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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1121
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rpgsruleall posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...1337gamerpr0 posted...KanzarisKelshen posted...1337gamerpr0 posted...if you're serious about taking out Draven, it's quite simple: take down reddit for the duration of the match --- Fortune favors the bold. -Vergil |
And now re-presenting the Votal Stats, with overly extensive quotes from 2009 stats topics! First, I have to acknowledge LMS for inspiring this whole idea. He made lots of posts in which he used votals instead of percentages to analyze matches, and was annoying the whole topic as his approach didn't seem to yield anything useful. I'll just excerpt one post to give a flavor: LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/14/2009 8:17:38 AM | message detail My initial response to LMS, made without thinking this would really work: red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:50:25 AM | message detail The topic discusses the idea for a bit: red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:58:09 AM | message detail charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 10:06:51 AM | message detail LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 10:11:12 AM | message detail [Continued] --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 11:32:24 AM | message detail [Continued] --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
And now, your 2009 V-Stats, based on round 1 matches! red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 11:39:01 AM | message detail --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
red sox 777 posted... First, I have to acknowledge LMS for inspiring this whole idea. LMS>Kanz confirmed |
Were V-Stats for the contest compiled post-finals? Because I wonder how much they'd differ from the results we got. |
Now,
that list gets a lot of things wrong, and a lot of things right (in
particular, I'm happy to say those V-stats nailed FFVII/OOT within a
percentage point). But keep in mind, it is based off of a single round
of a 4-way contest, with loads of LFF and SFF interfering. No
adjustments have been made. And the unadjusted X-Stats often look as
far off as this, not to mention 4-way X-stats. After we moved back to 1v1, I more or less abandoned these, as they no longer seemed to add any value in 1v1 polls since the normal x-stats were a lot more accurate than in 4-ways. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5229.jpg HAHAHA Only bad thing about this is that everyone will be switching to Mewtwo now. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif |
Everyone should be switching to Mewtwo anyway, considering he's going to get reddit rallies to save GameFAQs and all that! --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
Doesn't
look like V-Stats were ever posted to the stats topic after the contest
ended. I vaguely remember working them out, which suggests that their
accuracy probably didn't improve too much by adding in the other 5
rounds of data. Or at least, once you can extrapolate matches, a system
that doesn't require extrapolation doesn't seem as useful. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Anyone
who takes down reddit.com would be a great person. They'd probably be
killed and the body would never be found, but they'd be a great person. |
Haha oh wow, straight up shameless sabotage on Vincent. In every sense of the word, for those users that wanna be pedantic. I mean, by far the best result for my bracket, but I have Link winning the contest so I'm screwed anyway. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
*looks at picture* Screw it, I'm not changing my analysis. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 68/87 Today's Picks: Mega Man X and Sonic |
Yeah
that sabotage is ridiculous. That's bordering on sprite Snake levels.
If you haven't played whatever that comes from (I assume Dirge?) then
you just flat out won't recognise him. I know I wouldn't recognise him. I don't understand why people sabotage pics tbh. --- Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time |
Now watch Vincent smoke the poll hard. I honestly wouldn't be surprised at this point. |
ShatteredElysium posted... Yeah that sabotage is ridiculous. That's bordering on sprite Snake levels. If you haven't played whatever that comes from (I assume Dirge?) then you just flat out won't recognise him. I know I wouldn't recognise him. Because they are looking to leverage an advantage for their preferred character. Some people sabotage pictures. Others rally 50,000+ votes off-site. It's all just about how it's done. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I
mean, night match, strength imbalance, whatever factors you wanted to
argue for Vincent just go out the window in the face of that thing.
