Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1121

#1 | CarveyFAQs | Posted 8/20/2013 2:53:48 AM | message detail
CarveyFAQs fell off the top of the leaderboard? Contest's Ruined.

Thanks, Obama.


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2013 2:55:01 AM | message detail
Time for Leonhart to make his move to the top...!
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#3 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/20/2013 3:01:53 AM | message detail
Lets just end the contest here. While I'm 5th place and on top of the guru. Just cut our losses with this horrific result before it goes any further!
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#4 | voltch | Posted 8/20/2013 3:02:49 AM | message detail
I never voted Obama
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#5 | PhoenixNine | Posted 8/20/2013 3:18:02 AM | message detail
Draaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaven does it all.

Winning a puny contest with his hands tied behind his back is but a small feat for the amazing Draven.
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~Victory needs no explanation; defeat allows none.~
#6 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/20/2013 6:34:22 AM | message detail
So the Pokemon subreddit is pretty damn big too.

Rally Mewtwo past Vincent and Sonic, we get Draven/Mewtwo/Sephiroth. What's not to love about this?
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#7 | Calintares | Posted 8/20/2013 7:01:13 AM | message detail
Is X on pace to become the most impressive loser? He needs 14795 to pull it off.
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#8 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/20/2013 7:01:54 AM | message detail
The Mana Sword
taking bets on "no stuffing for draven, but x and ryu had a bunch of attempted stuffed votes that were blocked!"

who wants some of this action


you forgot "X/Ryu stuffed at a 2:1 ratio compared to Draven"
#9 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/20/2013 7:03:01 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
The craziest part of all this is you can't blame the low vote totals, Draven would be winning in any year


Maybe in 3-ways, but the likes of Luigi were pulling in 70k in 2k6.
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*shrug*
#10 | The Mana Sword | Posted 8/20/2013 7:03:54 AM | message detail
nintendogirl1 posted...
charmander6000 posted...
The craziest part of all this is you can't blame the low vote totals, Draven would be winning in any year


Maybe in 3-ways, but the likes of Luigi were pulling in 70k in 2k6.


In 24 hours.
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#11 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/20/2013 7:03:58 AM | message detail
Calintares posted...
Is X on pace to become the most impressive loser? He needs 14795 to pull it off.


Yeah - should finish over 15,500 I think.
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*shrug*
#12 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/20/2013 7:04:27 AM | message detail
So, any votes removed yet? Draven's updates slowing down at all?
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#13 | -Tofa7- | Posted 8/20/2013 7:04:50 AM | message detail
Re-posting for new topic:

How the contest will actually end:

- Draven wins this match (obviously)

- Despite the site coming together to stop the Draven rally, Draven destroys Link, and all hopes of anyone else winning the contest die with Link.

- Zelda fans, mourning the loss of Link so early in the contest, make Epona their Link proxy. Epona suddenly beats Snake in Round 3.

- Epona, with the combination of a being a Link proxy and a joke character, storms past Cloud to reach the finals where she faces Draven and Mario.

- Epona, who now has stronger joke votes than L-Block ever did at his peak is also boosted by Mario sacrificing his votes to the horse. Even with all this, it's still not enough to beat Draven in a close match that comes down to the final few hours.

- In the last hour, Epona gets a rally from My Little Pony fans, overtaking Draven to win the contest.

It takes a Zelda joke character with Link revenge/proxy votes, a Mario sacrifice and a brony rally to defeat League of Legends, and it will be amazing.

SHAPED LIKE A HORSE TO TRAMPLE YOUR ASS

EPONA 2013, BELEIVE!

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#14 | MegaWentEvil | Posted 8/20/2013 7:05:03 AM | message detail
I hope Draven burns in hell!
#15 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/20/2013 7:06:05 AM | message detail
MegaWentEvil posted...
I hope Draven burns in hell!


Never change.

Or rather, do change, because I don't like you.
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#16 | Dark Silvergun | Posted 8/20/2013 7:06:17 AM | message detail
Draven hits 50,016 votes.

Round 3 matches are 24 hours, right? Link/Shepard/Draven incoming in Round 3.
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#17 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 8/20/2013 7:07:05 AM | message detail | (edited)
nintendogirl1 posted...
charmander6000 posted...
The craziest part of all this is you can't blame the low vote totals, Draven would be winning in any year


Maybe in 3-ways, but the likes of Luigi were pulling in 70k in 2k6.


