Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1123

#201 | ZFS | Posted 8/21/2013 2:18:23 PM | message detail
Big Boss probably wins thanks to Ness. That's how it's always been expected to go. Still think Luigi has a good shot there, though. This should be his best year in a long time.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#202 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/21/2013 2:18:46 PM | message detail
I still think Subby wins this simply because I can't see the trends favoring Boss. Once Europe goes to bed, this probably reverses.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#203 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/21/2013 2:19:17 PM | message detail
so what do we have to do to ensure Luigi > Kirby > Sephiroth in round 3

if we're going to sabotage stuff might as well go all the way
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"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
#204 | Sorozone | Posted 8/21/2013 2:20:47 PM | message detail
Tweet Nintendo to remind them to vote for Luigi, with Yearofluigi hastags. Naturally those Nintendo votes will go to Kirby as well.
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http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif
#205 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/21/2013 2:21:02 PM | message detail
What will it be? Loyalty to your favorites, or loyalty to your expert score?
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Proud supporter of DogFAQs
#206 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/21/2013 2:21:02 PM | message detail
UK really loves itself some MGS3, if it goes to sleep Subby might have this.
#207 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/21/2013 2:22:15 PM | message detail
Ultimaphazon posted...
What will it be? Loyalty to your favorites, or loyalty to your expert score?


I don't care for The Boss (or Sub-Zero, really), loyalty to my expert score it is
#208 | ZFS | Posted 8/21/2013 2:23:06 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
so what do we have to do to ensure Luigi > Kirby > Sephiroth in round 3

if we're going to sabotage stuff might as well go all the way


I like this.

Old man Big Boss, Theathryhthm Sephiroth let's go
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#209 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/21/2013 2:23:43 PM | message detail
#210 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/21/2013 2:23:59 PM | message detail
Reminder - The Boss is doing this in the middle of the day. Give her a 24 hour match and Sub-Zero loses relatively easily, and she's probably up to like 42-43% on Bowser, possibly even more.

...

The Boss v Sora (night match)

who ya got
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http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#211 | ZFS | Posted 8/21/2013 2:24:56 PM | message detail
Pretty standard pics there.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#212 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/21/2013 2:25:21 PM | message detail
Hey, not a bad picture for BB! That's not my favorite look but at this point I'm positively ecstatic. <_<
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http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#213 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/21/2013 2:28:28 PM | message detail
Morrigan + Sephiroth have a funky quote combo, Luigi sounds like a total dork but looks good, Big Boss lookin' smashing. Should be interesting.
#214 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/21/2013 2:28:59 PM | message detail
So anyone give Spyro a chance against a TJF-less Morrigan?
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 71/93 Today's Picks: Vincent and Bowser
#215 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/21/2013 2:29:48 PM | message detail
Just a reminder to those who would consider any last minute rallies for their expert: it doesn't matter. Literally everyone on the leaderboard has Bowser> Sub > Boss. If you get it wrong, so does everyone else.
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Proud supporter of DogFAQs
#216 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/21/2013 2:29:54 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
So anyone give Spyro a chance against a TJF-less Morrigan?


No.

Spyro's threepack is going to look even more horrendous than it already does after that match is over.
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http://www.gifsoup.com/view/593815/frasier-and-niles-dance-o.gif
#217 | ZFS | Posted 8/21/2013 2:30:49 PM | message detail
Why Luigi's quote isn't 'I'ma Luigi, number one!' I will not understand!

But the Mario factor on the quote might work!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#218 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/21/2013 2:32:07 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
charmander6000 posted...
So anyone give Spyro a chance against a TJF-less Morrigan?


No.

Spyro's threepack is going to look even more horrendous than it already does after that match is over.


Especially because Morrigan is looking incredible even without any TJF there. Seriously, unfocus your eyes for a second and then look at the pic. See what they home in on. She's popping out like whoa.
#219 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/21/2013 2:35:18 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Why Luigi's quote isn't 'I'ma Luigi, number one!' I will not understand!

But the Mario factor on the quote might work!


At least it's not "That's Mama Luigi to you!"
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http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif
#220 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/21/2013 2:39:31 PM | message detail
Boss is getting tantalizingly close to cutting Bowser. What a stunning performance.
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Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#221 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/21/2013 2:42:13 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Boss is getting tantalizingly close to cutting Bowser. What a stunning performance.


