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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1124
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Anyone still doubt Midna was LFFed? --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
NOBODY saw Samus/Tifa coming until it was happening before our eyes Maybe not as bad as it turned out, but some people expected it. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 74/99 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Big Boss |
It's brackets that feel it the worst, because you just flatout can't predict that. Expert Challenge is theoretically immune to it because you can react if you're around at the right time. I stubbornly stuck to Vincent but I did have the knowledge to change if I wanted. It's not as "bad" as rallies, IMO because I think you can reasonably expect a limit both on effect and frequency but one bad pic can absolutely destroy a bracket in the right place. Just imagine if Draven hadn't basically eliminated everyone here. Vincent/Mewtwo and Vincent/Sonic both just got trolled. As it is, Draven's rally mostly makes Vincent's path kind of irrelevant for most. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
So,
Big Boss or Luigi? With how close they look from 2010, I can't help
but think that Ness is going to steal enough SSB votes to let Big Boss
sneak in for the win. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Snake
is probably the luckiest contestant in the history of this contest in
terms of bracket placement. That sounds weird considering how often he
gets screwed over by his sprites, but he's almost always gone up against
cupcakes compared to his strength in the sprite round. The only Noble
Niner outside of Clinkeroth to never go below 40% in a 1v1 match. But there's not a single year where Sprite Snake wouldn't have lost to a handful of non-Nobles in the sprite round. Even now, where he is very arguably our #2 character, all it takes is a sprite and a near-elite to kill him. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
One hour stats: Sephiroth 50.00% Morrigan Aensland 37.33% Spyro the Dragon 31.51% Midna 29.96% Miles Edgeworth 27.55% Agent 47 24.56% Little Mac 23.96% Clementine 21.75% Reyn 11.88% --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
The
Snake sprite deal is weird. That shouldn't even have been a thing after
the sprite round became about any appearance instead of the first
appearance only. FFVII guys get a PS1 model, no reason Snake couldn't,
too! --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
The Boss made Bowser look terrible. I think it's safe to call the next match for Big Boss. --- Hey I just met you, and this is crazy, but you have died of dysentery. |
I mean if Sprite Snake goes up against, like, Magus
in 2003 (oh god), Zero in 2004, and Vincent in 2005 then we don't even
have a Noble Nine. We have an Elite Eight, and everything starts looks
mighty confusing in 2006 when underachiever Snake comes out and starts
breaking the Elite Eight in half over his knee. "Hey, maybe we can let Snake in and call it the Noble Nine instead?" "THAT'S STUPID" --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Head
to head Edgeworth got 37.59% against Midna in 2008, he got 36.90%
against Morrigan. Assuming no change Morrigan is expected to get 30.52%
on Sephiroth. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 74/99 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Big Boss |
charmander6000 posted... Head to head Edgeworth got 37.59% against Midna in 2008, he got 36.90% against Morrigan. Assuming no change Morrigan is expected to get 30.52% on Sephiroth. Midna was certainly more relevant in 2008, I wouldn't take anything from that |
Edgeworth is probably stronger this year and Midna weaker. --- Demyx is better than Axel. http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom |
xp1337 posted... It's brackets that feel it the worst, because you just flatout can't predict that. Draven doesn't eliminate anyone. The best guru will almost certainly be either the prize winner or the recipient of the karma boost. You underestimate just how bad any bracket picking Draven to go all the way will be. |
Sephiroth
is quietly making his way to 50% now, but I'm not sure he will reach
that expected, unchanged percentage on Morrigan or not. He should get
within striking distance of it though perhaps. --- Still smilin' :> |
KanzarisKelshen posted... xp1337 posted...It's brackets that feel it the worst, because you just flatout can't predict that. Do you not understand the point progression? The final match is worth a large portion of the total votes, and someone that took Draven to win it all will have several hundred points on the rest of us. The same thing happened in Game of the Decade, where not a single Guru had Majora's Mask winning it all. I won the Guru that contest, but I was nowhere near the leaderboard at the end. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Draven doesn't eliminate anyone. The best guru will almost certainly be either the prize winner or the recipient of the karma boost. You underestimate just how bad any bracket picking Draven to go all the way will be. looking at 2007 and L-Block, doubt it as long as they can get Mario correctly (lol), it would take a screwup of epic proportions to botch it, especially if they get Cloud/Snake correctly too |
