Light the beacons.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#2 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/22/2013 10:11:33 AM | message detail
Draven over/under 80%
Link over/under 16%
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#3 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/22/2013 10:27:04 AM | message detail
I'm going to be honest. I always wondered why Ness got any credit in these battles. He's never done that well at all.

Same here. His win against Locke doesn't even seem that impressive considering that it's pretty likely Locke's just that weak.
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#4 | superange128 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:27:31 AM | message detail
"That was some fancy vote cutting. You're pretty good"
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#5 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 10:28:45 AM | message detail
Big Boss's cuts are steady, which is encouraging. Bowser had not yet begun to do his heavy bleeding against Subz and Boss so far.
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http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#6 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:30:28 AM | message detail | (edited)
Against Draven, who is turbofodder on Gamefaqs and a Shepard who will be turned into turbofodder, with 24 hours, 2k8 Link might come in around there, yeah.

You do realize we'll be struggling to break 50k in a match? While I expect the match to attract more people we aren't going to be breaking 68k (without a rally), let alone for just Link.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 74/99 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Big Boss
#7 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/22/2013 10:30:17 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
I'm going to be honest. I always wondered why Ness got any credit in these battles. He's never done that well at all.

Same here. His win against Locke doesn't even seem that impressive considering that it's pretty likely Locke's just that weak.


Ugh do I have to be the person to do this

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1738
Beats Jak easily

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1760
Holds up well against Auron

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2067
Upsets CJ

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2882
Does relatively well against Alucard/Liquid

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3791
Doubles Geno

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3824
Holds well up to 2010 Big Daddy (who did better on Tifa than Gordon did)

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5166
Wins against an Old Square character with ease, in a contest where Old Square kicked ass


Ness isn't the strongest but these comments that pop up in every one of his matches are getting annoying and not rooted in reality whatsoever.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#8 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:33:09 AM | message detail
To be fair Ness was expected to win over Big Daddy
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 74/99 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Big Boss
#9 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/22/2013 10:33:31 AM | message detail
That wasn't even Carl Johnson. And if Vincent has taught us anything, pictures are huge.

But you're right. He isn't that bad. I guess I just expect him (and Wario) to do a bit better relative to the other Nintendo characters.
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Brawl FC - 1332 8069 6690
http://i.imgur.com/OZ9aS.png
#10 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/22/2013 10:33:46 AM | message detail
People also didn't expect Big Daddy 2010 to be stronger than Gordon, but he was.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#11 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/22/2013 10:34:33 AM | message detail
It's a 24 hour match. With the most vote-attracting character in contest history, and no LFF. In the quarterfinals. I agree that 68k is still a very tall order, but, say, 64k seems okay.

But remember, the 55/40/5 split gives Link 42% on Draven, and 89% on Shepard, both of which are very optimistic. My earlier figures were pointing more towards Link at 40% on Draven. The 55/40/5 was chosen for a quick estimate because the numbers were nice and round.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#12 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 10:37:08 AM | message detail
ya go my BB

metal gear fans are saving this contest
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http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#13 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:37:32 AM | message detail
These constant, steady cuts are beautiful.

Kind of surprised at it, really! Figured one of them would have a bigger update somewhere along the way.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#14 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/22/2013 10:37:54 AM | message detail
6 in a row.....is that a trend?

Fun fact: Samus cut Mario 6 updates in a row once.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#15 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:39:17 AM | message detail
You also need to take into account Draven let up towards the end and fans had little incentive to push harder since he was winning so easily.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 74/99 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Big Boss
#16 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:39:27 AM | message detail
GloryChaos posted...
That wasn't even Carl Johnson. And if Vincent has taught us anything, pictures are huge.

But you're right. He isn't that bad. I guess I just expect him (and Wario) to do a bit better relative to the other Nintendo characters.


http://gta.wikia.com/Artworks#Grand_Theft_Auto:.C2.A0San_Andreas
This page list it as being "OG Loc" but I dunno really
#17 | ZFS | Posted 8/22/2013 10:39:55 AM | message detail
Dammit Ness why are you here
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#18 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/22/2013 10:40:47 AM | message detail
You also need to take into account Draven let up towards the end and fans had little incentive to push harder since he was winning so easily.

That's the elephant in the room here. Though really, the most likely explanation is stuffing. How do you rally 60k votes from a group of only 330,000 subscribers in 12 hours, most of it in the middle of the night? Seems impossible.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#19 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 10:41:43 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
These constant, steady cuts are beautiful.

