Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1120

#301 | voltch | Posted 8/20/2013 2:23:44 AM | message detail
sounds like a setup for an anti-rally next round.
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#302 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:23:50 AM | message detail
voltch posted...
so are 4chan buddies with Reddit?


4chan is Reddit's older, less successful brother. 4chan used to be the place to go rally because it could influence other sites. What Draven has proved is that we don't need it - if anything 4chan has diluted rallying power before by being made up of incompetent trolling buffoons and we should just rally at the biggest sites possible ourselves.
#303 | voltch | Posted 8/20/2013 2:25:04 AM | message detail
Man imagine if Morde had been in this contest. He'd finally be Numero Uno with 97% of the south american vote.
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#304 | Xuxon | Posted 8/20/2013 2:25:29 AM | message detail
what's weird is that if we still had 2007 votals, Link might have a shot. he'd have to be getting what, 80k at least, and that's if Shep wasn't fodderized to hell.
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#305 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:25:44 AM | message detail
voltch posted...
Man imagine if Morde had been in this contest. He'd finally be Numero Uno with 97% of the south american vote.


97%? I would be disgusted if Brazil didn't 100% for Mordekaiser every single match.
#306 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/20/2013 2:26:00 AM | message detail
reddit is moreso the evolution of 4chan, its got just as many crazy mother ****ers with nothing better to do, but is much, much more popular in the grand scheme of the internet picture right now
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#307 | Zinganger | Posted 8/20/2013 2:26:46 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
voltch posted...
so are 4chan buddies with Reddit?


4chan is Reddit's older, less successful brother. 4chan used to be the place to go rally because it could influence other sites. What Draven has proved is that we don't need it - if anything 4chan has diluted rallying power before by being made up of incompetent trolling buffoons and we should just rally at the biggest sites possible ourselves.


Pretty much this.

The only community that could quite compare is 2ch. 4chan and Reddit's older, foreign, extremely successful cousin.

While it's possible trying to get them to act as a collective in rallying... good luck with that.
#308 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/20/2013 2:26:52 AM | message detail
No way this is legit. The rally isn't doing that well. A huge percentage of people who saw the rally would have to vote in order for this to be real.
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#309 | jacko_vdz | Posted 8/20/2013 2:27:41 AM | message detail | (edited)
Ahahahaha just saw the Reddit thread.

Luster's comment thread is so damn good.

"Yeah I totally agree with this Luster guy, B8 is such a circle jerk. They're all so butthurt"

So good!
#310 | voltch | Posted 8/20/2013 2:27:26 AM | message detail
So basically it sounds like when one character's being rallied, people might be bothered, but not bothered enough to rally back.
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#311 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 2:28:36 AM | message detail
You know, I'm not sure the board really is all that upset!

It felt more upset over Tidus/Missingno! This feels pretty weak in comparison to the times the board has truly been upset. Mario/Crono II was downright legendary.
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#312 | Zinganger | Posted 8/20/2013 2:29:53 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
No way this is legit. The rally isn't doing that well. A huge percentage of people who saw the rally would have to vote in order for this to be real.


On the one hand, this could absolutely be true.

On the other hand, look at the voting map.

Where's the origin of the stuffed votes?
#313 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/20/2013 2:30:21 AM | message detail
80% update for Draven.
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#314 | StealThisSheen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:30:24 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
No way this is legit. The rally isn't doing that well. A huge percentage of people who saw the rally would have to vote in order for this to be real.


Didn't somebody say that subreddit has over 300k users.

It'd actually be a pretty small percentage.
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#315 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:31:09 AM | message detail
jacko_vdz posted...
Ahahahaha just saw the Reddit thread.

Luster's comment thread is so damn good.

"Yeah I totally agree with this Luster guy, B8 is such a circle jerk. They're all so butthurt"

So good!


