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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1124
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something something clever ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Beggars can't be choosers. gg Link. |
Welcome to SabotageFAQs --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Crono > Mario, now and forever. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Wow... --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
red sox 777 posted... Mario > Crono, now and forever. FIX'D But man we need a new Mario/Crono regardless. It's not a contest without the great battle of our time! |
Don't worry guys. The Kiddies will go to bed soon. |
If Spyro gets anywhere even close to close to Morrigan in the end, I definitely will discount the idea of Seph/Spyro SFF. Clementine is from the same game as, uh, who was that guy again who almost beat G&W? G&W beats Edgeworth easily. In any case, KK, you ought to re-evaluate your logic because Spyro's numbers are not lying. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those! It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Whoa there - Sephiroth apparently got pissed about bleeding percentage, so he took what he lost back and then some. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Chun-Li struggles to get 30% on Ultra-boob Tifa, yet Morrigan hangs around 40% on Sephiroth...WITHOUT TJF Aww yeah, 2nd strongest Capcom fighting character confirmed :) --- Now Playing: Tales of Xillia (Jude Story), Fire Emblem Awakening |
Sephiroth finally showing up for the match. Several updates late, but hey, at least he's finally rising...slowly... ...Yeah Seph sucks, go Morrigan and Spyro! |
red sox 777 posted... Crono > Mario, now and forever. My dream for this contest is Crono boosting back to the Golden Era levels as an avatar of how things used to be. Blowing out Pikachu and ending up with a respectable performance against Cloud/Snake that puts a real scare into them! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Haste_2 posted... Clementine is from the same game as, uh, who was that guy again who almost beat G&W? G&W beats Edgeworth easily. In any case, KK, you ought to re-evaluate your logic because Spyro's numbers are not lying. Lee Everett. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Trend chart for the day match: Time | Boss | Subby | Bowser | Votes 0:05 | 25.67% | 26.85% | 47.48% | 596 1:00 | 27.53% | 28.38% | 44.09% | 4849 2:00 | 27.89% | 29.45% | 42.66% | 3790 3:00 | 29.91% | 28.76% | 41.33% | 3380 4:00 | 28.58% | 29.28% | 42.14% | 3023 5:00 | 30.64% | 27.40% | 41.97% | 2931 6:00 | 30.55% | 29.21% | 40.24% | 2622 7:00 | 29.14% | 30.08% | 40.78% | 2467 8:00 | 29.88% | 29.84% | 40.28% | 2135 9:00 | 28.09% | 31.88% | 40.03% | 1976 10:00 | 29.21% | 32.21% | 38.59% | 1866 11:00 | 29.08% | 30.85% | 40.07% | 1812 12:00 | 26.08% | 33.04% | 40.88% | 1568 Bowser does well at the beginning. The Boss does well in the middle. Sub-Zero does well at the end. X-Stats: Bowser 50.00% Sub-Zero 41.65% The Boss 41.02% Garrus Vakarian 37.49% Chrom 32.41% Heavy 28.75% Meta Knight 28.45% Archer 20.25% Frank West 15.10% Bowser's prediction percentage was 42.36% --- http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg |
Haste_2 posted... If Spyro gets anywhere even close to close to Morrigan in the end, I definitely will discount the idea of Seph/Spyro SFF. Are you really saying Clementine and Lee are comparable? Man I don't even know where to begin with this |
Clementine confirmed for decent Lee Everett confirmed for decent Mr Game and Watch confirmed for decent Nathan>Blue>MGAW confirmed yoblazer rejoices --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Sephiroth
and Vincent have looked so bad that we need to set our sights higher.
Crono > Cloud here we come! If only we could get Snake out of the
way, we could get Crono into the finals. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Score-Brackets-% Right 86------1------------100.00 85------0------------0.00 84------2------------100.00 83------8------------100.00 82------13----------92.31 81------37----------91.89 80------69----------100.00 79------100--------92.00 78------113--------89.38 77------153--------89.54 76------158--------84.18 75------189--------75.13 74------226--------71.24 73------288--------70.14 72------338--------64.50 71------450--------60.44 70------538--------59.29 69------591--------53.13 68------684--------50.29 67------778--------52.44 66------795--------49.18 65------848--------45.05 64------806--------48.01 63------780--------41.28 62------695--------40.58 61------650--------41.08 60------610--------35.74 59------549--------36.61 58------511--------35.03 57------440--------30.23 56------371--------27.76 55------366--------31.15 54------323--------26.93 53------297--------25.25 52------241--------20.33 51------278--------18.35 50------184--------16.85 49------208--------19.23 48------199--------17.59 47------148--------14.86 46------128--------14.84 45------144--------16.67 44------109--------13.76 43------97----------12.37 42------84----------13.10 41------82----------7.32 40------83----------9.64 39------62----------4.84 38------53----------5.66 37------48----------4.17 36------39----------7.69 35------34----------5.88 34------41----------14.63 33------35----------5.71 32------27----------3.70 31------16----------0.00 30------17----------5.88 29------13----------7.69 28------16----------0.00 27------9------------11.11 26------6------------0.00 25------12----------8.33 24------4------------0.00 23------4------------0.00 22------5------------20.00 21------2------------0.00 20------5------------0.00 19------2------------50.00 18------2------------0.00 17------2------------0.00 16------1------------0.00 15------0------------0.00 14------1------------0.00 13------4------------0.00 12------0------------0.00 11------1------------0.00 10------13----------0.00 9--------1------------0.00 8--------1------------0.00 7--------0------------0.00 6--------1------------0.00 5--------5------------0.00 4--------0------------0.00 3--------6------------0.00 2--------3------------0.00 1--------1------------0.00 Very strong support for Bowser in the top tiers. It's pretty much just a slow fade in prediction percentage from the top of the list to the bottom. 3 people fell off the Top 49. Hagankefs, GranzonEx and Magikarp did not have Bowser winning. --- Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32 |
Yeah,
look I'm not saying Clementine beats Edgeworth because I don't want to
play around with guessing right now (I probably take Edgeworth but you
