Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1122

#1 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 8/20/2013 8:59:27 PM | message detail
Turks, indeed.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
#2 | Articuno2001 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:05:22 PM | message detail
well, I don't expect the board vote for FF7 to be that strong anyway

I'll recheck the poll when I wake up tomorrow
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Character Battle IX: 75/93 points, Next matches: Vincent Valentine, Bowser
http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif
#3 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/20/2013 9:05:29 PM | message detail
Errr, Vincent? You can start owning any time now...
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#4 | tgs2 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:05:35 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
LOOK AT THIS

SEPHIROTH YOUR ASS ABOUT TO GET SWALLOWED BY A TSUNAMI OF PINK FLUFF


Big Boss > Kirby > Sephiroth.
#5 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/20/2013 9:05:38 PM | message detail
dat Vincent board vote is something else.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
#6 | Wanglicious | Posted 8/20/2013 9:05:44 PM | message detail
....if this match ends Mewtwo > PW > Vincent

i will laugh so, so hard.
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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.
#7 | pjbasis | Posted 8/20/2013 9:05:51 PM | message detail
Vincent just keeps going down what
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#8 | nkansas13 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:05:54 PM | message detail
Phoenix is losing the board vote. This may be a first.
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Hey I just met you, and this is crazy, but you have died of dysentery.
#9 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/20/2013 9:06:09 PM | message detail
I'm just tumbling down the Expert leaderboard now

my time to shine is finished ;_;
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F*** BT
#10 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 9:06:20 PM | message detail
Turks? MO' LIKE TURKEYS
#11 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/20/2013 9:06:41 PM | message detail
Vincent better get his ass in gear. I figured he'd struggle but at this point, he could end up last for sure. He didn't make a single move during those first five.
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
#12 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/20/2013 9:06:51 PM | message detail
I really wonder what this match would be like if Phoenix and Vincent didn't look absolutely awful
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#13 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:06:56 PM | message detail
Honestly Vincent looks like a random anime school boy
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 71/93 Today's Picks: Vincent and Bowser
#14 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/20/2013 9:07:02 PM | message detail
Is there official art of Cloud crossdressing?
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#15 | LOZLTTP | Posted 8/20/2013 9:07:04 PM | message detail
my phoenix pick looks slightly less idiotic in light of this lol
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Many people, of course, use 'sentimentalism' as a term of abuse for other people's decent feelings, and realism as a disguise for their own brutality. G H Hardy
#16 | Qwaar | Posted 8/20/2013 9:07:13 PM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
I'm just tumbling down the Expert leaderboard now

my time to shine is finished ;_;


Same...was third at one point, now I'm way off the top 50.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#17 | FFDragon | Posted 8/20/2013 9:07:14 PM | message detail
I wonder how many people don't even realize that's FF7 Vincent.

I'm betting quite a few.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
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#18 | creativename | Posted 8/20/2013 9:07:14 PM | message detail
Whoever made this pic for Vincent needs to end themselves, seriously.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
#19 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 9:07:19 PM | message detail
Also

Lower votes in Asia just makes my point more legitimate. There weren't 200 people from reddit in that thread from Indonesia when there were hundreds (maybe thousands) from China? It just doesn't make sense.


LoL is huge in China. HUGE. Impossible to overstate how ridiculously big it is. It's gigantic. China is so big on LoL it's the only server that has its own custom artwork for everything.
#20 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/20/2013 9:07:21 PM | message detail
nkansas13 posted...
Phoenix is losing the board vote. This may be a first.


Nah, Big Boss got the board vote over him the first time he had a Naked Snake picture.

Apparently, odd pic choices are Phoenix's kryptonite.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#21 | superange128 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:07:24 PM | message detail
nkansas13 posted...
Phoenix is losing the board vote. This may be a first.


Pokemon's still pretty darn hot here
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#22 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/20/2013 9:07:24 PM | message detail
Mewtwo doubling Phoenix. It's ridiculous. Either there's a rally here, Vincent has dropped off a cliff, or Mewtwo is Noble Nine level now.
#23 | vcharon | Posted 8/20/2013 9:07:26 PM | message detail
Vincent looks like Phoenix's lawyer sidekick. Really crass...
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Still smilin'
:>
#24 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/20/2013 9:07:36 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
81------1------------100.00
80------7------------100.00
79------7------------100.00
78------30----------100.00
77------66----------98.48
76------79----------100.00
75------90----------100.00
74------107--------100.00
73------128--------99.22
72------141--------98.58
71------159--------97.48
70------200--------98.00
69------245--------97.96
68------342--------97.08
67------429--------96.97
66------524--------94.27
65------658--------93.92
64------749--------93.99
63------770--------93.51
62------880--------91.82
61------893--------90.03
60------882--------87.76
59------792--------87.25
58------746--------83.11
57------693--------82.11
56------640--------80.47
55------589--------78.44
54------516--------73.45
53------431--------70.30
52------421--------69.83
51------380--------63.68
50------307--------62.21
49------258--------59.30
48------283--------55.48
47------203--------48.28
46------203--------56.16
45------209--------43.54
44------136--------46.32
43------134--------41.04
42------122--------45.08
41------109--------41.28
40------105--------28.57
39------82----------23.17
38------69----------30.43
37------59----------25.42
36------49----------24.49
35------48----------33.33
34------50----------10.00
33------38----------10.53
32------29----------6.90
31------16----------12.50
30------20----------15.00
29------16----------18.75
28------18----------11.11
27------9------------11.11
26------8------------12.50
25------11----------18.18
24------4------------0.00
23------4------------0.00
22------8------------0.00
21------3------------0.00
20------5------------0.00
19------2------------0.00
18------2------------0.00
17------2------------0.00
16------1------------0.00
15------0------------0.00
14------1------------0.00
13------4------------0.00
12------0------------0.00
11------1------------0.00
10------13----------0.00
9--------1------------0.00
8--------1------------0.00
7--------0------------0.00
6--------1------------0.00
5--------5------------0.00
4--------0------------0.00
3--------6------------0.00
2--------3------------0.00
1--------1------------0.00