Karma Hunter posted... Snake is probably the luckiest contestant in the history of this contest in terms of bracket placement. That sounds weird considering how often he gets screwed over by his sprites, but he's almost always gone up against cupcakes compared to his strength in the sprite round. The only Noble Niner outside of Clinkeroth to never go below 40% in a 1v1 match. Which reminds me, it's kinda surprising that Snake's match with Pikachu in 2010 didn't become a near-miss like a couple others did. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Don't we already have a few scattered people on the board with Draven winning? Just hanging around on Board 8 should be enough to let you cling to what? An automatic 120 point advantage? They don't need to be as good as the top Gurus with that kind of cushion! That's a lot of matches you can miss! Although, it's possible they might also take Teemo far on the same logic and that could undo more than enough. Though honestly, taking Teemo to the finals is a -40 so you still have 80 points to work with which should be enough for anyone with a passing knowledge of how contests work here. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
LeonhartFour posted... One hour stats: God why do you suck so much Reyn --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Midna below Spyro what happened here --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
I
was on board with Draven making the contest fun after round 1. My issue
is more with the terrible Reddit posters and worse LoL fans. I know there are good LoL fans, but the MOBA community as a whole is the worst in gaming. It's a shame that the "f**** f********* you die im reporting scrub trash" people make the genuinely good guys look awful by osmosis, but they do. That crap needs to go away, and with something better than muting the entire lobby before every match. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :( |
Morrigan almost cuts Seph. She & Spyro hellbent on keeping him under 50%, lol. --- Now Playing: Tales of Xillia (Jude Story), Fire Emblem Awakening |
Fayt_Esteed posted... Karma Hunter posted...Snake is probably the luckiest contestant in the history of this contest in terms of bracket placement. That sounds weird considering how often he gets screwed over by his sprites, but he's almost always gone up against cupcakes compared to his strength in the sprite round. The only Noble Niner outside of Clinkeroth to never go below 40% in a 1v1 match. Snake's too strong at this point and Pikachu's too weak. Snake can still die to outsiders in the sprite round, but it takes a legitimate near-elite to do it. Even to a midcard like Pika he was losing for half an hour and ended at only 55%. The effect is always devastating. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/941 --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :( |
So Crash is favored over Elizabeth at this point, right? --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
xp1337 posted... Don't we already have a few scattered people on the board with Draven winning? No, we have no gurus taking Draven to the finals, unless you mean in the Expert bracket, and who gives a **** about the silly side contest? |
AxemRedRanger posted... So Crash is favored over Elizabeth at this point, right? Elizabeth to recieve a "Return to Rapture" boost and triple Crash |
I've got Crash > Elizabeth. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
UltimaterializerX posted... I was on board with Draven making the contest fun after round 1. My issue is more with the terrible Reddit posters and worse LoL fans. LoL is nowhere near as bad as it was before, and I am not fanboying here when I say that. There's been an enormous effort to clean up the community, and between the (mostly) ineffective Tribunal where mob justice is applied and the (mostly) effective Honors system where well-behaved players are rewarded by their peers and the system by facing other good players, the community has gotten way better. Most of my experiences as of late have been very pleasant, in fact. My only issue is that it's almost certainly still a hellhole in the early levels, but there isn't much you can do - DotA is the exact same at that level and it's just impossible to make people behave better without an incentive, which you cannot offer in someone's first match. If you can find an actually effective method to fix the early game, pitch it to Riot, Ulti. They'll pay you a ****load of cash or offer you a job for it. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... No, we have no gurus taking Draven to the finals, unless you mean in the Expert bracket, and who gives a **** about the silly side contest? expert challenge is now more serious than the "main event" THANKS DUDE |
Holy crap Draven won .....with ease o_0 *tears bracket in half* --- Bracket for the Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_code?c=5yiset6iJe2HCg87EdqV1-UnpdF4VgRZC5 |
