Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1122

#301 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/20/2013 10:27:37 PM | message detail
So I just saw the poll for the first time


Holy **** what the hell is going on here.
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#302 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 10:29:36 PM | message detail
MoogleKupo141 posted...
So I just saw the poll for the first time


Holy **** what the hell is going on here.


Chaos Season. The planets have been thrown into disarray.
#303 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 10:33:38 PM | message detail
Vincent, if it's okay, could you at least rise enough to not be below Marth's percentage on Phoenix
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#304 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/20/2013 10:38:22 PM | message detail | (edited)
Well if you assume constant Marth and leave Vincent at his raw 2k10 value, Vincent is only projected to 56/44 Phoenix. (32.68 for Vincent vs 28.5 ish for Phoenix)

It's actually not that crazy to think that Vincent could have dropped say ~3 ish and then the pic is dragging him down another ~2-3 making Phoenix beat him.

EDIT: Not 60/40, calculating wrong. But yeah, basically you can actually have this make sense via the x-stats. Well apart from the Mewtwo godstomp.
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#305 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 10:35:40 PM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
Vincent, if it's okay, could you at least rise enough to not be below Marth's percentage on Phoenix


OK, this is ridiculous enough at this point that I just have to laugh and finally start smiling at this result. You did it, Phoenix. You're legit! Gonna go give Cornered Cadenza a listen to celebrate, he's earned it.
#306 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 10:35:44 PM | message detail
Yeah I guess this match does make sense if you assume Sephiroth is incapable of SFFing Vincent

yep

yepppp
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#307 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 10:36:50 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Yeah I guess this match does make sense if you assume Sephiroth is incapable of SFFing Vincent

yep

yepppp

Sephiroth being exposed for a fraud! Can't even SFF a guy who's losing to Phoenix!
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#308 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 10:36:51 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Yeah I guess this match does make sense if you assume Sephiroth is incapable of SFFing Vincent

yep

yepppp


...

...

...

Yes. This is so good. YES. BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
#309 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/20/2013 10:37:06 PM | message detail
Wait...if Vincent's been hiding a decline...

YES! This means that 2008 isn't an anomaly! Crono really hasn't been Noble Nine tier since blowing the lead to Sonic in 2006!
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#310 | -Tofa7- | Posted 8/20/2013 10:38:05 PM | message detail
This contest is hilariously ridiculous.
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#311 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 10:38:24 PM | message detail
I'm going to be so crushed if/when Crono just doesn't even put up a fight.

Do we have a way to spin this match into good news for Crono?

we must.

there's always a way
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#312 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 10:38:56 PM | message detail
...Actually, I just went and checked. Even SFF'd, Vincent is supposed to 60-40 2010 Phoenix. In other words, not only has Phoenix boosted, not only has Vincent dropped, the combined drop and boost are so massive that they've generated a 20% turnaround. Or should I say...Turnabout.

HOLD IT!
#313 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 10:40:50 PM | message detail | (edited)
Vincent also blew Zelda out of the water in the same year he beat Crono. It would be a lot to hide the declines in 07/08, they faced too many characters.

2010 is a different story.

Edit: Though if he'd weakened a bunch in 2010, Ganondorf's performance on Guybrush this year becomes positively chumptastic by that measurement.
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#314 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 10:42:46 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Vincent also blew Zelda out of the water in the same year he beat Crono. It would be a lot to hide the declines in 07/08, they faced too many characters.

2010 is a different story.

Edit: Though if he'd weakened a bunch in 2010, Ganondorf's performance on Guybrush this year becomes positively chumptastic by that measurement.


Most importantly, Pikachu was in the 2008 match. If Vincent's a fraud, and Crono's by extension a fraud...cue the dramatic segue...

xp1337 posted...
I'm going to be so crushed if/when Crono just doesn't even put up a fight.

Do we have a way to spin this match into good news for Crono?

we must.

there's always a way


...Then Pikachu is a fraud too. And we're right back to having a debatable match!

(By extension this means 2010 Snake is a fraud and so is Squall though. Contest of Frauds!)
#315 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/20/2013 10:42:56 PM | message detail
Guybrush was probably stronger in 2010 too, that was around the time of all those Monkey Island releases.

Smurf's badass decline theory in operation, clearly. -_-
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#316 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 10:43:05 PM | message detail
Yeah, to go back to being serious again (increasingly hard for me in this contest now) I think using this match to call for Crono's doom is a bit hasty.

Vincent looked okay back when Crono had matches with him, so Vincent dropping off now isn't some kind of death knell for him. I mean, I'd prefer Vincent to not drop, but if I wanted to point to warning signs on Crono it's always going to be Missingno first. But dealing with Missingno ugh.

