Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1124

#451 | Sorozone | Posted 8/22/2013 9:55:26 AM | message detail
Big Boss winning in the UK is good, but at the same time he is losing to other major Europe countries like Germany and France(albeit close in France), and is also getting handily beaten in the Netherlands.

I somewhat expect the US percentage to close in, but Canada is favoring Luigi by a good margin, they might be the difference that makes Luigi end up with the win.
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#452 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:56:10 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I think Luigi is a big favorite. This isn't like yesterday's match where Bowser had the win in hand and voters could dink around between two weaker characters. If Big Boss has the lead in a few hours, Luigi's day vote will give him whatever he needs to pull through.

Wonderful time for MGS to have its first bad match of the contest.

Yeah, it's probably this which is why now more than ever I need to hear about the trends that will make me feel better!

I need that false hope for as long as possible!
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#453 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:56:40 AM | message detail
The Link that got 21k votes against Isaac and Tingle has no chance against Draven. But the Mario that got 45k votes in 24 hours against Morrigan had no chance against Cloud either. Then he put up 65k votes on Cloud. Link needs a votal explosion just like that.
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#454 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 9:56:53 AM | message detail
just 5 more minutes big boss. 5 more minutes and the power hour will end.
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#455 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/22/2013 9:57:11 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
WHY IS KIRBY GOING TO BE IN THE NEXT MATCH I WOULD'VE TOTALLY TAKEN LUIGI>SEPHIROTH


Would you really? I took Kirby > Seph and people called me crazy. Luigi is probably right around Kirby's level and even if not (ie: even if the Mean Green is a bit stronger), they both would have been at equal strength when trying to upend Sephiroth. The Nintendo fanbase would have supported them both tooth and nail. Too bad this is happening; Sephiroth lucked out because he was gonna look horrible against Kirby next round.
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#456 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/22/2013 9:58:23 AM | message detail
You see, I would've been running on fanboy logic there. Still totally would've done it. Not even fanboy logic can ignore the puffball in the room, though.
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#457 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 9:58:58 AM | message detail
But yeah, Big Boss needs to reverse this around the next update or two. Otherwise the aforementioned trends won't really hold and this trajectory is not encouraging!
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#458 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/22/2013 9:59:25 AM | message detail
Clearly in this match Big Boss is Bowser and Luigi is The Boss.
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#459 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/22/2013 9:59:56 AM | message detail
lmao if Luigi wins he and Kirby are gonna give Seph a free pass to the final 9.
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#460 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:00:07 AM | message detail
The variance is strong. Even at the hourly level. Give Big Boss more time.
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#461 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:00:09 AM | message detail
I believe Luigi could take out Sephiroth,too
But they are going to leech each other to death
48-27-25 sounds right
#462 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:01:10 AM | message detail
Poor Extha. People talking about Luigi > Sephiroth now.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#463 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/22/2013 10:03:38 AM | message detail | (edited)
I think, with the Year of Luigi and a good bandwagon, Luigi could defeat Sephiroth. Nintendo characters bandwagon really well (Kirby, Charizard) and it's possible that he'll beat down Kirby worse than he is Ness.
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#464 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 10:02:19 AM | message detail
See, there we go! String together a few more of those and we're right on set for the trends again. Let's do it!
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#465 | spooky96 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/22/2013 10:03:27 AM | message detail
If this goes on, good for my bracket, because I got Luigi winning this one.
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Beggars can't be choosers. gg Link.
#466 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/22/2013 10:03:29 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
it's possible that he'll beat down Kirby worse than he is Ness.


http://static.fjcdn.com/gifs/stare_00ecc0_982757.gif
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#467 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:04:06 AM | message detail
power hour over

just like the year of luigi
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#468 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/22/2013 10:04:39 AM | message detail
"Year of Luigi" seriously cracks me up.
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#469 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:05:09 AM | message detail
Assuming we end at 55/40/5 (don't think Shep can get pasted that bad, but the numbers are nice and round), and we get 170k votes, Draven wins by 25k votes against Link. Assuming Link 90/10s Draven on Gamefaqs, we need an extra 30k or so votes to even it up. So: we need 200k votes. We need to break the record.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#470 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/22/2013 10:06:19 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
it's possible that he'll beat down Kirby worse than he is Ness.


http://static.fjcdn.com/gifs/stare_00ecc0_982757.gif


Hey, Charizard once went even with Mario, Kirby beat Sonic WITHOUT SFF, crazy things can happen when Nintendo characters are involved.
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#471 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:06:28 AM | message detail
I would say Luigi is easily the strongest 2nd tier Nintendo character. He would beat Bowser, Kirby, Zelda, Yoshi, etc. Only Charizard would pose a problem.
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#472 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 10:09:26 AM | message detail
Kirby doesn't fold. He's never folded. Luigi has a better chance of folding.

And BB, you gotta continue the CQC chaining! I know the temptation to let Luigi back into the game is great but the stakes are too high!
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#473 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/22/2013 10:10:22 AM | message detail
You need to see your foe to CQC them, KH! Luigi is blending into the foliage too well for even Big Boss to catch!
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~War~
#474 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:10:24 AM | message detail
That's 30k on top of the already rallied votes in your example
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Points: 74/99 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Big Boss
#475 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:10:52 AM | message detail
Part of me wants this match to stay really close so in the final hour we can just start spamming MGS3 endgame quotes.

