Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1124

#401 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/22/2013 9:34:58 AM | message detail
I'm almost always a pragmatist. It's why I don't make a very good sports fan.
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#402 | superange128 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:34:58 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
ZFS posted...
ExThaNemesis posted...
why do you people like luigi so damn much

palette swap

seriously


I mean Big Boss and Snake are literally clones!

Indeed.

Mario and Luigi at least have distinct personalities.

Not to mention, different names. Literally Snake and Snake.


Big Boss and Solid Snake are different in terms of personality/development as well though

Big Boss in MGS3 starts out fine but with stuff that happens to the Boss and to see what he becomes in MGS5/MG1 is an obvious downward spiral into REVENGE

Snake on the other hand starts pretty grumpy due to his experiences in MG1/2 but thanks to Otacon/Meryl/his other helpers he starts to use his love of fighting for good purposes in MGS2/4
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#403 | swirIdude | Posted 8/22/2013 9:35:03 AM | message detail
BOSS SAUCE!
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#404 | swordz9 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:35:28 AM | message detail
Damn Ness being in this match. Just voted Luigi and noticed he's 1 vote away from Big Boss.
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#405 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/22/2013 9:35:39 AM | message detail
The difference between Solid Snake and Big Boss is that Snake is a good character while BB is a bad character
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#406 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:36:07 AM | message detail
I feel we could be in for a votal explosion in the range of Mario/Cloud, just on Gamefaqs, before even accounting for Draven's rallying. That would help Link, if it happens.

In any case, I don't think Draven can come anywhere near a tripling; would not expect his rally to grow any bigger. I think Link is likely to break 40%, actually. Now, winning- that's very hard. But I'd still put Link's probability of winning at 10-20%. All sorts of unexpected things can happen. That's what I tell the people who say every year that Link has a 99% chance of winning every contest for the next 10 years. Nope- more like 80% chance of winning the very next year!
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#407 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:36:18 AM | message detail
Not sure how this ends up but Ness probably saved me because I probably would have gone for Big Boss > Luigi 1v1 as an upset!
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#408 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:36:39 AM | message detail
#409 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:37:00 AM | message detail
curse you luigi
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#410 | Achromatic | Posted 8/22/2013 9:37:19 AM | message detail
Is this going to be one of those matches.
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#411 | superange128 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:37:19 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
The difference between Solid Snake and Big Boss is that Snake is a good character while BB is a bad character


Well I think this too but I was trying to be objective..
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#412 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/22/2013 9:37:24 AM | message detail
Year of Luigi!
#413 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 9:37:25 AM | message detail
Not a problem, BB, just the expected spike after a lead change. Pull the reversal and keep pummeling him. Stamina is the key here - he can't keep up a fight too much longer.
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#414 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:38:14 AM | message detail
Patience......
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#415 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/22/2013 9:38:15 AM | message detail
Objectivity is for squares. I will not let THE TRUTH be silenced!

Also, which one of you is stuffing for Luigi.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#416 | swordz9 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:38:32 AM | message detail
I wish Luigi could get himself a championship. He can't be in Mario's shadow forever.
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#417 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/22/2013 9:39:32 AM | message detail
Interesting. I did switch to BB in my expert but my bracket has Luigi even with Ness there, I think this match proves that Luigi is now a step above the Kirby/Bowser/Yoshi circle.
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#418 | tgs2 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:40:22 AM | message detail
Link is going to be lucky to break 30% unless the theory someone posted on the board about Draven's massive vote increase in round 2 being the result LoL being down during the match is true.
#419 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/22/2013 9:40:23 AM | message detail
Awyeah, Big Boss.
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IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#420 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:40:57 AM | message detail
Not sure how this ends up but Ness probably saved me because I probably would have gone for Big Boss > Luigi 1v1 as an upset!

Same and with The Boss looking so good yesterday too I was even more confident with that pick
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Points: 74/99 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Big Boss
#421 | creativename | Posted 8/22/2013 9:41:02 AM | message detail
Funny thing is that while Link is clearly at his weakest in his contest career, next round we will see the strongest Link we'll have ever seen. The Gamefaqs community will rally unanimously behind the LAW - Nintendo fans, Square fans, WRPG fans, everyone.

Shepard would probably be at 30% on Link normally but he'll be lucky to get 15% on Link here, good chance he'll fall to single digits on Link.