In 24 hours.


Oh yeah. That. Welp.
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*shrug*
#18 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/20/2013 7:14:39 AM | message detail | (edited)
charmander6000 posted...
The craziest part of all this is you can't blame the low vote totals, Draven would be winning in any year


Even the least popular match from the 2007 or 2008 contests was able to manage 54173 votes (112815 votes in 24-hours) during the first 12 hours of the match, which was slightly more votes than the average night match vote totals in the 2010 Character Battle. And the 2010 Character Battle had very subpar vote totals compared to 2007 and 2008.

I had calculated the 2010 Character Battle would have only averaged 99721 votes if you adjusted the vote totals for every match to a 24-hour time period. That is a far cry from 2007 and 2008, with both contests averaging over 134000 votes per match.

As for how that relates to this match. If this match happened back in 2007 or 2008, the match would have gotten at least 60000 votes (without any rallies) in a 12-hour night match and Draven has over 40000 rallied votes, easily enough for him to win the match with the much higher vote totals of 2007 and 2008.
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#19 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 7:13:06 AM | message detail
That's it,I decided all bets are off
After Vincent/Mewtwo(which I won't be home in the time of the match) im going to rally every Pokemon character...in the entire Internet
Im damn serious
Like it or not but Pokemon is currently the most discussed video game franchise in the world
It's so big that even 4chan created a board just for it
Im going to rally in facebook (most popular fan pages and official Nintendo pages),Youtube (most active Pokemon channels and popular videos...and if a XY trailer is being released it will be a huge boost)
Serebii,Bulbapedia,Pokejungle,Pokebeach,Marilland,Smogon and some japanese Pokemon forums I can find
And of course,/vp/ (/v/ might prove to backstab) and the Pokemon reddit

What I need though,is for people to actually thumb up my posts (facebook,Youtube and reddit) so they can reach the front page and stay there
Yeah im going to do it
I won't let Draven win this,Link can die for all I care but I WILL STOP DRAVEN
#20 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/20/2013 7:15:23 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
That's it,I decided all bets are off
After Vincent/Mewtwo(which I won't be home in the time of the match) im going to rally every Pokemon character...in the entire Internet
Im damn serious
Like it or not but Pokemon is currently the most discussed video game franchise in the world
It's so big that even 4chan created a board just for it
Im going to rally in facebook (most popular fan pages and official Nintendo pages),Youtube (most active Pokemon channels and popular videos...and if a XY trailer is being released it will be a huge boost)
Serebii,Bulbapedia,Pokejungle,Pokebeach,Marilland,Smogon and some japanese Pokemon forums I can find
And of course,/vp/ (/v/ might prove to backstab) and the Pokemon reddit

What I need though,is for people to actually thumb up my posts (facebook,Youtube and reddit) so they can reach the front page and stay there
Yeah im going to do it
I won't let Draven win this,Link can die for all I care but I WILL STOP DRAVEN


You don't get it. If we don't stop him with Link, we won't stop him at all.
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#21 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 7:20:14 AM | message detail
There is hardly a place to rally for Link though
There isn't too much to talk about Zelda and the forums of LoZ fansites are pretty much dead
The only upcoming Zelda games are WW HD (port) and LttP sequal (handheld)
It's much easier to rally a pokemon character
#22 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/20/2013 7:27:24 AM | message detail
Match LXXXV: (1) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. (13) Dracula vs. (10) Barret Wallace

Previous Round

Sonic the Hedgehog – 66.30%
Fei Fong Wong – 20.17%
Dan Hibiki – 13.53%

Dracula – 58.63%
Lucina – 34.69%
Caim – 6.69%

Barret Wallace – 50.02%
Professor Layton – 31.19%
Reimu Hakurei – 18.79%

Analysis

Sonic the Hedgehog looked good last round, outperforming Mario against Fei Fong Wong, though Mario was LFF in that match. Combine that with Vincent’s showing and he is easily the favourite to win the division right now. Sonic also has another opportunity to score another blowout provided everything from round 1 remains the same.