The other part wants Big Boss to just run away with this right now and avoid the chance of things going wrong!
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#476 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:11:44 AM | message detail
That's 30k on top of the already rallied votes in your example

Actually, it's not. That's just the natural strength of Link 2008.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#477 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 10:12:28 AM | message detail
Good job, Naked Snake. If you can pull that one more time it'll be a consecutive, and destroy his momentum for good.
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#478 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/22/2013 10:12:39 AM | message detail
If this holds, Luigi will never have lost in Round 2 since 2005, while Big Boss will suffer his third Round 2 loss in a row.

And thus the winner of Konami's character battle will be forced to wait. I suppose he now hates Mario characters, too.
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#479 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 10:14:22 AM | message detail
Also I can't get over how bad Ness is doing

'loyal Earthbound fanbase' lmao
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#480 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:14:58 AM | message detail
Actually, it's not. That's just the natural strength of Link 2008.

So you think Link can get 68k votes in a regular match?
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Points: 74/99 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Big Boss
#481 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 10:16:56 AM | message detail
That's it! That's the stance!!
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#482 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:17:56 AM | message detail
Also I can't get over how bad Ness is doing

'loyal Earthbound fanbase' lmao


It seems pretty loyal, this is just Ness without SSB.
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Points: 74/99 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Big Boss
#483 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/22/2013 10:18:06 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Also I can't get over how bad Ness is doing

'loyal Earthbound fanbase' lmao


I'm going to be honest. I always wondered why Ness got any credit in these battles. He's never done that well at all. I always believed that the Earthbound fanbase was pitifully small too, until that miiverse thing with Balloon Fighter happened earlier this year.

Unfortunately, he also has to compete with Year of Luigi 2013.
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#484 | superange128 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:18:07 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Kirby doesn't fold. He's never folded. Luigi has a better chance of folding.

And BB, you gotta continue the CQC chaining! I know the temptation to let Luigi back into the game is great but the stakes are too high!


didn't Kirby fold directly to Luigi?
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#485 | ZFS | Posted 8/22/2013 10:18:16 AM | message detail
Luigi still holding! Good stuff!
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#486 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/22/2013 10:18:47 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Assuming we end at 55/40/5 (don't think Shep can get pasted that bad, but the numbers are nice and round), and we get 170k votes, Draven wins by 25k votes against Link. Assuming Link 90/10s Draven on Gamefaqs, we need an extra 30k or so votes to even it up. So: we need 200k votes. We need to break the record.


And breaking the record is a little bit harder since the 2007 match ran for 25 hours because of DST. Even then, the extra hour only gave us an additional 4500 votes or so.
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#487 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 10:19:50 AM | message detail
superange128 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Kirby doesn't fold. He's never folded. Luigi has a better chance of folding.

And BB, you gotta continue the CQC chaining! I know the temptation to let Luigi back into the game is great but the stakes are too high!


didn't Kirby fold directly to Luigi?


I, um.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2544

What do you consider 'folding'
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#488 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/22/2013 10:21:33 AM | message detail
karma hunter is up to his old tricks again, I see
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#489 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 10:21:59 AM | message detail
Year of Luigi

GETTING HIS ASS KICKED
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#490 | ZFS | Posted 8/22/2013 10:22:36 AM | message detail
If Luigi wins, I do think people are more likely to rally around Luigi versus Kirby. This contest has been weird, and with Luigi being Nintendo's character of choice this year, I do think Kirby would fold more than usual. Still, beating Sephiroth with Kirby there requires a bandwagon of some kind.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#491 | xp1337 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:22:51 AM | message detail
This Big Boss comeback giving me wonderful flashbacks of Shepard's comeback against Aerith!

not trend-wise just feeling-wise.
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#492 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/22/2013 10:23:41 AM | message detail
Luigi is winning by almost 5% in the States. Sucks that my Guru chances had to be thwarted this early, but the Draven stuff kinda sorta gives me something to look forward to.
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#493 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/22/2013 10:23:57 AM | message detail
On one hand, YEAR OF LUIGI.

On the other hand, if Big Boss wins Kirby might beat both him and Sephiroth.

...hmm.
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~War~
#494 | swirIdude | Posted 8/22/2013 10:24:52 AM | message detail
There can be room for only one Boss!!
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#495 | ZFS | Posted 8/22/2013 10:25:11 AM | message detail
Just think how often does Luigi get the chance to shine this is the moment Big Boss can have them some other time!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#496 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/22/2013 10:25:14 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Luigi is winning by almost 5% in the States. Sucks that my Guru chances had to be thwarted this early, but the Draven stuff kinda sorta gives me something to look forward to.


The map lags the poll.
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#497 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:25:49 AM | message detail
So you think Link can get 68k votes in a regular match?

Against Draven, who is turbofodder on Gamefaqs and a Shepard who will be turned into turbofodder, with 24 hours, 2k8 Link might come in around there, yeah.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#498 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/22/2013 10:27:11 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
On one hand, YEAR OF LUIGI.

On the other hand, if Big Boss wins Kirby might beat both him and Sephiroth.

...hmm.


The fact that Kirby's 20th anniversary was in 2012 makes me kind of sad that there was no character battle.
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#499 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/22/2013 10:27:24 AM | message detail
Play Earthbound
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#500 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/22/2013 10:27:38 AM | message detail
I'm a Luigi, number one!
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~War~