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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1123
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Oh wow. You weren't kidding about that bad Metal Gear SNV! --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Looks like Sub has this now. --- XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak |
Karma Hunter posted... Aw man, looks this one's gonna get away from The Boss again unless something really funny happens with the trends. But the miracle just happen last night! |
AxemRedRanger posted... Oh wow. You weren't kidding about that bad Metal Gear SNV! I know MGS trends pretty intimately, as you might imagine. In contrast, a night match would look absolutely humiliating for Bowser. He's dang lucky that he doesn't have to suffer the indignity of losing entire hours to The Boss. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
red sox 777 posted... Squall being 45% on Mario either puts Mario at 42 on Base Link, or Squall at that level and Mario at 45. I'm not gonna say no to my two favorite characters in the contest being able to massacre absolutely everybody except maybe Cloud, but those numbers are serious ****. Mario being at 37% while SFF'd in 2002 makes that unlikely. He'd have to have deboosted something fierce to be at that level naturally before SFF. I mean, in 2010, Mario went down to 35% at best, and then he went up to 40% in the Rivalry Rumble. If you believe Mario is worth 38%, Link simply cannot SFF him worth a damn, and I find that hard to believe. |
Mario
was probably a lot stronger than 37% in 2002, and he did beat Cloud
after all. I have no idea why you're using 2002 numbers though. Mario
has a lot of indirect comparisons with Link since then. It's not severe
SFF- 62% to 65%. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
red sox 777 posted... Mario was probably a lot stronger than 37% in 2002, and he did beat Cloud after all. I have no idea why you're using 2002 numbers though. Mario has a lot of indirect comparisons with Link since then. It's not severe SFF- 62% to 65%. I'm using 2002 numbers matched up with 2010 numbers to demonstrate how little proportions have changed. If Link is super weak Mario should be super weak too, and I don't buy that. He took care of business properly last round, and probably will do it again this one. |
Mario resisted SFF against Link in 2002, for the most part, due to Sunshine. Just like in 2007, when Galaxy was released. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those! It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
Wait,
my apologies. That should be 38% on Link 2004-2008, not BL. Link
2004-8 is my main frame of reference, because he stayed at that strength
for so long, while BL was a 1 year thing 10 years ago. So 41% on BL, and 44% on current Link (such a weak entrant to hold the name "Link"). --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Kanz, you're not making any sense here. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
I don't think Mario resisted SFF in 2002, he was public enemy number 1 after going through Cloud and Crono. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 71/93 Today's Picks: Vincent and Bowser |
Come to think of it,Pokemon is the strongest franchise that doesn't have a NN representive The reason is obvious- there isn't really a "main character" Pikachu can be considered Pokemon mascot but he isn't really 100% liked Charizard is the most popular one but it still suffers from not being main character So...um... Pokeball for CBX! |
I've
never bought Sephiroth > Cloud in 2002, certainly not by a 56/44
margin. Granted, Mario/Cloud got 30,000 more votes than Mario/Link, so
part of it is probably Mario overperforming on Cloud. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Mario
definitely got SFFed in 2002, there's no way Cloud/Crono/Snake are so
solidly below the Sephiroth/Samus/Mega Man trio that year. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
In
many ways Mario is the real King of SFF. He often posts more
impressive SFF beatings than Link, given that you'd expect Link to do
more as the much stronger character. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Karma Hunter posted... Using a constant Sub-Zero and Bowser it looks like Bowser was worth around 52% on Ryu 2010, while HG/SS Charizard was about half a percent weaker than Squall. *imagines Squall facing Charizard on the day of HG/SS and winning anyway* *explodes* red sox 777 posted... So Mario/Squall goes about 53/47. That looks right. ...wait, are you guys saying Squall has a legit shot at beating Mario next round if Red is there that's what it sounds like *explodes again* creativename posted... Seriously, when did Bowser's SNV get this pitiful? It was always bad. Pretty sure Snake put Bowser away with it, and Snake's isn't that good either. --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
red sox 777 posted... Kanz, you're not making any sense here. Hmm...can you explain to me where I lose you? Maybe I can clear it up. |
Yeah MGS has a mediocre SNV but Bowser's is atrocious. If he had an SNV worth a damn he would have beaten Snake. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
*imagines Squall facing Charizard on the day of HG/SS and winning anyway* *explodes* That shouldn't be surprising. You guys all (well, at least everyone else on the Analysis Crew) picked Bowser to beat Charizard on the day of HG/SS, you'd better have picked Squall! ...wait, are you guys saying Squall has a legit shot at beating Mario next round if Red is there that's what it sounds like *explodes again* Uh.... I didn't even realize that was coming up. Well, Squall could make things quite uncomfortable for Mario then. I don't think Mario/Red LFF is enough to bridge a 53/47 gap, and certainly not a 55/45 gap, but Squall could make it close. I'd be more optimistic if I didn't just see Vincent lose to Phoenix Wright. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Bowser's night vote in general is pretty atrocious. Anyone remember the first few hours of Crono/Bowser when Crono had like 62%? --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
LeonhartFour posted...
