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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1121
- Team Aqua Elite (37)
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KanzarisKelshen posted... Search 'Ace Attorney' and take a look through my playthrough topics. I'm the same way in all topics, and I'm not making stuff up to rile you. He's right. Kanz is the greatest at taking something decent and completely running it into the ground and making it totally unreadable. Those Ace Attorney topics are a fine example. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/874243/big-boss-o.gif |
red sox 777 posted... What's unbelievable about it? Draven can rally 400 votes in 5 minutes, why can't Starcraft rally 2000 in 6 hours? Because the channels used for Starcraft rallying were not even one percent as effective as the ones used for Draven. We can agree on this, right? |
I'm still laughing at the whole social experiment thing --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 68/87 Today's Picks: Mega Man X and Sonic |
Yes, that's why Starcraft could only rally 2000 votes while Draven can "rally" 50,000. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
LeonhartFour posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...Search 'Ace Attorney' and take a look through my playthrough topics. I'm the same way in all topics, and I'm not making stuff up to rile you. Aww, thanks, Leon, you shouldn't have. |
Just imagine if those LoL Draven voters actually voted for every match. --- ~ The Dilated One IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard |
Because
the channels used for Starcraft rallying were not even one percent as
effective as the ones used for Draven. We can agree on this, right? Battle.net forums on a Saturday, really? --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 68/87 Today's Picks: Mega Man X and Sonic |
red sox 777 posted... Yes, that's why Starcraft could only rally 2000 votes while Draven can "rally" 50,000. This is switching the goalposts. You just used an example of Draven rallying to back starcraft up. Now that we're arguing just how drastically different the reach of their rallies are, you're trying to dress the Draven rallies down again. They're not different enough to do that! |
The
only thing that throws me in regards to Draven stuffing is Geolocation.
Are we to believe that the person stuffing not only fixed things so
that every country received "votes" in the right proportion, but that
they fixed it so that every state within the countries that show such
things received votes in the right proportion as well? In regards to the Europe bias in Draven's first match, the ratio of people that go to GameFAQS vs those that go to the LoL subreddit is probably much more tipped towards the latter in Europe, so that's why rallying on it there would be more effective. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
charmander6000 posted... Because the channels used for Starcraft rallying were not even one percent as effective as the ones used for Draven. We can agree on this, right? Forums are really not very effective at swinging votes. We have a nigh-infinite amount of examples of this. Most highly successful rallies swing a couple hundred voters, tops. Are we revising history and saying Planet Gamecube rallying pulled in 4000 votes or something? |
Dilated Chemist posted... Just imagine if those LoL Draven voters actually voted for every match. If even 1/4 of those Draven voters voted every match I wouldn't have an issue with Draven roflstomping everything. An extra 12.5k votes from a completely different userbase every match would be enough to considerably shake up the rest of the field with the votals we have nowadays. --- Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time |
Trend chart from the night match: Time | Draven | Ryu | MMX | Votes 0:05 | 16.22% | 34.68% | 49.10% | 888 1:00 | 53.55% | 18.32% | 28.14% | 11274 2:00 | 70.16% | 11.31% | 18.53% | 12130 3:00 | 71.34% | 11.51% | 17.16% | 8761 4:00 | 72.10% | 11.43% | 16.47% | 7612 5:00 | 72.63% | 12.32% | 15.05% | 6072 6:00 | 74.74% | 12.54% | 12.72% | 5653 7:00 | 70.88% | 13.21% | 15.92% | 5679 8:00 | 67.79% | 14.87% | 17.34% | 5831 9:00 | 65.71% | 15.42% | 18.87% | 5798 10:00 | 60.35% | 18.43% | 21.22% | 5481 11:00 | 61.14% | 17.88% | 20.98% | 5342 12:00 | 60.54% | 17.40% | 22.06% | 5145 This is a thing, all right. X-Stats: Draven 50.00% Jak 45.06% Chie Satonaka 39.42% Mega Man X 22.36% Ryu 17.72% Jigglypuff 12.03% Yuri Lowell 11.33% Face McShooty 8.38% Welkin Gunther 6.34% And in case anybody missed them last night, I made X-Stats based on the first ten minutes of the match before Draven made his first cut: Mega Man X 50.00% Ryu 42.26% Draven 27.36% Yuri Lowell 27.02% Jigglypuff 26.91% Jak 24.66% Chie Satonaka 21.57% Face McShooty 19.99% Welkin Gunther 14.17% Draven's prediction percentage was 9.20% --- http://gifsoup.com/view4/2077316/thane-dance-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view1/1334641/pop-that-collar-o.gif |
ShatteredElysium posted... Dilated Chemist posted...Just imagine if those LoL Draven voters actually voted for every match. instead it's more like -5%! yeah! |
That 6:00 hour with MMX having 12% is hilarious |
I
would feel legitimately arguing this point would imply more importance
than just yanking people's chains, but I digress. It just feels like
you're trying to artificially maintain interest in... something that's