And yet Link will still probably lose handily. Blargh.
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#422 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/22/2013 9:42:18 AM | message detail
I wish we could rally Shepard instead D:
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#423 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:42:27 AM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
Link is going to be lucky to break 30% unless the theory someone posted on the board about Draven's massive vote increase in round 2 being the result LoL being down during the match is true.


It will even out with the desire to dethrone Link
#424 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 9:43:27 AM | message detail
Hey Big Boss has a lot of time to look impressive! Still in the Power Hour, in the middle of the day! I got faith in a 24 hour match 1v1 so far believe
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#425 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/22/2013 9:43:33 AM | message detail
I don't think it'll be that different. Ryu wound up right about where we expected against Mega Man X.
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#426 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/22/2013 9:44:10 AM | message detail
cmon Big Boss, gotta make my bracket look good
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#427 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/22/2013 9:46:20 AM | message detail
And that's why they call him Big Boss. He is a dosu.
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#428 | Qwaar | Posted 8/22/2013 9:46:38 AM | message detail
Could this be the end?
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#429 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/22/2013 9:47:34 AM | message detail
The Year of Luigi SHALL NEVER DIE
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#430 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/22/2013 9:47:44 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I don't think it'll be that different. Ryu wound up right about where we expected against Mega Man X.


X actually got 58% on Ryu, which is a pretty fantastic result for him. It's what the actual Mega Man got on him.

By the way, now that we've seen Mega Man character unanimously rock the house, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Ike might have actually impressed in his match. If we had seen every other MM-related result before that match, I probably would've switched to Proto Man in my expert bracket.
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#431 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/22/2013 9:48:07 AM | message detail
Big Boss Power Hour over.

Time for The Nation of Nintendomination to rise.
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#432 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:48:29 AM | message detail
Luigi is..crazy
Ever since he beat Zero,i'm afraid of him
I don't think it's an exaggeration to say he is top 5 strongest character after the Noble Nine
#433 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:50:28 AM | message detail
Okay, let's look at what Link can expect. I'm going to assume that he can temporarily boost back up to his 2008 strength with GameFAQs uniting around him and all the anti-votes vanished. This is a big help, because 2008 Link goes like 56/44 with current Link.

Link got 40.28% against Mario + MMX + Zack. And this was a Zack who was worth 30% on 2k8 Link at the time- i.e. stronger than Ryu. Give 75% of Mario's votes to Link and Link gets 56.53% against MMX + Zack.

75% might be a bit too high, but then, 2k8 Zack is also stronger than Ryu, so overall, that's probably a pretty good estimate. Now, Draven got 66.52% against MMX + Ryu, in a night match. He was sinking very fast towards the end of the poll, so let's assume he would have gotten 64% in a 24 hour poll.

Then Link is projected to get 41.41% on Draven. The vast majority of Shepard's votes are going to be coming out of Link's, unfortunately, so we have to adjust him down a bit- let's say 40-41%.

So I think Link has a great shot of getting 40% on Draven. To win, he needs a combination of downvoting of Draven's rallies, his own rallying, and a general GameFAQs votal explosion a la Mario/Cloud to be enough to make up a 60/40 gap.
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#434 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:50:58 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Big Boss Power Hour over.

Time for The Nation of Nintendomination to rise.

more like we've entered the luigi desperation power half hour.

big boss just needs to hold out a little longer
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#435 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/22/2013 9:51:14 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I don't think it'll be that different. Ryu wound up right about where we expected against Mega Man X.


X actually got 58% on Ryu, which is a pretty fantastic result for him. It's what the actual Mega Man got on him.

By the way, now that we've seen Mega Man character unanimously rock the house, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Ike might have actually impressed in his match. If we had seen every other MM-related result before that match, I probably would've switched to Proto Man in my expert bracket.


Ike did about as expected in his match. Proto Man has to be one of the strongest characters to never win a match.
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#436 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/22/2013 9:51:29 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Fact or Fiction: Link/Draven breaks 150,000 votes.


Pretty sure that will definitely happen. Draven's round 2 match was definitely going to break 120000 votes if it had ran for 24 hours. And there will also be rallies for Link as well, so that makes 150000 possible.
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#437 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:51:37 AM | message detail
Luigi taking charge now
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Points: 74/99 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Big Boss
#438 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/22/2013 9:51:48 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
I wish Luigi could get himself a championship. He can't be in Mario's shadow forever.


Okay, while it wouldn't quite be the same as a true chmapionship, here's what we should do some time.

