Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1121

#251 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/20/2013 12:40:07 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Fr0zoN posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
xp1337 posted...
Link w/Mario restraining him v Snake/Cloud was really the best final we could have hoped for given the bracket.

If you moved things around and somehow got Link to lose earlier (put Samus there? Doubt it works but let's just say it could) and ended up with Mario/Cloud/Snake that might be better but we don't have too many options here!


Yes, Mario/Snake/Cloud would be a legit final. Unfortunately, there's a Link in the way so I couldn't care one whit about the 'one true final' we were supposed to have. That **** was awful and I'm glad we've got something better to argue about than whether Link can lose with THIS albatross on his neck.


Argue about in what sense? Because we went from a debatable final to a massacre where there is no debate/argument.


'Link is going to turbofodderize Mario and win' vs. 'Mario is gonna LFF Link so he will lose'

That's it. That's all there was to argue about. The so-called debatable final was just an attempt at guessing where the SFF was going to fall.


But even that is better than guessing how much higher than 50% Draven will go. It was a "fake" final sure in the sense that its set up perfectly for Snake but it would give us one hell of a match, back and forth the whole way. Now we get 5 minutes of Snake winning the board vote and then Draven rising every update for the rest of the match. The Link/Mario/Snake final would also give evidence 1 way or the other on whether Link should be retired or not. If he can go through Mario to beat Snake then I'm 99% sure he would be retired and the next contest would profit as a result.

Next contest we could of had Mario/Cloud/Snake. Now there's no chance Link will be retired. All the Draven "fans" will disappear after his match so votals dont increase. Other fanbases are pissed off in general because of an outside rally that doesn't care whatsoever for the rest of the contest deciding matters. It's just a no win situation.
#252 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/20/2013 12:40:10 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Who said it was going to be predictable? We don't know that yet. As Ulti likes to quote from Chris Berman, "That's why they play the games". Why be defeatist? Draven just did something we thought absolutely, completely, utterly impossible, for the second time, bigger and better. Lightning has struck twice. At that point, what's a third strike?


Because he doubled Ryu and Mega Man X. COMBINED. That's something I'd take as a legitimate threat to sweep the contest.
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#253 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:40:18 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Mario/Snake needs to happen so Mario can put this to rest


Amen brother. Let's get that for the next 1v1 contest.
#254 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:40:42 PM | message detail
If Link was looking ridiculously anti-voted as we went on I think you could argue for a changing of the guard in the SFF hierarchy, at least temporarily, with Mario SFFing Link instead of the opposite.

Like I said is it probably wrong? Sure. But I think there was at least an argument to be made.
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#255 | ItGetsWorse | Posted 8/20/2013 12:42:23 PM | message detail
Have we ended the "ethics" debate regarding outside rallies yet?

I'm not going to get too upset over this, but MOST of the fun I and the majority of users here have with the bracket is using various measures to predict certain outcomes. Outside rallying essentially reduces the contest to predicting lotto numbers, which is about as far from fun as you can get.
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#256 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/20/2013 12:42:46 PM | message detail
Link/Mario is closer than Draven vs. GameFAQs, kanz.

Mario > Link is straight-up more reasonable than Draven losing even if he 'only' retains the strength he had last match.
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#257 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:42:50 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Who said it was going to be predictable? We don't know that yet. As Ulti likes to quote from Chris Berman, "That's why they play the games". Why be defeatist? Draven just did something we thought absolutely, completely, utterly impossible, for the second time, bigger and better. Lightning has struck twice. At that point, what's a third strike?


Because he doubled Ryu and Mega Man X. COMBINED. That's something I'd take as a legitimate threat to sweep the contest.


That's just it - it's a threat. It's not a gimme, because nobody tried to leverage the same forces that made Draven go on such a tear against Ryu and X. LoL has way more Reddit pull than any other game, but Draven is way weaker than anybody else still in the contest. He starts from a huge hole. You don't need a rally as big as LoL's to overcome him, especially as loyalty to the game decreases when you go up against more and more beloved entrants. That's going to change for Draven/Link for sure, because I'm going to be working on it - and I expect the rest of the board to chime in as well, if they are really so disgusted by the idea of GameFAQS users changing the course of the contest via votes.
#258 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:43:32 PM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Link/Mario is closer than Draven vs. GameFAQs, kanz.