Luster for best Tweener in the business, needs a medal.
#316 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/20/2013 2:33:04 AM | message detail
It helps that you just need to click the link then click Draven to vote. Takes less than five seconds.
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#317 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/20/2013 2:33:06 AM | message detail
StealThisSheen posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
No way this is legit. The rally isn't doing that well. A huge percentage of people who saw the rally would have to vote in order for this to be real.


Didn't somebody say that subreddit has over 300k users.

It'd actually be a pretty small percentage.

Do you think ~10% of the subreddit looked at it between midnight EST and now and then followed through and voted?
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#318 | StealThisSheen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:34:34 AM | message detail
LordoftheMorons posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
No way this is legit. The rally isn't doing that well. A huge percentage of people who saw the rally would have to vote in order for this to be real.


Didn't somebody say that subreddit has over 300k users.

It'd actually be a pretty small percentage.

Do you think ~10% of the subreddit looked at it between midnight EST and now and then followed through and voted?


Considering LoL was down during that time, so they couldn't be playing? I can't say "no" with any certainty.
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#319 | Zinganger | Posted 8/20/2013 2:34:59 AM | message detail
LordoftheMorons posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
No way this is legit. The rally isn't doing that well. A huge percentage of people who saw the rally would have to vote in order for this to be real.


Didn't somebody say that subreddit has over 300k users.

It'd actually be a pretty small percentage.

Do you think ~10% of the subreddit looked at it between midnight EST and now and then followed through and voted?


There's also the fact that LoL was/is down tonight.

10 Mil+ players daily.

300,000+ at any given time.

What else are they going to do?
#320 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/20/2013 2:35:17 AM | message detail
StealThisSheen posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
No way this is legit. The rally isn't doing that well. A huge percentage of people who saw the rally would have to vote in order for this to be real.


Didn't somebody say that subreddit has over 300k users.

It'd actually be a pretty small percentage.

10% is not small, when you consider that this is TOTAL users. Only a few thousand are on at a time. How many users does GameFAQs have? Far more than vote in the polls every day.

Anyway, geo trends don't have to be hilariously skewed for there to be stuffing. Just poorly disguised stuffing. Allen should investigate this.
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#321 | voltch | Posted 8/20/2013 2:36:05 AM | message detail
does the 10mil include the asians?

I'm sure the cheeky chinese fellas are making a difference today!
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#322 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:37:01 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
No way this is legit. The rally isn't doing that well. A huge percentage of people who saw the rally would have to vote in order for this to be real.


Didn't somebody say that subreddit has over 300k users.

It'd actually be a pretty small percentage.

10% is not small, when you consider that this is TOTAL users. Only a few thousand are on at a time. How many users does GameFAQs have? Far more than vote in the polls every day.

Anyway, geo trends don't have to be hilariously skewed for there to be stuffing. Just poorly disguised stuffing. Allen should investigate this.


You forget that this wasn't even a LoL affair an hour in. The topic got so many upvotes it was in the global Reddit Top 10, in other words all of Reddit saw it.
#323 | jacko_vdz | Posted 8/20/2013 2:37:50 AM | message detail
LordoftheMorons posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
No way this is legit. The rally isn't doing that well. A huge percentage of people who saw the rally would have to vote in order for this to be real.


Didn't somebody say that subreddit has over 300k users.

It'd actually be a pretty small percentage.

Do you think ~10% of the subreddit looked at it between midnight EST and now and then followed through and voted?


Iubaris said that the post was sitting at #5 on the frontpage at some point. I didn't see it myself, but posts on the frontpage of reddit are known to crash servers.
#324 | StealThisSheen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:38:50 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
No way this is legit. The rally isn't doing that well. A huge percentage of people who saw the rally would have to vote in order for this to be real.


Didn't somebody say that subreddit has over 300k users.

It'd actually be a pretty small percentage.

10% is not small, when you consider that this is TOTAL users. Only a few thousand are on at a time. How many users does GameFAQs have? Far more than vote in the polls every day.