It is funny how a single round can change the perception of a character. Before this contest most people expected Barret to be closer to Sonic, but now they are debating whether or not he can win over Dracula. Barret’s performance on Layton was quite terrible, even Isaac was able to perform better against him. Only way you can defend Barret is bringing Final Fantasy VII anti-votes into this, we have seen it before and if true Barret should look better. There is also reason for Layton to be stronger; the character gets a game almost every year now.

While Dracula looked good last round I am not convinced that he has strength as he crushed a couple of unknowns. His performance on Lucina was similar to The Boss’ performance against Chrom and I would expect Chrom to be stronger than Lucina, if not Lucina is probably not too much stronger. Regardless this does not place Dracula on a high position. Of course if Barret does not recover from his poor showing last round it will be enough to take second.

I am going to get that Barret will recover from his terrible performance in round 1 and be able to win over Dracula. Final Fantasy VII underperforming in the first round has happened before and it could happen again. I know a lot of people thought Dracula would be as strong, if not stronger than Alucard, but his first round performance did not show that to be true, as much as a first round performance against two unknowns can show.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sonic the Hedgehog > Barret Wallace and Dracula

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog – 49.56%, Barret Wallace – 26.45%, Dracula – 23.99%
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#23 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/20/2013 7:27:25 AM | message detail
After reading some of the post on reddit, it looks like more people voted just because people were raging on this board. Black Turtle was quoted quite a few times.
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#24 | swordz9 | Posted 8/20/2013 7:28:53 AM | message detail
Well it doesn't look like Draven slowed down at all and currently has more votes by himself than any poll in this contest has had. As if his victory wasn't confirmed early last night there's literally no doubt now.
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#25 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/20/2013 7:30:20 AM | message detail
lightsout06 posted...
After reading some of the post on reddit, it looks like more people voted just because people were raging on this board. Black Turtle was quoted quite a few times.


as if they wouldn't have voted for Draven otherwise?

also, ATTN EVERYONE:
go back to the Crono/Missingno match from 2010
notice the ratio that SBAllen claimed was stuffed? 2:1 for Crono
now go to Tidus/Missingno......2:1 for Tidus
yeah, if this doesn't show he's BSing these "anti-stuffing" measures and doesn't actually care, then I don't know what to tell you
#26 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/20/2013 7:30:41 AM | message detail
Do you guys think that todays match will result in higher votals for other matches? Like I could see the Sonic match next being around 40,000 votes.

Or do you think it will just go back to normal?
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#27 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/20/2013 7:31:40 AM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
go back to the Crono/Missingno match from 2010
notice the ratio that SBAllen claimed was stuffed? 2:1 for Crono


Wait, what? I don't remember SB even commenting on stuffing until Touhou
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#28 | swordz9 | Posted 8/20/2013 7:31:48 AM | message detail
eaglesarebeasts posted...
Do you guys think that todays match will result in higher votals for other matches?

Nope. They didn't stick around after Draven's match in R1 so no reason to do so in R2. It's literally just a massive flood for Draven and then they disappear without a care.
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#29 | IloveYoda | Posted 8/20/2013 7:32:11 AM | message detail
This could be a stupid idea, but how about rallying for Link on r/dota2 to get anti-votes going against Draven? From my experience, Dota 2 players don't care much for LoL.
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#30 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/20/2013 7:32:29 AM | message detail
In the day match right after Draven's round 1 match, there was no evidence of increased vote totals for that match. However, this rally is much larger than the round 1 rally, plus this match is generating a lot of traffic to Board 8. So I guess it's possible we could see higher vote totals in the next match.
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#31 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/20/2013 7:32:37 AM | message detail
If it goes back to normal like in round 1, their was some kind of cheating going on.
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#32 | abdou | Posted 8/20/2013 7:34:46 AM | message detail
Allen is full of BS. He also wants LoL to be big on this site, he even posted on the LoL board here asking people to create faqs and wiki and stuff for it. He will be absolutely thrilled with this "rally" . I am fully expecting him to come and say there was zero stuffing for Draven
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#33 | StarStormScream | Posted 8/20/2013 7:36:46 AM | message detail
eaglesarebeasts posted...
Do you guys think that todays match will result in higher votals for other matches? Like I could see the Sonic match next being around 40,000 votes.