Mario > Link is straight-up more reasonable than Draven losing even if he 'only' retains the strength he had last match.


Totally. I just don't think he's going to retain it. It depends on how much stuffing you think there was in the rally, really. I feel that's what it comes down to.
#259 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:44:14 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
If Link was looking ridiculously anti-voted as we went on I think you could argue for a changing of the guard in the SFF hierarchy, at least temporarily, with Mario SFFing Link instead of the opposite.

Like I said is it probably wrong? Sure. But I think there was at least an argument to be made.


Hmm...not this year, I think. You'd have to wait a good four or five at a minimum. GameFAQS is verrrrrrrrrrrrry resistant to change (look at the fallout of the Draven match).
#260 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/20/2013 12:45:14 PM | message detail
Can we add a section about not taking Kanz seriously to the first post?

He's getting literally worse than LMS.
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#261 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:46:29 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Can we add a section about not taking Kanz seriously to the first post?

He's getting literally worse than LMS.


board 8 only poll: LMS vs Kanz
#262 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/20/2013 12:46:56 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Who said it was going to be predictable? We don't know that yet. As Ulti likes to quote from Chris Berman, "That's why they play the games". Why be defeatist? Draven just did something we thought absolutely, completely, utterly impossible, for the second time, bigger and better. Lightning has struck twice. At that point, what's a third strike?


Because he doubled Ryu and Mega Man X. COMBINED. That's something I'd take as a legitimate threat to sweep the contest.


That's just it - it's a threat. It's not a gimme, because nobody tried to leverage the same forces that made Draven go on such a tear against Ryu and X. LoL has way more Reddit pull than any other game, but Draven is way weaker than anybody else still in the contest. He starts from a huge hole. You don't need a rally as big as LoL's to overcome him, especially as loyalty to the game decreases when you go up against more and more beloved entrants. That's going to change for Draven/Link for sure, because I'm going to be working on it - and I expect the rest of the board to chime in as well, if they are really so disgusted by the idea of GameFAQS users changing the course of the contest via votes.


Man Draven just seriously got 56,000 votes in a 12 hour NIGHT match against 2 midcarders/near elites. You could rally every Zelda site on the internet, Zelda reddit, 4 chan everything and nothing would make a difference. The contest ended in the last match. Nothing will stand up to that rally.
#263 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:48:04 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Can we add a section about not taking Kanz seriously to the first post?

He's getting literally worse than LMS.


Please, LMS doesn't have the swag to rope people into sticking with a project of his for a year and change. He's got ten years before he gets on my level, if ever!
#264 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/20/2013 12:48:17 PM | message detail
ItGetsWorse posted...
Have we ended the "ethics" debate regarding outside rallies yet?

I'm not going to get too upset over this, but MOST of the fun I and the majority of users here have with the bracket is using various measures to predict certain outcomes. Outside rallying essentially reduces the contest to predicting lotto numbers, which is about as far from fun as you can get.


Same here. I'm glad people are having fun - hell maybe a couple of cool cats will enjoy Board 8 and stick around, but contests aren't enjoyable to me when they divulge into unpreditcable chaos, of which this is an example. It's like Peach beating Link on Monday only for Link to turn around and give her an 80/20 loss on Wednesday. There's no fun in analyzing and discussing pure craziness.
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#265 | ItGetsWorse | Posted 8/20/2013 12:48:47 PM | message detail
I used to confuse Kanz with Kazbar

I wish I was right
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#266 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:49:06 PM | message detail
Fr0zoN posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Who said it was going to be predictable? We don't know that yet. As Ulti likes to quote from Chris Berman, "That's why they play the games". Why be defeatist? Draven just did something we thought absolutely, completely, utterly impossible, for the second time, bigger and better. Lightning has struck twice. At that point, what's a third strike?


Because he doubled Ryu and Mega Man X. COMBINED. That's something I'd take as a legitimate threat to sweep the contest.


That's just it - it's a threat. It's not a gimme, because nobody tried to leverage the same forces that made Draven go on such a tear against Ryu and X. LoL has way more Reddit pull than any other game, but Draven is way weaker than anybody else still in the contest. He starts from a huge hole. You don't need a rally as big as LoL's to overcome him, especially as loyalty to the game decreases when you go up against more and more beloved entrants. That's going to change for Draven/Link for sure, because I'm going to be working on it - and I expect the rest of the board to chime in as well, if they are really so disgusted by the idea of GameFAQS users changing the course of the contest via votes.