Anyway, geo trends don't have to be hilariously skewed for there to be stuffing. Just poorly disguised stuffing. Allen should investigate this.


Actually, yeah they do, if you are stuffing in any worthwhile amount. When stuffing, the votes still have to come from SOMEWHERE. It'd take a lot of time and effort to come up with a way to stuff THIS evenly. You'd have to find proxies from literally EVERYWHERE, then make sure they were being used at even intervals so nothing stuck out as inconsistent. At the pace the votes are coming in, that seems very unlikely.
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#325 | StealThisSheen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:40:30 AM | message detail
Oh, yeah. If it was literally on the front page of reddit for any amount of time, that meant millions of people saw it. That makes the percentage almost negligible.
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#326 | snoocete | Posted 8/20/2013 2:41:24 AM | message detail
Hi contest stats topic.

*posts for the first time in half a decade*

KanzarisKelshen posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
No way this is legit. The rally isn't doing that well. A huge percentage of people who saw the rally would have to vote in order for this to be real.


Didn't somebody say that subreddit has over 300k users.

It'd actually be a pretty small percentage.

10% is not small, when you consider that this is TOTAL users. Only a few thousand are on at a time. How many users does GameFAQs have? Far more than vote in the polls every day.

Anyway, geo trends don't have to be hilariously skewed for there to be stuffing. Just poorly disguised stuffing. Allen should investigate this.


You forget that this wasn't even a LoL affair an hour in. The topic got so many upvotes it was in the global Reddit Top 10, in other words all of Reddit saw it.


Only if they read /r/all.

/r/leagueoflegends isn't one of the default subreddits so no matter how many upvotes it gets it would never appear on the reddit frontpage.
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#327 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 2:41:31 AM | message detail
Wouldn't that dilute the rally though? I mean, in theory wouldn't we expect MMX/Ryu to perform better with a global audience than with a LoL one?
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#328 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 8/20/2013 2:41:43 AM | message detail
it was on the frontpage of r/all. Unless you went to that specifically or are subscribed to the subreddit, you wouldn't have seen it.
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#329 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2013 2:42:23 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
I don't know!

But then I'm of the belief that L-Block and its rally were responsible for 2008 sticking with the same format to try and get a repeat performance so I half expect Bacon to keep this up for at least one more try to see what happens.

I mean, if he cared what we thought the last few contests would have been structured differently!


I think he stuck with 4-ways because L-Block gave the impression that Link was beatable under normal circumstances in that format, but L-Block (and consequently Draven) are not normal circumstances, so hopefully he's learned his lesson this time and won't stubbornly stick with this format for two more contests.
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#330 | Singerton | Posted 8/20/2013 2:42:38 AM | message detail
LoL down during the poll. (12 Mil players)
#1 thread on subreddit (300,000 subscribers)
Front page'd reddit (@ least #5)
Geologically distributed votes during all updates.

This isn't quite on par with Mario winning during SunshineFAQs, but it's pretty close.
#331 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:43:45 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure some redditor would have a use for a tool to make proxies appear to come from literally EVERYWHERE. It's not really that strange to think that that's feasible. Probably once used to do a DOS attack or something.

Also the thing about putting a lot of weight on the frontpage exposure is that if that was a big deal you'd expect the votes to spike AT THAT MOMENT and they didn't really. Votes have been coming at a pretty steady clip. That's the suspicious part more than anything. There's no real variance in it like you'd expect given natural rally conditions.
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#332 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 2:44:00 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
xp1337 posted...
I don't know!

But then I'm of the belief that L-Block and its rally were responsible for 2008 sticking with the same format to try and get a repeat performance so I half expect Bacon to keep this up for at least one more try to see what happens.

I mean, if he cared what we thought the last few contests would have been structured differently!