But who knows, I'm so biased in Crono's favor here.
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#317 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 10:45:43 PM | message detail
I just don't know how this looks for the Pokemon at large. On the one hand... thrashing Vincent Valentine. Thrashing him, pic factor or not. Making a statement that he could win a picture even match.

...and on the other, Phoenix Wright breaking 40% on you. Broke GFNW. Barely got 55% on Marth.

I DON'T KNOW
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#318 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/20/2013 10:46:19 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
...Actually, I just went and checked. Even SFF'd, Vincent is supposed to 60-40 2010 Phoenix. In other words, not only has Phoenix boosted, not only has Vincent dropped, the combined drop and boost are so massive that they've generated a 20% turnaround. Or should I say...Turnabout.

HOLD IT!


Well we know Phoenix's boost is considerable. Going off Marth

2k8: 57/43 to Marth
2k10: 51/49 to Marth
2K13: 55/45 to Phoenix

That's a decent sized swing if Marth has stayed constant.
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#319 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/20/2013 10:48:14 PM | message detail
http://i.imgur.com/eaH1app.png

do you guys think bacon will accept this
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~Zen
#320 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 10:48:23 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
...Actually, I just went and checked. Even SFF'd, Vincent is supposed to 60-40 2010 Phoenix. In other words, not only has Phoenix boosted, not only has Vincent dropped, the combined drop and boost are so massive that they've generated a 20% turnaround. Or should I say...Turnabout.

HOLD IT!


Well we know Phoenix's boost is considerable. Going off Marth

2k8: 57/43 to Marth
2k10: 51/49 to Marth
2K13: 55/45 to Phoenix

That's a decent sized swing if Marth has stayed constant.


of course Phoenix has boosted

But Marth is and has always been awful, and letting anyone who could barely break 55% on him do this well on you is concerning.
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#321 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 8/20/2013 10:50:08 PM | message detail
I voted for whoever that guy in the middle is, with the Japanese fashion hairstyle.

How many rounds have bonus polls after them? Theoretically if it was all of them you could "repair" the lol x-stats by running Link / Shep / X, etc. as if the Draven rally didn't happen.
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#322 | creativename | Posted 8/20/2013 10:50:36 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I just don't know how this looks for the Pokemon at large. On the one hand... thrashing Vincent Valentine. Thrashing him, pic factor or not. Making a statement that he could win a picture even match.

...and on the other, Phoenix Wright breaking 40% on you. Broke GFNW. Barely got 55% on Marth.

I DON'T KNOW

Oh I don't think this is that impressive by Mewtwo at all.

This is all Keanu Reeves Valentine.
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#323 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 10:51:40 PM | message detail
Should only be a bonus poll after this round and the end of the contest.

Bonus polls are only happening because with an odd number of matches per round and 12 hour matches we always end a round in the middle of the day. We won't have that happening after we switch to 24 hour matches.
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#324 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 10:52:21 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
...Actually, I just went and checked. Even SFF'd, Vincent is supposed to 60-40 2010 Phoenix. In other words, not only has Phoenix boosted, not only has Vincent dropped, the combined drop and boost are so massive that they've generated a 20% turnaround. Or should I say...Turnabout.

HOLD IT!


Well we know Phoenix's boost is considerable. Going off Marth

2k8: 57/43 to Marth
2k10: 51/49 to Marth
2K13: 55/45 to Phoenix

That's a decent sized swing if Marth has stayed constant.


Decent? If Marth stayed constant, that means Phoenix doesn't just cleanly win a match with Jecht, he comfortably wins over Tidus, he beats up 2010 Mewtwo, defeats Red, Alucard and Falcon, and is a projected to give a close match to Sub Zero. It means Phoenix has roided enormously...and Mewtwo is now a near-elite of Luigi's caliber.

...Man, on one hand I so want it to be true that Phoenix could possibly be above Sub-Zero, but on the other hand, doing that by putting Mewtwo over Luigi...that cost is so high.
#325 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 10:52:58 PM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
http://i.imgur.com/eaH1app.png

do you guys think bacon will accept this


I hope he does. That pic is beautiful, Zen.
#326 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 8/20/2013 10:54:16 PM | message detail
Thanks, I'm gonna work on the levels and stuff before I submit it

they're out of order and there's no names and it's technically not "fair" but what about a Draven match is "fair" anyway
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#327 | SnoicFactor | Posted 8/20/2013 10:54:43 PM | message detail
This is definitely because of the picture.
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nt
#328 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/20/2013 10:54:57 PM | message detail
Man,

I so called one of Karma's craziest upsets being true.
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#329 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 10:55:52 PM | message detail
this was gonna be my year but now Draven is a Draven

so close
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#330 | SnoicFactor | Posted 8/20/2013 10:56:06 PM | message detail
Whelp, I'm happy that Sonic will sail on through next round.
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nt
#331 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/20/2013 10:58:36 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
...Actually, I just went and checked. Even SFF'd, Vincent is supposed to 60-40 2010 Phoenix. In other words, not only has Phoenix boosted, not only has Vincent dropped, the combined drop and boost are so massive that they've generated a 20% turnaround. Or should I say...Turnabout.