Man Draven just seriously got 56,000 votes in a 12 hour NIGHT match against 2 midcarders/near elites. You could rally every Zelda site on the internet, Zelda reddit, 4 chan everything and nothing would make a difference. The contest ended in the last match. Nothing will stand up to that rally.


We'll see. We'll see. I don't promise it will be close, but I'll do what I can to make it interesting. Results suggest Draven is going to win, but results aren't everything. Have faith.
#267 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:50:18 PM | message detail
save.us_LMS
lolololol
#268 | swordz9 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:50:28 PM | message detail
Oh my god is Kanz still pretending Draven hasn't already won without competition? If he's serious I have literally never seen anybody this dense in my life.
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#269 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 12:51:29 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
#270 | NotTerrafire | Posted 8/20/2013 12:51:44 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
And a predictable massacre's any better than that?


Who said it was going to be predictable? We don't know that yet. As Ulti likes to quote from Chris Berman, "That's why they play the games". Why be defeatist? Draven just did something we thought absolutely, completely, utterly impossible, for the second time, bigger and better. Lightning has struck twice. At that point, what's a third strike?


You sound like a deranged cross between Kefka and the Joker. Why the comic-book villain speak?
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#271 | Iamkukuyou | Posted 8/20/2013 12:52:04 PM | message detail
ItGetsWorse posted...
I used to confuse Kanz with Kazbar

I wish I was right


Harsh but i agree with you.
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#272 | VauntX | Posted 8/20/2013 12:52:45 PM | message detail
I wouldn't say he's dense. Just really, really, irritatingly pretentious.

"Don't worry guys, I'm conducting a social media experiment!"

Uh.....huh?
#273 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:54:12 PM | message detail
NotTerrafire posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
And a predictable massacre's any better than that?


Who said it was going to be predictable? We don't know that yet. As Ulti likes to quote from Chris Berman, "That's why they play the games". Why be defeatist? Draven just did something we thought absolutely, completely, utterly impossible, for the second time, bigger and better. Lightning has struck twice. At that point, what's a third strike?


You sound like a deranged cross between Kefka and the Joker. Why the comic-book villain speak?


A comic book villain talking about a miracle happening and encouraging people to hope for it? In that case I'm the best villain ever. I crush people's dreams while earnestly trying to keep them positive!
#274 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:56:14 PM | message detail
If you're one of the naive people who thinks yesterday wasn't mostly votestuffing, you should absolutely think Link has a chance next round.

I mean hell, the Zelda subreddit has 1/4 the subscribers of the League of Legends subreddit. Throw in the nintendo one and the gaming one and the DotA one (for anti-votes) and you have something at least worth considering.

However, when you actually look at the facts and realize that Bacon is lying to you, then it's all pretty hopeless.
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#275 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/20/2013 12:57:08 PM | message detail
Literally the only thing that would see Draven lose is reddit getting ddos'd all day on the day of the match. Even that might not be enough because the rallies would just transition to other LoL outlets.

Link would be near impossible to rally efficiently because of his past dominance of this contest and just because I cant see the Zelda fanbase being anywhere near as much of a hivemind as the LoL fanbase. They probably just dont care as much as the people who spend every waking second thinking about/posting about/playing LoL. It's admirable I guess that they want to support there character but it's a shame that none of that support comes from gamefaqs and instead from somewhere that will never bother to show up to this site for anything other than a Draven match.
#276 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:57:12 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
If you're one of the naive people who thinks yesterday wasn't mostly votestuffing, you should absolutely think Link has a chance next round.

I mean hell, the Zelda subreddit has 1/4 the subscribers of the League of Legends subreddit. Throw in the nintendo one and the gaming one and the DotA one (for anti-votes) and you have something at least worth considering.

However, when you actually look at the facts and realize that Bacon is lying to you, then it's all pretty hopeless.