If Red impresses in Round 2 and Squall takes care of business properly, yes, definitely. Mario is the king of SFF, but if Red looks like he's anywhere near Blue, I feel good about his chances. Mario and Squall can't be more than 5 percents of whatever Link you choose to use apart. If we assume Red holds up at all, he should be draining way more from Mario than Squall, which gives the Relentless Revolver a very real shot at the upset. Way a way for the original Near Elite to finally come through when given a shot at a beatable Noble Niner, eh? If Squall manages to do it I think he straight up deserves to be a true elite on the level of the Noble Nine, because nobody who isn't one of them is beating him again. |
red sox 777 posted... I'd be more optimistic if I didn't just see Vincent lose to Phoenix Wright. I assure you Squall has no Suit McDude pics. red sox 777 posted... That shouldn't be surprising. You guys all (well, at least everyone else on the Analysis Crew) picked Bowser to beat Charizard on the day of HG/SS, you'd better have picked Squall Well, there's a difference between what we picked and what actually happened! --- http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lo22vfguji1qzxr43.gif |
Speaking of Squall and Vincent... Is there a chance that 2005 result gets turned on its head if it's done again now? --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
There's been a chance since 2006 when Squall got KH2! ...Of course, I may not be the most reliable source on this. --- Guess who I am! http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs3/1345748_o.gif |
As
if on cue, Bowser gets slashed for 14 votes by Sub-Zero. I think I'm
kind of underrating how much worse this would get for him in a 24 hour
match - 43.5% for Subz/Boss might be a floor, if anything. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
The
problem is that Pokemon and mainline Nintendo don't hurt each other
that much. It's almost like FFVII and CT, maybe the Pokemon/Nintendo
LFF is a little stronger than that. And I'm also concerned about New
Square dropping off a cliff- just can't shake off the horribleness of
that Vincent match. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
That's the problem for Mario. There's going to be a split, but he won't kill Red like he needs to. --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
Looking at the match pic,I got this crazy feeling Morrigan is going to make Sephiroth embarresed She is the kind of fodder that will ride on Sephiroth anti votes and will put a respectable % on him I think...50-30-20 is possible |
Seph could look bad, especially with a pic imbalance. Or he could decide to go crazy and kill the poll. He's kind of erratic. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
LeonhartFour posted... There's been a chance since 2006 when Squall got KH2! No, there's no room for doubt that Squall wins if the match is held again one year later. He boosted from KH2, and that would've put him clearly above Vincent. Squall is and has been the strongest character outside the Noble Nine and bandwagons for years now, just look at 2007 if you need proof. red sox 777 posted... The problem is that Pokemon and mainline Nintendo don't hurt each other that much. It's almost like FFVII and CT, maybe the Pokemon/Nintendo LFF is a little stronger than that. And I'm also concerned about New Square dropping off a cliff- just can't shake off the horribleness of that Vincent match. This isn't true. Ocarina of Time took RBY and SMASHED IT. It didn't matter because RBY was hella strong anyway, but its version of resisting SFF was to go from brutalizing Majora's Mask and MGS to getting buried so far down it lost to FFX and allowed the cookie cutter final to happen. |