HA, unlikely. Watch the next poll struggle to break 35k
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#34 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/20/2013 7:37:21 AM | message detail
Would be funny if the next poll gets even less than the Aeris and Shepard match
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#35 | iiTryhard | Posted 8/20/2013 7:37:35 AM | message detail
IloveYoda posted...
This could be a stupid idea, but how about rallying for Link on r/dota2 to get anti-votes going against Draven? From my experience, Dota 2 players don't care much for LoL.


If you want to take down Draven, listen to this guy. Most DoTA 2 players have nothing better to do than sit around all day and bash LoL for being "less 3l1t3" since it doesn't have archaic mechanics like turn speed. They are all so buttmad that their game isn't popular they would go crazy over this
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#36 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/20/2013 7:37:40 AM | message detail
eaglesarebeasts posted...
Do you guys think that todays match will result in higher votals for other matches? Like I could see the Sonic match next being around 40,000 votes.

Or do you think it will just go back to normal?


I think the next poll's gonna have the same low votals the rest of the contest had up to this point...
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#37 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 7:40:30 AM | message detail
IloveYoda posted...
This could be a stupid idea, but how about rallying for Link on r/dota2 to get anti-votes going against Draven? From my experience, Dota 2 players don't care much for LoL.


This is the most effecient way to rally for Link
The only effective one tbh
#38 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/20/2013 7:43:41 AM | message detail
Do Dota 2 fans really hate LoL that much that they'd buy into an anti-Draven rally just to upset LoL fanboys?

I mean I see how BT feels but he's usually the exception.
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#39 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 7:44:57 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Do Dota 2 fans really hate LoL that much that they'd buy into an anti-Draven rally just to upset LoL fanboys?

I mean I see how BT feels but he's usually the exception.


Yes,they do
#40 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/20/2013 7:47:14 AM | message detail
Are there enough of them that would care? I mean anything will help, but this could be another thing we have in our rally arsenal.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#41 | yoyoyoyrlozer | Posted 8/20/2013 7:47:22 AM | message detail
eaglesarebeasts posted...
Do you guys think that todays match will result in higher votals for other matches? Like I could see the Sonic match next being around 40,000 votes.

Or do you think it will just go back to normal?


I'd say probably 99% of the people who voted for Draven are never going to come back until his next round, and there will probably be a bunch of butthurt Gamefaqs users who just leave or stop voting because of this, so I'd predict the same or even lower votals.
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#42 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 7:52:36 AM | message detail
I don't know how much is Dota 2 being discussed
We can throw a link to the poll in one of cyborgmatt.com updates,or the official Dota 2 forum (but again I don't know how popular it is)
HoN forums can help a little,too (only by about 500 anti votes max though)
#43 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/20/2013 7:54:02 AM | message detail
We're going to need every advantage we can get.

That means the picsmiths need to help out. Give Shepard FemShep pic. Give Draven the worst pic possible. Give Link OoT art.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#44 | spooky96 | Posted 8/20/2013 7:54:38 AM | message detail
The only thing which can save us now is Reddit being down for a day for maintenance after 11 or 12 days from now.
#45 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/20/2013 7:56:00 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
The only thing which can save us now is Reddit being down for a day for maintenance after 11 or 12 days from now.


Oh that would be hilarious. He would come in third.
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#46 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 8:00:09 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
We're going to need every advantage we can get.

That means the picsmiths need to help out. Give Shepard FemShep pic. Give Draven the worst pic possible. Give Link OoT art.


I don't think Draven can look worse than this picture


Time to hire some hackers to DDos reddit on the Link/Draven match day! (Im joking)
#47 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/20/2013 8:01:18 AM | message detail
eaglesarebeasts posted...
spooky96 posted...
The only thing which can save us now is Reddit being down for a day for maintenance after 11 or 12 days from now.


Oh that would be hilarious. He would come in third.


Im afraid to know what would happen to the xstats
#48 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 8:03:47 AM | message detail
Barret/Dracula has me scared now. Why couldn't this just be a nice, easy Barret victory?
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#49 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2013 8:18:07 AM | message detail
Hey, Ryu did a really nice recovery on MMX after the peak of the destruction! Looks like the rally runoff was favoring X lol

Ryu breaking 40% on a quasi-Noble again, what a trooper
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#50 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 8/20/2013 8:20:04 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
We're going to need every advantage we can get.

That means the picsmiths need to help out. Give Shepard FemShep pic. Give Draven the worst pic possible. Give Link OoT art.


Isn't the next round Sprite Round?