HOLD IT!


Well we know Phoenix's boost is considerable. Going off Marth

2k8: 57/43 to Marth
2k10: 51/49 to Marth
2K13: 55/45 to Phoenix

That's a decent sized swing if Marth has stayed constant.


of course Phoenix has boosted

But Marth is and has always been awful, and letting anyone who could barely break 55% on him do this well on you is concerning.


Well if you use Marth as the baseline

2k10 Adjusted Vincent gets 67.8%
2k13 Mewtwo gets 64.5% (going through current score on Phoenix)
2k10 Raw Vincent gets 61%
2k13 Phoenix gets 55%
2k13 Vincent gets errr 50%? (using current match result)
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#332 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/20/2013 11:00:28 PM | message detail
I actually just noticed the picture and had no idea that was even VV.

Are we chalking it up to picture?
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#333 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 11:02:07 PM | message detail
MarioSuperstar posted...
I actually just noticed the picture and had no idea that was even VV.

Are we chalking it up to picture?


The fact that VV's getting nearly doubled by Mewtwo and smashed by Phoenix, probably.

I mean it would have felt so nice to score this upset cleanly but this is the worst kind of feeling, I have no happiness now :(
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#334 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 11:04:46 PM | message detail | (edited)
ZenOfThunder posted...
Thanks, I'm gonna work on the levels and stuff before I submit it

they're out of order and there's no names and it's technically not "fair" but what about a Draven match is "fair" anyway


I wish there was a way to take out Shepard, because a shot of Link going mano a mano with Draven would be great.

Also, as payment for that beautiful pic, have a crappy little something inspired by it. I remembered the credo from another sci-fi setting, and it seemed to go too well not to mix it together with GameFAQS' last bastion.

http://i.imgur.com/dIUD1Lk.jpg
#335 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 11:04:51 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
...Actually, I just went and checked. Even SFF'd, Vincent is supposed to 60-40 2010 Phoenix. In other words, not only has Phoenix boosted, not only has Vincent dropped, the combined drop and boost are so massive that they've generated a 20% turnaround. Or should I say...Turnabout.

HOLD IT!


Well we know Phoenix's boost is considerable. Going off Marth

2k8: 57/43 to Marth
2k10: 51/49 to Marth
2K13: 55/45 to Phoenix

That's a decent sized swing if Marth has stayed constant.


of course Phoenix has boosted

But Marth is and has always been awful, and letting anyone who could barely break 55% on him do this well on you is concerning.


Well if you use Marth as the baseline

2k10 Adjusted Vincent gets 67.8%
2k13 Mewtwo gets 64.5% (going through current score on Phoenix)
2k10 Raw Vincent gets 61%
2k13 Phoenix gets 55%
2k13 Vincent gets errr 50%? (using current match result)


Note that Marth faced Sephiroth directly in 2010 - he's overrated.
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#336 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/20/2013 11:05:24 PM | message detail
Regarding Vincent's board vote. Is it possible he's had a non-terrible board vote because the anti-voters didn't recognize him? Although, I would expect people who vote during the board vote to do the slight bit of extra work to find out he's FF7's Vincent so maybe this doesn't make sense.
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#337 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 11:05:54 PM | message detail
Who are the idiots that t-down the reddit rally?
OK I was not mad before when Draven owned X who is one of my most liked characters but im mad now
I don't care how much pic sabotaged Vincent got,he was supposed to be the clear favorite and some "elites" laughed at everyone that said "Mewtwo>Vincent"
This is actually happening and might happen even with fine picture for Vincent
But we want to check the power of reddit,and instead some people FROM HERE doesn't want it to happen
Fine,go on,go cry again when Draven beat the whole contest
Go and cry that reddit is not fair,when you could use it to your advantage but refused
This is trully annoys me because the people that try to destroy the rally are from this board
LoL fans don't care about other matches so it's not them
#338 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 11:06:20 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Regarding Vincent's board vote. Is it possible he's had a non-terrible board vote because the anti-voters didn't recognize him? Although, I would expect people who vote during the board vote to do the slight bit of extra work to find out he's FF7's Vincent so maybe this doesn't make sense.