I think he stuck with 4-ways because L-Block gave the impression that Link was beatable under normal circumstances in that format, but L-Block (and consequently Draven) are not normal circumstances, so hopefully he's learned his lesson this time and won't stubbornly stick with this format for two more contests.

But the genius here is if Draven beats Link we won't know if that's true!

Link/Snake/Mario and Link/Cloud/Mario remain debatable matches!
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#333 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/20/2013 2:44:22 AM | message detail
Also, for reference the rally has about 1800 upvotes, and about 800 downvotes. First, that would mean that only 6% of people who voted in the rally upvoted it. Second, half as many people downvoted it, meaning they oppose the rally. So of the people who DO see the rally, maybe 2/3 are voting Draven. And the idea of 10% of a site's subscribers seeing this in a few hours is already pretty sketchy.

Even the geotrends seem odd, because I'm pretty sure LoL is very skewed in some areas popularity-wise. This one is tinfoil hat time, but I think someone may be trying to cover their tracks a bit too hard.
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#334 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/20/2013 2:45:37 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
Also, for reference the rally has about 1800 upvotes, and about 800 downvotes. First, that would mean that only 6% of people who voted in the rally upvoted it. Second, half as many people downvoted it, meaning they oppose the rally. So of the people who DO see the rally, maybe 2/3 are voting Draven. And the idea of 10% of a site's subscribers seeing this in a few hours is already pretty sketchy.


You don't need to be logged into an Reddit account to view the LoL subreddit. There are also thousands of unregistered users who are viewing the LoL subreddit and voting in this match.
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#335 | voltch | Posted 8/20/2013 2:45:50 AM | message detail
George Romero makes his grand return
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#336 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2013 2:47:02 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
You know, I'm not sure the board really is all that upset!


It's probably not, but any time you don't support someone else's idea of a good time, you're upset. That's just how it works!
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#337 | StealThisSheen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:47:28 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I'm pretty sure some redditor would have a use for a tool to make proxies appear to come from literally EVERYWHERE. It's not really that strange to think that that's feasible. Probably once used to do a DOS attack or something.


You're getting really conspiracy theorist, here. You wouldn't need proxies to come from EVERYWHERE for a DDOS attack. You only need number for those, not location. I can't think of anything that such a tool would be needed for, nor could I imagine such a tool working so well without putting a loooooooot of work into it, since... How do you tell it to vote X amount more in America than a smaller country, while still having it vote randomly AND consistently... And then WHY would you? With no real application for such a program, there'd be no reason to make something that'd take such an effort.

What you're suggesting is that they made such a program for THIS only, and in... Thirty minutes?
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#338 | xp1337 | Posted 8/20/2013 2:47:38 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
xp1337 posted...
You know, I'm not sure the board really is all that upset!


It's probably not, but any time you don't support someone else's idea of a good time, you're upset. That's just how it works!

Oh, I know.

But it shouldn't be that way. =(
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#339 | Swarles_Barkley | Posted 8/20/2013 2:48:28 AM | message detail
I'm sure this is largely legit from Draven. Who would bother stuffing so meticulously when you have a 24000 vote lead? Who is this IT prodigy that succeeds in stuffing on a level no one has ever gotten close to?


I'm very curious to see the vote totals for next match, if it's all rallying the next match should have very nice vote totals; the contest will have caught the interest of a set % of rallied voters.
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#340 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/20/2013 2:48:55 AM | message detail | (edited)
Is it really feasible to even find this many proxies or whatever to stuff this much votes though? I don't know, I don't even see how it would be possible for this to be an illegitimate result.
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#341 | voltch | Posted 8/20/2013 2:48:44 AM | message detail
I woulda voted for Anivia.
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#342 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:48:47 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
Also, for reference the rally has about 1800 upvotes, and about 800 downvotes. First, that would mean that only 6% of people who voted in the rally upvoted it. Second, half as many people downvoted it, meaning they oppose the rally. So of the people who DO see the rally, maybe 2/3 are voting Draven. And the idea of 10% of a site's subscribers seeing this in a few hours is already pretty sketchy.