Vincent is perhaps the most design dependent character in the contest after Dante. The destruction this could wreak on him is unreal. If Mewtwo can't put up a fight against that thing I'm throwing my Pikachu > Crono pick out the window. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Uh, isn't Vincent way stronger than Mewtwo to start with? Unless we're expecting a big rally..... --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Karma Hunter posted...
leverage everything to take down Draven I'm ok with this it even helps your upset pick! |
red sox 777 posted... Uh, isn't Vincent way stronger than Mewtwo to start with? Unless we're expecting a big rally..... Vincent couldn't double KOS-MOS in round 1 |
red sox 777 posted... Uh, isn't Vincent way stronger than Mewtwo to start with? Unless we're expecting a big rally..... Mewtwo is a midcarder and Vincent's a near elite, but he's lost a step if his match with Kossy and Dunban says anything. We don't know how big a step it was because we have no 1v1 reads on KOS-MOS, but if it's large enough Mewtwo could take it, especially if the Pokemon rallies go through. I'm kinda worried about Phoenix, though - he just might leech Mewtwo to death of his handheld support and allow Vincent to crush the poll. |
Off
2k10 stats Vincent does something silly like 65/35 to Mewtwo iirc. Of
course even without the sabotage I wouldn't expect it to be that wide
but yeah, if Mewtwo comes close to him or beats him then that pic is
going to be a large contributor. EDIT: Actually I forgot Vincent went out to Seph in 2k10. Even so, his previous values probably put him in the low 60 range on Mewtwo. --- Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time |
I
think Barret just showed extrapolating through FF7 low level matches is
no good, unless you're set on believing Solid Snake gets 74% on Sonic. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I wouldn't worry about Phoenix. Phoenix/Mewtwo LFF is a lighter shadow than Link/Crono LFF. I'm also not too concerned about only doubling KOS-MOS. FFVII always puts up horrible performances in round 1 against weak characters. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
I
think Barret just showed extrapolating through FF7 low level matches is
no good, unless you're set on believing Solid Snake gets 74% on Sonic. So if Link finishes at 72% on Sonic in a 24-hr match and there is no SFF, that give Snake just under 54% on Link 2010? Which probably puts him right around Base Link, and at around 46% on the super powered Link of 2004-8 that we know and love. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
1337gamerpr0 posted... Karma Hunter posted... You can't really hurt Draven more than the Round 2 pic he got. I mean, just look at it. He can't go anywhere but up from there. For reference, these are the pictures he still has available. http://www.team-dignitas.org/uploads/tinymce/images/draven_splash.jpg http://www.gettherax.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/draven2.jpg If we get a sprite round the problem persists, too - he looks memetic whenever he's doing anything except stand still. One of his random animations is the Usain Bolt pose, another one is the one Spike does at the end of Cowboy Bebop...he's not gonna be really possible to sabotage. |
The
strength difference between Snake and Pikachu is ridiculously massive
as well, but that didn't stop Pikachu from turning a result that would
have approached 65/35 into a 55/45 affair thanks to Sprite Snake.
Obviously this thing is untested so there's no 100% certainty, but it
just immediately seems logical that Vincent is fighting a battle rigged
against him in this match. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Yeah, I'm done with this contest if this Draven stuff is going to keep being a thing. --- In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment. |
And
what do you know, Snake actually got 45% on Link in 2008! So he's
boosted 1% since then and he's all set to stomp Link in the finals.