Dr. Vincent, popular with the ladies and the board.

...Man I don't even know if I buy it or not, it seems tempting.
#339 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 11:07:01 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Who are the idiots that t-down the reddit rally?
OK I was not mad before when Draven owned X who is one of my most liked characters but im mad now
I don't care how much pic sabotaged Vincent got,he was supposed to be the clear favorite and some "elites" laughed at everyone that said "Mewtwo>Vincent"
This is actually happening and might happen even with fine picture for Vincent
But we want to check the power of reddit,and instead some people FROM HERE doesn't want it to happen
Fine,go on,go cry again when Draven beat the whole contest
Go and cry that reddit is not fair,when you could use it to your advantage but refused
This is trully annoys me because the people that try to destroy the rally are from this board
LoL fans don't care about other matches so it's not them


We care. I upvoted Mewtwo's thread!
#340 | StealThisSheen | Posted 8/20/2013 11:08:09 PM | message detail
That's hilarious

"If you don't like it, rally"
"No it's not as easy/won't be as good!"
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"Hey guys I put up a rally for us"
"*Downvote it*"

Somebody does the work for you and people'd still rather sulk and complain.
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#341 | jonthomson | Posted 8/20/2013 11:10:17 PM | message detail
contest, credibility, lost
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#342 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/20/2013 11:11:57 PM | message detail
Poor Vincent... well, let's hope Draven runs riot over the rest of this contest.
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#343 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 11:13:04 PM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
Poor Vincent... well, let's hope Draven runs riot over the rest of this contest.


If this was a pun it was both great and terrible, just as it should be.
#344 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/20/2013 11:15:31 PM | message detail
Next contest I'm going to try to get Shen in just so I can rally with "Time to stand united with Shen."
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#345 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 11:19:41 PM | message detail | (edited)
I'm actually more displeased with this than the Draven rally - that's something the contest rules tell you has the potential to happen right off the bat, and if it is I may dislike it, but so be it.

But a rigged result like this is poor form. It's like Bacon sticking a thumb in the eye of the fans. And now I'll never really know if my crazy upset would have 100% pulled it off in a fair match!
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#346 | creativename | Posted 8/20/2013 11:17:18 PM | message detail
Nanis, I haven't been following these topics I guess - what are you referring to?

Team Rocket Elite posted...
Regarding Vincent's board vote. Is it possible he's had a non-terrible board vote because the anti-voters didn't recognize him?

Hah, this actually makes a lot of sense.
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#347 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 8/20/2013 11:17:25 PM | message detail
What ended up happening with the Mewtwo rally?

And why are people assuming b8'ers downvoted it? Who knows maybe redditors did?
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- A. Scalia
#348 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 11:18:38 PM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Next contest I'm going to try to get Shen in just so I can rally with "Time to stand united with Shen."


This preemptively got my vote. "A demonstration of superior judgement!"
#349 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/20/2013 11:18:54 PM | message detail
Marth is a Smash leech that gets some votes from his games, but probably not much. The older FE games with Marth in them never came to America, they basically suck these days, and nobody has played them. Even people going back through the Japan-only games with ROMs and translation patches generally just skip Marth's games and go straight to FE4 or later. The Shadow Dragon remake on DS came out in the west but it also sucked and was VERY negatively received by the fanbase and has the ratings and reviews to prove it. It might have even hurt him; in addition to the game sucking, Marth is pretty boring there, he's a required unit but pretty bad at combat, and "that guy from Melee and Brawl" might very well have preferable.

The Smash connection was a good draw for many people getting into Fire Emblem when FE7 first came to the west a decade ago, but I don't get the sense that anyone in the non-Japanese FE fanbase cares about Marth at this point. The only game we've gotten with Marth in it sucked. All he's got is the "Are Marth and Roy in this game?" joke meme.

Ness being about equal to Marth would not surprise me in the slightest. Pretty sure the FE fanbase is bigger than Earthbound's, but at least the Earthbound fanbase cares about their guy. Which means Phoenix is about equal to...2010 Big Daddy.

Joy for Phoenix.
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#350 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/20/2013 11:19:14 PM | message detail
SnoicFactor posted...
Whelp, I'm happy that Sonic will sail on through next round.


...Sonic was never in danger. If anything, this might be more dangerous because Pokémon is "more independent" than console Nintendo, even though Sonic is Sega, people still think it's an SFF situation between Sonic and Bowser.

Even before this match, Vincent was only beating Bowser because Sonic was there.
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