And right on cue she begins to dip. THE JINXES
#222 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/21/2013 2:44:16 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
84------1------------0.00
83------7------------14.29
82------7------------0.00
81------30----------3.33
80------65----------3.08
79------79----------7.59
78------90----------8.89
77------108--------5.56
76------127--------21.26
75------139--------22.30
74------155--------32.90
73------197--------29.44
72------242--------33.47
71------336--------36.31
70------420--------35.48
69------499--------35.47
68------628--------37.58
67------717--------37.24
66------750--------35.87
65------848--------34.43
64------849--------38.63
63------824--------38.11
62------763--------38.27
61------709--------40.20
60------677--------39.88
59------616--------36.36
58------588--------38.44
57------503--------40.36
56------428--------36.68
55------421--------35.39
54------379--------36.94
53------319--------31.35
52------280--------33.57
51------295--------28.47
50------214--------36.45
49------219--------25.11
48------217--------30.88
47------168--------28.57
46------144--------30.56
45------173--------28.32
44------118--------23.73
43------109--------25.69
42------86----------23.26
41------85----------22.35
40------90----------17.78
39------75----------24.00
38------64----------25.00
37------49----------18.37
36------41----------12.20
35------34----------14.71
34------47----------17.02
33------37----------8.11
32------30----------16.67
31------16----------12.50
30------18----------5.56
29------14----------14.29
28------18----------11.11
27------8------------0.00
26------7------------14.29
25------9------------0.00
24------4------------25.00
23------4------------0.00
22------8------------37.50
21------3------------33.33
20------5------------0.00
19------2------------0.00
18------2------------0.00
17------2------------0.00
16------1------------0.00
15------0------------0.00
14------1------------0.00
13------4------------0.00
12------0------------0.00
11------1------------0.00
10------13----------0.00
9--------1------------0.00
8--------1------------0.00
7--------0------------0.00
6--------1------------0.00
5--------5------------0.00
4--------0------------0.00
3--------6------------0.00
2--------3------------0.00
1--------1------------0.00

Not that it was a guarantee for Vincent to win even with a normal picture but the picture sabotage means Vincent doesn't even get a fair chance and the top tiers get blasted as a result. The final -9 (84 points) bracket falls. Prediction percentage is largely in the single digits until the -17s (76 points). Prediction percentage actually rises into the 40s for casual brackets before fading away.

14 people fell off the Top 49. Qwaar, Robazoid, SubDeity, Swaghax, th3l3fty, TheKoolAidShoto, The_Ps2_Devil, t_kizzle, wakeuptogashi, ZenOfThunder, Advokaiser, ALAKA, Ambertwo and Amyson did not have Mewtwo winning.

33 people got it wrong and survived. Former first place KingLionel, former second place Astro1446, former third place Billy_Gates, KCGemini, LordoftheMorons, Luis_Sera89, Sorozone, AsurasKordoth, CarveyFAQs, Colegreen_c12, EdBellis, Hagankefs, metaIslugg, Runemistress, ahirsch101, Als52, Bane_Of_Despair, Blairville, ContestScrub, davidponte, InvisibleOmega, JaySolano, KamikazePotato, kbe2k2, LeonhartFour, Lord_Kawaii, Mac_Arrowny, mrdean55, NLMagic, Polycosm, Pondos, Prankster928 and ps2rulezzz also did not have Mewtwo winning.

2 people on the Top 49 got it right. Current first place SuorGenoveffa and current second place greengravy294 correctly had Mewtwo going to Round 3.
---
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32
#223 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/21/2013 2:53:17 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Score-Brackets-% Right
84------1------------0.00
83------7------------14.29
82------7------------0.00
81------30----------3.33
80------65----------3.08
79------79----------7.59
78------90----------8.89
77------108--------5.56
76------127--------21.26
75------139--------22.30
74------155--------32.90
73------197--------29.44
72------242--------33.47
71------336--------36.31
70------420--------35.48
69------499--------35.47
68------628--------37.58
67------717--------37.24
66------750--------35.87
65------848--------34.43
64------849--------38.63
63------824--------38.11
62------763--------38.27
61------709--------40.20
60------677--------39.88
59------616--------36.36
58------588--------38.44
57------503--------40.36
56------428--------36.68
55------421--------35.39
54------379--------36.94
53------319--------31.35
52------280--------33.57
51------295--------28.47
50------214--------36.45
49------219--------25.11
48------217--------30.88
47------168--------28.57
46------144--------30.56
45------173--------28.32
44------118--------23.73
43------109--------25.69
42------86----------23.26
41------85----------22.35
40------90----------17.78
39------75----------24.00
38------64----------25.00
37------49----------18.37
36------41----------12.20
35------34----------14.71
34------47----------17.02
33------37----------8.11
32------30----------16.67
31------16----------12.50
30------18----------5.56
29------14----------14.29
28------18----------11.11
27------8------------0.00
26------7------------14.29
25------9------------0.00
24------4------------25.00
23------4------------0.00
22------8------------37.50
21------3------------33.33
20------5------------0.00
19------2------------0.00
18------2------------0.00
17------2------------0.00
16------1------------0.00
15------0------------0.00
14------1------------0.00
13------4------------0.00
12------0------------0.00
11------1------------0.00
10------13----------0.00
9--------1------------0.00
8--------1------------0.00
7--------0------------0.00
6--------1------------0.00
5--------5------------0.00
4--------0------------0.00
3--------6------------0.00
2--------3------------0.00
1--------1------------0.00

Not that it was a guarantee for Vincent to win even with a normal picture but the picture sabotage means Vincent doesn't even get a fair chance and the top tiers get blasted as a result. The final -9 (84 points) bracket falls. Prediction percentage is largely in the single digits until the -17s (76 points). Prediction percentage actually rises into the 40s for casual brackets before fading away.