After Mario LFF, Snake will be getting like 57-58% on Link. The power of extrapolation. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... You can't really hurt Draven more than the Round 2 pic he got. I mean, just look at it. He can't go anywhere but up from there. For reference, these are the pictures he still has available. I'm pretty sure Draven's pic factor had roughly zero effect, I doubt the LoL hivemind clicked on the poll and went "lol Draven looks like a loser, haha not voting him" that+stuffed votes means it doesn't matter |
red sox 777 posted... And what do you know, Snake actually got 45% on Link in 2008! So he's boosted 1% since then and he's all set to stomp Link in the finals. After Mario LFF, Snake will be getting like 57-58% on Link. dammit Draven --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
What the hell is that Vincent picture? I guess if Snake wasn't hurt by that pic he got against Zelda in 2005 (probably the worst non-sprite pic we've seen), anything's possible. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
Isn't that how Vincent looked in the flashback scene in FFVII? Of course it was just a model with lego hands and stuff but still |
1337gamerpr0 posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...You can't really hurt Draven more than the Round 2 pic he got. I mean, just look at it. He can't go anywhere but up from there. For reference, these are the pictures he still has available. You said to leverage everything in response to a pic sabotage post. I was pointing out that you can't do that worse than it already has been done. |
Nanis23 posted... Isn't that how Vincent looked in the flashback scene in FFVII? Kinda http://images.wikia.com/finalfantasy/images/0/01/Vincent-ffvii-turk.png Although I honestly couldn't remember what the model looked like until I googled it. EDIT: In before someone uses that in the sprite round if he progresses... --- Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time |
Man, we chatted so much about stuffing in the stuffing topic that...well, look who decided to come in again: SBAllen Just a few more notes: |
Team Rocket Elite posted... Score-Brackets-% Right Wow.. looking at this, I regret that my now 73 point bracket only picked Draven to get to round 3 but didn't have the fortitude to call him beating Link -- as someone who plays LoL and frequents the subreddit daily (yes, there are people who have been on GameFAQs for over 10 years who actually do that), I figured a rally to beat X and Ryu would be plausible. All that said, I didn't anticipate how strong the rally would be; and no, I firmly maintain that there wasn't any stuffing, even if that idea helps preserve the narrow GameFAQs B8 hivemind -- yes, B8 has a hivemind, there's just not nearly as many people as the subreddit. On a related note, the sheer level of sanctimony I've seen on this board in the last 22 hours really reminds me why I stopped frequenting the board regularly a few years ago. A threat to Link that many have pined for finally appears, and suddenly everyone goes all Chicken Little that these contests are forever ruined. It just blows my mind. And reading all the mudslinging from many board regulars that everyone from Reddit just felt like trolling a contest, and they must be immature teenagers who have nothing better to do than ruin a precious internet contest just stinks of hypocrisy given the level of maturity I've seen in some people's posts. This isn't the first time the LoL community has bonded together to promote their favorite game in an internet contest, and won't be the last. In all honesty, it's a damn shame that more people don't care about their favorite games like many members of the LoL community (and frankly the game's developers) care about theirs. I'm sure nobody really cares about this post, and nobody will miss me when I eventually fade back into obscurity like I generally am on GameFAQs, but I just had to get this off my chest. Rallies for characters like Draven won't be the death of this contest, the insularity and close-mindedness of many members of this community will be. It's painfully obvious how much vote totals and site traffic has declined since these contests started a decade ago, and continued stagnation and resistance to outside involvement will just ensure that interest in these contests, and the site in general, continue to wane in future years. A lot of you should be ashamed of yourselves. --- I pwn you all! |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Man, we chatted so much about stuffing in the stuffing topic that...well, look who decided to come in again: like anyone trusts him with fudged data guys, I'm really sure Tidus conveniently attempted to "stuff" against Missingno at the same proportion Crono supposedly did, why don't you believe me! |