Um,
Draven's run has almost zero effect on Expert Challenge. Everyone there
just took a hit for the MMX match and can adjust and just take Draven
instead of Link the rest of the way. You already had to know what you
were doing to be near the top there (or be really lucky I guess.) And I never claimed any Guru had Draven winning, why would I make that claim? It's a lot stronger than I need, kind of silly for me to make it. I said there are people on the board that have Draven. Not everyone on Board 8 enters the Guru! I don't, for one. You don't need to enter the Guru contest to be halfway decent at predicting. And if you have Draven winning you really only need to be halfway decent! You might not even need that. Only way the Guru winner wins this contest is if Link or Cloud/Snake win. Just having Draven's path right is worth too many points. Anyone who has any idea what they're doing should be able to maintain a 120 point advantage. I'm not sure you realize how bad at predicting you need to be to lose that. Some Draven brackets probably will. But all of them? No way. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
1337gamerpr0 posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...No, we have no gurus taking Draven to the finals, unless you mean in the Expert bracket, and who gives a **** about the silly side contest? You guys have seriously way too much DravenFear. I'm telling you, it takes inordinately bad bracketmaking skills to pick Draven to win. TRE, can you post the bracket update for Draven's match? I want to give it another look and make a rough prediction of how much of a hole the lucky bracketeers who picked Draven to go far are going to be in come the Final Nine. |
xp1337 posted... Um, Draven's run has almost zero effect on Expert Challenge. Everyone there just took a hit for the MMX match and can adjust and just take Draven instead of Link the rest of the way. You already had to know what you were doing to be near the top there (or be really lucky I guess.) Gonna wait until the bracket chart. I feel really good about every single Draven predictor being complete ass at getting anything else right. |
You
can still win prize money with Draven winning, more than likely.
Several people who didn't have L-Block winning finishing in the prize
money in 2007 (like me). --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
Expert Challenge was always more serious! picking such esteemed matches like kratos aurion v boko is the apex of contest predicting greatness don't deny it. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
LeonhartFour posted... You can still win prize money with Draven winning, more than likely. Several people who didn't have L-Block winning finishing in the prize money in 2007 (like me). I can see this happening. But outright winning? All we need is one person who has the slightest clue of what's going on! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Kanz
is full of it. At least one bracket on the board has Draven winning and
68 points as of two days ago, very likely more now. It is exceedingly
unlikely that the contest winner will not have Draven winning. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
AxemRedRanger posted... So Crash is favored over Elizabeth at this point, right? I originally took Crash over Elizabeth, but after matches like Aerith/Rinoa/Hero and Fox/Blue/Wolf, I'm wondering if Kirby won't SFF Crash into the floor. Thing is, Crash's strength (what little there is of it) is based primarily on his icon and recognizability status. Since Kirby has that in spades (in addition to being the only Nintendo character in the match), I think he's going to steal a lot of Crash's votes, letting Elizabeth slip into second place. This is just a theory, though. Feel free to contradict me if I'm full of crap. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Karma Hunter posted... Kanz is full of it. At least one bracket on the board has Draven winning and 68 points as of two days ago, very likely more now. It is exceedingly unlikely that the contest winner will not have Draven winning. Imma have to see the board odds (and the bracket) to buy that. Where was that thing stashed again? |
A correct Draven run is worth 117 points just for Round 3, 4 and 5. A perfect bracket right now is 99 points. You mean this?: Score-Brackets-% Right 81------1------------0.00 80------7------------0.00 79------7------------0.00 78------30----------0.00 77------66----------0.00 76------77----------0.00 75------81----------0.00 74------98----------0.00 73------118--------1.69 72------136--------6.62 71------128--------7.03 70------175--------6.86 69------214--------6.54 68------330--------12.12 67------384--------9.64 66------474--------9.49 65------575--------9.04 64------708--------11.58 63------758--------12.53 62------869--------15.54 61------922--------13.34 60------911--------11.75 59------887--------16.46 58------801--------11.74 57------747--------10.44 56------665--------7.67 55------605--------6.45 54------517--------4.64 53------445--------5.84 52------431--------5.34 