Kind of surprised at it, really! Figured one of them would have a bigger update somewhere along the way.


n_n
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http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#20 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/22/2013 10:41:45 AM | message detail
*Salutes*
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Zinsanity of the Helix Board
#21 | im317 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:41:52 AM | message detail
Elizabeth or Crash?
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"L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember
"L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass"
#22 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/22/2013 10:41:59 AM | message detail
Lead change!
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#23 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/22/2013 10:42:19 AM | message detail
Well damn, that was a cut alright. Big Boss is taking Luigi down!
#24 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/22/2013 10:42:25 AM | message detail
Now watch Luigi randomly build up another lead.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
#25 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/22/2013 10:42:39 AM | message detail
KARMA HUNTER
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#26 | ZFS | Posted 8/22/2013 10:42:51 AM | message detail
I see Big Boss is vote stuffing his way to victory
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#27 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/22/2013 10:42:52 AM | message detail
Kirby is going to make Crash look bad. I'd take him otherwise, but all the 'cutesy mascot / apathy vote' votes are going straight to Kirby.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#28 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:43:12 AM | message detail
Elizabeth or Crash?

Crash, was not impressed by Elizabeth or Bioshock in general
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 74/99 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Big Boss
#29 | swirIdude | Posted 8/22/2013 10:43:13 AM | message detail
This is why I love contests.
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#30 | swordz9 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:43:49 AM | message detail
Dammit Big Boss quit getting in the way of YEAR OF LUIGI.
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#31 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/22/2013 10:43:57 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
You also need to take into account Draven let up towards the end and fans had little incentive to push harder since he was winning so easily.

That's the elephant in the room here. Though really, the most likely explanation is stuffing. How do you rally 60k votes from a group of only 330,000 subscribers in 12 hours, most of it in the middle of the night? Seems impossible.


lol
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#32 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:43:58 AM | message detail
hahaha

i kind of thought my saying that would ruin it.

but i was expecting the luigi gain variant

i'm okay with this one!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#33 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/22/2013 10:44:28 AM | message detail
Jesus Christ, you know what that was...

http://www.tofslie.com/hey/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/8zkzm1.gif
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg
#34 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/22/2013 10:44:41 AM | message detail
By the way, according to TRENDS, this is when Big Boss needs to be doing this. Luigi is going to win the last half of the match...probably.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#35 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/22/2013 10:45:20 AM | message detail
Nah, it only gets better for Big Boss from here on out. Just look at Bowser/Boss.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#36 | 2Dover3D | Posted 8/22/2013 10:46:01 AM | message detail
#37 | ZFS | Posted 8/22/2013 10:46:27 AM | message detail
LUIGI
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#38 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/22/2013 10:46:28 AM | message detail
Bowser was not the main attraction of that match, and he was obviously frontloaded. Luigi is, and was not.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#39 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:46:31 AM | message detail
Luigi not down
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 74/99 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Big Boss
#40 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/22/2013 10:46:35 AM | message detail
I think we need to let Big Boss pick up a bit of a lead so the cheaters are placated and go away
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#41 | im317 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:46:55 AM | message detail
i wish i hadn't gone chalk on the first 31 matches in expert. it put me in the negatives when i started to give it actual thought. that said i was burned on Dracula/Barret, Vincent/Phoenix and The Boss/Sub-Zero so i might no pick. but with a measly 158 points(176 if Boss holds this lead) i probably need to take risks to do half decent. is there any way to check what place im in?
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"L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember
"L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass"
#42 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:47:10 AM | message detail
Luigi just correcting for that Big Boss update! We can just pretend Big Boss just had 2 of his usual cuts and brought it down to a lead of 5!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#43 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 10:47:33 AM | message detail
Judo, eh?

Put him down with this next update, Big Boss, and the struggle is over. Good hunting.
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Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#44 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:48:42 AM | message detail
The only way to figure out your place in Expert if you aren't on the leaderboard is to manually count out how many people have better scores than you. Which is just terrible given how that chart is regardless of where you actually are on it.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#45 | im317 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:50:02 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
The only way to figure out your place in Expert if you aren't on the leaderboard is to manually count out how many people have better scores than you. Which is just terrible given how that chart is regardless of where you actually are on it.


i figured as much, thanks. maybe i will look into the page source
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"L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember
"L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass"
#46 | swirIdude | Posted 8/22/2013 10:51:54 AM | message detail
Boss will not be deterred by Luigi's advances!
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#47 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:51:55 AM | message detail
In the lead once more!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#48 | _Harmonica_ | Posted 8/22/2013 10:52:11 AM | message detail
WHOOOOAAAA-HOOOOO

UPDATES THAT KILL
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the surprise was vampires!
#49 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/22/2013 10:52:19 AM | message detail
#50 | ZFS | Posted 8/22/2013 10:52:33 AM | message detail
worst we might as well have a Pokemon champion
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tune in tokyo 142.94