14 people fell off the Top 49. Qwaar, Robazoid, SubDeity, Swaghax, th3l3fty, TheKoolAidShoto, The_Ps2_Devil, t_kizzle, wakeuptogashi, ZenOfThunder, Advokaiser, ALAKA, Ambertwo and Amyson did not have Mewtwo winning.

33 people got it wrong and survived. Former first place KingLionel, former second place Astro1446, former third place Billy_Gates, KCGemini, LordoftheMorons, Luis_Sera89, Sorozone, AsurasKordoth, CarveyFAQs, Colegreen_c12, EdBellis, Hagankefs, metaIslugg, Runemistress, ahirsch101, Als52, Bane_Of_Despair, Blairville, ContestScrub, davidponte, InvisibleOmega, JaySolano, KamikazePotato, kbe2k2, LeonhartFour, Lord_Kawaii, Mac_Arrowny, mrdean55, NLMagic, Polycosm, Pondos, Prankster928 and ps2rulezzz also did not have Mewtwo winning.

2 people on the Top 49 got it right. Current first place SuorGenoveffa and current second place greengravy294 correctly had Mewtwo going to Round 3.


Ouch, man...
---
"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#224 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/21/2013 2:57:27 PM | message detail
TRE, you might as well stop posting those stats. People who have too much free time will be rallying and sabotaging pictures for the rest of the contest, so there will be nothing else in the way of expected results.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#225 | jtwo22 | Posted 8/21/2013 3:00:08 PM | message detail
The Boss is doing well. Didn't think she would take the lead against sub Zero.
Bowser still winning ,of course. You would almost forget that.
I wonder how many votes the close match between The Boss and Sub-Zero are costing Bowser.
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#226 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/21/2013 3:02:21 PM | message detail
Not a bad Morrigan but mine met the portrait criteria as well and jugs

http://i.imgur.com/jeyTZk9.png
---
Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif
#227 | im317 | Posted 8/21/2013 3:04:28 PM | message detail
would there be any threat to Bowser in a 24 hour match? or a 12 hour night match?
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#228 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/21/2013 3:05:02 PM | message detail
From these two? No.
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#229 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/21/2013 3:05:12 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Not a bad Morrigan but mine met the portrait criteria as well and jugs

http://i.imgur.com/jeyTZk9.png


On one hand, it has jugs. On the other, just look at how much she stands out in the official match pic. I'm honestly not sure which is better.
#230 | anondum | Posted 8/21/2013 3:06:26 PM | message detail
sub-zero and the boss probably have a lot of SFF going on. I bet either of them could do a good 45% on bowser
#231 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/21/2013 3:06:55 PM | message detail
anondum posted...
sub-zero and the boss probably have a lot of SFF going on.


darn it guys
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http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png
http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png
#232 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/21/2013 3:11:47 PM | message detail
Bowser almost lost the update to Sub-Zero
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 71/93 Today's Picks: Vincent and Bowser
#233 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/21/2013 3:13:00 PM | message detail
Is there any chance The Boss breaks 30%
#234 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/21/2013 3:14:56 PM | message detail
Boss has got to break free of these stalls and build up a bit more of a cushion, or the mediocre MGS SNV is gonna come back to haunt her.
---
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#235 | hikaruai | Posted 8/21/2013 3:17:53 PM | message detail
I had #s 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, and ten of the least predicted night matches...
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#236 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/21/2013 3:26:50 PM | message detail
I don't get this match. This contest has been bizarre since Draven's slaughter.
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#237 | creativename | Posted 8/21/2013 3:27:29 PM | message detail
Seph's pic is pretty meh while Morrigan and Spyro look pretty good (Morrigan being the more important). Another FF7 underperformance upcoming. (though I think I might have more respect for Morrigan's strength than most, I think she's a few points stronger than Midna, not sure where others have her)

So KH - what trademark implications for other matches can you draw from this The Boss performance here?
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
#238 | Lopen | Posted 8/21/2013 3:29:28 PM | message detail
I actually don't think this is too shocking. The Boss to me kinda overperformed in r1 and Scorpion looked like a chump. Sub-Zero... may have looked good we don't really know based on Garrus.