Nanis23 posted... Looking at the match pic,I got this crazy feeling Morrigan is going to make Sephiroth embarresed Morrigan isn't fodder. She put up good numbers on Mario in 2002, and performed very well in her own match. She's almost certainly a low to mid midcarder. |
Mario
being at 37% while SFF'd in 2002 makes that unlikely. He'd have to have
deboosted something fierce to be at that level naturally before SFF. I
mean, in 2010, Mario went down to 35% at best, and then he went up to
40% in the Rivalry Rumble. If you believe Mario is worth 38%, Link
simply cannot SFF him worth a damn, and I find that hard to believe. This doesn't make sense. Mario's both boosted and deboosted since 2002, it's been 11 years, every character has probably both boosted and deboosted since that time. So I don't know why 2002 is relevant. I don't know what you mean about Mario going down to 35% in 2010 or up to 40% in the Rivalry contest (Link/Ganon vs. Mario/Bowser is way different from Link vs. Mario). --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
This
isn't true. Ocarina of Time took RBY and SMASHED IT. It didn't matter
because RBY was hella strong anyway, but its version of resisting SFF
was to go from brutalizing Majora's Mask and MGS to getting buried so
far down it lost to FFX and allowed the cookie cutter final to happen. Uh, RBY didn't get smashed. It still beat MGS in round 3. And it put up 47% on FFX in round 4 with both OOT and SSBM in the poll. Now SSBM, that game got smashed. And what's more, RBY put up 37% and 34% on OOT itself, suggesting very little SFF. It's very possibly the single Nintendo entity that has stood up against Link/OOT the best in the history of the contests. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Besides
the worst case of pic sabotage ever, a Vincent decline could very well
have been hidden by going up against Sephiroth in 2010. Squall had a
pretty solid result on Solid Snake that year though, and he also
performed decently in Rivalry Rumble despite being attached to someone
that we now know was dreadful dead weight. Wouldn't worry too much about
his strength unless we actually see bad results from him. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
I'd
say if Boss can stall for the next hour or so and keep it around 100
she has a chance at completing a last hour comeback (MGS has an ability
to do this), but pretty sure that won't apply in a nigh-meaningless
match for second. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
There's a lot of results you could say either way about New Square so far. My inclination is a bit of a drop, but y'never know. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Squall will always be the exception to a drop. Bank on it. Squall will save us from Draven. --- http://gifsoup.com/view4/2077316/thane-dance-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view1/1334641/pop-that-collar-o.gif |
Phoenix Wright > Vincent > Crono > Mario > Cloud > Link 5 steps. Transitivity only, linearity not required. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
What I mean is this: Mario had 37% on Link directly, while the Ninty hierarchy was asserting itself. This means he was worth more on Link than that, because SFF was a thing. You say that, in the present day, he's worth 37% on Link indirectly.