no longer interesting. Draven being so rallyable was a genuine surprise, and if you or someone else parlayed that well you'll come out with some nice prizes. But it's not the destination, it's the journey - and due to that journey being a foregone conclusion it's going to get apathy from now onward. I don't feel like this is a contest ruiner, the rest of the contest is interesting enough. This is only, what, one match that it takes out of play (Link v Cloud/Snake v Mario)? But I don't feel compelled to wonder any longer when it comes to Draven's matches - you might as well ask me to pore over a Link/Pac-Man match and see if I can get enough non-gamers rallied to put Pac-Man over the top. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
I think the worst part about this is this influx of awful reddit users. Also rallying Link should in general be more effective (besides the lack of super-dedicated forums) since the equilibrium position is a Link landslide (i.e. less backfire) --- I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword |
Another
annoying thing about Draven is that much of his strength comes from the
fact that he is in a multiplayer game. Multiplayer games are more
rally-able than singleplayer games, plain and simple. That doesn't mean
the characters are more liked. --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
Kanz,
I'm not switching the goalposts. I said that even if you thought SC
was stuffing, at most it was 3% of the votes in the match. And it's
entirely plausible for it to be all rallying. Whereas by Lopen's
estimates more than 50% of the votes from the last match were stuffed. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Forums
are really not very effective at swinging votes. We have a
nigh-infinite amount of examples of this. Most highly successful rallies
swing a couple hundred voters, tops. Are we revising history and saying
Planet Gamecube rallying pulled in 4000 votes or something? At 129k votes I have no issue with thinking that --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 68/87 Today's Picks: Mega Man X and Sonic |
Not
PlanetGamecube by itself, but that match did receive around 50,000
votes more than previous matches were getting in that contest. It's a
shame we don't have updates saved for that match. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Eh, I don't think rallying Link is gonna be all
easy, especially since Link has a stigma about always winning in these
things (and rightfully!). He's still the only hope considering the
bracket setup. If the finals by some impossibility ended up
Draven/Snake/Fodder I think Snake would be the better go-to guy for pure
rally effect. Not that it would matter either way. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Current X-Stats as they stand right now: Sonic the Hedgehog 50.00% Barret Wallace 34.22% Dracula 32.14% Professor Layton 26.29% Lucina 23.89% Fei Fong Wong 23.33% Reimu Hakurei 18.69% Dan Hibiki 16.95% Caim 6.58% For the record, if you assume Tharja = Lucina, Sonic beats Shepard with 61.57% --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
Draven beats Shepard with 93%. --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE] http://img.imgcake.com/finegifdy.gif |
Also I suppose I will continue talking into a vacuum since nobody seems to be interested in talking about Not-Draven Can't wait for Phoenix to upset Mewtwo tonight...! --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
red sox 777 posted... Kanz, I'm not switching the goalposts. I said that even if you thought SC was stuffing, at most it was 3% of the votes in the match. And it's entirely plausible for it to be all rallying. Whereas by Lopen's estimates more than 50% of the votes from the last match were stuffed. On one hand, this is possible. We saw a huge drop in Starcraft's strength from 2004 to 2009, and it could have been because the bandwagon was gone and it reverted to base strength. On the other hand, I find it really hard to believe a game that lost super decisively to Final Fantasy 8 ever had the strength to win a 100k vote match. The numbers just do not add up to me, unless you think Halo was worth a lot that year. So that's the root of my skepticism - it requires too many additional assumptions for me to take a proven stuffer at face value than to assume it was more legit than Draven. |
If Vincent/KOS-MOS holds up Vincent could finish in last --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 68/87 Today's Picks: Mega Man X and Sonic |
If Barret/Layton held up, Barret would've finished in last here, too...! --- http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg |
LeonhartFour posted... Also I suppose I will continue talking into a vacuum since nobody seems to be interested in talking about Not-Draven He has my vote. Really hoping we see a weirdly close match tonight. |
LeonhartFour posted... Also I suppose I will continue talking into a vacuum since nobody seems to be interested in talking about Not-Draven I didn't realize you were talking about anything else! I could see Phoenix undercutting Mewtwo or flat-out beating him with the right picture. I could also see Mewtwo steamrolling the match if someone decides to make a dedicated Pokemon reddit rally <_< --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
Lucina > Fei? Would we take Fire Emblem: Awakening over Xenogears in another games contest? --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
If Barret/Layton held up, Barret would've finished in last here, too...! That's why I have him winning. Thinking about FFVII anti-votes if it happened in Sephiroth/Marth then Phoenix's performance was not that impressive. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 68/87 Today's Picks: Mega Man X and Sonic |
Proven?