Put all of the Noble Niners on one side of the bracket and fill out the rest of that side of the bracket with fodder. (Make sure that this is a non-seeded tournament like the fourway tournaments were, because nobody will take it seriously if there are actual seed numbers.) Stick all of the midcarders on the other side. We finally get to determine who the top non-Noble Niner is without having to resort to retiring the Noble Nine again.

(Note: this is a horrible idea. But it would probably draw marginally less whining than retiring characters again would.)
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#439 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/22/2013 9:51:50 AM | message detail
big boss more like big bust LOL
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#440 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/22/2013 9:52:05 AM | message detail
It might not be an exaggeration to say he is Top 2 strongest. Of course, it's a coin flip in all those inter-Nintendo matches against Ganondorf/Zelda/the best Pokemon, but I think Luigi would do very well, and I sure as hell ain't taking Auron or Tifa against this guy. Squall vs Luigi in a fair match... man we NEED that rematch.
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#441 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/22/2013 9:52:26 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Okay, let's look at what Link can expect. I'm going to assume that he can temporarily boost back up to his 2008 strength with GameFAQs uniting around him and all the anti-votes vanished. This is a big help, because 2008 Link goes like 56/44 with current Link.

Link got 40.28% against Mario + MMX + Zack. And this was a Zack who was worth 30% on 2k8 Link at the time- i.e. stronger than Ryu. Give 75% of Mario's votes to Link and Link gets 56.53% against MMX + Zack.

75% might be a bit too high, but then, 2k8 Zack is also stronger than Ryu, so overall, that's probably a pretty good estimate. Now, Draven got 66.52% against MMX + Ryu, in a night match. He was sinking very fast towards the end of the poll, so let's assume he would have gotten 64% in a 24 hour poll.

Then Link is projected to get 41.41% on Draven. The vast majority of Shepard's votes are going to be coming out of Link's, unfortunately, so we have to adjust him down a bit- let's say 40-41%.

So I think Link has a great shot of getting 40% on Draven. To win, he needs a combination of downvoting of Draven's rallies, his own rallying, and a general GameFAQs votal explosion a la Mario/Cloud to be enough to make up a 60/40 gap.


Unlikely, some (yoblazer) might say.

Impossible? Definitely not.
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#442 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:52:55 AM | message detail
Okay, time to break out the trends for some reassurance that everything is still fine!
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#443 | swordz9 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:53:24 AM | message detail
With all the focus Nintendo has given Luigi this year it wouldn't be surprising to see him boost this contest. They've been advertising the hell out of him.
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#444 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/22/2013 9:53:58 AM | message detail
WHY IS KIRBY GOING TO BE IN THE NEXT MATCH I WOULD'VE TOTALLY TAKEN LUIGI>SEPHIROTH
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#445 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/22/2013 9:54:05 AM | message detail
Is this gonna be another one of those "SFFed, but still won" matches?
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#446 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 9:55:47 AM | message detail | (edited)
Bowser fell 4.5% relative to The Boss from this point, which was more or less the last time he saw a significant percentage rise in that match. C'mon, Big Boss! Don't let her work be in vain!

Edit: Though obviously The Boss didn't have nearly the bracket support, so that is optimistic but ultimately should be something muted even if it bears out.
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#447 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:54:31 AM | message detail
Link got 21k votes against Isaac and Tingle
Adding votes that he can leech from Draven rally (which as Lopen said,was maximum 10% for X..?) we talk about 30k votes..max
Draven is going to have more than 60k votes
Good luck
#448 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/22/2013 9:54:54 AM | message detail
I think Luigi is a big favorite. This isn't like yesterday's match where Bowser had the win in hand and voters could dink around between two weaker characters. If Big Boss has the lead in a few hours, Luigi's day vote will give him whatever he needs to pull through.

Wonderful time for MGS to have its first bad match of the contest.
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#449 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/22/2013 9:55:06 AM | message detail
Luigi is definitely the strongest of the regular Nintendo near-elites now in my mind. I would not take Dorf, Zelda, Bowser, Yoshi or Kirby over him.

The Pokemon, specifically Zard, could be stronger though.
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#450 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/22/2013 9:55:18 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
With all the focus Nintendo has given Luigi this year it wouldn't be surprising to see him boost this contest. They've been advertising the hell out of him.


Which makes it all the more of a shame that he's facing a lot of SFF - damn you Kirby and Ness.
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