51------381--------6.04 50------312--------3.85 49------261--------4.98 48------291--------7.56 47------202--------3.47 46------208--------4.81 45------220--------6.36 44------141--------5.67 43------131--------3.82 42------123--------2.44 41------107--------2.80 40------110--------7.27 39------81----------2.47 38------69----------7.25 37------59----------5.08 36------49----------6.12 35------52----------9.62 34------52----------5.77 33------40----------7.50 32------30----------3.33 31------17----------5.88 30------21----------4.76 29------16----------0.00 28------17----------0.00 27------8------------0.00 26------8------------0.00 25------11----------9.09 24------4------------25.00 23------4------------0.00 22------8------------12.50 21------3------------33.33 20------5------------0.00 19------3------------33.33 18------3------------33.33 17------2------------0.00 16------1------------0.00 15------0------------0.00 14------1------------0.00 13------4------------0.00 12------0------------0.00 11------1------------0.00 10------13----------0.00 9--------1------------0.00 8--------1------------0.00 7--------0------------0.00 6--------1------------0.00 5--------5------------0.00 4--------0------------0.00 3--------6------------0.00 2--------3------------0.00 1--------1------------0.00 --- Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32 |
Team Rocket Elite posted... A correct Draven run is worth 117 points just for Round 3, 4 and 5. A perfect bracket right now is 99 points. Yeah, I'm crediting Round 2 in here to make it 120 but 117 is the safer number I guess because it's only once Link goes down that things get really out of hand. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Karma Hunter posted...Kanz is full of it. At least one bracket on the board has Draven winning and 68 points as of two days ago, very likely more now. It is exceedingly unlikely that the contest winner will not have Draven winning. no seriously, what you are saying will happen.....didn't even happen with freaking L-Block and the 3-way format makes the final worth proportionally more, making it even harder (not to mention there's technically one less round) |
As
for Crash/Elizabeth I had Elizabeth most of the time but switched to
Crash recently. I'll probably think about it some more later. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Like, with L-Block, I was sure
that someone who suicided with a Cloud > Link final would win the
contest. And those people did very well! (awwwwwwww yiss) But an L-Block
bracket STILL WON THE CONTEST. No way anyone in the Guru wins this thing. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Hm.
Looking at the prediction percentages, I'd feel concerned if the finals
bracket is in the 73 to 66 range. Lower than that and mistakes in the
later rounds (especially failures in predicting the Division of Death
and consequently Snake/Cloud) are going to be extremely costly - get
Snake/Cloud wrong and you lose a third of the advantage you gain from
picking Draven in the finals. It's possible for the gaffes to add up to
the point a properly predicted bracket (minus Draven's run) can win,
especially if some really unlikely events continue to happen
throughout the bracket a la Vincent's superflop. Not a certainty, for
sure, but not impossible either. |
Oh wow, Seph is only getting 63% on MORRIGAN of all characters? GG FF7 --- http://i.minus.com/jbiGPMGVHJkJ5F.png http://i.minus.com/jbjrjeszi5Bojs.jpg http://i.minus.com/jDswy1q7MCAye.jpg http://i.minus.com/jX6dhkFSD8ugm.jpg |
I
believe for the most part the bigger money prize winners for the
bracket half will be Draven backers. It's "easier" to predict Draven's
crazy rally strength compared to L-block's just due to the games they
are both from. I think L-block was already at ~3% after round 2 even
factoring in first/second place combined odds. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Hm. Looking at the prediction percentages, I'd feel concerned if the finals bracket is in the 73 to 66 range. Lower than that and mistakes in the later rounds (especially failures in predicting the Division of Death and consequently Snake/Cloud) are going to be extremely costly - get Snake/Cloud wrong and you lose a third of the advantage you gain from picking Draven in the finals. It's possible for the gaffes to add up to the point a properly predicted bracket (minus Draven's run) can win, especially if some really unlikely events continue to happen throughout the bracket a la Vincent's superflop. Not a certainty, for sure, but not impossible either. Are you kidding me? Cloud/Snake isn't a third of your advantage. Taking a R1 loser into the finals is a third of your advantage! You can take Draven and two R1 losers into the finals and you still come out ahead by 37-40 points! Granted, in this situation you've undoubtedly made enough other mistakes but you really don't seem to get the point progression here. Cloud/Snake is worth 27 points. It's not even a quarter of your advantage from picking Draven to win. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
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