So here's a scenario for ya: What if the Zelda reddit has votestuffers too?
#277 | tgs2 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:58:05 PM | message detail
Draven will probably 78-22 everything along the way now that it will be 24 hour polls. the top tiers will get 30k votes max with Draven pushing above 110k and that's if there is no split.
#278 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:58:36 PM | message detail
Fr0zoN posted...
Literally the only thing that would see Draven lose is reddit getting ddos'd all day on the day of the match. Even that might not be enough because the rallies would just transition to other LoL outlets.

Link would be near impossible to rally efficiently because of his past dominance of this contest and just because I cant see the Zelda fanbase being anywhere near as much of a hivemind as the LoL fanbase. They probably just dont care as much as the people who spend every waking second thinking about/posting about/playing LoL. It's admirable I guess that they want to support there character but it's a shame that none of that support comes from gamefaqs and instead from somewhere that will never bother to show up to this site for anything other than a Draven match.


This happened.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5175

THIS HAPPENED.

The Zelda fanbse most emphatically does not get to claim they're not drones after that. Both fanbases are rabid as **** and we all know it. It's going to be a hell of an interesting match.
#279 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 12:58:45 PM | message detail
Seems unlikely there would be a passionate enough person to bother there even if they had the means. It has a lot of subscribers but it isn't exactly bustling or anything.
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#280 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:59:13 PM | message detail
shaped like a horse to trample your bracket
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#281 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/20/2013 12:59:34 PM | message detail
so?
the other two are just weak
#282 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/20/2013 1:04:25 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Fr0zoN posted...
Literally the only thing that would see Draven lose is reddit getting ddos'd all day on the day of the match. Even that might not be enough because the rallies would just transition to other LoL outlets.

Link would be near impossible to rally efficiently because of his past dominance of this contest and just because I cant see the Zelda fanbase being anywhere near as much of a hivemind as the LoL fanbase. They probably just dont care as much as the people who spend every waking second thinking about/posting about/playing LoL. It's admirable I guess that they want to support there character but it's a shame that none of that support comes from gamefaqs and instead from somewhere that will never bother to show up to this site for anything other than a Draven match.


This happened.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5175

THIS HAPPENED.

The Zelda fanbse most emphatically does not get to claim they're not drones after that. Both fanbases are rabid as **** and we all know it. It's going to be a hell of an interesting match.


You would have an argument if Epona was as strong as Link. Looking at that shes not even strong and could lose the next round. For a character(yes a horse is a character) that is front and center in Ocarina of Time and Twilight Princess I think that was a pretty poor showing.

I actually think the Zelda fanbase is one of the more choosey ones. The spread of strength between the characters is pretty large compared to most other series like Final Fantasy and Pokemon. If they were rabid you would see friggin Saria, Epona, Ruto etc as near elites. They cant even make a contest.
#283 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 1:05:37 PM | message detail
That's nonsense. Charizard didn't make a contest until 2010. You can't use this argument to say Zelda fans ain't drones, that's faulty and you know it.
#284 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/20/2013 1:06:16 PM | message detail
No main villain aside from Ganondorf makes it into a contest either. And instead of rupee, we have ? Block this year.

Besides, look at what happened to Groose.
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#285 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/20/2013 1:07:01 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
That's nonsense. Charizard didn't make a contest until 2010. You can't use this argument to say Zelda fans ain't drones, that's faulty and you know it.


then why isn't every final Link vs Zelda/Ganondorf
as a matter of fact, those two aren't even near-elites!
#286 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 1:08:23 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
That's nonsense. Charizard didn't make a contest until 2010. You can't use this argument to say Zelda fans ain't drones, that's faulty and you know it.


then why isn't every final Link vs Zelda/Ganondorf
as a matter of fact, those two aren't even near-elites!


Because there are other fanbases on the site besides Nintendo? You have to tap into as many of them as possible, as deeply as possible to be the champion.
#287 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 1:08:58 PM | message detail
People just didn't play Skyward Sword I imagine - but I bet SS would win over a ton of games based on name factor alone. Zelda's pretty dang droney, but this is a red herring - it doesn't matter.

Link gets rallied like crazy every time he loses. Look at Link/Cloud 2k3 and Link/Cloud/L-Block/Snake. It's part of his intrinsic strength.

We already know how Link goes down. It's not enough to even sniff Draven.
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#288 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/20/2013 1:13:10 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
That's nonsense. Charizard didn't make a contest until 2010. You can't use this argument to say Zelda fans ain't drones, that's faulty and you know it.