An easy match. Even in the middle tiers prediction percentage breaks 90. One person in the top 111 does get it wrong, though.

No one fell off the Top 49.
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Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32
#25 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/20/2013 9:07:50 PM | message detail
I think now that people have discovered Reddits rally potential the rest of this contest will be kinda wonky. A big reddit topic for Mewtwo now is bringing in all these votes and making it an easy win for him even if you ignore the picture. Where does it end? I'm almost expecting Dragonborn to actually beat Tifa again now since Reddit loves Skyrim
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#26 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/20/2013 9:07:57 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Mewtwo doubling Phoenix. It's ridiculous. Either there's a rally here, Vincent has dropped off a cliff, or Mewtwo is Noble Nine level now.


Or...

he was ridiculously sabotaged by the picture on a level we've never seen before.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#27 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/20/2013 9:08:03 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I really wonder what this match would be like if Phoenix and Vincent didn't look absolutely awful


Come on bro, that's a good pic for Phoenix. It looks just like him. If anything, he might be hurt because Vincent looks exactly like him, but as a suited normal man, Phoenix was gonna look like this hilarious version of Vincent no matter what.
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#28 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 9:08:06 PM | message detail
Also, we've broken a thousand votes in five minutes. This is definitely a rally showing up, when Sonic's match couldn't break it in seven and it was a high scoring affair.
#29 | HyperSage | Posted 8/20/2013 9:08:13 PM | message detail
TRE, how many alts do you have on the Expert Leaderboard?

It seems like a lot of the bottom ones are you.
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WhiteLens while on the Expert Leaderboard.
#30 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:08:18 PM | message detail
Phoenix looks fine, might not be his best, but anyone can tell it's him.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 71/93 Today's Picks: Vincent and Bowser
#31 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/20/2013 9:08:18 PM | message detail
By the way, this Vincent picture is an abomination and I am so damn embarrassed as a picsmith that it happened.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#32 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:08:32 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Is there official art of Cloud crossdressing?


Is there official art of Cloud dressed like Lightning?
#33 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:08:45 PM | message detail
#34 | scifi1980 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:09:24 PM | message detail
Jesus tap dancing Christ!



This tournament started out like a typical small town afternoon day, then somebody dumped PCP's in the water table and the place went ape****!


I thought I was doing pretty good in the pick em but the last few matches totally humped my score card into the ground.
#35 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/20/2013 9:09:24 PM | message detail
Mewtwo's rally is on page 2 already
#36 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/20/2013 9:09:33 PM | message detail
It is not at all a good pic for Phoenix. It has none of his energy, and he just looks plain stupid.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#37 | superange128 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:09:34 PM | message detail
it maybe a rally

Lightning/DK/Falco (for comparison) had 646 total votes at 12:06:05 while this has 300 more
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#38 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/20/2013 9:10:03 PM | message detail
Holy crap, Mewtwo is getting reddit rallied?

Oh Draven
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#39 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:10:09 PM | message detail
Mewtwo's rally is on page 2 already

Well there goes the fun out of stats...
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 71/93 Today's Picks: Vincent and Bowser
#40 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:10:35 PM | message detail
PHOENIX
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~
#41 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/20/2013 9:10:35 PM | message detail
HAHAHAHAHA


HAHAHHAHAA

WHAT IS HAPPENING
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Demyx is better than Axel.
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#42 | Achromatic | Posted 8/20/2013 9:10:35 PM | message detail
Mewtwo > Phoenix > Vincent is a go.

Let us all shun paulg so hard. No one knows who that is.
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#43 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/20/2013 9:10:56 PM | message detail
#44 | ZFS | Posted 8/20/2013 9:10:57 PM | message detail
Everything awful has the most rally potential it's a recurring theme
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#45 | pjbasis | Posted 8/20/2013 9:11:00 PM | message detail
So is Phoenix getting a rally too because he went up
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#46 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:11:13 PM | message detail
wow
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#47 | tgs2 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:11:15 PM | message detail
This is sure some rally for Mewtwo. He might only get quadrupled by Draven when they meet!
#48 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 9:11:23 PM | message detail
Votals stabilizing. Vincent should perform better now.
#49 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/20/2013 9:11:29 PM | message detail
Phoenix > Vincent > Squall

hold dat, Leon
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F*** BT
#50 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/20/2013 9:11:43 PM | message detail
what if reddit just trolls us and rallies for Phoenix instead
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Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~