Match LXXXVI: (2) Phoenix Wright vs. (23) Vincent Valentine vs. (11) Mewtwo Previous Round Phoenix Wright – 44.30% Marth – 36.07% Nightmare – 19.63% Vincent Valentine – 53.50% KOS-MOS – 35.09% Dunban – 10.61% Mewtwo – 81.80% Zero – 14.69% Chester – 3.51% Analysis This match has the potential to be quite interesting. If we were to believe the first round results Vincent is expected to finish in last. There is no reason for KOS-MOS to be stronger than when we last saw her, if anything she should be weaker. On a positive side this is not the first time we have seen Vincent perform badly in the first round. The most obvious example is Falco in 2008 who went from 37% to 29% against Vincent between rounds. If the same thing is true that would place Vincent as the heavy favourite to win the match. If Vincent return to around his old self the fight for second would still be interesting. Mewtwo has never been given a fair match to show his strength, at best he is likely ranked somewhere below the near-elite characters. While he was able to get the highest percent in the first round it is clear the reason why is because he got the weakest and one of the weakest opponents in the entire bracket. Phoenix Wright looked pretty good last round and for good reason; his exposure in Marvel vs. Capcom 3 introduced many people to him and his series. For laughs if we hold Nightmare constant Phoenix is almost threatening the noble nine, but with Soul Calibur falling off the edge it is likely Nightmare is the one that has fallen. Still his performance against Marth was impressive and if you think about it Phoenix Wright does not need a ridiculous boost in order to defeat Mewtwo. Like with Barret I expect Vincent to rebound from his first round performance. I am going to side with Mewtwo for second, I feel he is a bit underrated by the board and should Marth benefit from Sephiroth’s anti-votes in 2010 it would make Phoenix Wright’s performance not as impressive. Though with the way things look we could very well have the reverse order. charmander6000’s Bracket: Vincent Valentine > Mewtwo and Marth charmander6000’s Prediction: Vincent Valentine – 40.54%, Mewtwo – 30.87%, Phoenix Wright – 28.59% --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 68/87 Today's Picks: Mega Man X and Sonic |
Chester stats for the last two ninepacks. Shepard - 3.28¢ Aerith - 3.13¢ Olimar - 1.79¢ Hero - 1.58¢ Tharja - 1.48¢ Tina - 1.44¢ Rinoa - 1.43¢ Juliet - 1.16¢ Kain - 1.00¢ Draven - 21.05¢ Jak - 17.27¢ Chie - 13.70¢ X - 6.06¢ Ryu - 4.53¢ Jigglypuff - 2.23¢ Yuri - 2.13¢ Face - 1.40¢ Welkin - 1.00¢ --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
I
really don't know why people are coming up with convoluted theories to
explain what was an obvious rally as one of the greatest stuffing jobs
in the history of polling (seriously, if anyone went to those lengths to
cover their tracks there are a few corrupt governments out there that
should look in to hiring them). The LoL subreddit has gigantic traffic.
Reddit has even more gigantic traffic. This is the information age and
the ability to share relevant information between vast numbers of people
is becoming ever more streamlined and efficient. It was a matter of
time before this happened. The question is whether or not this is a
permanent change in contest dynamics that can be replicated or a one-off
freak event that will not (my suspicion is that it will be repeated). --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
clearly the only real solution is for one of the board members to straight up buy gamefaqs |
Holy Chesters, Batman! Draven's so strong, he manages to pull in a Mewtwoesque value without having actually fodderized Chester! |
Now what happens when Draven fodderizes Mewtwo? ZimbabweFAQs. --- When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore |
Man,
aside from the absolute lack of respect for contest rules and the
community of this site, Bacon is accepting clear sabotage pictures
(first X now this). Apparantly the contests are all about who can cheat the most (whether picsmiths or LoL fanboys) to get their bracket to win. What a disgrace. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
ChenKenichiFan posted... http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5229.jpg lawl! Mewtwo > Vincent confirmed. Wow. --- FFIXOwner Character Battle IX Bracket: 76/90 |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Man, aside from the absolute lack of respect for contest rules and the community of this site, Bacon is accepting clear sabotage pictures (first X now this). I know people say they want you to leave, but I disagree. Nobody is as salty as you are and it is HILARIOUS to read. Keep it up! --- GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC |
I'm
sticking with Vincent. Hopefully that works out and the Expert hivemind
decides to bail so I can make up for my own loss of logic over Dracula
today! it won't though --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Wow. Those percentages stayed constant pretty much all match. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
WHA.... WHAT? That Vincent pic. NO. That cannot fly. --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
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