But they are not drones at all. You have a massive spread of strength

Link

Zelda
Ganon

Midna
Epona

Tingle

Groose lol

Then you have pokemon which is a drone fanbase where I'm sure about 50 pokemon could be near the same base strength level. You have Final Fantasy with tons of characters, most of them with decent strength. I dont want to call Final Fantasy a drone fanbase but the characters definitely have more consistent strength than LoZ can manage. Then you have LoL the ultimate drone fanbase where 1 reddit post can cause 50,000 votes for a character in 12 hours. Zelda just doesn't have rally potential to compete with LoL.
#289 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/20/2013 1:14:50 PM | message detail
So here's a scenario for ya: What if the Zelda reddit has votestuffers too?

Then the contest is just about who can stuff the most votes. That's not interesting at all.
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#290 | Sorozone | Posted 8/20/2013 1:15:04 PM | message detail
The Mana Sword posted...
kanz has always been a joke person are you people just now figuring this out

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#291 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 1:17:17 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
So here's a scenario for ya: What if the Zelda reddit has votestuffers too?

Then the contest is just about who can stuff the most votes. That's not interesting at all.


It sure was interesting during Starcraft's run, Mario/Crono II and tons of other matches! Can't pick 'n choose when it comes to the contests. You take it or you leave it.
#292 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/20/2013 1:17:28 PM | message detail
And yeah, LoZ is just about the least dronish fanbase ever. You'll be very hard pressed to find a series with a bigger drop from the #1 to the #2 character. The dropoff from OOT to MM (not the #2 Zelda game but still a nice comparison) is also huge. It's the same as from Chrono Trigger to Chrono Cross!
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#293 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/20/2013 1:19:45 PM | message detail
We need a Zelda vs Final Fantasy drove face off.

Goron vs Chocobo who wins?
#294 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/20/2013 1:21:01 PM | message detail
drone*
#295 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/20/2013 1:21:36 PM | message detail
It sure was interesting during Starcraft's run, Mario/Crono II and tons of other matches! Can't pick 'n choose when it comes to the contests. You take it or you leave it.

It really wasn't. At the very absolute highest estimates, 10% of the votes in Mario/Crono II were stuffed, and it was probably under 5%. With Starcraft, there was quite possibly no stuffing at all except for the SSBM match (it's not that hard for a big fanbase to rally 2000 votes after all). And even if you think the rallying was completely ineffective and it was all stuffing, you're looking at 3% of the votes being stuffed.

With Draven, you're looking at more than 50% of the votes in the match being stuffed.

Also, Mario/Crono II was a travesty.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#296 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 1:22:33 PM | message detail
I didn't like Mario/Crono II or StarCraft's run. I can understand if you want to call out hypocrisy, especially on the latter since SC was getting to strength it was not even close to deserving on this site - but if you'll notice, neither Mario nor StarCraft won the contest.

I get the feeling this is just more meta-trolling so I'll leave this conversation there.
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#297 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 1:25:00 PM | message detail
No stuffing for Starcraft at all? Yyyyyyyyyeah, that's about as believable as me saying Draven got all of his power from viral youtube comments.
#298 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/20/2013 1:25:36 PM | message detail
What's unbelievable about it? Draven can rally 400 votes in 5 minutes, why can't Starcraft rally 2000 in 6 hours?
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#299 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2013 1:26:20 PM | message detail
Awesome, my Ryu > X pick got me on the Expert Leaderboard! Now I'm on both leaderboards!

Also, I just realized Link could possibly be the only Noble Niner not to make the Final Nine.
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#300 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 1:26:57 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I didn't like Mario/Crono II or StarCraft's run. I can understand if you want to call out hypocrisy, especially on the latter since SC was getting to strength it was not even close to deserving on this site - but if you'll notice, neither Mario nor StarCraft won the contest.

I get the feeling this is just more meta-trolling so I'll leave this conversation there.


It's amazing how people still think I'm trolling them. Guys, do you think I am really keeping up this facade just to fool you? Hate to break this to you, but you're not that important to me. Search 'Ace Attorney' and take a look through my playthrough topics. I'm the same way in all topics, and I'm not making stuff up to rile you. Don't assume I'm arguing on bad faith, because I don't do that to you either.