I had this match as like a 5% victory for Sub-Zero-- nothing super decisive.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#239 | creativename | Posted 8/21/2013 3:29:47 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
I don't get this match. This contest has been bizarre since Draven's slaughter.

Well I wouldn't call this bizarre...The Boss seems to just boost every contest. I didn't expect Boss to be this high but it's not particularly surprising is it?
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
#240 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/21/2013 3:31:57 PM | message detail
I can't get over how bad Vincent's performance was. Even giving him a 15% handicap for the picture, he still only beats Mewtwo with 52%. Going through PW and giving the same 15%, he gets like 53% on 2k7 Magus.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#241 | ZFS | Posted 8/21/2013 3:32:16 PM | message detail
Yeah, The Boss doing this is certainly not nearly as surprising as, say, Phoenix Wright or Vincent yesterday. Draven is something else.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#242 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/21/2013 3:35:32 PM | message detail
Well, you don't go from 50/50 with Tails to hanging 41% on Bowser (probably closer to 43-44% in a 24 hour match without boosting. Heck, based on Boss's traditional night strength it's conceivable she could beat Sora in a night match (judging by his percentage on Bowser at night and his underwhelming percentage on Scorpion).

So it's pretty safe to assume Boss has boosted, with the bulk of it being post-2010, seeing as how she put up only like 52% on Drake and he's barely stronger than Pac-Man (and he was *weaker* then). The one character who should mirror strength changes in The Boss more than anyone is Big Boss, as they're inextricably linked - as anyone who saw the Rivalry Rumble should know.

So if this is a real strength change and not just a fluke performance or something, it's very possible Luigi is in for a world of hurt. Solid Snake could also be stronger but at that point I'm more willing to infer just a stronger MGS crew as a whole. Ocelot, The Boss, the whole shebang has been doing dang good.
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Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#243 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/21/2013 3:36:41 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Well, you don't go from 50/50 with Tails to hanging 41% on Bowser (probably closer to 43-44% in a 24 hour match without boosting. Heck, based on Boss's traditional night strength it's conceivable she could beat Sora in a night match (judging by his percentage on Bowser at night and his underwhelming percentage on Scorpion).

So it's pretty safe to assume Boss has boosted, with the bulk of it being post-2010, seeing as how she put up only like 52% on Drake and he's barely stronger than Pac-Man (and he was *weaker* then). The one character who should mirror strength changes in The Boss more than anyone is Big Boss, as they're inextricably linked - as anyone who saw the Rivalry Rumble should know.

So if this is a real strength change and not just a fluke performance or something, it's very possible Luigi is in for a world of hurt. Solid Snake could also be stronger but at that point I'm more willing to infer just a stronger MGS crew as a whole. Ocelot, The Boss, the whole shebang has been doing dang good.


Except Otacon lol
#244 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/21/2013 3:36:48 PM | message detail
#245 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/21/2013 3:38:40 PM | message detail
I still can't get over how crazy Bowser's first ten minutes were. This is borderline joke character bleed!
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Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#246 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/21/2013 3:42:38 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Well, you don't go from 50/50 with Tails to hanging 41% on Bowser (probably closer to 43-44% in a 24 hour match without boosting. Heck, based on Boss's traditional night strength it's conceivable she could beat Sora in a night match (judging by his percentage on Bowser at night and his underwhelming percentage on Scorpion).

So it's pretty safe to assume Boss has boosted, with the bulk of it being post-2010, seeing as how she put up only like 52% on Drake and he's barely stronger than Pac-Man (and he was *weaker* then). The one character who should mirror strength changes in The Boss more than anyone is Big Boss, as they're inextricably linked - as anyone who saw the Rivalry Rumble should know.

So if this is a real strength change and not just a fluke performance or something, it's very possible Luigi is in for a world of hurt. Solid Snake could also be stronger but at that point I'm more willing to infer just a stronger MGS crew as a whole. Ocelot, The Boss, the whole shebang has been doing dang good.


But considering that Sonic Team sucked in multi-ways... I'm kinda confused why The Boss went even with Tails in the first place.
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#247 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/21/2013 3:45:05 PM | message detail
It feels like Gamefaqs has been turned upside down since the Draven match, but KH, I feel really bad for Cloud against Snake right about now.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#248 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/21/2013 3:45:06 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
But considering that Sonic Team sucked in multi-ways... I'm kinda confused why The Boss went even with Tails in the first place.


MGS sucks in multi-ways too? I dunno
well, Cloud did double Snake back in 2007.....:lol
#249 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/21/2013 3:45:37 PM | message detail
Because she was significantly weaker then. Going 50/50 with a weak Tails and going 50/50 with Sub-Zero aren't even in the same ballpark.
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Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#250 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/21/2013 3:45:40 PM | message detail
An across-the-board Metal Gear Solid character boost?
...
...
...
Liquid why must you torment me so?
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]