couldn't make me care about this match if you tried). But the only info we have on Clementine is "blown out by Spyro" and while it's easy to dismiss that as awful if Spyro boosted it becomes a lot less awful! I don't need it to be good for what I was saying! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Nanis23 posted... Looking at the match pic,I got this crazy feeling Sup |
I
thought everybody knows that there are TWO New-School Square characters
that will never fall off the map.... Squall and Tifa. Nevermind the
fact that I like Cloud, Sephiroth, and Aerith all more than Tifa. ~_~ --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those! It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
red sox 777 posted... Sephiroth and Vincent have looked so bad that we need to set our sights higher. Crono > Cloud here we come! If only we could get Snake out of the way, we could get Crono into the finals. Crono>Cloud? please, Lugia's gonna take him out :P |
dat percentage jump --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Tifa's popularity is based entirely on TJF, so it'd be difficult for her to fall off without pic sabotage. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Haste_2 posted... I thought everybody knows that there are TWO New-School Square characters that will never fall off the map.... Squall and Tifa. As it should be. Sex appeal is ageless. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/477513/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-1-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif |
I'd rather not have another Mario/Crono... it would be like rerunning Magus/Ganondorf at this point. Cloud, assuming he can avoid a pic sabotage, should be the conclusive barometer on how much FF7 has moved hopefully. These two are effectively unknowns, but Frog is a known quantity and Lugia is a random Pokemon so we should have a good idea on what performances on those are worth. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Well, yeah. Mario/Crono would be ugly unless something really weird happened. Not looking forward to Mario breaking 60% or whatever he'd get! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Cloud is the best FFVII character, and I expect him to be among the most resilient here to drops. He has been in the past. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Crono
might be able to do a little better than expected based on sympathy
votes. I like Mario more but I'd definitely throw him one. Same
principle for Mario/Sonic, though I think Sonic probably gets killed
there. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Sephiroth probably won't end up doubling Morrigan, pretty abysmal performance. It's the same Morrigan that doesn't have TJF. --- The cycle of life and death continues. We will live. And they will die. |
Spyro cut. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Oh well I "sup"ed too soon |
Spyro cut My world It's upside down --- http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg |
Sephiroth's making fine gains now, if he can continue this he'll be okay. --- Still smilin' :> |
Absolutely no way Mario would get 60%. I still think Crono can beat his 2005 mark (for real). --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Bowser - 6.32’ Sub-Zero - 4.51’ The Boss - 4.39’ Garrus - 3.70’ Chrom - 2.87’ Meta Knight - 2.51’ Heavy - 2.37’ Archer - 1.60’ Frank West - 1.00’ --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
Dammit Spyro. Why? is it because i abandoned you at the last moment and you're going to make me pay for it? --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Crono
beating his 2005 mark isn't out of the realm of possibility. Though I
don't think that would be representative of his 'real' strength,
personally. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Though maybe Crono can inspire some faith in me by not losing to goddamn Pikachu --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Mario/Crono
wouldn't be a close match at all, but I'm not sure what the percentages
would be. Crono would never be in the match, though. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Okay,
maybe 60% was too high, but my point stands! I don't think we're in any
shape for the rivalry to really remain intact. Watching Mario just
cruise to a win would be so sad! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Crono needs to beat Pikachu for sanity's sake. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those! It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Need to get Allen to avoid making round 3 the sprite round for Big Boss to have any chance. --- SuperNiceDog is also a SuperSmartDog. |
Hey guys, did you guys forget that Crono won the last time he faced Mario? --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
Haste_2 posted... Crono needs to beat Pikachu for sanity's sake. Better hope that Crono can eviscerate Magus's soul then... --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Crono
needs the same thing the FF7 crew needs: a proper sequel or remake. And
he's even less likely to get it, which is saying something. I don't get Square sometimes. sometimes = all the time --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
But, uh, it would definitely be more than 53%, regardless of what weird stat shifting you wanna do! --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Karma Hunter posted... Though maybe Crono can inspire some faith in me by not losing to goddamn Pikachu sorry, that's the Link rally test run :P (or is it Lugia? *cue dramatic music*) |
Lieutenant Kettch posted... Need to get Allen to avoid making round 3 the sprite round for Big Boss to have any chance. Round 3 is already confirmed to be freeform not sprites. --- Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32 |
Even good games
from Square would help. The Square crew would look a hell of a lot
better if the company hadn't pissed all over its fanbase. Nintendo may
have released a stinker with the Wii, but Mario, Zelda, Smash, and
Pokemon games are still very well received. Square - the entire freakin
COMPANY - hasn't given its fanbase one thing worth a damn since 2006.
TWO THOUSAND AND SIX. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg |
If Crono loses to Pikachu and there's no excuses (Magus isn't an excuse here) I'll just be really sad. But if there's pic sabotage or massive rallies involved I might just have to ragequit the contest! Similarly, even if Crono wins if Pikachu somehow got pic sabotaged or whatever I'd be feeling pretty down too. I don't really want Crono to win like that! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
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