How? I mean other than the 1400 votes it put up against SSBM in 20
minutes that was of a completely different character than all the other
stuff? Keep in mind Starcraft didn't beat any really strong opponents in 2004- the strongest was Wind Waker. And we've seen many times how powerful bandwagons can be. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Heck Starcraft possibly still beats Halo in 2009. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 68/87 Today's Picks: Mega Man X and Sonic |
Phoenix's
performance was impressive by his standards. He's certainly improved,
but Marth isn't any better than the Falcons and Nesses of the world. --- http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png |
Ryu is terrible fodder and should be banned from these contests. Who the hell gets doubled by CHIE!? --- If you believe in the Lord FE7 and you accept FE7 as the Savior of video games and are 100% proud of it, put this in your sig. |
Also I look forward to being atop the Expert Leaderboard when my Phoenix > Mewtwo pick pays off...! Phoenix being in the match does sort of negate Mewtwo's biggest chance of upsetting Vincent, which is getting off to a huge head start and trying to hold Vincent off. He won't be winning the board vote with Phoenix around. --- http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif |
OrangeCrush980 posted... Ryu is terrible fodder and should be banned from these contests. Who the hell gets doubled by CHIE!? Heh.red sox 777 posted... Proven? How? I mean other than the 1400 votes it put up against SSBM in 20 minutes that was of a completely different character than all the other stuff? We have, but by all reckonings Starcraft started at an incredibly low floor. We're talking about enough consecutive boosts to go from 16-20% on BL to something like 38. That's a lot to ask of a bandwagon. Charizard couldn't do as much, and he had an even more impressive run than Starcraft did. |
So
let's run some non-Draven numbers just to get away from that for a
week. How much is Snake projected to get on Sonic right now considering
Isaac and Barret's performances on Layton? |
We
have, but by all reckonings Starcraft started at an incredibly low
floor. We're talking about enough consecutive boosts to go from 16-20%
on BL to something like 38. That's a lot to ask of a bandwagon.
Charizard couldn't do as much, and he had an even more impressive run
than Starcraft did. No. No we are not. It beat Halo the first round. It beat Kingdom Hearts the second round without needing to rally. It beat Wind Waker the third round. Then it lost narrowly to SSBM, about 51/49 with known stuffed votes removed. Probably more like a 5% boost than 20%. Keep in mind that SSBM and CT likely overperformed substantially on FFVII too. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
tgs2 posted... So let's run some non-Draven numbers just to get away from that for a week. How much is Snake projected to get on Sonic right now considering Isaac and Barret's performances on Layton? If I did my math correctly... 73.65% --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
Note:
I probably did not, but I'm on my way out the door and did quick 5
second estimates without checking to see if I did the process right. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
ShatteredElysium posted... Dilated Chemist posted...Just imagine if those LoL Draven voters actually voted for every match. Same here. It would be amazing to have these contests be fresh again. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
tgs2 posted... So let's run some non-Draven numbers just to get away from that for a week. How much is Snake projected to get on Sonic right now considering Isaac and Barret's performances on Layton? Ooh, I can already tell you that's gonna be bad for SNOIC ...Solid Snake gets 74% on Sonic the Hedgehog. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) |
red sox 777 posted... We have, but by all reckonings Starcraft started at an incredibly low floor. We're talking about enough consecutive boosts to go from 16-20% on BL to something like 38. That's a lot to ask of a bandwagon. Charizard couldn't do as much, and he had an even more impressive run than Starcraft did. So what you're saying is that SSBM was like 33% worth on BL in 2004, Halo was worth 27%, and Starcraft boosted from the latter point to the former? That sounds incredibly unlikely. Just how much do you think SSBM gained in strength from 2004 to 2009? |
Oh, looks like my math was correct then. --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
are there any trends to give Dracula any hope outside of a rally? for second that is --- "L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember "L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass" |
So
what you're saying is that SSBM was like 33% worth on BL in 2004, Halo
was worth 27%, and Starcraft boosted from the latter point to the
former? That sounds incredibly unlikely. Just how much do you think SSBM
gained in strength from 2004 to 2009? On BL? Do you mean FFVII? If those are numbers against FFVII, actually, that looks very good. I'd have pegged them right around there. I've had them pegged around there for years. And SSBM obviously boosted a lot after 2004. That was the Nintendo Boost, and SSBM was at the heart of it. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... red sox 777 posted...Kanz, I'm not switching the goalposts. I said that even if you thought SC was stuffing, at most it was 3% of the votes in the match. And it's entirely plausible for it to be all rallying. Whereas by Lopen's estimates more than 50% of the votes from the last match were stuffed. As an aside, I'd think if Soul Calibur had NOT replaced SSB (why this change was done will evade me forever, as were a few other questionable changes...), it might have outright lost in round 1. --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
red sox 777 posted... So what you're saying is that SSBM was like 33% worth on BL in 2004, Halo was worth 27%, and Starcraft boosted from the latter point to the former? That sounds incredibly unlikely. Just how much do you think SSBM gained in strength from 2004 to 2009? I generally like to think of games in terms of actual Base Link, actually. FF7 is too fickle and inconstant a measure to use because of its antivotes inflating the percent of everything that goes against it by an unknown quantity. |
im317 posted... are there any trends to give Dracula any hope outside of a rally? for second that is Don't think so. FF7 has a decent night vote so Dracula is hard pressed to make any significant gains. |
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