In other words, you think that his percent before SFF is accounted for
is the 2002 result, and he can only dip lower - much lower - head on,
because you think Link's head to head value on Mario is higher than that
(see: your 62-65% SFF adjustment figure). In 2005, Mario boosted
considerably, putting him very clearly ahead of his 2002 self. This
means that the 2005 boost had to be followed by an absolutely colossal
fall at some point, because he'd have to drop to his 2002 value, then go
even lower to get what you think he does indirectly against the weak
Link we saw in 2010 - and that seems unlikely, because he only dipped
one percent and change against him head to head in 2010. Thus, either
Link has no SFF power on Mario beyond a teeny tiny amount (less than
three percent!), or Mario has absolutely fallen off a cliff, which his
performances don't back up. Neither seems likely. |
It's
kind of weird to realize that we're 10 hours into this match, and the
largest lead between Subby and Boss has been 107 votes. And yet nobody
cares because the winner doesn't advance! --- http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg |
I care so much --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Sub-Zero is seriously making Bowser bleed now, BTW. Two cuts amidst a ton of tiny gains. Jeeze, Bowser sucks at night. |
Match LXXXVIII: (1) Sephiroth vs. (6) Morrigan Aensland vs. (9) Spyro the Dragon Previous Round Sephiroth 57.37% Midna 24.55% Little Mac 18.08% Morrigan Aensland 48.19% Miles Edgeworth 28.18% Agent 47 23.63% Spyro the Dragon 56.83% Clementine 29.97% Reyn 13.20% Analysis Sephiroth actually has a chance at achieving the rare feat of getting a higher percent than what he got in a previous round in a multi-way contest. It can be argued that Midna and Little Mac are stronger than Morrigan and Spyro. I feel the match will be close and should Spyro perform better than expected Sephiroth will likely fail to outdo his percentage. I have a feeling Spyro may impress us this match, his performance was quite impressive. However, he was against a bunch of unknowns and likely used his name to easily win it. Still Mr. Game & Watch was only able to barely defeat Lee Everett despite having Super Smash Bros. for recognisability and I feel Clementine is likely stronger than Lee. Of course that match does not give us any clues to Spyros strength and it might not matter once he goes up against someone with actual recognition. Morrigan looked pretty good last round, assuming a constant Edgeworth it places her as around borderline fodder, which is impressive for a character that essentially relies on crossover games not named Super Smash Bros. for most of her strength. Morrigan likely relies a bit on her appearance and with this round being head shots it could cause her to underperform a bit. I do not see Morrigan winning over Spyro by as much as we saw back in 2002. Sephiroth may not outdo his performance last round, Morrigan did around the same as Midna did against Edgeworth and Spyro has a decent chance of looking half decent should he retain some of those recognition votes. charmander6000s Bracket: Sephiroth > Morrigan Aensland and Spyro the Dragon charmander6000s Prediction: Sephiroth 57.56%, Morrigan Aensland 25.74%, Spyro the Dragon 16.70% --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 71/93 Today's Picks: Vincent and Bowser |
I just wanted to say that I enjoy your write-ups, charmander. |
That is not what I am saying at all. Hmm...how about I'll just list my estimates for Mario's strength through the years: First, Link's strength: 2002-3 Link = BL 2004-8 Link = 53.5% on BL 2010 Link = 47% on BL 2002 Mario = 44% on BL (equivalent to setting Cloud = Sephiroth) 2003-4 Mario = 37-38% on BL = 35-36% on Link 2k4-8 (through direct extrapolation) 2005-7 Mario = 43% on BL = 40% on Link 2k4-8 2008-10 Mario = 40% on BL = 37% on Link 2k4-8 = 42% on Link 2010 --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Yeahhhh
Sub-Zero might end up at 42% just by the end of this match. It's
probably more likely that Bowser allows something more in the range of
44-45% on him in a 24 hour match. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
So this basically means Subby is fine and The Boss has improved. Sounds good. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
Incidentally, if Sub-Zero would end at 44%, Auron and Crono 2006 predict this result just about perfectly. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
That son of a b**** got lucky last round Vincent got %25 because his pic made him look like a lawyer otherwise he gets 5% and Wrighto gets %50. In other news Mewtwo is definitely cheating judging by those sudden random peaks Here's what's going to happen in round 3, Mewtwo gets 90% against Sonic and Bowser. After the playtoy gets disqualified for cheating, Wrighto replaces it scoring 65% in round 3 |
red sox 777 posted... That is not what I am saying at all. Hmm...how about I'll just list my estimates for Mario's strength through the years: Hm. That's about two points lower than I'd peg Mario in pretty much all instances, but otherwise it checks out. So it's really more about which adjustment is right, not a fundamental difference in our perception of Mario's strength. Looks good to me! |
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