Even the geotrends seem odd, because I'm pretty sure LoL is very skewed in some areas popularity-wise. This one is tinfoil hat time, but I think someone may be trying to cover their tracks a bit too hard.


Those vote totals are misleading. At any point in time when it mattered, the topic had 75%+ upvotes relative to total votes. I should know, I was the first comment and watched it like a hawk.
#343 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2013 2:49:04 AM | message detail
The real conspiracy theory is why SEP suddenly shows up in the Stats Topic on today of all days

Mysteries abound
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#344 | Lopen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:49:23 AM | message detail
With the next half hour we're back to the old trend of lowered extra votes crushing Ryu/MMX's percentage of the pie again, so "blip" seems the likely explanation.

5:05-5:35:
Total vote intake: 2864
Yesterday's intake: 691
Extra votes: 2173
Draven's "extra" votes: 2062 (103 GameFAQs votes approximated)
Ryu + MMX's "extra" votes: 111
Ryu + MMX's percentage of rallied without adjustment/250/300 per 5: 5.1%/16.4%/29.7%
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#345 | StealThisSheen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:50:05 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
The real conspiracy theory is why SEP suddenly shows up in the Stats Topic on today of all days

Mysteries abound


I meant to show up and vote Team Nightmare for his match but I was this late.
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#346 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/20/2013 2:50:39 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
Also, for reference the rally has about 1800 upvotes, and about 800 downvotes. First, that would mean that only 6% of people who voted in the rally upvoted it. Second, half as many people downvoted it, meaning they oppose the rally. So of the people who DO see the rally, maybe 2/3 are voting Draven. And the idea of 10% of a site's subscribers seeing this in a few hours is already pretty sketchy.


You don't need to be logged into an Reddit account to view the LoL subreddit. There are also thousands of unregistered users who are viewing the LoL subreddit and voting in this match.


And yet they are likely a minority. The people looking at the reddit are going to subscribe, if they do it regularly. And again,the percentage is too big. With a 67% turnover rate, the LoL subreddit would have to be getting well over GameFAQs level traffic. That is absurd.
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#347 | voltch | Posted 8/20/2013 2:51:53 AM | message detail
Gamefaqs is no longer popular man!
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#348 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/20/2013 2:52:55 AM | message detail
Although I suppose if there's one good thing about Draven winning, it means my Ryu > MMX pick won't drop me off the leaderboard the day after I make it.

And because I was stubborn enough to stick with Ryu in Expert as well (although it was partially to hedge my bets against this very result), I'll be slightly better off than the people who stuck with X > Ryu > Draven

Should've just no picked, but whatever.
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#349 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/20/2013 2:53:07 AM | message detail
Kanz, there isn't really that much of a difference between 75 and 67.

Really doubting this, would at least like Allen to comment.
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#350 | StealThisSheen | Posted 8/20/2013 2:53:12 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
Also, for reference the rally has about 1800 upvotes, and about 800 downvotes. First, that would mean that only 6% of people who voted in the rally upvoted it. Second, half as many people downvoted it, meaning they oppose the rally. So of the people who DO see the rally, maybe 2/3 are voting Draven. And the idea of 10% of a site's subscribers seeing this in a few hours is already pretty sketchy.


You don't need to be logged into an Reddit account to view the LoL subreddit. There are also thousands of unregistered users who are viewing the LoL subreddit and voting in this match.


And yet they are likely a minority. The people looking at the reddit are going to subscribe, if they do it regularly. And again,the percentage is too big. With a 67% turnover rate, the LoL subreddit would have to be getting well over GameFAQs level traffic. That is absurd.


You think it's likely that the majority of people are the ones up/downvoting and commenting? That's kind of silly. Especially with the game down, it doesn't seem that implausible that a ton of people, subscribed and not, are viewing the reddit.
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